The Twins Finally Picked a Lane

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Complete rebuild.  No, they need to rebuild their BP.  The starting pitching is incredibly deep with Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Matthews / Bradley / Festa / Abel and SWR already at the ML level and Rojas / Morris / Prelipp / Culpepper and Raya not far off.

The only change in the INF is Correa and his current level of production will not be hard to replace.  He is already becoming suspect at SS.  We will be far better off with Culpepper at SS and $66m to spend extending some of this young talent.  Lewis is finally hitting and Keaschall takes over 2B.  Add someone who can play 1B and the INF looks considerably better at this time next year. 

Where the OF is concerned we have the same OF as yesterday with several potential upgrades that should be ready next year in the form of Jenkins / GG / Rodriguez.  Outman has produced at the ML level so it's realistic to believe he can again and Roden hit at every level.  Martin looks like he could be a great utility guy.  That's a lot of OF depth.   

They do have a lot of work to do in the BP but it'd not what I think of in terms of a total rebuild.   It could become one if they trade a couple of their established starters this winter.  My bet is they trade one of Pablo / Ryan/Ober given the number of starters they have now.  

Why did they trade for three OF if they believe in ERod and Jenkins? I didn't get that. 

[P Meyer]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They could have just dfa'd him. 

If that meant the Pohlads had to pay him to not be part of the team, I don't think they viewed that as an option.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

When is the Falvey-Baldelli press conference?

[Steve Lein]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

A tradesman friend of mine often says "You can have a project done fast, you can have it done inexpensively, and you can have it done well, but you can't have all three, and often you have to choose just one."

Well, we know the Twins FO acted very fast yesterday afternoon...

And we know they cut a lot of money off of payroll...

Hm, wonder what they left out?

In my corporate R&D world, it's "you can make a good product, get it to market fast, or make it cheap. If you want it fast, it won't be good or cheap. If you want it cheap, it won't be good. If you want it good, it definitely won't be fast."

I'm with you 100% on this one.
 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

If that meant the Pohlads had to pay him to not be part of the team, I don't think they viewed that as an option.

France's contract was never guaranteed this year. And he is set to make about 300k the rest of the year if he is on the roster. 

If he were making 10 million I could understand this. But this doesn't pass the smell test for me.

[Nashvilletwin]

57 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

There is zero chance the Twins are winning in 2027. None. Particularly after Lopez and probably Ryan are dealt this winter. 

I know you like to play the  contrarian but this just makes you look foolish.

None more foolish than the idea quality bullpen are just waiting out there any time you need one.

There won’t be any baseball in ‘27……lockout probability is nearly 100%.  The small/mid size owners will go to the mat for a hard cap.  Chaos is on the way.  ‘27 would be a good year to spend abroad or finding a new hobby.

These actions might have as much to do with that as anything.  

[P Meyer]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Yeah, France actually has a little bit of value to the Blue Jays. Their roster is really thin offensively and a veteran bat, albeit a weak one, provides SOME value to them. 

So including Varland, a player they didn't need to trade, in that deal and getting IMO an underwhelming return was coincidence?

 

I guess if you think the Twins traded Varland for equitable value and France brought value back, it makes sense. Just trying to see it from your perspective.

[BillyBallLives]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

  Falvey's record on first round draft choices alone is abysmal.

Here are Falvey's 1st and 2nd round picks. I will let the reader decide, but not a lot to get excited about from what I see.  To really know, one would have to dig into the other 29 GM's picks and see who knows what they are doing. 

Even Falvey's picks currently in MLB are not high level impact players. Hopefully that happens with Lewis and Lee. 

2017
Royce Lewis - MLB
Landon Leach - Bust

2018
Trevor Larnach - MLB
Ryan Jeffers - MLB

2019
Keoni Cavaco - Bust
Matt Canterino - not much better

2020
Aaron Sabato -  Not advancing
Alerick Soularie - struggling in minors

2021
Chase Petty - Traded to Reds
Steve Hajjar - Traded to Reds

2022
Brooks Lee - MLB
Connor Prielipp -  arm issues

2023
Walker Jenkins - ?
Charlee Soto - ?

2024
Kaelen Culpepper - Looking good, moving up the ladder. 
Kyle DeBarge

[P Meyer]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

France's contract was never guaranteed this year. And he is set to make about 300k the rest of the year if he is on the roster. 

If he were making 10 million I could understand this. But this doesn't pass the smell test for me.

are you saying Spotrac is wrong?

 

Ty France signed a 1 year, $1,000,000 contract with the Minnesota Twins, including $1,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $1,000,000. In 2025, France will earn a base salary of $1,000,000, while carrying a total salary of $1,000,000. France's adjusted salary with the Minnesota Twins is $317,184

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, P Meyer said:

are you saying Spotrac is wrong?

 

Ty France signed a 1 year, $1,000,000 contract with the Minnesota Twins, including $1,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $1,000,000. In 2025, France will earn a base salary of $1,000,000, while carrying a total salary of $1,000,000. France's adjusted salary with the Minnesota Twins is $317,184

I'm only saying that's enough of an argument to HAVE to trade away Varland.

And then why take on Outman? And keep Larnach? Both make more than Varland and France's remaining dollars this year anyway.

[Major League Ready]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why did they trade for three OF if they believe in ERod and Jenkins? I didn't get that. 

I had a similar reaction.  My thought was why all these OFers when we already have good OF prospects that are relatively close.  As I thought about it ... I think they are quite confident in Jenkins but that's just one guy.  They need four OFers.  They can trade from depth if they are so fortunate as to end up with more than they need.  By this time next year I see Buck & Jenkins and the competition for the 3rd and 4th OFer roles starts tonight.  I would think one of them is either Rodriguez or Outman because they need a back-up CFer which probably explains why they are taking a shot at Outman.  

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

So including Varland, a player they didn't need to trade, in that deal and getting IMO an underwhelming return was coincidence?

 

I guess if you think the Twins traded Varland for equitable value and France brought value back, it makes sense. Just trying to see it from your perspective.

Well, France was the player that didn't need to be a part of that deal. Blue Jays just probably asked for him as a little treat. 

This was Varland in return for a very good pitching prospect and a pretty interesting LF (that I instantly like more than Larnach). 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

It's concerning for sure...could one explanation be that the buyer WON'T absorb the debt, or not all of it, so the Pohlads have been forced to cut costs to offset some of it?  

Most buyers buy teams to make money hand over fist, not to win games. This is standard in business: you don't have to care about (or know anything about) widgets to buy a widget company.  So I doubt a potential buyer cares a lick about baseball at this point, it's all about the proforma.  A buyer, if they care at all about baseball, will start caring about baseball after they've closed on the deal and set up shop.  

The Pohlads are cashing out for what they potentially lose in the sale price, over the debt outstanding? 

I wouldn't know for sure... Maybe... but in the grand scheme of things. They can't get it all back on the Correa contract. It shouldn't effect (or affect) I never know when to use them)) the sales price. The Debt sure should affect (or effect) the sales price because it's reported to be 500 million.   

Again... No way for me to know but... It's one bad contract out of all of the deals that add up to a total payroll  number that is necessary to play competitive baseball. The owner can decide if 144 million a year is too high or too low or just right once he completes the deal and move the needle in the direction of his choosing. 

Correa's contract in my opinion as a bigger effect (or affect) on the players they can staff around it. Because they will have budgetary guidelines that they have to adhere to. 

I think the front office just may have wanted some financial wiggle room to work with. This rebuild or whatever this was... isn't done on August 1st. The off-season is an opportunity to correct things, Correa off the books gives them wiggle room to make some moves with actual money.  

[tony&rodney]

59 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Then why not get what you can now?

No takers.

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

So including Varland, a player they didn't need to trade, in that deal and getting IMO an underwhelming return was coincidence?

 

I guess if you think the Twins traded Varland for equitable value and France brought value back, it makes sense. Just trying to see it from your perspective.

How much difference do you think $300K makes in terms of return.  It's rounding error.  Also, the return is only underwhelming if you expect the moon.  Roden is major league ready and his in-zone contract rate was in the 95th percentile.  Rojas is a 50 FV prospect.

[P Meyer]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm only saying that's enough of an argument to HAVE to trade away Varland.

And then why take on Outman? And keep Larnach? Both make more than Varland and France's remaining dollars this year anyway.

They took on Outman (IMO) because they needed another CF in order to be cautious with Buxton's recovery and financially is it almost a wash. Pure speculation but that's how it seems to me.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I had a similar reaction.  My thought was why all these OFers when we already have good OF prospects that are relatively close.  As I thought about it ... I think they are quite confident in Jenkins but that's just one guy.  They need four OFers.  They can trade from depth if they are so fortunate as to end up with more than they need.  By this time next year I see Buck & Jenkins and the competition for the 3rd and 4th OFer roles starts tonight.  I would think one of them is either Rodriguez or Outman because they need a back-up CFer which probably explains why they are taking a shot at Outman.  

Outman strikes out 40 percent of the time. He's a DFA waiting to happen. 

They also have Gonzalez and Martin.

So, they are getting rid of Larnach and Wallner? And didn't trade them? 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, P Meyer said:

They took on Outman (IMO) because they needed another CF in order to be cautious with Buxton's recovery and financially is it almost a wash. Pure speculation but that's how it seems to me.

Why do we care about winning this year? Outman hits like Vazquez....... Getting outman to protect this year doesn't help with the mythical rebuild. 

[P Meyer]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

How much difference do you think $300K makes in terms of return.  It's rounding error.  Also, the return is only underwhelming if you expect the moon.  Roden is major league ready and his in-zone contract rate was in the 95th percentile.  Rojas is a 50 FV prospect.

Like I said, if you feel the return was equitable (I don't), then I can understand your perspective. Also, in my experience, wealthy people tend to be as frugal if not more than others. Being cheap is being cheap. I feel it is very reasonable to believe the Pohlad's did not want to waste another dime on a player to not be on the roster.

[Major League Ready]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

 

Correa's contract in my opinion as a bigger effect (or affect) on the players they can staff around it. Because they will have budgetary guidelines that they have to adhere to. 

I think the front office just may have wanted some financial wiggle room to work with. This rebuild or whatever this was... isn't done on August 1st. The off-season is an opportunity to correct things, Correa off the books gives them wiggle room to make some moves with actual money.  

Could it be that they are really high on Culpepper and want him at SS?  Correa could bounce but he does not look like a SS going forward and his bat does not play as well at 3B, especially if we get the good version of Royce Lewis.  BTW .... I just checked baseball savant and Lewis is in the 87th percentile for range at 3B.  Of course, Correa's arm is quite a bit better.  I think it's quite possible the twins saw the team as being better by the end of next year with Culpepper at SS and Lewis at 3B with an extra $20M plus to spend on other needs or extensions?

The money could be used at some point (probably not next year) on a 1B or Catcher if they are unable to fill those holes.

[mwmarkland]

I think I'm frustrated most that this all came at once and I'm suffering a bit of emotional shock from that.

I agree with everyone that the Varland piece seems out of touch, but I'm glad they didn't move Ryan.

I'm not a person who has been overly critical of Baldelli; I actually like what he's done. But I don't think you can even evaluate him now given what he has to work with.

As for Falvey, I don't think he's done any better or worse than other GMs in his position. His ownership let everyone down when they cut investment right after some success. Let's hope it doesn't turn into a Marlins-light situation where success leads to years of blah.

 

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why did they trade for three OF if they believe in ERod and Jenkins? I didn't get that. 

Because they can always trade if value is created from the group of OF options. 

At least, I'm hoping beyond all hope... that this is how the Twins front office sees it. Extra talent to choose from is always a good thing and much better than saying we got nobody to knock Ty France out of the lineup. 

They will have to utilize the roster completely different than how they have been utilizing it and we will find out starting tonight if they are going to get serious about it. 

After yesterday... I believe Rocco has no choice but to do it differently starting tonight and actually try and improve players so value is raised.    

[Jim wyllie]

I don't think they should have moved Varland, and I feel they should have gotten more for Correa even if it was a salary dump.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

Could it be that they are really high on Culpepper and want him at SS?  Correa could bounce but he does not look like a SS going forward and his bat does not play as well at 3B, especially if we get the good version of Royce Lewis.  BTW .... I just checked baseball savant and Lewis is in the 87th percentile for range at 3B.  Of course, Correa's arm is quite a bit better.  I think it's quite possible the twins saw the team as being better by the end of next year with Culpepper at SS and Lewis at 3B with an extra $20M plus to spend on other needs or extensions?

The money could be used at some point (probably not next year) on a 1B or Catcher if they are unable to fill those holes.

The money being used? Good one. 

[AceBee]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I like others agree that Twins ownership & leadership really DIDN'T pick a lane.  Some of what they did yesterday made sense.  Some of it made no sense at all.  I've often complained that I felt the Twins Front Office NEVER had a plan when it came to the off season.  They were exclusively "reactive" to the moves of other teams, often letting talent that would have been a good fit with their team slip away until there was nothing to do but dumpster dive.

I was on board with many of the early moves, but share the sentiment that the returns were consistently LESS than what I expected for players we had that teams (supposedly)  desperately wanted.  Specifically, Duran, Castro, Coulombe and Bader.  

The trades of Jax and Varland were shocking to me.  At that point, I felt we had moved enough "dead wood" but still had the rotation strength, bullpen (anchored by Jax and Varland) and with Keaschall, E-Rod, Jenkins, Culpepper and Gonzalez possibly arriving in the future, a lineup with at least some potential.  The rotation was relatively intact and Lopez and Ober were soon returning.  

We've now traded 44% of our starting lineup, none of whom I'm sorry to see go (Correa, Castro, Bader, France).  These guys were either FA at the end of the season or were major disappointments (Correa).  But aside from about $20-$25 million in payroll flexibility for 2026 I'm not sure how much firepower we added to the lineup with Rodon and Outman.  If Rodon and Outman were specific targets, why wasn't Larnach or Wallner included in a trade to bring back something we need.  We don't really need MORE LH hitting OF's.  That's NOT having a plan.   

We've traded 50% of our bullpen.  All of them key pieces.  The only BP arm we've retained that has shown any talent is Cole Sands.  Was Taj Bradley for Jax a smart trade?  Bradley is just 24 but he's practically a clone of SWR, who I think is better suited to be a long reliver.   Couldn't we have gotten Shane Baz instead for a heavily desired piece like Jax?   I know bullpens are very unpredictable and fungible.  But what we had and what we have left now is utter decimation.  That's not a plan.  It's unforgiveable.  

This was not picking a lane.  This reeks of yet another instance in which Falvey had a lot of conversations with people but made panicked, hurried and reactive decisions as the trade deadline came to a close.  This appeared to me to be a guy who doesn't think he will have a job once the new ownership takes over.  Almost nothing Falvey did would improve the team now or in 2026.  Were the players he acquired particular targets of his?  Or were they who he grudgingly accepted as other GM's wore him down.  Do any of us think, after seeing what we got back in return for what we purged, that Falvey was the one in control of negotiations?  

In the end, we have an ownership family who is detested by the fan base.  A GM who never really showed me he had a plan or even a short term & long term strategy or who was too restrained by miserly ownership to ever do what needed to be done.  And a manager who was too attached to "analytics" and as a result, didn't seem to have the innate sense to "manage" a baseball game. 

It was a team that was poorly constructed season after season and was reactive, not proactive.  How else do you explain acquiring a couple more LH hitting OF when you already have an overabundance of LH hitting OF on the major league roster and as top prospects soon to debut in the major leagues?

The Vikings and Gopher football seasons can't come fast enough.  In the end, we saw an ownership group, GM and manager who just seemed to throw their hands up and say "Enough !  We're outta here!

Well said !

[Woof Bronzer]

7 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Pohlads are cashing out for what they potentially lose in the sale price, over the debt outstanding? 

I wouldn't know for sure... Maybe...

I don't know either, but remember, Joe Pohlad has run 2 businesses prior to the Twins and he ran them both into the ground.  (Make it 3 for 3 I guess.)  The Pohlads have probably cost themselves half a billion dollars over the past 2 years with how they've mismanaged this team - maybe a billion if you factor in the massive debt they tried to shelter with the Twins after mismanaging their other businesses.  

Point being, these guys are just terrible businessmen.  They are fundamentally incapable of taking the long view, they only care about short term profits, an approach that will come to bite any business in the butt eventually. 

Maybe we're trying to make sense out of something that makes no sense.  They're just incompetent and short-sighted, nothing more, nothing less.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why do we care about winning this year? Outman hits like Vazquez....... Getting outman to protect this year doesn't help with the mythical rebuild. 

I feel like he is here to provide defense in the outfield, preserve Buxton's health, and probably be showcased with playing time to flip this offseason. Not necessarily about winning as a whole.

[P Meyer]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why do we care about winning this year? Outman hits like Vazquez....... Getting outman to protect this year doesn't help with the mythical rebuild. 

I don't think they care about winning, but I do think they care about fielding a team. IMO it was just a feeling they needed another CF more than Stewart and the cost was basically a wash. They might have saved a little on the deal. No inside info but this is what it looks like to me since they were willing to make this trade without a future asset in return. 

 

This was a tear down. I think it will continue in the offseason if a sale doesn't occur. A rebuild will not happen until the team is sold. 

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why do we care about winning this year? Outman hits like Vazquez....... Getting outman to protect this year doesn't help with the mythical rebuild. 

.970 OPS in AAA right now. 20 Dingers. 14 Stolen bases. He's pretty good defensive player. .933 last year in AAA. 

I get it... his age isn't great at 28. His 2024 was a disaster at the Major League Level and the Dodgers are not going to have playing time available for a project. His 2023 was fantastic. Power, Speed, Defense is the reward if he can fix whatever ailed him last year.

44 AB's this year doesn't tell me anything. 

I'm not saying he's a slam dunk but I'd like to see him get a shot with us in a lost year. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

.970 OPS in AAA right now. 20 Dingers. 14 Stolen bases. He's pretty good defensive player. .933 last year in AAA. 

I get it... his age isn't great at 28. His 2024 was a disaster at the Major League Level and the Dodgers are not going to have playing time available for a project. His 2023 was fantastic. Power, Speed, Defense is the reward if he can fix whatever ailed him last year.

44 AB's this year doesn't tell me anything. 

I'm not saying he's a slam dunk but I'd like to see him get a shot with us in a lost year. 

I'll take the under. But we're going to find out.