The Twins Keep Trusting the Opener, But Should They?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins tried the opener strategy again on Sunday afternoon. Each time they’ve tried it this season, the plan has unraveled quickly, leaving Minnesota scrambling. While the concept behind the approach is understandable, the execution and results have simply not been there, and the Twins seem ready to continue trying it. 

On paper, the idea made sense. Danny Coulombe got the nod as Sunday’s opener because Milwaukee stacked left-handed hitters near the top of their lineup, including Sal Frelick and Christian Yelich. The Twins wanted to shield rookie David Festa from those dangerous bats the first time through the order in hopes of letting him pitch deeper into the game.

“We’re reacting a little bit because we have to,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said before the game. “I think there are certain times of the year where you’ve got to make a call, one way or the other. And it’s been a little while now we’ve been struggling to stop the other teams from scoring and we’re going to introduce something new and try to switch things up. Not just for the sake of switching things up, because I think there are actual benefits, too.”

But baseball games rarely go as planned.

Coulombe quickly got the first two outs in the opening inning and appeared poised to do his job. Then things turned. After a grinding nine-pitch at-bat, Yelich drilled a double to the gap. William Contreras followed with a sharp single up the middle to drive in a run. Suddenly, the Twins were behind before their starter ever took the mound. Coulombe’s assignment was simple: get through the first inning unscathed. He couldn’t do it.

Still, Minnesota’s offense picked him up immediately, scoring twice in the bottom half to hand a 2-1 lead to Festa when he entered. The early cushion was supposed to help the rookie settle in. Instead, he turned in one of the worst outings of his brief big-league career. Festa was hit hard, charged with eight runs on 12 hits in just 4 2/3 innings of work. Despite the change in routine, Festa didn’t point to the opener as an excuse.

“It’s a little different,” said Festa, “but it had no impact on any of the results.”

If this sounds familiar, it should. The Twins tried the same approach back in April against the Atlanta Braves. In that game, Justin Topa opened ahead of Simeon Woods Richardson. Topa surrendered three hits and gave up a run in his inning of work. Woods Richardson came in and allowed three more runs over five innings, and the Twins lost 4-3. In both cases, the strategy was designed to give young or unproven starters a softer landing. In both cases, the plan did little to prevent early damage or to improve the performance of the starter that followed.

There’s nothing new about the opener strategy. Tampa Bay popularized it years ago, and other clubs have since dabbled in it. When it works, it limits exposure to tough top-of-the-order bats early and helps a team's best pitchers handle high-leverage spots later. But it’s not a one-size-fits-all fix, and so far, the Twins haven't cracked the code.

The Twins’ roster construction may be part of the reason they continue to try. Minnesota’s rotation depth has been tested this year, and when a young pitcher like Festa or Woods Richardson gets the ball, there are legitimate concerns about them facing a lineup three times. The opener is meant to give these arms the best possible chance to survive and stretch deeper into games. At least, that’s the theory.

In practice? The results haven’t been good. Despite the shaky outcomes, Baldelli made it clear that the club plans to stick with this approach, especially when introducing younger pitchers or when a matchup necessitates it.

“[It gives] us a chance to go out there, start a good reliever at the beginning of the game and then kind of run from there,” said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “It also leaves the other team guessing a little bit. … A lot of reasons for it but I think it’s something that can help us and probably something that we’re going to see more of.”

That may not thrill Twins fans, who have seen the opener blow up more often than not this season. But with injuries, inconsistency, and inexperience shaping the back of the rotation, the Twins feel they have little choice. The alternative, throwing a young starter into the fire against a lineup’s best hitters, might be even riskier.

The opener isn’t going away. However, unless the execution improves, the results will probably not either. At some point, it’s worth asking: how many times can the Twins try this strategy and watch it backfire before they pivot? For now, they remain committed. Whether fans or the standings will tolerate more of these misfires is another question entirely.

Should the Twins continue to use an opener? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

View full article

[dberthia]

You can only rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic so many times.

[nicksaviking]

Using your LOOGY in the 1st inning probably wasn't the best idea for the 'opener' strategy. The guy can't even hit 90 MPH; if anything, it probably helped the Milwaukee hitters warm up.

I'm all for trying new things to jump start the team. Keep cranking that key, I'll tell you when when the engine starts running. Nope, that wasn't it, keep going......

[Patzky]

Griffin Jax was mentioned as being a possible candidate to start games during the off-season. If you wish to go the starter route again, and bullpen use allows, I submit him as a quality arm and one who could possibly go two innings (plus!) if successful. A lot of game forum chatter admitted we could have let Coulombe go longer with the same or better result after gaining the lead. Of course some called for Bride too. And Coulombe was one batter away from a successful opener experiment. (Then a second batter)

 

CON: It does does remove him (Jax) from availability the following day if he were to.go two.

[DJL44]

I'm going to reject the premise that a relief pitcher "fails" any time they give up a single run in an inning. That's a ridiculously high standard that nobody meets.

[jjswol]

Some teams seem to make it work, it hasn't worked for the Twins.

[karcherd]

How about developing your pitchers and not be afraid of who your pitchers face.  Richardson has been here a year and a half, when do you take the training wheels off.  Last year the Guardians used an opener once and they had to throw a lot of their young pitchers out there due to injury.

My biggest fear is if it doesn't work, when will they stop using the strategy.  This organization does not like to admit mistakes because they are the smartest ones in the room and all of baseball.

[mikelink45]

I don't like it.  Never have - even for Tampa Bay and they seem to be in a league of their own.  We do not have the arms in the BP to make this work.  If we want to really stop the first inning lineup - use Duran.  Otherwise give your starter the ball and ride with him as long as possible. 

[mnfireman]

Jax, Varland or Stewart maybe, big K guys who could "possibly" go 2 IP, otherwise no.

Lopez and Mathews being hurt, as well as Ober (injury??) stuck in some sort of funk, and Festa and SWR not being allowed to go through the line-up 3X does kind of handcuff the rotation at this point.   

And let's not get started about the (lack of) defense behind them, but facing extra batters and throwing extra pitches doesn't help.

[Doc Lenz]

Rocco is right he had the Brewers guessing. Guessing how many runs they would score.

[Maybe Next Year]

As a former starting college pitcher I believe the opener strategy is absolutely stupid. A starting pitcher has a mental and physical routine that he goes through before every start. Using an opener disrupts that routine, especially if it is a home game. It makes it difficult to prepare physically when you are either sitting in the dugout for an inning after warming up or you are in the bullpen and trying to determine just when you will enter the game. All the naysayers will say that he is a professional and should be prepared no matter what the situation. I totally disagree. Having consistency in your preparation is important. In my opinion the opener strategy puts a starting pitcher at a disadvantage. Proof? The results speak for themselves.

[LakesPibble]

Quote

Despite the shaky outcomes, Baldelli made it clear that the club plans to stick with this approach

I feel like this is a crystallization of the Twins.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I'm going to reject the premise that a relief pitcher "fails" any time they give up a single run in an inning. That's a ridiculously high standard that nobody meets.

What?

A reliever who gives up a run in an inning failed. Particularly when it's this stupid "opener" thing. 

Relievers are going to give up runs, true. But when they do, thats a failure. Plain and simple. 

Limit the failures. But dont pretend they're not failures. 

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

What?

A reliever who gives up a run in an inning failed. Particularly when it's this stupid "opener" thing. 

Relievers are going to give up runs, true. But when they do, thats a failure. Plain and simple. 

Limit the failures. But dont pretend they're not failures. 

So, if a starting pitcher gives up a run in the first inning, he's a failure? How about if Coulombe gives up one run but Festa would have given up more than one run in the same situation. Does that mean Coulombe is a failure for performing better than Festa?

If a reliever's worst case expectation is he occasionally gives up a single run in an inning, then he's a damned good reliever, not a failure.

[Patzky]

Twins claim RHP Connor Gillespie and assign the pitcher to AAA St Paul. Gillespie appeared in a handful of games for the Marlins this year. And a few for the Guardians in 2024. 

Inning eater with luck .. possible sixth starter.

[Western SD Fan]

This is looking more and more like a desperation attempt to further baby the back end of the rotation.  We (fans) are measuring how deep the start or appearance is by number of innings pitched and the Twins staff is measuring by the number of at bats that pitcher faces.  

If we compare the other pitchers that have been through the pipeline during their first two years at the MLB level, we seem to get similar results.  I included Joe Ryan even though he was an almost finished product when he came to the Twins and Paddack, since up until this year, he has not been a pitcher that goes deep into ballgames.

SWR  2022-2025 (1 start in both 2022 and 2023):  41 games and 18.4 AB/game

Festa 2024-2025: 21 games and 17.9 AB/Game

Ober 2021-2022: 31 games and 18.3 AB/Game

Ryan 2021-2022:  32 games and 20.0 AB/game

Paddack 2024-2025:  32 games and 20.8 AB/game

As stated above, Ryan was a nearly finished product when he was traded here.  Paddack is my control as a back of the rotation starter since he is a veteran.  As we can see, Paddack gets more run, likely because of his veteran status than the younger pitchers listed above.   IMO, Ober is the only pitcher here who has graduated the pipeline, and his AB's/game was below SWR's at a similar time in their respective careers.  The concept of never trusting a young pitcher seems to just be the Twins way.  Ober and Ryan in 2021-2022 were not the "bulk" pitcher with an opener in front of them.  They were allowed to start and figure it out.  The difference is that the team wasn't expected to compete in 2021 and 2022, especially when they faded so badly in 2022, whereas the expectation to compete in 2025 has brought added pressure to do something to save the season.

I personally think they should ditch the opener.  They don't have a reliever capable of going multiple quality innings like other teams when they use an opener.  The other issue of the opener is that when it doesn't work, as in the opener seeing 6+ batters in the inning, you're really stuck as to 1) leaving them out there to rot to get out of the inning, 2) bringing in your "starter" in the middle of an inning, or 3) waste another reliever to get out of the inning.  They also don't run into teams that suddenly turnover their lineups after the opener is out of the game (right Rocco?).  Starters just need to be more efficient with their pitches and this solution searching for a problem goes away.  When you have a batter 0-2 and then throw another 6 pitches to finally get them out, the starter is going to wear out quicker.  

[mnfireman]

There is difference in batters faced (BF) and at bats (AB) per game. Festa and Mathews both face 20 batters a game, Festa 420 BF/21 GMs, Mathews 260 BF/13 GMs. 

Joe Ryan 21-22: 22 BF/GM (704/32)

Bailey Ober 21-22: 19.5 BF/GM (606/31)

SWR 22-25: 20.7 BF/GM (848/41)

Paddack 24-25: 22.5 BF/GM (720/32)

And for the record, Paddack is 5 months older than Ryan, and has appeared in 1 more game over their careers...

[Doctor Gast]

I'm not a big fan of an opener, when a RP comes in & pitches 1 inning & a SP comes in & pitches to X amount of batters. Because the mindset is different between the 2. What Baldelli did made sense, but in practice, it normally doesn't work unless both are ingrained in this process for the necessary amount of time to get accustomed to it. I prefer the SP to open & go as long as possible & go with a long RP after that. If you want to interject LHRP in between, that's OK too. 

[mluebker]

It’s working so well, so I guess do whatever the iPad in the dugout says to do.

[terrydactyls]

21 hours ago, Maybe Next Year said:

As a former starting college pitcher I believe the opener strategy is absolutely stupid. A starting pitcher has a mental and physical routine that he goes through before every start. Using an opener disrupts that routine, especially if it is a home game. It makes it difficult to prepare physically when you are either sitting in the dugout for an inning after warming up or you are in the bullpen and trying to determine just when you will enter the game. All the naysayers will say that he is a professional and should be prepared no matter what the situation. I totally disagree. Having consistency in your preparation is important. In my opinion the opener strategy puts a starting pitcher at a disadvantage. Proof? The results speak for themselves.

I was going to write the same opinion (except the part about being a former college pitcher).  Routine is very important when you only play once a week.

[LambchoP]

The opener will only work if the SP or bulk innings guy can keep your team in the game and lately Festa, Ober, SWR and Paddack have been unable to do that. You also need enough quality arms in the bullpen that using one to open the game doesn't hurt your chances of having impact arms available in the late innings. I still don't understand why Adams isn't being given a chance. I would much rather see him as our long man/ opener/ piggyback starter over cast offs like Wentz and the new waiver wire pickup from MIA....