Is Billy Amick the Minnesota Twins' Long-Term Solution at First Base?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

34 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Amick had a 1.236 OPS over 192 plate appearances at Clemson his Sophomore year. He had a 1.026 OPS over 292 plate appearances at Tennessee his Junior year. He now has a 168 wRC+ over 99 plate appearances at High-A. He thrived at the plate against the best pitching in college baseball for consecutive seasons and is now hitting 68% better than league average in High-A. This isn't some random, obscure prospect that I picked out and randomly placed the "first baseman of the future title" on him. He is a top 12 prospect in a strong Twins system who could soon be in Double-A at 22 years old. The backlash this piece has received is unwarranted, imo.

I would expect you feel it is unwarranted, otherwise you would not have written the article.

College numbers really do not mean anything at this point. Yes, he has shown some positive traits offensively in A-ball, however it is a very small sample size. I don't think anyone here would argue that he would be a potential candidate to move to first base at some point, but to suggest he is anything close to MLB ready both offensively and defensively, is absurd to say the least. When you factor in how traditionally slow the Twins are when moving along position players (a fact that you should know) and that you are discussing (by all accounts) a defensive-liability for a team that currently promotes defensive flexibility, it does not show well.

I like the article, I like the discussion. But when you, as a contributing writer to a Twins website, start pushing unreasonable ideas as reasonable, you have to expect backlash.

[rdehring]

Interesting post, thanks.

Yes, Amick could move to first and be a good, or maybe even great, option for first base two or three years down the road.  

Truth is there are lots of good prospects in the minors who you could say the same about. 

But I was shocked to see no one mention Royce Lewis as the near-term answer.  Would he be injured less at first?  I don't know, but would think maybe.  Have seen lots of concern the past year or so about his defense at third.  Presumably, first isn't as difficult to play defensively as third.  At least that's the supposition of this post and reason to move Amick there.  Finally, the Twins have Lee as a better defensive option at third, and Keaschall returning for second.  Both their bats need to be in the lineup, as does Lewis' bat.

Sounds to me that moving Lewis to first may be in the Twins best interest. 

[Fred]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

No he's not better than Aaron Sabato.

a22 A+, Amick vs. Sabato
.342/.475/.447 OPS .922 wRC+ 168 15.2% BB, 26.3% K, .105 ISO, .500 BABIP
vs.
.253/.402/.613 OPS 1.015 wRC+ 166 19.6% BB, 33.0% K, .360 ISO, .297 BABIP

This is the first year that Sabato hasn't looked a thrown away draft pick. Maybe he sees Amick looming on the horizon. Who knows why he has "come alive", but my expectations for Sabato are low (the way I remember it, Kepler had a couple of good years at bat, but I never expected much from him, either). They haven't plummeted for Amick, yet.

[Fred]

3 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Interesting post, thanks.

Yes, Amick could move to first and be a good, or maybe even great, option for first base two or three years down the road.  

Truth is there are lots of good prospects in the minors who you could say the same about. 

But I was shocked to see no one mention Royce Lewis as the near-term answer.  Would he be injured less at first?  I don't know, but would think maybe.  Have seen lots of concern the past year or so about his defense at third.  Presumably, first isn't as difficult to play defensively as third.  At least that's the supposition of this post and reason to move Amick there.  Finally, the Twins have Lee as a better defensive option at third, and Keaschall returning for second.  Both their bats need to be in the lineup, as does Lewis' bat.

Sounds to me that moving Lewis to first may be in the Twins best interest. 

I like that. Lewis has trouble with throws from third. That would be cut way down at first.

[chpettit19]

I'd like to know if his lack of HR output to start the year is part of a conscious approach as he works on making more contact and there's a plan to start being more aggressive in his swings and looking for more power as the season progresses. I haven't watched many of their games so I don't have any guess on that, but it'd be interesting to hear. His contact rate doesn't suggest that's the case, but he's also going the other way significantly more.

I'd take Clemson Amick (more doubles than HRs, higher BA) over Tennessee Amick so I'm not overly worried about the HRs. The BABIP is obviously going to come way down so it will be interesting to see where he goes from here.

[bean5302]

36 minutes ago, Fred said:

This is the first year that Sabato hasn't looked a thrown away draft pick. Maybe he sees Amick looming on the horizon. Who knows why he has "come alive", but my expectations for Sabato are low (the way I remember it, Kepler had a couple of good years at bat, but I never expected much from him, either). They haven't plummeted for Amick, yet.

Sabato is a non-prospect, but he looked just as good as Amick out of the gate.

@Cody Schoenmann the reason you're taking so much flak is the SSS with a .500 BABIP and .105 ISO. Adjusting the BABIP down to a still aggressive .350, and the number of HBP from 6 to 2 (about the top 10% in MLB last year and add 1 BB to make up for the loss of 4 HBP)Amick's numbers drop to
.237/.364/.342 OPS .706 wRC+ 100-ish.
If we take the BABIP down to a more reasonable .300, we get to
.203/.333/.308 OPS .641 wRC+ 80-ish.

You're being way too aggressive on Amick's projections based on the outlier metrics and the SSS.

[Teflon]

Can Trevor Larnach be taught 1B?

[Mike Sixel]

7 hours ago, awmonahan said:

I'm not seeing a compelling argument for him at 1B yet. If he performs at AA soon, maybe we can reconsider. For now, he's simply performing better than Aaron Sabato. 

I'm not sure your point? He's never going to play third in the majors. Why play there now? They did this to Martin also, which is why he's not yet good in the outfield. 

[yeahyabetcha]

7 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Amick could reasonably be in the majors next season. 

Let the “France should get DFA’d immediately and move Amick up now so he doesn’t waste all his bullets in minors” talk begin!!

[FlyingFinn]

With Amick's lack of speed and defense, he must hit for power. Nice start to this season with his batting average but if you can't hit for power in Class A, he's got a lot of work to do yet.

[Western SD Fan]

Just another traditional Twins draft pick.  Strong power, weak defense.  Only thing we are missing is when he's getting injured, then he would be the prototypical Twins draft pick.

[old nurse]

12 hours ago, Mark G said:

This organization breeds every infield position BUT 1st base, and it has been going on for a long time.  First base and catcher seem to be our bugaboos, mainly because it is hard to develop a really good long term catcher, and we look at the first base position the same way we look at DH; just rotate people in and out, occasionally signing a 1 year stop gap.  

I truly hope this guy develops and gives us several decent years.  If we just can't develop a good first baseman, then trade for a long term solution, but I do hope Billy can succeed.

Name the last career shortstop they developed 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Teflon said:

Can Trevor Larnach be taught 1B?

There should be no reason other than he coulld’t learn good outfield play, what makes it possible for him to learn good if play?

[Exiled in Illinois]

I think they should move Lewis to first base as a placeholder until Amick is ready :)

[joefish]

On 5/7/2025 at 6:36 AM, saviking said:

Would love for someone to solidify first base from inside the organization. 

I miss Santana

[jmlease1]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure your point? He's never going to play third in the majors. Why play there now? They did this to Martin also, which is why he's not yet good in the outfield. 

He's still young enough that the defense could improve, so consigning him to 1B only in his first full season of pro ball is probably premature. If he can be acceptable at 3B it increases his utility, even if he's likely to be a primary 1B. It's not like they're not giving him innings at 1B to learn the position. I'm hesitant to slide guys down the defensive spectrum too quickly, especially in A-ball.

 

[twinstalker]

On 5/7/2025 at 9:12 AM, bean5302 said:

I find his line last year in low-A unimpressive for a 2nd round all bat college hitter, he's still in the low minors, his BABIP is .500 and his ISO is a very poor .105.

Those are minor details compared to his 26% K rate.  Add in he's 22 at A+, and yeah....

[cmoss84]

He'd be...Amickable?

But seriously, I'm all for the promotion train to get started. At every level. When does this usually happen and can we start early this year? 

[Linus]

I don’t know if he will hit but he never playing third in the bigs. Get him to first now so he can be competent there in case he does hit. You don’t develop plus fielders at a given position by not having them play there.