Don't Look Back in Anger

[Cody Schoenmann]

And so, Mahle can wait. He knows it's too late as we're walkin' on by. His soul slides away, "But don't look back in anger," we heard him say.

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Your 2025 Minnesota Twins are off to an abysmal start. No amount of cognitive behavioral therapy or ventures into various coping mechanisms can soothe the reality that this team is, at best, disappointing. Nevertheless, we here at Twins Daily will relentlessly continue to cover every possible positive angle one can find on this team, its manager, and its front office (never the owners, though)—in hopes of looking intelligent when this club is inevitably holding a firm one-game lead over the third and final AL Wild Card spot at the All-Star break.

That being the case, please prepare yourself for yet another puff piece on the Twins' front office's sound decision-making process in the runup to the 2022 MLB Trade Deadline.

In the second season of a two-year, $22-million deal he signed with the Texas Rangers after the 2023 season, veteran Tyler Mahle has looked like one of the American League's best starting pitchers, posting a 0.68 ERA, 2.51 FIP, and 24.8% strikeout rate over 26 2/3 innings pitched, including a dominating start (seven innings pitched and zero earned runs) against the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The driving force behind the right-handed hurler's early-season success has been his fastball, which has generated a 99th-percentile fastball run value despite possessing 16th-percentile average velocity.

Mahle's splitter has played exceptionally well, too, as evidenced by the pitch generating a 98th-percentile Offspeed run value. The former Twins starter has utilized these two pitches 80% of the time, a usage rate similar to when he blossomed into one of the most sought-after 2022 deadline acquisitions while a member of the Cincinnati Reds. Minnesota won that bidding war, sending prospects Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Stever Hajjar to the Queen City to acquire the prized righty.  Mahle infamously started only four games for the Twins in 2022, with an uninspiring 4.41 ERA, 5.56 FIP, and 19% strikeout rate—before spending the rest of the season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. The then-28-year-old began his 2023 campaign strongly, generating a 3.16 ERA, 4.19 FIP, and 27.5% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, any expectancies of an elongated bounce-back season were cut short, as Mahle was sidelined with an elbow impingement in late April before undergoing Tommy John surgery a month later.

The injury-prone righty's absence went largely unfelt, as Minnesota went on to snap their 18-game postseason losing streak five months later. Mahle hit free agency that fall and struck his deal with Texas. The organization understood that he would spend a substantial portion of the contract's first season recovering from surgery. However, unlike the salary-restricted Twins, they were willing to shell out the money necessary to secure his services. 

In an echo of his first season in Minnesota, Mahle joined Texas in early August, making only three starts for the organization before missing the rest of the 2024 season due to right shoulder tightness. Coming off three straight seasons plagued by significant injuries to his throwing arm, many wondered if Mahle's once-promising major-league career would fizzle out. However, as stated earlier, the now-30-year-old has been incredible this season, making his $22-million contract a bargain. Other veteran injury-prone starters are earning nearly that much total money on one-year contracts. 

Mahle's success with Texas shouldn't anger Twins fans. Despite a dreadful start to their 2025 season, Minnesota still possesses a formidable starting rotation, with Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews all possessing multiple seasons of control. Instead, Mahle overcoming significant injury concerns and blossoming into one of the AL's best starting pitchers this season further proves that the Twins front office's decision to spend significant prospect capital on Mahle at the 2022 deadline was sound, even if Texas is the organization benefitting from Mahle's success. Perhaps the people who most need to hear that are members of the front office, themselves. They shouldn't be cowed by the 2022 experience. They should be thinking about how to replicate that process.

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

eh... A strong upside pitcher does well (albeit in an extremely small sample size) after spending a few injury plagued years with the Twins.

Mahle being successful shouldn't really surprise anyone, it just would have been nice to see the healthy version of him in Minnesota.

[Road trip]

I guess, maybe, I can kinda buy this argument. 

The trade is looking less disastrous as time passes now that the shine is off some of those prospects.  Steer remains a solid and promising hitter, but his glove is weak no matter where Cincy puts him (a trend with Twins prospects).  It's somewhat unlikely that he becomes a difference-maker... probably just a reasonably reliable 2-3 WAR player who brings a little power but not much else.  Encarnacion-Strand is starting to look like a total bust, which is a real surprise.  He's had no MLB success at all.  Looks like Hajjar may never make it past A ball.

I don't regret trading the prospects. I do wish the FO had better luck on getting solid and healthy players in return.  

[bean5302]

Nobody was angry with the Twins pursuing a pitcher of Mahle's caliber, though I certainly wish they had aimed higher. Most of the fanbase was angry Falvey made the move immediately after Mahle came off the IL for shoulder fatigue and the Twins didn't do any due diligence on the arm, and it just so happened to turn out the arm was a mess.

Like what feels like far too many of Falvey's moves to accumulate every injured or injury prone player in baseball.

[chpettit19]

I much prefer them taking chances on being competitive and trying to improve the team over doing essentially nothing like they have the last 2 deadlines. 

And, as is usually the case, the prospects they gave up haven't turned into much of anything (in the long run). Hajjar and CES aren't missed in the least, and Steer would be fitting right in with the current Twins lineup right now. It's quite possible the Twins didn't trade a single MLB starting quality player in this deal, and only 1 guy worthy of even being on an MLB roster as whatever "bad everywhere, but you can move him around" utility guy Steer is. Steer likely is about an MLB average bat with negative defensive value which is a solid enough 10th through 13th guy on a playoff roster, but not somebody you're overly upset over trading away.

It was a solid trade, in theory. Just didn't work out because the raised injury concerns ended up being how things played out and they got nothing out of Mahle. The Reds got a really nice rookie season out of Steer and now he's struggling. I don't think this is a trade either team is losing sleep over or hanging their hat on. Pretty run of the mill in the end.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

41 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Nobody was angry with the Twins pursuing a pitcher of Mahle's caliber, though I certainly wish they had aimed higher. Most of the fanbase was angry Falvey made the move immediately after Mahle came off the IL for shoulder fatigue and the Twins didn't do any due diligence on the arm, and it just so happened to turn out the arm was a mess.

Like what feels like far too many of Falvey's moves to accumulate every injured or injury prone player in baseball.

I am not sure the issue is due diligence. Looking at the totality of the tenure, it feels more like calculated risk. Look at Correa and Buxton. They got below market deals on these guys knowing there were health issues. They have made efforts to have capable backups (to varying levels of success). At the same time, when on the field, Correa and Buxton have generally been very good.

Because of the financial limitations imposed on this team, I understand the need to take these sorts of risks. But when they don't work out 100%, and the wheels fall off in other areas, the optics look really bad.

[Blyleven2011]

This is what I will say  , THE FRONT OFFICE IS GUN SHY ABOUT TRADING PLAYERS FOR PLAYERS ...

They have made some good trades , odrizzie and sunny gray that have worked out , but there deadline  acquisition in 2022 which should have been put off until the 2023 deadline because we were a more of a contending team in 2023 than 2022 was more of a pretending team at the deadline in my opinion  ...

Unable to evaluate talent and trading for oft injured players has not been the front offices strong points  ...

Their last trade of Polanco for 1 injured pitcher and 1 pitcher that had 1 good season and 2 prospects hasn't helped to date , with time the trade may favor the twins ...

Okert is pitching well for Houston  ....

[bean5302]

Also, this article reads a lot like the Dobnak fan (or was it 2) who were running around the forums taunting everybody after Dobnak made a couple nice emergency long relief appearances for the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

At least they tried to win......unlike the previous FO. It didn't work, so what? Staying put under Ryan never worked either. This idea that doing nothing (which is actively doing something, actually) is somehow preferable to trying and failing is odd to me....

[rv78]

Not quite sure I understand the concept of saying a "sound-decision making process" is being made just because the player you are getting was good. Anyone can see how a player performed previously and if it was good want to trade for that player. The real judge of a trade is how that player played for you when you had him. In this case, it was a total failure. It's also not a "sound-decision making process" when the player is having arm issues and you choose to ignore them. Was trading for a 1/2 year wonder like Jorge Lopez a sound-decision making process? No. Or DeScalfani? No. I wouldn't go out on a limb and say bringing back Correa was either. A known cheater that 2 other teams didn't want due to injury questions, who also didn't want to stay with the Twins after his first tenure, leaving for bigger money. What does that tell you about the supposed leader when he has the choice to stay or leave and chooses the latter? And we are to believe that he is the team leader? He didn't even want to be here in the first place. The Mets and Giants are the ones who had a "sound-decision making process". Not the Twins.

[jmlease1]

I don't get too spun up about the Mahle deal: it didn't work out, but we needed starting pitching badly at the time and if arm had held up it might have been not just a good trade but a great one. It was a reasonable risk. And hell, the prospect that i was the most high on (CES) is already looking like a 1B/DH at 25, isn't hitting anywhere near where he needs to be there, and has struggled to stay healthy.

Twins traded from an area of strength to shore up an area of weakness and it didn't work out. they didn't move anyone who was a sure-fire MLB player or wipe the system of talent. If Mahle's arm had held up for either of the 2 seasons he'd pitched for the twins this might have worked out. As it is, it's a loss...that's turning out to be less awful that we thought because CES and Hajjar haven't done anything and Steer has been in free-fall since his rookie season in MLB. (maybe Steer pulls out of it, or maybe he's one of those guys who peaked early and never gets it back together)

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Not quite sure I understand the concept of saying a "sound-decision making process" is being made just because the player you are getting was good. Anyone can see how a player performed previously and if it was good want to trade for that player. The real judge of a trade is how that player played for you when you had him. In this case, it was a total failure. It's also not a "sound-decision making process" when the player is having arm issues and you choose to ignore them. Was trading for a 1/2 year wonder like Jorge Lopez a sound-decision making process? No. Or DeScalfani? No. I wouldn't go out on a limb and say bringing back Correa was either. A known cheater that 2 other teams didn't want due to injury questions, who also didn't want to stay with the Twins after his first tenure, leaving for bigger money. What does that tell you about the supposed leader when he has the choice to stay or leave and chooses the latter? And we are to believe that he is the team leader? He didn't even want to be here in the first place. The Mets and Giants are the ones who had a "sound-decision making process". Not the Twins.

You can make a good decision and not have it work. There were three, IIRC , pitchers traded, none of them worked. I guess they could have done nothing like Ryan did. How'd that work?

[rv78]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You can make a good decision and not have it work. There were three, IIRC , pitchers traded, none of them worked. I guess they could have done nothing like Ryan did. How'd that work?

Problem was, it wasn't a good decision. That's the point the article was trying to convey.

[BillyBallLives]

Good decisions vs bad ones... that’s really what it comes down to. And when you look at Falvey’s whole track record, I honestly don’t know how you could give him anything better than a C.

The one that still ticks me off the most? The Pressly trade.

Pressly was just starting to figure it out, and the Astros spotted a small tweak, helped him unlock it, and boom—dude turns into a beast. Meanwhile, the Twins had him right there and totally whiffed on it.

Falvey and his crew basically gave him away. They didn’t wait, didn’t develop him, just pulled the trigger way too soon and handed Houston a steal.

And what’d we get? Two guys who’ve done next to nothing in the bigs. That trade still stings.

[Fatbat]

Can we now reverse engineer the trade to acquire a reasonably uninjured fielder that can hit .280 and not GIDP once per game? 30 SB/season would also be nice. 

[DocBauer]

They were aggressive. I loved the moves at the time, and I suspect most others did as well. The FO "went for it"! 

I saw the same potential in Mahle as the FO did. Lopez was a great arm that seemed to figure it out and was performing as an All Star. And then everything crashed. 

I still applaud the FO for "going for it" at the time. Its really unfortunate that those trades didn't turn out. It's good for the franchise that they didn't lose any true difference makers. But I don't look back with major regrets.

Once in a while you win trades, and sometimes you lose in trades. I guess the Reds won this one because they got a useful but not great player in the end. But it could have been very different with a healthy Mahle and a strong and not distracted Lopez.

[KirbyDome89]

15 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not sure the issue is due diligence. Looking at the totality of the tenure, it feels more like calculated risk. Look at Correa and Buxton. They got below market deals on these guys knowing there were health issues. They have made efforts to have capable backups (to varying levels of success). At the same time, when on the field, Correa and Buxton have generally been very good.

Because of the financial limitations imposed on this team, I understand the need to take these sorts of risks. But when they don't work out 100%, and the wheels fall off in other areas, the optics look really bad.

They've traded for 3 SP in the last 3 seasons and gotten next to nothing out of them. At what point does it stop becoming calculated? It's not just optics, it's reality. You can't keep trying to rely on guys who are terrible and/or not available. 

They didn't get a below market deal on Correa, and Buxton's backups have ranged from subpar to abysmal over the last few seasons. That doesn't offset his time missed in any capacity. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

They've traded for 3 SP in the last 3 seasons and gotten next to nothing out of them. At what point does it stop becoming calculated? It's not just optics, it's reality. You can't keep trying to rely on guys who are terrible and/or not available. 

They didn't get a below market deal on Correa, and Buxton's backups have ranged from subpar to abysmal over the last few seasons. That doesn't offset his time missed in any capacity. 

Considering this team does not have the capability to go out and spend $150m on a SP2, this is what you get. Like it, don't like it, teams that are hamstrung financially need to find lightning in a bottle where they can. Paddack wasn't brought in to be an SP1, he was expected to be an SP4. Same with Mahle. If either of them performed at or above expectations, the narrative would be different. They didn't. The team keeps looking.

It is hard to say with any confidence the Twins did not get a below-value contract with Correa. The amount of team options alone on this deal for a player of his caliber is staggering.

Taylor - Good
Margot - Bad
Bader - Good (so far, though Buxton has been healthy too)

As much as every team tries, there is only one Tampa Bay organization. Personally I would rather see them take runs at guys like Mahle and Paddack, then sign Rich Hill.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Considering this team does not have the capability to go out and spend $150m on a SP2, this is what you get. Like it, don't like it, teams that are hamstrung financially need to find lightning in a bottle where they can. Paddack wasn't brought in to be an SP1, he was expected to be an SP4. Same with Mahle. If either of them performed at or above expectations, the narrative would be different. They didn't. The team keeps looking.

It is hard to say with any confidence the Twins did not get a below-value contract with Correa. The amount of team options alone on this deal for a player of his caliber is staggering.

Taylor - Good
Margot - Bad
Bader - Good (so far, though Buxton has been healthy too)

As much as every team tries, there is only one Tampa Bay organization. Personally I would rather see them take runs at guys like Mahle and Paddack, then sign Rich Hill.

They just spent $200M on Correa. The money was apparently there, the team chose to invest it elsewhere. Mahle was definitely brought in to sit at the front of the rotation when they traded for him. Paddack was not expected to be that high in the pecking order but that takes a back seat to the fact that they were relying on him to stick in the rotation. 

Unless you actually believe he was turning down better offers to stay in MN, the Twins represented the top of the market. 

Taylor is severely overrated on TD. He was an offensive black hole and a major contributor to a team offense that went dormant way too often for way too long. No need to talk about Margot. Bader if TBD and if the Twins keep feeding him PAs against RHP I'll take the under. 

I don't want to be TB. No fan should. Sure, take a run at an injured player if there's an actual plan B. Don't collect injured players, rely on them to stick, and then throw your hands up when they inevitably get hurt. I can't feel sorry for a FO that put themselves in those situations.  

[BsuNemo]

Gray, Lopez, Mahle, Ryan, Ober would have been fun to see for a year... Still have to score runs though.