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Your 2025 Minnesota Twins are off to an abysmal start. No amount of cognitive behavioral therapy or ventures into various coping mechanisms can soothe the reality that this team is, at best, disappointing. Nevertheless, we here at Twins Daily will relentlessly continue to cover every possible positive angle one can find on this team, its manager, and its front office (never the owners, though)—in hopes of looking intelligent when this club is inevitably holding a firm one-game lead over the third and final AL Wild Card spot at the All-Star break.
That being the case, please prepare yourself for yet another puff piece on the Twins' front office's sound decision-making process in the runup to the 2022 MLB Trade Deadline.
In the second season of a two-year, $22-million deal he signed with the Texas Rangers after the 2023 season, veteran Tyler Mahle has looked like one of the American League's best starting pitchers, posting a 0.68 ERA, 2.51 FIP, and 24.8% strikeout rate over 26 2/3 innings pitched, including a dominating start (seven innings pitched and zero earned runs) against the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The driving force behind the right-handed hurler's early-season success has been his fastball, which has generated a 99th-percentile fastball run value despite possessing 16th-percentile average velocity.
Mahle's splitter has played exceptionally well, too, as evidenced by the pitch generating a 98th-percentile Offspeed run value. The former Twins starter has utilized these two pitches 80% of the time, a usage rate similar to when he blossomed into one of the most sought-after 2022 deadline acquisitions while a member of the Cincinnati Reds. Minnesota won that bidding war, sending prospects Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Stever Hajjar to the Queen City to acquire the prized righty. Mahle infamously started only four games for the Twins in 2022, with an uninspiring 4.41 ERA, 5.56 FIP, and 19% strikeout rate—before spending the rest of the season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. The then-28-year-old began his 2023 campaign strongly, generating a 3.16 ERA, 4.19 FIP, and 27.5% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, any expectancies of an elongated bounce-back season were cut short, as Mahle was sidelined with an elbow impingement in late April before undergoing Tommy John surgery a month later.
The injury-prone righty's absence went largely unfelt, as Minnesota went on to snap their 18-game postseason losing streak five months later. Mahle hit free agency that fall and struck his deal with Texas. The organization understood that he would spend a substantial portion of the contract's first season recovering from surgery. However, unlike the salary-restricted Twins, they were willing to shell out the money necessary to secure his services.
In an echo of his first season in Minnesota, Mahle joined Texas in early August, making only three starts for the organization before missing the rest of the 2024 season due to right shoulder tightness. Coming off three straight seasons plagued by significant injuries to his throwing arm, many wondered if Mahle's once-promising major-league career would fizzle out. However, as stated earlier, the now-30-year-old has been incredible this season, making his $22-million contract a bargain. Other veteran injury-prone starters are earning nearly that much total money on one-year contracts.
Mahle's success with Texas shouldn't anger Twins fans. Despite a dreadful start to their 2025 season, Minnesota still possesses a formidable starting rotation, with Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews all possessing multiple seasons of control. Instead, Mahle overcoming significant injury concerns and blossoming into one of the AL's best starting pitchers this season further proves that the Twins front office's decision to spend significant prospect capital on Mahle at the 2022 deadline was sound, even if Texas is the organization benefitting from Mahle's success. Perhaps the people who most need to hear that are members of the front office, themselves. They shouldn't be cowed by the 2022 experience. They should be thinking about how to replicate that process.
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