4 Early Season Worries That May Not Matter For the Twins

[Cody Christie]

It’s hard for fans not to overreact to the Twins’ early season performance on the heels of last year’s collapse. That said, there may be some simple explanations for the team’s biggest concerns.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

 

 

Minnesota’s early season performance has been a mixed bag, leaving fans scratching their heads and analysts mulling over what to expect as the season unfolds. At the same time, there are some reasons for concern, such as that much of the early turbulence can be chalked up to small sample sizes, timing, and baseball's natural ebbs and flows. Let’s break down a few of the key storylines that are fueling conversation.

Worry 1: Joe Ryan’s Velocity Dip
Ryan’s second outing of the season saw a noticeable decrease in velocity. He started the game with his fastball in the mid-90s and it dropped four-five mph by the time he left the game. Now, while a dip in velocity can raise alarm bells for many pitchers, it’s essential to consider the full context. Ryan has experienced similar fluctuations before, and there’s a good chance this is just a byproduct of his unique mechanics. It’s also worth noting that Ryan is coming off an injured list stint from last season. His ramp-up to the season isn’t following the usual script, and minor adjustments during early outings can be expected when a pitcher is easing back into full form.

At this point, though, there’s no compelling evidence that Ryan’s recent performance is more than a temporary blip. His track record suggests he has the tools to rebound, and a single outing isn’t enough to write him off for the season. Fans should keep an eye on him, but his early velocity issue is more a conversation starter than a cause for deep concern.

Worry 2: Carlos Correa’s Slow Start
Correa’s early season numbers are disappointing, especially coming on the heels of a poor performance this spring. With only two hits in his first 26 plate appearances, it’s easy to jump to conclusions. However, the small sample size tells a very different story when you dig deeper. One of the more telling metrics is Correa’s expected batting average (xBA), which sits about 150 points higher than his current .080 BA. This gap suggests that Correa is experiencing a streak of bad luck at the plate rather than a fundamental decline in his swing or approach.

There’s also a familiar pattern here. Correa has a history of slow starts with the Twins. Last season, he ramped up to a .755 OPS by the end of April, while in 2023, his OPS in April was only .634. These numbers indicate that while the start might be frustrating, it’s not necessarily indicative of what the rest of the season holds. One factor that does deserve a watchful eye is his plantar fasciitis. Should that issue flare up again, it could complicate his progress. But barring that, fans should remain patient. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and if Correa is anything like his past self, he’ll eventually find his rhythm.

Worry 3: Louis Varland’s Bullpen Transition
Varland was initially eyed as a potential late-inning weapon out of the bullpen. Unfortunately, his early outings have not provided the expected stability. In his first four appearances, Varland has given up runs in two, surrendering five hits and a walk across four innings. The numbers might seem alarming at first glance, especially his 63.6% hard-hit rate, the highest on the team. For a reliever, those are not sustainable figures.

However, it’s important to remember that relievers operate within incredibly small sample sizes. One or two tough outings can skew the numbers, and the team is known for giving its relievers ample opportunities to prove themselves. As healthy options start returning from injury, the coaching staff may need to rethink Varland’s role or adjust his usage. For now, though, the team appears content to let him continue gaining experience in the bullpen. The key will be whether Varland can tweak his approach to reduce the frequency of hard-hit balls.

Worry 4: Struggling to Find an Offensive Spark
Minnesota’s offense has also been a topic of intense scrutiny. The team currently finds itself in the bottom 7% of the league in several key metrics, including exit velocity, wOBA, and wOBAcon. These numbers paint a picture of an offense struggling to make solid contact and generate power consistently. The low exit velocity suggests that even when the ball is hit, it’s not coming off the bat with the expected force, while the wOBA and wOBACON metrics indicate that overall production is lagging behind league standards.

Yet, there is a silver lining. The team’s expected slugging percentage (xSLG) stands at .400, more than 100 points higher than the current slugging of .294. This discrepancy suggests the underlying tools are in place for a significant offensive boost. In other words, the hitters are making decent contact, and the numbers point to a potential rebound once the early-season jitters wear off. It’s a reminder that while the start to the season hasn’t been kind to the Twins’ batters, the data hints at improvements on the horizon.

As the season continues to unfold, it’s clear that Minnesota is facing its fair share of challenges, from pitching adjustments and bullpen transitions to offensive struggles. However, each of these issues comes with its own context. Ryan’s velocity hiccup is likely a temporary adjustment period after an injury-shortened season. Correa’s slow start appears to be more about bad luck and small sample sizes than a decline in talent, provided his plantar fasciitis stays at bay. Meanwhile, Varland’s initial struggles in the bullpen are a learning curve many relievers experience early in the season. And finally, while the offense is underperforming, the promising xSLG numbers offer hope that a turnaround is on the horizon.

For now, patience and perspective will be key. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and early-season fluctuations are par for the course. Fans would do well to keep an eye on these storylines but avoid overreacting to what are, at this stage, isolated incidents rather than definitive trends.

---

What other worries do you have about the team’s early performance? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

View full article

[LambchoP]

Correa is my biggest worry. He has a history of slow starts sure, but between spring and this season so far, he's got like 3 hits in like a month and a half. What's more concerning is every time he makes contact it's seemingly a grounder to SS. While it's good he's not striking out a lot, he's got to get the ball in the air more. I sure hope he can get things going because without a productive Correa we are doomed.

[D.C Twins]

Cody, it looks like you are in the bargaining phase of grief :)

[Karbo]

I have concerns about their "readiness" coming out of the gate. It seems to me there is a lack of concentration at times, and a lack of urgency at times.

[Whitey333]

I find it amazing that us overreacting fans are hammered.  So far the Twins have only played 1 and a half good games out of 7.  And their play early suggests the same malaise that infected the team during the collapse last season.  Correa gets a mulligan all the time it appears as he is the leader of the club on a very high contract.  There is nothing wrong with expecting more than an 080 batting average to date.  The fallacy of blaming things on the weather and bad ball and strike umpiring is just enabling the same excuses.  Both Correa and France in particular have jogged ( loafed) to first base several times already this season.  Is it too much to ask for an effort?  I really want this team to go far this year buy I just don't see it.  The laid back attitude fueled by a nonchalant  manager is getting old and tiring.  

[Woof Bronzer]

59 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I find it amazing that us overreacting fans are hammered.  So far the Twins have only played 1 and a half good games out of 7.  And their play early suggests the same malaise that infected the team during the collapse last season.  Correa gets a mulligan all the time it appears as he is the leader of the club on a very high contract.  There is nothing wrong with expecting more than an 080 batting average to date.  The fallacy of blaming things on the weather and bad ball and strike umpiring is just enabling the same excuses.  Both Correa and France in particular have jogged ( loafed) to first base several times already this season.  Is it too much to ask for an effort?  I really want this team to go far this year buy I just don't see it.  The laid back attitude fueled by a nonchalant  manager is getting old and tiring.  

Yeah forgive us fans who have seen this movie before.   Last August/September, last April, last 2 months of 2022, all of 2021....this is who Rocco's Twins are!  

And thank you for expecting that $30mil/yr buys at a bare minimum hustling down to first.  Recall last year's elimination game where Correa loafed to first on a bad throw that anyone running hard would have beat and extended the season one more out.  Seems to me Correa has entered his "just show up and collect a paycheck" phase of his career and I have no idea why Twins fans aren't calling out a proven cheater who once called himself the Christian Dior of baseball players for his lack of leadership and effort and just all around poor performance.  Good teams need good leaders who lead by example and instill a winning culture; we have a "leader" who trots to first when the season is on the line.    

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Yeah forgive us fans who have seen this movie before.   Last August/September, last April, last 2 months of 2022, all of 2021....this is who Rocco's Twins are!  

And thank you for expecting that $30mil/yr buys at a bare minimum hustling down to first.  Recall last year's elimination game where Correa loafed to first on a bad throw that anyone running hard would have beat and extended the season one more out.  Seems to me Correa has entered his "just show up and collect a paycheck" phase of his career and I have no idea why Twins fans aren't calling out a proven cheater who once called himself the Christian Dior of baseball players for his lack of leadership and effort and just all around poor performance.  Good teams need good leaders who lead by example and instill a winning culture; we have a "leader" who trots to first when the season is on the line.    

Correa is a problem. He's never been a consistant hitter and is NOT one of the games best offensive players. Take away his defense and he's barely above average. He's supposedly the "Leader" of the Team but plays like he's just there to collect his paycheck. Cheaters make for bad leaders because good leaders know it not right to cheat. Throw in a Manager who let's him be the way he is and you just compound the problem across the entire roster. You hit the nail on the head when you said leaders lead by example. When he is making millions more than others on the roster why would anyone else hustle more than he does. Thus lackadaisacal play which we have seen ever since he has arrived. This team will never reach the ultimate gaol with him as a Leader or Rocco as a Manager. Neither one has what it takes to Lead.

[dxpavelka]

but...the.....sky........is............falling

 

[Blyleven2011]

Why wasn't the jitters worked out in spring training ...

Why wasn't the team prepared the right way to start the season ...

Why is Rocco and his so called professional coaches still here trying very little to change this team into winners , falvey hired these coaches  ( his words not mine when he cleaned house , we have hired the top professionals at every level  ) ...

Falvey may have hired the top professionals for the minor leagues because they teach and a player developes  , but at the major league level this bunch of professionals ( coaching ) are failing to see the light to continue the teaching process at the hardest level  , it's plain and simple as the eye test doesn't lie , the team plays terrible defense and offense  ...

Oh and by the way , this team is not a homerun hitting team  , get over it and  start wishing for more singles and doubles and just a better consistency of play  ...

 

 

[Fatbat]

We got depth so I don’t have many worries beyond ownership not changing. The players will be fine. Its april and we will be rocking it all season!

[JD-TWINS]

Lewis being out is an issue for the offense, can’t ignore that.

Correa not performing anywhere near an acceptable level is a big issue, agreed.

Not acquiring a productive 1B or moving somebody there from within the organization (Lewis/Keaschall) seems to be a problem coming to fruition!

Those things said, they have 154 games left (95% of season) and if the entire coaching staff should be fired in Minnesota, then the rest of the Central Division staffs should be fired since the collective record of the other 4 teams is 12-20. It can’t be “early” for the Guardians and complete failure & essentially season over for the Twins - right?

7-13 last year & then 17 games over .500 on August 16………gotta let things evolve. If Ryan & Correa aren’t hurt last year and out most of the 2nd half…………

[RpR]

So many here use Spring Training does not matter as an excuse for their lousy Spring Training,;

ST matters a lot , you stink there, you will stink in regular season, especially if some of your best players are no longer with the team.

[joefish]

Do early season losses count less than mid or late season losses?

Nope.

[Peter]

After losing today non of this will matter.