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Minnesota’s early season performance has been a mixed bag, leaving fans scratching their heads and analysts mulling over what to expect as the season unfolds. At the same time, there are some reasons for concern, such as that much of the early turbulence can be chalked up to small sample sizes, timing, and baseball's natural ebbs and flows. Let’s break down a few of the key storylines that are fueling conversation.
Worry 1: Joe Ryan’s Velocity Dip
Ryan’s second outing of the season saw a noticeable decrease in velocity. He started the game with his fastball in the mid-90s and it dropped four-five mph by the time he left the game. Now, while a dip in velocity can raise alarm bells for many pitchers, it’s essential to consider the full context. Ryan has experienced similar fluctuations before, and there’s a good chance this is just a byproduct of his unique mechanics. It’s also worth noting that Ryan is coming off an injured list stint from last season. His ramp-up to the season isn’t following the usual script, and minor adjustments during early outings can be expected when a pitcher is easing back into full form.
At this point, though, there’s no compelling evidence that Ryan’s recent performance is more than a temporary blip. His track record suggests he has the tools to rebound, and a single outing isn’t enough to write him off for the season. Fans should keep an eye on him, but his early velocity issue is more a conversation starter than a cause for deep concern.
Worry 2: Carlos Correa’s Slow Start
Correa’s early season numbers are disappointing, especially coming on the heels of a poor performance this spring. With only two hits in his first 26 plate appearances, it’s easy to jump to conclusions. However, the small sample size tells a very different story when you dig deeper. One of the more telling metrics is Correa’s expected batting average (xBA), which sits about 150 points higher than his current .080 BA. This gap suggests that Correa is experiencing a streak of bad luck at the plate rather than a fundamental decline in his swing or approach.
There’s also a familiar pattern here. Correa has a history of slow starts with the Twins. Last season, he ramped up to a .755 OPS by the end of April, while in 2023, his OPS in April was only .634. These numbers indicate that while the start might be frustrating, it’s not necessarily indicative of what the rest of the season holds. One factor that does deserve a watchful eye is his plantar fasciitis. Should that issue flare up again, it could complicate his progress. But barring that, fans should remain patient. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and if Correa is anything like his past self, he’ll eventually find his rhythm.
Worry 3: Louis Varland’s Bullpen Transition
Varland was initially eyed as a potential late-inning weapon out of the bullpen. Unfortunately, his early outings have not provided the expected stability. In his first four appearances, Varland has given up runs in two, surrendering five hits and a walk across four innings. The numbers might seem alarming at first glance, especially his 63.6% hard-hit rate, the highest on the team. For a reliever, those are not sustainable figures.
However, it’s important to remember that relievers operate within incredibly small sample sizes. One or two tough outings can skew the numbers, and the team is known for giving its relievers ample opportunities to prove themselves. As healthy options start returning from injury, the coaching staff may need to rethink Varland’s role or adjust his usage. For now, though, the team appears content to let him continue gaining experience in the bullpen. The key will be whether Varland can tweak his approach to reduce the frequency of hard-hit balls.
Worry 4: Struggling to Find an Offensive Spark
Minnesota’s offense has also been a topic of intense scrutiny. The team currently finds itself in the bottom 7% of the league in several key metrics, including exit velocity, wOBA, and wOBAcon. These numbers paint a picture of an offense struggling to make solid contact and generate power consistently. The low exit velocity suggests that even when the ball is hit, it’s not coming off the bat with the expected force, while the wOBA and wOBACON metrics indicate that overall production is lagging behind league standards.
Yet, there is a silver lining. The team’s expected slugging percentage (xSLG) stands at .400, more than 100 points higher than the current slugging of .294. This discrepancy suggests the underlying tools are in place for a significant offensive boost. In other words, the hitters are making decent contact, and the numbers point to a potential rebound once the early-season jitters wear off. It’s a reminder that while the start to the season hasn’t been kind to the Twins’ batters, the data hints at improvements on the horizon.
As the season continues to unfold, it’s clear that Minnesota is facing its fair share of challenges, from pitching adjustments and bullpen transitions to offensive struggles. However, each of these issues comes with its own context. Ryan’s velocity hiccup is likely a temporary adjustment period after an injury-shortened season. Correa’s slow start appears to be more about bad luck and small sample sizes than a decline in talent, provided his plantar fasciitis stays at bay. Meanwhile, Varland’s initial struggles in the bullpen are a learning curve many relievers experience early in the season. And finally, while the offense is underperforming, the promising xSLG numbers offer hope that a turnaround is on the horizon.
For now, patience and perspective will be key. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and early-season fluctuations are par for the course. Fans would do well to keep an eye on these storylines but avoid overreacting to what are, at this stage, isolated incidents rather than definitive trends.
What other worries do you have about the team’s early performance? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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- DannySD, nclahammer, Fatbat and 1 other
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