Twins 2025 Arbitration Deals (or exchanged numbers)

[Seth Stohs]

Looks like no Twins will be heading to Arbitrations Cases... which is good.  Nice work by Doogie Wolfson and Dan Hayes to beat the national guys on most of these. 

 

[bean5302]

Man, seems like the Twins really beat down a few of their players. Ryan, Ober and Lewis all took deals way lower than arbitration estimates.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html

• $6.4MM actual (+3%) vs. estimate Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
• $4.55MM actual (-3%) vs. estimate Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
• $3.7MM actual (-14%) vs. estimate Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
• $2.4MM actual (-8%) vs. estimate Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
• $3.0MM actual (-21%) vs. estimate Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
• $2.1MM actual (0%) vs. estimate Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
• $4.1MM actual (+11%) vs. estimate Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
• $1.6MM actual (-30%) vs. estimate Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
  
  For Lewis, who wasn't happy at the end of last year, taking the deal he did is a bit surprising. Joe Ryan being willing to take a huge hit to estimates also surprises me. I wonder how the relationships between the Twins and some of these core players looks today?

[nicksaviking]

39 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I wonder how the relationships between the Twins and some of these core players looks today?

Not sure if the Pohlad's care any longer. 

Weird that the players wouldn't fight tooth and nail knowing ownership is only concerned with the sale at this point. There must be some other angle that we (or just me) aren't considering.

[bean5302]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Not sure if the Pohlad's care any longer. 

Weird that the players wouldn't fight tooth and nail knowing ownership is only concerned with the sale at this point. There must be some other angle that we (or just me) aren't considering.

Are the Pohlad's actively involved in arbitration? My guess is no. I also think the Pohlad's have a reputation for treating their employees well so it would seem like something out of character.

Arbitration is a little different than it used to be a few years ago because arbitrators can't pick a mid-point value. One of the biggest problems I feel exists in arbitration is the expectation values are based on old school metrics. For a guy like Jax, that means saves, which he doesn't earn. It wouldn't surprise me if the Twins said they were going to offer $2MM to him in arbitration, if Jax countered with the $4MM he should have earned, it's likely the arbiter would go with the $2MM number and Jax could get hosed. He at least had the $350k bonus for pre-arb guys to fall back on? For a guy like Lewis, he might have been concerned about batting average, or the comments in the media at the end of the year impacting him if the Twins went in with a lowball like $1.25MM and Lewis was countering with $2.5MM, etc.

Or perhaps the Twins and Lewis are discussing a long term deal so avoiding arbitration is just a formality... or maybe Lewis is truly disgruntled and is looking to be traded at a cheaper price? Who knows? Lewis is a Boras client so rolling over doesn't seem all that commonplace.

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Or perhaps the Twins and Lewis are discussing a long term deal so avoiding arbitration is just a formality... or maybe Lewis is truly disgruntled and is looking to be traded at a cheaper price? Who knows? Lewis is a Boras client so rolling over doesn't seem all that commonplace.

I can't imagine the Pohlads would do any more big money extensions before closing up shop. 

No matter when a sale happens, at this point Falvey will be in charge through at least the 2025 season though; it's too late to replace him. So I suppose it's possible that Falvey and Boras have knowledge the general public doesn't and know which way the wind is blowing in terms of new owners.

But that would imply a healthy level of optimism that I have been unwilling to bet on concerning the future ownership of this club. I'd be happy if my skepticism turns out to be unfounded and we get a sugar daddy though.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Man, seems like the Twins really beat down a few of their players. Ryan, Ober and Lewis all took deals way lower than arbitration estimates.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html

• $6.4MM actual (+3%) vs. estimate Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
• $4.55MM actual (-3%) vs. estimate Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
• $3.7MM actual (-14%) vs. estimate Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
• $2.4MM actual (-8%) vs. estimate Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
• $3.0MM actual (-21%) vs. estimate Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
• $2.1MM actual (0%) vs. estimate Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
• $4.1MM actual (+11%) vs. estimate Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
• $1.6MM actual (-30%) vs. estimate Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
  
  For Lewis, who wasn't happy at the end of last year, taking the deal he did is a bit surprising. Joe Ryan being willing to take a huge hit to estimates also surprises me. I wonder how the relationships between the Twins and some of these core players looks today?

Arbitration dealings are notoriously nasty. Shouldn't expect that to be any different outside the actual cases. The team is always going to offer the lowest number they think they can and the player is always going to go for the highest they think they can. One would hope the agents prepared the players for what the numbers were going to look like and feelings aren't too hurt today, but I'm sure there's a few bruised egos in there when the numbers were initially heard.

Ryan and Ober are surprising. Lewis is a really tough case with his lack of games played so that's a little tougher to get a read on, but it is quite a bit lower.

[AlwaysinModeration]

It looks like they saved about $2mm, which might be enough for a free agent signing (or even two).  If the Twins FO are under strict orders not to raise payroll, this may be what they have to do to sign anyone.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Also, in the Dan Hayes piece in the Athletic, he notes that previous Twins who went to arbitration included Nick Gordon (traded), Jose Berrios (traded), and Luiz Arraez was about to go to arbitration, but they traded him before they even got there!

So, if you like playing on the Twins, don’t go to arbitration.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Also, in the Dan Hayes piece in the Athletic, he notes that previous Twins who went to arbitration included Nick Gordon (traded), Jose Berrios (traded), and Luiz Arraez was about to go to arbitration, but they traded him before they even got there!

So, if you like playing on the Twins, don’t go to arbitration.

Going to arb and becoming a Player Rep seem to be two of the quickest ways out of town.

[stringer bell]

If the Twins "saved" between $1.5M and $2M, then they would "only" be about $8M over on payroll. Paddack's contract might take care of cost cutting, but it would leave zero for acquisitions.

Did Ryan's injury drop his arb value? I do also believe Lewis' relatively small number of games played through 2+ seasons lowered his arbitration number.  

 

[tony&rodney]

The 26 person roster payroll sits at $131M. Add our buddy Dobnak = $134M.

Adding 14 folks on 40 person brings the payroll up as does adding the MLB fees for benefits and bonuses. 

I don't believe there are any conversations about reducing the payroll at all. There are likely some discussions about the value of spending an additional unknown amount, maybe a guess like $6M added. A reduction from moving a player or three via trades is probably more tied to how that makes the 2025 roster more competitive.

[Doctor Gast]

Nice savings. I imagine that Lewis has high standards & this year was well below it so he settled for less. Any extension talk should be for Lewis.

[bean5302]

The real issue is previous arbitration values impact future arbitration salaries. Lewis taking $1.6MM doesn't just impact this year. It impacts his comp for the next 3 years.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Remind me which arbitration players got some of the bonus money handed out for results?

Perhaps that alleviated their need somewhat, although it probably shouldn't have affected this process.

[DocBauer]

OK, time out here.

I don't recall the exact numbers, but Berrios and the Twins weren't exactly miles apart as I recall. Berrios stated he wanted to go through the arbitration process for himself, but also to help set a precedent for future players. He was traded because the Twins wouldn't offer him an extension beyond a certain number, $ and years. He wasn't traded because he went through arbitration. 

Gordon went through arbitration and was traded for a LH Okert. The Twins wanted pitching help and it wasn't certain if Gordon was even going to make the roster or not. Neither player was a fixture for either team and both ended up being cut.

Arraez was traded in a deal to bring in a front of the rotation SP in Lopez.

Tell me where and how why the Twins did anything negative or vindictive for any of these 3 examples brought up?

Secondly, the Twins have seldom ever actually GONE to arbitration with their players the past several seasons. Only 3 examples brought up here: a SP, a borderline ML utility player since DFA by his team, and a quality hitter traded for a front line SP. Many comments have been made in various articles over the years by FO personel and agents that the Falvey lead FO was held in high regard for being open and honest in their dealings. This includes super agent Boras who I can't recall ever saying a single negative thing about the current FO.

Lastly, while the Ryan and Lewis numbers are a bit surprising, most of the numbers listed here are pretty close to projected estimates. ESTIMATES. And also, NONE of these players WENT through arbitration. They were all OFFERED arbitration. These were numbers agreed to between the Twins and the players and their agents.

Ryan or Lewis and their agents thought the deals were unfair and wrong? They could have GONE to arbitration and argued a case. They didn't. 

Is anger and frustration for the Pohlad's and their budget and the handcuffing of the FO so tremendous that we have to invent anger and angst toward the FO that we have to invent new theories of underhanded dealings?

Ryan and Lewis can easily earn a couple $100K back, plus, with good, healthy seasons. Both may be in line for extensions with a new ownership on hand. MILLIONS easily make up a couple hundred K really easily.

This was NOT arbitration. These were all agreements made between the FO and the players and their reps INSTEAD of going to arbitration. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Fair, and it is worth reviewing each case rather than making some blanket conclusion.  However, it is probably also true that the FO may feel less allegiance to a player who goes through the arbitration process to the end.  

[Jocko87]

13 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Did Ryan's injury drop his arb value? I do also believe Lewis' relatively small number of games played through 2+ seasons lowered his arbitration number. 

I don't know that its changed much but arbitrators have been notorious for leaning on counting stats rather than short peaks or half seasons.  Missing significant time with an injury has always been a killer for arbitration.  Stewart is another.

Fact of the matter is that Lewis didn't have much of a case.  He had a hot few months but otherwise  was injured or was meh minus on the field.  Tantalizing, yes, but not worth much in arbitration.  It mirrors Boras attitude change as well.  They know.  He's gotta put it on the field.

[thelanges5]

Time to update the payroll blueprint. Armchair GMs need fresh numbers to plan the Twins remaining offseason moves ⚾️

[Linus]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

OK, time out here.

I don't recall the exact numbers, but Berrios and the Twins weren't exactly miles apart as I recall. Berrios stated he wanted to go through the arbitration process for himself, but also to help set a precedent for future players. He was traded because the Twins wouldn't offer him an extension beyond a certain number, $ and years. He wasn't traded because he went through arbitration. 

Gordon went through arbitration and was traded for a LH Okert. The Twins wanted pitching help and it wasn't certain if Gordon was even going to make the roster or not. Neither player was a fixture for either team and both ended up being cut.

Arraez was traded in a deal to bring in a front of the rotation SP in Lopez.

Tell me where and how why the Twins did anything negative or vindictive for any of these 3 examples brought up?

Secondly, the Twins have seldom ever actually GONE to arbitration with their players the past several seasons. Only 3 examples brought up here: a SP, a borderline ML utility player since DFA by his team, and a quality hitter traded for a front line SP. Many comments have been made in various articles over the years by FO personel and agents that the Falvey lead FO was held in high regard for being open and honest in their dealings. This includes super agent Boras who I can't recall ever saying a single negative thing about the current FO.

Lastly, while the Ryan and Lewis numbers are a bit surprising, most of the numbers listed here are pretty close to projected estimates. ESTIMATES. And also, NONE of these players WENT through arbitration. They were all OFFERED arbitration. These were numbers agreed to between the Twins and the players and their agents.

Ryan or Lewis and their agents thought the deals were unfair and wrong? They could have GONE to arbitration and argued a case. They didn't. 

Is anger and frustration for the Pohlad's and their budget and the handcuffing of the FO so tremendous that we have to invent anger and angst toward the FO that we have to invent new theories of underhanded dealings?

Ryan and Lewis can easily earn a couple $100K back, plus, with good, healthy seasons. Both may be in line for extensions with a new ownership on hand. MILLIONS easily make up a couple hundred K really easily.

This was NOT arbitration. These were all agreements made between the FO and the players and their reps INSTEAD of going to arbitration. 

Figuring out ways to be angry and offended is standard fare in our society these days.