Could the twins take a flyer on a former top prospect first baseman?

[TaterTot]

The news that the tigers have signed Gleyber Torres to a one year deal, and are moving young second basemen Colt Keith over to first base leaves the future of former top prospect Spencer Torkelson in question. While regarded as one of mlb’s primer prospects after being selected first overall in the 2020 draft, it has not really panned out for Torkelson at the major league level. Torkelson has only batted 221. and posted a -0.3 war over parts of three seasons with the tigers. It seems likely that the tigers would be looking for a trade for Torkelson, to clear space on the roster. So, why couldn't the twins take a flyer and trade for divison foe Torkelson? Maybe a change of scenery would do him good, and he could platoon with talented but oft-injured and inconsistent Jose Miranda at first base, and hold down the fort if Miranda were to get injured again. He is only one season removed from playing 159 games and hitting 31 homers. He would be a cheap option for the cost-aware twins, and may only field one or two minor leaguers and some cash in return.   

[stringer bell]

Torkelson finished 2023 red hot, but has otherwise been very disappointing. If the price is right, it’s worth taking a chance on him, particularly because he would fill an area of need. 

[LambchoP]

If he has minor league options still maybe. I really wish we would trade for Diaz from the Rays. He'd be a great upgrade to our lineup and is a realistic chance to get him. Doubt it though. Other than minor league crap, we're not getting any reinforcements. It's a shame...

[Parfigliano]

Torkelson middle name is "Enochs".  Don't think TCs ever had an "Enochs".  

[nicksaviking]

Maybe, just to stash him in St. Paul.

I'd think Detroit would have the same idea though. It's not like Keith was very good last year. Or really any of their young hitters. For all the hoopla about their offensive prospects, only Riley Greene has taken off. Yeah, they made the playoffs, but that team's failure with prospects is looking eerily similar to the White Sox from about four or five years ago.

[bean5302]

Torkelson was a .219/.295/.374 OPS .669 wRC+ 92 hitter last year. Torkelson does bring quite a bit of power to his game, but he'll need to adjust his game to start swinging at more offerings and not just waiting for meatballs. It's not like Torkelson has no value. He's still pre-arb, he has an option, and he'll be 26 next year. Projection models expect him to be an above average hitter overall.

There will be teams interested in Torkelson, who bashed 31 home runs in 2023, and there is still potential there to have a Larnach-like change in approach and results. Torkelson took a cut at only 23% of pitches outside the zone last year (lowest 15%), and offered at a below average 65% of pitches in the zone. Contact rates in the zone were good. Kind of similar to how Larnach was so unlikely to swing. 

A "flyer" is generally used for guys who've been DFA'd and are on waivers. That's not going to happen to Torkelson, and he won't be had by the Twins for less than a top 10 prospect. He'd cost a guy like Marco Raya or better. Baseballtradevalues has Torkelson at +8.4 in value right now, and the Tigers aren't going to sell cheap to the Twins.

[tony&rodney]

31 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Torkelson was a .219/.295/.374 OPS .669 wRC+ 92 hitter last year. Torkelson does bring quite a bit of power to his game, but he'll need to adjust his game to start swinging at more offerings and not just waiting for meatballs. It's not like Torkelson has no value. He's still pre-arb, he has an option, and he'll be 26 next year. Projection models expect him to be an above average hitter overall.

There will be teams interested in Torkelson, who bashed 31 home runs in 2023, and there is still potential there to have a Larnach-like change in approach and results. Torkelson took a cut at only 23% of pitches outside the zone last year (lowest 15%), and offered at a below average 65% of pitches in the zone. Contact rates in the zone were good. Kind of similar to how Larnach was so unlikely to swing. 

A "flyer" is generally used for guys who've been DFA'd and are on waivers. That's not going to happen to Torkelson, and he won't be had by the Twins for less than a top 10 prospect. He'd cost a guy like Marco Raya or better. Baseballtradevalues has Torkelson at +8.4 in value right now, and the Tigers aren't going to sell cheap to the Twins.

Agree with this. No way Detroit just hands off Tork to a divisional foe. There may be a few teams willing to acquire Torkelson and return a useful player to Detroit or the Tigers keep him. The Tigres are looking better and may be adding a decent starting pitcher before long. Some thought Detroit was lucky last year. I actually like a few of their bats and see them improving next season.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I’m all in favor of trying a move like this. If nothing else it’s someone with experience at 1b defensively. 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Torkelson was a .219/.295/.374 OPS .669 wRC+ 92 hitter last year. Torkelson does bring quite a bit of power to his game, but he'll need to adjust his game to start swinging at more offerings and not just waiting for meatballs. It's not like Torkelson has no value. He's still pre-arb, he has an option, and he'll be 26 next year. Projection models expect him to be an above average hitter overall.

There will be teams interested in Torkelson, who bashed 31 home runs in 2023, and there is still potential there to have a Larnach-like change in approach and results. Torkelson took a cut at only 23% of pitches outside the zone last year (lowest 15%), and offered at a below average 65% of pitches in the zone. Contact rates in the zone were good. Kind of similar to how Larnach was so unlikely to swing. 

A "flyer" is generally used for guys who've been DFA'd and are on waivers. That's not going to happen to Torkelson, and he won't be had by the Twins for less than a top 10 prospect. He'd cost a guy like Marco Raya or better. Baseballtradevalues has Torkelson at +8.4 in value right now, and the Tigers aren't going to sell cheap to the Twins.

I always appreciate your thoughtful responses.

Does Willi Castro fit Detroits needs? How does the value of one year of control for Willi Castro compare to the value of a pre-arb Torkelson with an option? Castro is certainly projects to be more valuable next year but Torkelson’s upside over time is valuable.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I always appreciate your thoughtful responses.

Does Willi Castro fit Detroits needs? How does the value of one year of control for Willi Castro compare to the value of a pre-arb Torkelson with an option? Castro is certainly projects to be more valuable next year but Torkelson’s upside over time is valuable.

When I saw this signing, I had the same thought regarding Paddack. 

[jorgenswest]

1 minute ago, IndianaTwin said:

When I saw this signing, I had the same thought regarding Paddack. 

Does Paddack have any excess value? 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Does Willi Castro fit Detroits needs?

He didn't, a couple of years ago anyway.  😀

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Does Paddack have any excess value? 

I would argue he has some yes

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Does Paddack have any excess value? 

Does Paddack have any value? 

Fixed it for you

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Does Paddack have any value? 

Fixed it for you

Honestly didn’t appreciate the fix. I wouldn’t put it that way for a guy who has had to fight so hard to return from devastating injuries. He had 1 WAR last year and steamer projects him for 1.4 next year. @Cory Engelhardt  is probably right. Is it enough excess for the Tigers?

[Cory Engelhardt]

40 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Honestly didn’t appreciate the fix. I wouldn’t put it that way for a guy who has had to fight so hard to return from devastating injuries. He had 1 WAR last year and steamer projects him for 1.4 next year. @Cory Engelhardt  is probably right. Is it enough excess for the Tigers?

I doubt Detroit would want Paddack, but I suppose you never know. I was mostly just saying I think Paddack has value around the league generally. 
That’s unrelated to me saying I’d be ok taking a chance on Torkelson here

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I doubt Detroit would want Paddack, but I suppose you never know. I was mostly just saying I think Paddack has value around the league generally. 
That’s unrelated to me saying I’d be ok taking a chance on Torkelson here

Paddack definitely has value. He fits at the back end of many MLB rotations and could be quite effective as a relief pitcher. If the Twins can carry his contract and ignore how much he gets paid, I would like to see Paddack in the bullpen. He would be a real asset there, but just muck things up as a starter taking away outings from Festa. Still seems like he will get traded when the free agent pitchers have signed. If so we might be surprised by the return (not a top prospect).

[Linus]

17 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Does Paddack have any excess value? 

I would also say yes. Who knows how Detroit values Torkelson but my guess is Paddack isn’t enough. I do think Paddack could bring back a b level prospect. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I would be surprised if the Tigers traded him to the Twins...unless the Twins made an insane offer, and I don't think they would. All things being equal, trade him outside the division. 

[DocBauer]

Looking for someone like Torkelson is a smart move. More or less, it's the same kind of move that brought us Willi Castro. But Torkelson is not only in the same division...meaning Detroit is going to ask for more in any kind of trade...but he's also still only 24yo. He's had a bad season, a great season, followed by a bad season again. At 25yo, if he were a Twin, would we be anxious to trade him away? I think if Detroit moves him, it would be out of the division.

As to Paddack...since he was brought up...I do think he's got value out there on the market. He's under 30yo still, is only going to cost $7.52M on a 1yr deal, and if he can maintain his velocity better in 2025, he could help a lot of rotation's back end. I wouldn't mind keeping him. But if Falvey wants to make some changes, he's going to have to move some guys as well. And Paddack is an obvious choice. I've read speculation that a deal of Paddack to the Cubs for one of their young RHOF might be smart for both clubs. 

[IndianaTwin]

6 hours ago, Linus said:

I would also say yes. Who knows how Detroit values Torkelson but my guess is Paddack isn’t enough. I do think Paddack could bring back a b level prospect. 

 

3 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I would be surprised if the Tigers traded him to the Twins...unless the Twins made an insane offer, and I don't think they would. All things being equal, trade him outside the division. 

 

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Looking for someone like Torkelson is a smart move. More or less, it's the same kind of move that brought us Willi Castro. But Torkelson is not only in the same division...meaning Detroit is going to ask for more in any kind of trade...but he's also still only 24yo. He's had a bad season, a great season, followed by a bad season again. At 25yo, if he were a Twin, would we be anxious to trade him away? I think if Detroit moves him, it would be out of the division.

As to Paddack...since he was brought up...I do think he's got value out there on the market. He's under 30yo still, is only going to cost $7.52M on a 1yr deal, and if he can maintain his velocity better in 2025, he could help a lot of rotation's back end. I wouldn't mind keeping him. But if Falvey wants to make some changes, he's going to have to move some guys as well. And Paddack is an obvious choice. I've read speculation that a deal of Paddack to the Cubs for one of their young RHOF might be smart for both clubs. 

These are more or less my thoughts in making the Paddack suggestion. I agree that having a potential trade partner inside the division makes it more complex.

That said, of the Paddack/Vazquez/Castro triumvirate, I think Paddack is the one closest to redundant on the roster. If they do indeed need to cut some money, I think he's the best option to trade for an MLB pre-arb player such as Torkelson. I don't know if he is enough to get someone once as highly regarded as Torkelson, but it seems he has enough value to reduce the level of an accompanying prospect to trade.  

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

 

 

These are more or less my thoughts in making the Paddack suggestion. I agree that having a potential trade partner inside the division makes it more complex.

That said, of the Paddack/Vazquez/Castro triumvirate, I think Paddack is the one closest to redundant on the roster. If they do indeed need to cut some money, I think he's the best option to trade for an MLB pre-arb player such as Torkelson. I don't know if he is enough to get someone once as highly regarded as Torkelson, but it seems he has enough value to reduce the level of an accompanying prospect to trade.  

I tend to agree. If I could amend my "you're the GM" article...and I'm not sure it does any good to do so at this point...I like the idea of Paddack for a young, controllable RHOF as I suggested, stealing the idea from another website I fully admit.

I think we're all in agreement that Vazquez is probably the next in line to be potentially moved. I'd include a decent but lesser prospect to try and get the entirety of his $10M gone, or as much as I could. At that point, Falvey needs to work on a prospect package for a young catcher. We're going to need one come 2026 to team with Jeffers, why not do so now? Then maybe grab someone like Elias Diaz for $2M for a veteran backup for now?

Personally, I think moving Castro really hurts the Twins depth and roster flexibility and I just don't do that.

Again, I kind of like adding Josh Bell on a 1yr deal to provide a solid switch hitter to DH, share some 1B duty with Miranda, and provide a potentially quality veteran PH when not in the lineup.

I think that all fits in the proposed payroll, but probably not enough $ left for a FA LHRP, unless ownership budged some on their $ numbers.

The Torkelson idea is a sound one. I just don't know if it's practical or not, assuming Detroit would even consider moving him. 

[bean5302]

On 12/28/2024 at 1:16 PM, jorgenswest said:

I always appreciate your thoughtful responses.

Does Willi Castro fit Detroits needs? How does the value of one year of control for Willi Castro compare to the value of a pre-arb Torkelson with an option? Castro is certainly projects to be more valuable next year but Torkelson’s upside over time is valuable.

Willi Castro fits the needs of 29 teams. He'd have a roster spot anywhere, honestly, but how much surplus value he has elsewhere vs. how much he has to the Twins is another question. The fact Castro is still a member of the Twins confuses me a little as Minnesota is probably about $140MM in payroll at the moment, not that you'd know it from the doom and gloom comments around here lately, LOL.

BTV has Castro's value down from the EoY, now at +8.9 where it was at +15.1 at the end of the season (BTV evaluates player value based on market conditions and projection models). I'm not sure why BTV's projection has soured on him so much, but they have his projected production at 15.0 right now, which is less than 2 WAR next year where it was closer to 3 WAR as I recall. Anyway, a lot will depend on how a team values Castro's defense. I'd say Castro will be viewed as a 2-3 WAR player, depending on the team evaluating him, but that is a huge swing in value. A 3 WAR player actively helps carry your team to the playoffs whereas a 2 WAR player just doesn't hurt your team trying to make the playoffs. Essentially, that's the difference between +9MM value and +15MM value.

In regard to what that means in the real world... for a guy like Castro, probably 1 extra mid level prospect. No team is likely to trade a top 5 org prospect for 1 year of Castro as top prospects are highly coveted (overvalued). Teams are more willing to package a couple org #10-15 guys, and maybe a depth guy with some upside. 

Falvey always seems a day late and a dollar short to trade parties, though. Waiting out the market looking for the clearance deal of a century.