Baseball Remains Broken, Again, Yet Again

[SteveLV]

Soto's deal is REDONKULOUS.

Good for him, terrible for any resemblance of fairness in my favorite game.  Gee, why weren't the Twins in on him? :)

Salary Cap and Floor are REQUIRED for this sport to survive.

[Craig Arko]

Indeed, I expect MLB as we currently know it to go belly up before that contract is complete.

[Vanimal46]

17 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Salary Cap and Floor are REQUIRED for this sport to survive.

This plus full, equal revenue sharing. NFL and NBA are running laps around MLB because they learned long ago that competitive balance is the key to growth. If this divide between the haves and have nots continues to grow in MLB it will be a niche sport before we know it. 

[Mike Sixel]

There is a wider variety of WS champions than NBA champions over the last twenty or so years......

I don't think you can compare the NFL to any other sports' league, given its schedule length.

[The Great Hambino]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

This plus full, equal revenue sharing. NFL and NBA are running laps around MLB because they learned long ago that competitive balance is the key to growth. If this divide between the haves and have nots continues to grow in MLB it will be a niche sport before we know it. 

Agreed.  A cap, a legitimate floor, and substantial revenue sharing are all needed to fix this.  It doesn't work without all three elements, and all three parties - players, big-market owners with their own RSN, and other owners - will have to be willing to work together to get there (at this point, the concerns of the two groups of owners are so divergent that they might as well be different parties from a CBA negotiating perspective).

The cap will get most of the headlines in the next round of negotiations, but I think the willingness to agree on a floor will be the biggest barrier to coming to a workable solution

[The Great Hambino]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There is a wider variety of WS champions than NBA champions over the last twenty or so years......

I don't think you can compare the NFL to any other sports' league, given its schedule length.

I think that's more due to the randomness of a baseball postseason than any indication of overall equity in the sport relative to the NBA.  The NFL is certainly its own animal.

The Timberwolves are in a situation where they are finding creative ways to not go too far over their cap, or second apron, or whatever it is (I don't have the PhD in economics required to understand the NBA's salary cap rules).  They're actually being reined in to keep their roster spending in line with the Lakers and Knicks.

Try replacing the team names in that sentence with Twins, Dodgers and Yankees.  That sounds like something that's about as likely as me being the Twins' answer at first base

[Mike Sixel]

I think there are some serious difficulties in changing how baseball works.....

Other sports can really be dominated by a handful of elite players, and rookies. Not true in baseball at all.

A team needs 40 players to get thru most years. There aren't enough good players to go around. The lack of FA until a player is past his prime makes signing FAs not always a good investment, but if you want a floor, you will force awful teams to sign veterans to real money, and play them instead of youth. 

Just changing how money works isn't going to help. It just means the A's sign 1-3 players that suck every few years to good deals, but they still don't win. And they slow down the development of their young players. 

You'll have to make FA come sooner (meaning wealthy teams have more good players to add to their team, ironically) to give mid market teams a chance to add actually good players in FA. 

The NBA is utterly dominated by a handful of elite teams, because of team size. There are just as many teams out of the playoffs by mid season as there are in baseball. It's marketed better and more interesting to watch to fans.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

NFL and NBA are running laps around MLB because they learned long ago that competitive balance is the key to growth

If I'm not mistaken, the revenue sharing in MLB is comparable to the NBA.

The salary caps do nothing but make sure the billionaire owners get wealthier instead of passing that revenue to the labor. 

[Unwinder]

I think the random chance in baseball has obscured the parity issue quite a bit, but it's harder to ignore after a Dodgers/Yankees world series after the Dodgers spent a billion dollars.

The NBA has historically been a bad league for parity, but I think they've legitimately fixed it in the last few years. It's really hard to build a superteam under the new CBA, and really hard to keep a dynasty together. A few mismanaged cellar-dwellers might stay irrelevant, but I think the era of the same teams dominating year after year is over. I have no idea if a similar cap structure could ever work with baseball though, since baseball rosters have so many players.

[Vanimal46]

14 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I think the random chance in baseball has obscured the parity issue quite a bit, but it's harder to ignore after a Dodgers/Yankees world series after the Dodgers spent a billion dollars.

The NBA has historically been a bad league for parity, but I think they've legitimately fixed it in the last few years. It's really hard to build a superteam under the new CBA, and really hard to keep a dynasty together. A few mismanaged cellar-dwellers might stay irrelevant, but I think the era of the same teams dominating year after year is over. I have no idea if a similar cap structure could ever work with baseball though, since baseball rosters have so many players.

I just looked it up out of curiosity… since 2000 there have been 16 teams that won a World Series, and 11 teams that won an NBA title. So they are getting closer to parity. 

The salary cap/floor/revenue sharing baseball needs to adapt is far beyond my comprehension. It won’t be perfect at first, but something needs to happen otherwise growth will grind to a halt. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to be a fan of a team in central USA when we can’t afford star FAs or retaining home grown stars. Kansas City has next to 0 chance affording a 15/$800+ million contract to Bobby Witt Jr. when he’s eligible for FA. 

[SteveLV]

True revenue sharing, transparency from ownership, and guaranteeing players a certain percentage of the revenue pie are all keys.

Anyone who suggests the NFL and MLB have equal parity are just simply, wrong.

Newly drafted players should only sign contracts of limited length--say 5 or 6 years, or until a certain age is reached, like 25, then get to go to FA.

In other words, I want the NFL system grafted to MLB.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

True revenue sharing, transparency from ownership, and guaranteeing players a certain percentage of the revenue pie are all keys.

Anyone who suggests the NFL and MLB have equal parity are just simply, wrong.

Newly drafted players should only sign contracts of limited length--say 5 or 6 years, or until a certain age is reached, like 25, then get to go to FA.

In other words, I want the NFL system grafted to MLB.

100% have to have earlier FA for anything like this to work. 

[SteveLV]

Football has 5 years for 1st round picks, 4 years for everyone else.  That might make sense, possibly one year longer from MLB if player is drafted out of HS.

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Football has 5 years for 1st round picks, 4 years for everyone else.  That might make sense, possibly one year longer from MLB if player is drafted out of HS.

26 and older. If you aren't signed to a MLB deal, you are a free agent. So, even players on the forty man. 

[Parfigliano]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

26 and older. If you aren't signed to a MLB deal, you are a free agent. So, even players on the forty man. 

Yes...I'm a free agent!!!!

[Craig Arko]

I’m an expensive agent.

[The Great Hambino]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

100% have to have earlier FA for anything like this to work. 

Definitely.  Among the many issues plaguing MLB is the jump from draconian market suppression in the player's first six years to a true free market after that.  Arbitration attempts to close that gap but does a pretty poor job of it.  To bridge the gap, we need a higher minimum salary, shorter arb time period, or both.  The owners want more revenue sharing, but the players don't trust them to use that revenue sharing on player salaries (and given the actions of the owners over the years, they shouldn't).

A floor is the mechanism that ensures the owners use their revenue sharing on payroll.  The other changes to pre-free agency salary structure ensure that the labor market doesnt get out of whack.

The arbitration system was developed to allow cheaper teams cost control on their players for the start of their careers.  This isn't needed if they get the revenue sharing necessary to fund their rosters ... as long as they actually use it to fund their rosters

[Whitey333]

MLB needs some kind of salary cap with a floor.  The disparity between revenue and non revenue teams is growing.  I believe the current collective bargaining agreement has a reopening clause for the owners of December 1, 2026.  I wouldn't be surprised if the owners lockout the players.  There may not be a season then.  Maybe that's what MLB needs to get it's house in order.

[Eris]

Trying to be optimistic about this. In the short term the Mets will benefit a lot. However,  the backend of the contract is likely to be drag on their payroll. Soto’s contract is front loaded, but it is still 46 million per year until his age 41 season. 
Consider the Yankees as an example. They have not won a World Series since 2009 despite repeatedly having one of the top payrolls in baseball. This year was there only appearance since their last title. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

Trying to be optimistic about this. In the short term the Mets will benefit a lot. However,  the backend of the contract is likely to be drag on their payroll. Soto’s contract is front loaded, but it is still 46 million per year until his age 41 season. 
Consider the Yankees as an example. They have not won a World Series since 2009 despite repeatedly having one of the top payrolls in baseball. This year was there only appearance since their last title. 

There is no drag if they are willing to spend. This idea that winning doesn't have a cost? It has a cost. The cost in this case is the far future. They might not win, but they are certainly more likely to now. 

[nicksaviking]

On 12/9/2024 at 12:16 PM, Mike Sixel said:

There is a wider variety of WS champions than NBA champions over the last twenty or so years......

I don't think you can compare the NFL to any other sports' league, given its schedule length.

Right, but that's due to some NBA clubs being better run than others. Market size has much less impact in that league.

[Vanimal46]

20 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Right, but that's due to some NBA clubs being better run than others. Market size has much less impact in that league.

And that’s going to happen in any sports league. You’re going to have poorly run organizations, and star players can still choose desirable locations like NY, Los Angeles, or Miami. At least in the NFL and NBA, small markets can afford the star players just like the big markets. 

[nicksaviking]

24 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

And that’s going to happen in any sports league. You’re going to have poorly run organizations, and star players can still choose desirable locations like NY, Los Angeles, or Miami. At least in the NFL and NBA, small markets can afford the star players just like the big markets. 

And not just getting the star players in free agency, but being able to keep the ones they develop should they chose too.

[FargoFanMan]

There is never going to be a salary cap. Ever. Unless there’s a massive shakeup by the government which I don’t see happening. MLB and the MLBPA have designed the system for 2 types of people. Owners and veteran players. Follow the money. When the new CBA used more sticks rather than carrots for addressing the so called “rash” of teams “tanking” that led me to believe that the MLBPA was behind that rather than MLB. The best way to create a winning team is with cheaper homegrown players and trades. Players want revenue sharing money to go to the representatives of the players… Veterans. Players eligible for FA. So punish teams for “tanking” by only letting them draft in the top 10 2 years in a row. Pushing the winning strategy closer to FA and further away from homegrown. It’s a lot harder to build up a team picking from the middle than it is picking in the top 3-5(Astros, Orioles). Teams will be more forced to spend money recklessly (Severino) to not be penalized and strapped with guaranteed contracts for 3,4,5,6 years rather than spending a one time sum of $7M on a lottery ticket who could be a star or never make it to AA. So in order to compete the team has to take the chance on the FA rather than develop homegrown. Putting more money in veterans pockets and making it less viable to develop a strong farm. Not based on natural progression but based on sticks rather than carrots. Pushing money to the top rather than development. Just like everything else in corporate America today. Why would the MLB and MLBPA be any different. If you take the 30,000 foot view of the last 2 CBA’s it’s obvious. Oh and also, you’re small market teams that will soon be strapped by multiple year guaranteed contracts for middle of the road players rather than one time bonuses of potential star youngsters will have a harder time building a legitimate contender through development. Why? Because big business reigns and most fans are too short sighted to see what’s actually going on. The same thing that’s happened in every big business in America the last 30 years. People at the top making more money. Bigger owner profits. Bigger veteran salaries. Why? Because of teams “tanking”! Problem, reaction solution. When you control the narrative you control the outcome. So no, there won’t be a salary cap. There’s revenue sharing which acts as the same thing ensuring the owners get their cut and there’s a penalty for the floor and “tanking” ensuring the players get their guaranteed contracts. It’s simple if you just look at it for what it is. It’s a sport and a business. And you’re paying for all of it. Just like every other corporate product.

[tony&rodney]

Could there be a salary cap and floor. Yes. From 1940-1963 the highest marginal tax rates were above 80% peaking at 94%. This was beneficial to the country. The U. S. would benefit from 94% tax rates today and caps on incomes as well in the same manner that MLB could see positive results from such action. Possible? Sure. However, we also know that the trend currently is quickly going in the other direction. 

Folks should read the comment above from FargoFanMan to remind themselves of where the U. S. is at this point in time. MLB is right where the powers that be want it to be.