Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #5 Marco Raya

[Steve Lein]

Coming in at No. 5 on our Minnesota Twins top prospect list is a starting pitcher who, despite his lack of a so-called track record, has continued to sit near the top of this list.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Age: 22 (DOB: 8/7/2002)
2024 Stats (Double-A and Triple-A): 25 GS, 3-4, 4.05 ERA, .243 BAA, 1.36 WHIP, 103 K, 44 BB, 97 2/3 IP
ETA: 2025
2024 Ranking: 4

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

What’s To Like?
As a prep starting pitching prospect, the name of the game with Raya has always been potential. While he didn’t come with as much hype as (say) José Berríos, at the time of their drafting, I think there are some similarities to draw from there. Both are undersized, and came with fastball and slider combinations scouts could dream on. They were also plenty athletic, with clean deliveries they were able to repeat better than most high-school hurlers.

A shoulder injury kept Raya out of the 2021 season, but he was quick to make a mark for the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels when 2022 rolled around. The second start of his career saw him post career bests with six innings pitched and 10 strikeouts. It certainly looked a lot like Berríos.

His fastball now sits in the 94 MPH range, and will touch 96. His slider and curveball can both be swing-and-miss pitches and boast well-above-average spin rates. He worked hard on a cutter this past season and it is now his primary weapon against left-handed hitters, giving him another tool to get through full lineups.

His curveball, in particular, made an impression after a bump to triple-A with the St. Paul Saints for his final start of this past season.

That pitch has some serious depth, given how hard he throws it. The combination of mid-80s velocity and true curveball downward action is a highly valuable one. On this chart, you can see some of the names in his neighborhood, including one who makes clear what might be possible if Raya ends up in the bullpen.

What’s Left To Work On?
This might be the easiest question to answer for Raya as a starting pitching prospect and what they may have been lacking coming up through the system:

Volume.

What I mean by that is the amount of pitches and innings he has thrown since being taken by the Twins in the fourth round of the 2020 draft. It will be Year Five in the system for Raya, and although he didn’t really get started until the 2022 season, to say he has been handled with kid gloves since he was signed is an understatement.

Whether this has been because of some new pitching prospect plan that the Twins and Derek Falvey have created with health at the forefront, or if there’s something else afoot with Raya, he simply hasn’t pitched enough to really draw any concrete conclusions on his long-term outlook as a starting pitcher.

In his three years of pitching, he has started 64 games (appeared in 66), which doesn’t sound like a bad number by itself, but it comes with just 225 1/3 total innings. That means he has averaged less than three and a half innings per game for his career. In a starting pitcher's lens, he has pitched five or more innings in a game just 10 times, and six innings just twice (ironically, one of those outings was that tweet from me above). The most pitches he’s ever thrown in a game is 81, and during the 2023 season he never eclipsed 55.

Call me old-fashioned, but these aren’t the types of numbers I like to see out of starting pitching prospects. The baseline goal should be that they are capable of picking up a win on the stat sheet every time out, even if that statistic by itself means very little. We’ve seen time and time again the past few seasons with the Twins how an inability to work more than halfway through a game can tax a bullpen (and pitching staff as a whole) over a full season.

Raya is also still developing his arsenal and learning to control it. His changeup received positive reviews for its improvement last year, but he was throwing it very little or not at all at the tail end of the 2024 season. Instead, he began employing that cutter en masse, to go along with his 4-seam fastball and two breaking balls. His walk rate of 4.1 BB/9IP is also something you want to see come down in 2025.

What’s Next?
If I’m being honest, Raya was further down in my own list submitted for these rankings, in large part because of my concerns about his role. He came in as the fourth-ranked pitcher in the Twins system for me.

You should have the gist by now: That is because I want to see more of what Raya can do next year, but I also do not want you to think that somehow lowers the amount of potential he carries. If he responds well to a ramped-up workload, his ceiling is awfully high.

I have watched him dominate lineups. I have seen those high-spinning breaking balls fool hitters, and 96-MPH fastballs being dotted on the corners. I’m just not certain there isn’t a better reliever here than a starter at this point. You have to start treating him like one, eventually, to find out.

He was added to the Twins' 40-man roster on Tuesday, so it’s quite obvious they believe in that ceiling, too. Depending on what the Twins do with the active roster this offseason, there is a good chance he begins the year in the rotation of the St. Paul Saints. While he will certainly be down in the pecking order with the likes of David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Andrew Morris around, spot starts could be a possibility as soon as they become necessary, now that he's on that reserve list.

In a perfect world for me, Raya reaches the 100-inning mark for the first time in his career before August. If he is not already making starts for the Twins by then (which could be a good or bad thing) but showing he deserves a chance, they then find a place for him in the bullpen as they make a playoff push. They should push him above 125 total innings in the process. That would put him in line to be a full-time contributor in the majors while he is still just 23 years old the following season, or pretty much what the Twins got out of Simeon Woods Richardson this year.

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Do you agree with Raya’s ranking? What do you expect out of him during the 2025 season? Can he reach the majors with the Twins, and will he start for them?

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[jmlease1]

The talent level is high, but I agree: we do need to see whether he's capable of pitching deeper in games and holding up the 2nd and 3rd time through a lineup consistently. What do his pitches look like after 75 of them, and can he get through one more inning at that point?

I know he's had some injury concerns, and maybe we'll find that keeping his workload down in his development stages will pay out with better health now that he's closer to MLB (and eventually in the majors) but we need to see him throw in the 6th inning a lot more or he will look more like a reliever to me too.

He is really talented though! I think Morris and Lewis are both more advanced as starting pitching options (and Festa and Matthews for sure), but Raya might get a shot before either because of his addition to the 40-man. I can live with that, because they're not all that far off.

A starting pitching pipeline pecking order of Festa, Matthews, Raya, Adams, Morris, and Lewis is pretty good and opens up flexibility to move Paddack for salary relief if needed

[Rod Carews Birthday]

To me, Raya is the most puzzling pitching prospect the Twins have.  I'm not necessarily second guessing what the Twins have done -- they have more information on him than anyone else does -- but if Raya is to have a future as a major league pitcher, he's going to need to ramp up at some point.  Can he get to a higher pitch/innings limit this year?  That could answer a lot of questions.  I think at the moment I would have him below Morris but that could change rapidly as he moves along. 

Puzzling. . .  interesting!  Let's hope this materializes in a positive way!

[tony&rodney]

By June we will all know if the Twins continue with him as a starting pitcher or look to see what he can do as a reliever. If he only is allowed 3 innings and 50-75 pitches in 2025, it will tell us that Raya is destined for the pen. If Marco pitches into the 5th and 6th inning during May, he is still being groomed as a starter.

[chpettit19]

How big is Raya actually? The Twins site has him listed as 6'1" 170. That's no monster of a man, but he's not Payton Eeles sized (no offense to Payton, but he's not very tall). I'd just like to hear the explanation for why he's been so limited in his pitches and innings. Is it his size? Mechanics? Something in his medical exams? Something in their trackman readings? Why has he been managed this way? 

He's in AAA now. It's time. Either you're going to let the young man throw or you're not. If you're not then transition him to a multi-inning pen role and get him to the bigs as soon as he's ready if he's one of your best arms. If they come out of the gate treating him differently than the rest of the AAA arms I'm going to be concerned. I don't doubt they had a reason they felt was convincing to manage the way they have. But he's on the doorstep. It's time to get him ready to be a real MLB starter. That bar isn't that high. 6 innings and 90 pitches. Treat him like the rest of the AAA arms. Then let's get those BB numbers under control and he could be an exciting young piece!

[Steve Lein]

41 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How big is Raya actually? The Twins site has him listed as 6'1" 170. That's no monster of a man, but he's not Payton Eeles sized (no offense to Payton, but he's not very tall). I'd just like to hear the explanation for why he's been so limited in his pitches and innings. Is it his size? Mechanics? Something in his medical exams? Something in their trackman readings? Why has he been managed this way? 

One thing I dislike about player profiles for prospects: They don't ever update these numbers until the player reaches the Major Leagues. 6'1" and 170 is what Raya was listed at coming out of high school.

I have no doubt he's put on some muscle past 170 but I also don't think he's close to a stout 205 lbs like Jose Berrios is now, to keep that comparison going.

It's certainly not the prototypical starter's build, but there are also plenty of examples outside of that mold. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

How big is Raya actually?

Great question. This is something that we are unlikely to see in comments from Twins employees. I believe the gentle approach may have been due to his slight build. Jose Berrios was/is a physical beast, totally into the weights. It worked for him. I have no knowledge of whether Raya has any similar interests. We can be certain he has worked hard on building strength in various ways but he still looks small for someone as tall as he is.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

...I'd just like to hear the explanation for why he's been so limited in his pitches and innings. Is it his size? Mechanics? Something in his medical exams? Something in their trackman readings? Why has he been managed this way?...

He injured his shoulder losing a full year (2021) and dealt with minor shoulder issues again in 2022 and 2023.

[bean5302]

There are no correlations between pitcher size and durability, but Raya has dealt with shoulder issues more than once or twice as he's moved up through the system. He pitched 100 innings this past season (97.2) so he should be poised for pretty much a full workload out of the gate next year.

I'll be most interested to see if his stuff plays at AAA. Not overwhelming on the K's, lots and lots of walks has been Raya's M.O. in the upper minors. For all the accolades and upside, I think Raya is probably more Fernando Romero than Joe Ryan.

[rdehring]

Would it be so bad if Raya turned out to be the Twins next Griffin Jax?  Not in my view.

[Mike Sixel]

He's 22 in AAA....I'm not worried about the volume yet at all. He's 22, in AAA. He's clearly got some serious stuff, and I'm hopeful he can be extended. If he can't, I think he's possibly Jax like in the bullpen, which would be great. 

[NYCTK]

Marco Raya at #5 makes me laugh at this idea that the Twins currently possess a top farm system.

He's a good prospect. But he's a dime a dozen if we're being honest. I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see him traded away for major league talent. 

[DocBauer]

If you rank prospects due to talent and upside, why not have him in the top 10, whether 5 is correct or not doesn't matter. If you rank prospects more on numbers posted so far, he'd be out of the top 10. Neither way is right or wrong, just different ways of ranking.

He didn't throw after being selected. And then he had a non-surgery shoulder issue in 2021, as mentioned above. Then at least a smaller, similar setback that forced him to start later the next season. I'm not concerned it's an issue, just a reason for him being brought along more slowly than "normal". Just my opinion, but I'm guessing a young kid still growing in to his body, had a couple issues, so he's been nursed.

I hadn't even paid a lot of attention as to his actual IP until the end of the season, being so focused on the number of pitches thrown schedule he was on. But he ended up just shy of 100 IP and HEALTHY for the whole season. That tells me he's about to be let loose a bit more in 2025. Everyone is limited a bit their first couple of turns when a season starts. So he's probably not going to be throwing more than 70 pitches per game early. But over 100 IP for this upcoming season with a target of about 120-125 sounds right to me.

The command/control lacks consistency so far. But that comes from actual experience. And from all reports, all 4 pitches are solid, though I'm uncertain if he has a straight change as a 5th option. I'll echo previous comments that if he becomes another Jax I wouldn't be disappointed. But I'm pretty sure he's regarded as a legitimate starter by the Twins, and that's how he'll be treated this year. I don't think he's as ready as others on and not on the 40 man currently for MLB, but that's OK. 

[LambchoP]

This should be his year. Starting in the AAA rotation they will give him every opportunity to remain a starter. Look how long they gave Varland. Raya- just needs to show he's healthy and that he can pitch to a starters workload. Finish off developing that last pitch and find a way to limit the walks. Dude is still only 22 years old, he has plenty of time still. I'd say if he's healthy and effective maybe he gets a few spot starts later in the year with a chance at competing for a rotation spot in 2026. If not, guy could be a great bullpen weapons as well.  I do think they should give him every opportunity to stick as a starter first.

[Otaknam]

 Raya has been handled like he is coming off TJ surgery. No one outside the team seems to know why the team is so cautious. As for where he is in the young starters pecking order, I’m not as high as some others on the Festa, Matthews, Morris group, as they seem like mid rotation or lower starters. While that’s not a bad thing, no one in this group looks like a top of the rotation starter. And to compete for a long playoff run you need more than mid rotation guys, IMO. I hope I am wrong and a couple of these guys emerge as better than mid rotation players. 

[Wizard11]

I am hopeful with Raya but I can’t help thinking that a lot of minor league starters would look pretty good if they knew they only had to throw 60 pitches and not go 3 times thru the order.  

[twinstalker]

Yeah, who needs track record?  This #20 plus or minus.  Unreal.

[twinstalker]

It's going to be difficult fitting Eeles, Jenkins, Zebby, EmRod, and Keaschall into the top 4.  I'd have Spencer Bengard higher than Raya.

[Fatbat]

Not much love for Raya at #5 here. Understanding why the Twins don’t let him pitch deeper into games shouldn’t be so hard.  They have a plan and so far its working great because he is pitching in AAA at 22 yo.  He is going to be in the show soon enough so sit back and enjoy his journey to MLB!! 
We have been waiting for a decade to actually experience what a great pitching pipeline is like and now that we have one and a 22 yo in the middle of the next wave should be exciting for every fan.  Is winter over yet?? <———- something better to complain about than a prospect…..
 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We have been waiting for a decade to actually experience what a great pitching pipeline is like and now that we have one 

If they actually had a great pitching pipeline there would be more than 7 pitchers in the TwinsDaily top 30 prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If they actually had a great pitching pipeline there would be more than 7 pitchers in the TwinsDaily top 30 prospects.

They just graduated two starters.... Last year. 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They just graduated two starters.... Last year. 

The only starting pitcher they drafted and developed to the major leagues before that was Bailey Ober in 2021. Before that was Jose Berrios under Terry Ryan. That's 3 starting pitchers drafted and developed in 8 years, which is better than Terry Ryan's one SP every 6 years, but not enough to be called a "pitching pipeline". That is nothing special compared to other MLB teams. To fill the rotation with homegrown talent they need to produce a starting pitcher nearly every year.

It's a good thing they have done well in trades for starting pitchers (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Woods-Richardson).

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The only starting pitcher they drafted and developed to the major leagues before that was Bailey Ober in 2021. Before that was Jose Berrios under Terry Ryan. That's 3 starting pitchers drafted and developed in 8 years, which is better than Terry Ryan's one SP every 6 years, but not enough to be called a "pitching pipeline". That is nothing special compared to other MLB teams. To fill the rotation with homegrown talent they need to produce a starting pitcher nearly every year.

It's a good thing they have done well in trades for starting pitchers (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Woods-Richardson).

How do trades not count? I mean, SWR was developed in Minnesota. Ryan was traded for with an old guy with full control. Festa was a top 100 prospect last year. If you don't want to count those, that's your choice. But this idea only draft picks count means Cleveland is also not great, since two of their five were traded for or signed as a free agent. 

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How do trades not count? I mean, SWR was developed in Minnesota. Ryan was traded for with an old guy with full control. Festa was a top 100 prospect last year. If you don't want to count those, that's your choice. But this idea only draft picks count means Cleveland is also not great, since two of their five were traded for or signed as a free agent. 

I counted Festa, though he's a long way from a finished product. I counted Mathews, Festa and Ober as the three. It might be too soon to count Festa and Mathews, but I was giving the benefit of the doubt.

The track record says Falvey is mediocre at developing pitching. That's an improvement from Terry Ryan (who was one of the worst in the league) but it's nothing to get excited about. It isn't an organizational strength.

They are still one of the worst orgs at producing international free-agent pitching. Their best international free-agent pitching prospect is Bohorquez and he doesn't make this list at all. The international scouts haven't produced anything since Brusdar Graterol in 2014 and that was when Terry Ryan was still in charge.

[Fatbat]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I counted Festa, though he's a long way from a finished product. I counted Mathews, Festa and Ober as the three. It might be too soon to count Festa and Mathews, but I was giving the benefit of the doubt.

The track record says Falvey is mediocre at developing pitching. That's an improvement from Terry Ryan (who was one of the worst in the league) but it's nothing to get excited about. It isn't an organizational strength.

They are still one of the worst orgs at producing international free-agent pitching. Their best international free-agent pitching prospect is Bohorquez and he doesn't make this list at all. The international scouts haven't produced anything since Brusdar Graterol in 2014 and that was when Terry Ryan was still in charge.

So by your logic, Cade Povich has to be counted. The O’s got him at 90% mlb ready. SWR spent more time in our org than Povich did so he has to count. 

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

So by your logic, Cade Povich has to be counted. The O’s got him at 90% mlb ready. SWR spent more time in our org than Povich did so he has to count. 

They drafted Povich and then traded him after 1 year in the organization. If he was "90% MLB ready" then you need to give 80% of the credit to the University of Nebraska.

Go ahead and count him. Like Festa and Mathews he's been below replacement value so far. Other organizations are just as successful at producing back-end starters.

Go look at the top 30 prospects for other teams.

Team and # of pitching prospects 40FV or greater per Fangraphs

TBR 21, COL 20, LAD 17, BOS 17, TEX 17, ATL 15, TOR 15, CIN 15, NYY 14, PIT 14, KCR 13, MIL 12, MIA 12, SDP 11, OAK 11, DET 11, ARI 11, PHI 10, WSN 10, CLE 10, CHW 10, SEA 10, MIN 10, SFG 10, LAA 10 BAL 9, NYM 9, STL 9, HOU 8

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They drafted Povich and then traded him after 1 year in the organization. If he was "90% MLB ready" then you need to give 80% of the credit to the University of Nebraska.

Go ahead and count him. Like Festa and Mathews he's been below replacement value so far. Other organizations are just as successful at producing back-end starters.

Go look at the top 30 prospects for other teams.

Team and # of pitching prospects 40FV or greater per Fangraphs

TBR 21, COL 20, LAD 17, BOS 17, TEX 17, ATL 15, TOR 15, CIN 15, NYY 14, PIT 14, KCR 13, MIL 12, MIA 12, SDP 11, OAK 11, DET 11, ARI 11, PHI 10, WSN 10, CLE 10, CHW 10, SEA 10, MIN 10, SFG 10, LAA 10 BAL 9, NYM 9, STL 9, HOU 8

The just graduated SWR and Festa and Matthews.....I mean, MN is within 3 of being above average....is it really "awful"? Really? We're going to tout Colorado as great at drafting and developing pitchers? 

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The just graduated SWR and Festa and Matthews.....I mean, MN is within 3 of being above average....is it really "awful"? Really? We're going to tout Colorado as great at drafting and developing pitchers? 

7 pitchers in the top 30 is awful but I also think this list has missed a couple pitchers that should have been listed in the top 30. They are a lot closer to the bottom of the list than the top.

There is no evidence the Twins organization is better at developing pitchers than any other organization in MLB.

[Fatbat]

@DJL44 considering that for 2 decades, we were absolutely horrible at pitching drafting and development. We are significantly better at it since 2017.  I will give some credit to college programs for sure. LSU obviously had alot to do with making skenes mlb ready. 

[tony&rodney]

Prospect - the possibility that something good might happen in the future:

I'm not sure why folks get argumentative about "prospect" lists. You can make your own and you may have as much luck as any other guess. 

There is an entire industry that revolves around ratings, articles, and prognostications of prospects and a fair amount of analysis too. Some of this is from people who spend significant amounts of time poring over data without ever actually watching the individuals perform. Others do get out and watch numerous players and also use volumes of data. The entire baseball industry has a lower probability for the signed prospects appearing at the MLB level than in football, basketball, or hockey drafts. They are not really good comparisons. People make money telling us in various forms who we should pay attention to or not and then along comes a Payton Eeles or Carson McCusker to muck it up. 

The whole prospect thing, as far as us readers, is entertainment and should be enjoyed without getting tore up about why Willie Banks is not in the Hall of Fame. Let the writers and owners of the site get frothed over this guy or that guy because they have a stake in the game -  ads, memberships, clicks, and comments. Chill on final judgments of something that has not yet happened. Sorry to be such a s%&thead, but this is not worth people insulting each other.

Marco Ray should be a decent relief pitcher from what I can tell from watching him on numerous occasions. He could make himself a nice career as a baseball player. I have him as #9 on my list of Twins prospects.