What Was the Point of Signing Carlos Correa?

[lunemann]

22 hours ago, BH67 said:

It's called Occam's Razor, Nick. My guess is that the pending Diamond Sports implosion wasn't known at the time of Correa's signing.

The most obvious answer is that generations #2 and #3 of this ownership group is just not that good at business in general. They have sold off multiple businesses at a loss over the past few years and muck up nearly every Twins opportunity that comes in front of them. Grandpa Carl's fortune was vast enough that the kids and grandkids had a lot of margin for error but that seems to be at an end and they need to cash out of the baseball team.

[lake_guy]

I think it's ineptitude + deteriorating economics in the Pohlad's financial portfolio.

Ineptitude:

• Not recognizing and/or not reacting to the MLB revenue crisis.  And it's an epic crisis MLB is facing, those RSN level of revenues are gone for 13 of 30 clubs, 43%.  It could be the White Sox are up for sale because it's being used as a lever to get a new stadium but it might not be the entire reason.  
• I believe it's more in the not reacting category.  MLB insiders, and for that matter media consultants and the industry execs, knew this was coming.  

Deteriorating Economics:

• The historic increase in interest rates left many businesses on shaky ground and was a direct reason for several bank failures.  COVID hollowed out the commercial real estate sector which the Pohlads appear to be heavily invested in.  Google this to get more info, any yes I know AI can hallucinate but look at the supporting data from other sources.   https://www.google.com/search?q=how+much+of+the+pohlads+investment+portfolio+is+in+commercial+real+estate&oq=how+much+of+the+pohlads+investment+portfolio+is+in+commercial+real+estate
• The problem in the commercial real estate space is that prior to the massive interest rate hike by the Fed the practice was to simply keep rolling over cheap debt so you have liquidity, but now it's expensive so investors are selling for pennies on the dollar OR they are raising funds in their other investments to fill the massive hole until conditions improve.

The Pohlad's have a liquidity problem, the Twins are reportedly ~30% of their portfolio, and the Twins and MLB revenues are flat lining.  They gotta sell and it needs to be sooner rather than later.

 

[mrcharlie]

On 10/18/2024 at 8:01 AM, BH67 said:

Question:

And yet, one year after signing Correa, the Twins stripped down their payroll around him, sabotaging a playoff-caliber squad that unraveled in the shortstop's absence. Correa was deprived of a chance to deliver more postseason heroics, and as we look ahead to a reshaped competitive landscape in the Central next year, ownership seems inclined to follow the same inexplicable path.

Answer:

This is where I just sort of get lost in trying to grasp the logic and mindset behind what's happening. Look, if finances and the bottom line are the guiding factors for the Pohlads, I understand it. I don't agree with it, but I understand.

It's called Occam's Razor, Nick. My guess is that the pending Diamond Sports implosion wasn't known at the time of Correa's signing.

The insistence of many knowledgeable voices here of something more nefarious at work has made reading Twins Daily insights unpleasant for me. But that's the cost of admission.

Occam's Razor?  No idea what you are referring to.  I suggest it is more like...                 St. Peter's Hatchet Job                   

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

and this may be a realization that he is thinking the kid may not be ready yet. 

The "kid" is in his 40s.  I think he's older than Falvey, who also is past the whiz-kid threshold anymore.  If Joe Pohlad is wet behind the ears it's not due to youth, he's just slow to dry off.

[BH67]

37 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

Occam's Razor?  No idea what you are referring to.  I suggest it is more like...                 St. Peter's Hatchet Job                   

It's a term used to explain that the simplest explanation for something is likely the correct one.

[TheLeviathan]

On 10/18/2024 at 8:16 AM, BH67 said:

Short of the investment banking sector, I doubt anyone anticipated that with sufficient foresight,

I'm just some schmo and I've been yelling about it for almost a decade.

This really wasn't hard to see coming.

[TheLeviathan]

23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think you're overselling how much risk the Pohlad's felt there was.

Like the foreclosure crisis where issuing banks had taken on high risk mortgages and packaged them as low risk to purchasing banks and investors. This wasn't a "Twins" or "Pohlad's" issue since a dozen MLB teams were dragged into the situation. I think every single team who didn't cut ties mid-2023 after non-payment wound up re-upping with Bally Sports given the opportunity, and zero of them would have been okay with most of their fans being unable to watch the games, period. As a collective, MLB ownership clearly didn't see the risk.

This is a reflection on the antiquated thinking at the league on media.  This slow moving trainwreck has given MLB many opportunities to change course.  Here are but a few canaries in the coal mine:

1. Massive declines in satellite viewers

2. Massive increases in cord cutting (especially in demos that advertisers prefer)

3. Increased streaming options

4. The NHL's previous broadcasting mistake and subsequent change later.

5. The NBA's bidding war for broadcasting as a good way to do things.  Ditto NFL.

6. Cable and streaming ala carte options becoming common.

7. Sinclair only had sports because FOX saw the writing on the wall and got out in 2019.

I feel like that last one says it all.  This wasn't a new issue, it was completely foreseeable.  Smart people at Fox Sports broke the emergency glass before their profits dried up and found a sucker.  The Twins, much like MLB, kept preferring the short term gravy train over preparing for the looming disaster on the horizon.

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm just some schmo and I've been yelling about it for almost a decade.

This really wasn't hard to see coming.

Too bad the Pohlad's don't know anyone in the investment banking sector..........

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I feel like that last one says it all.  This wasn't a new issue.  Was completely foreseeable.  The Twins, much like MLB, kept preferring the short term gravy train over preparing for the looming disaster on the horizon.

And the Pohlad's are the longest severing ownership group in the mid and small markets. They should have been the ones spearheading broadcasting and financial equity within the league decades ago. Instead they took a backseat and were followers during the collusion era, the steroid era and it's ensuing fallout, the contraction situation, the increasing revenue disparity and then the declining popularity in both their product and cable/satellite subscriptions which impacted the mid and small markets substantially more than the large markets.

With their tenure, they should have been THE leaders keeping the sport up to date and relevant.

I've been saying all along that we very easily could get even worse owners, but the Pohlad's are a passive, gravy-train group who did nothing to help the sport or this club.

[BH67]

34 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Too bad the Pohlad's don't know anyone in the investment banking sector..........

Too bad they don't pay attention to them, perhaps?

I think I have "knowledgeable schmo" bona fides on many subjects, too, but that doesn't get me much gravitas where decisions are made. 😏

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Too bad the Pohlad's don't know anyone in the investment banking sector..........

Honestly...they just needed someone under the age of 40.  This issue has been glaringly obvious to anyone who doesn't use velcro on their remote control or spent half their lives with rotary phones.

[David Maro]

This whole mess is on Falvey,he thinks he is the smartest guy in the room.He signed Donaldson who didn't fit the team.Gives Buxton a so called home team friendly deal knowing he is a part time player.Then trades assets for broken down pitchers like Mahle and Paddock.And after Correa opts out and fails two physicals decides he knows more than them and resigns him for 6yrs at 200 million.Now a team with limited payroll is stuck with another part time player.This organization is going to have a tuff time competing in a much improved division.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

When Nick is confused with the direction/strategy of the Twins you know things make no sense with

what we see? The quicker the Pohlads sell the quicker we will at least have a vision?

[Trov]

The point was they expected CC to hold down SS for years to come, and did not trust Lewis would cut it there.  They had no real other plan at SS either.  They knew they had to pay for him.  They then hoped the young guys would step, which is needed for most teams that are not the super spending teams. Then they still need guys you are not expecting to step up to do it. 

Last year, they did.  This year all the young guys fell pretty flat, along with the old guys by end of the season. 

[laloesch]

On 10/19/2024 at 8:30 AM, saviking said:

If they hadn't signed Correa they would have an extra 36 million to spend. 

I thought the Correa splurge was ill adviced.  I was mostly quiet about the matter here when it happened, but it's really come back to pinch the payroll along with the Buxton extension given what has happened in the last year or so.