Breaking Down 2024 Twins Rookies, Part 2: David Festa and Zebby Matthews

[Matthew Lenz]

The two midseason additions to the starting rotation are twin points of light in the dreary night of the looming offseason for Minnesota. What can we take away from each of their debut seasons?

Image courtesy of © Eric Canha-Imagn Images

David Festa
Festa accelerated through the organization, making his MLB debut on Jun. 27 after holding a 4.03 ERA / 4.00 FIP over 60 ⅓ innings in St. Paul, with an impressive 24.7% K-BB rate. Once he made it to Minneapolis, he never looked back, throwing another 64 ⅓ innings with a 4.90 ERA / 3.76 FIP, striking out fewer hitters but also walking fewer than he did with the Saints (19.5% K-BB).

The Good
Festa looks to fit well within the mold of this regime. He's only intermittently overpowering, but can be deceptive with elite extension and two strong secondaries. In a small sample, roughly a third of a season, Festa’s slider accrued a run value of 5, held hitters to a .249 wOBA, and yielded a whiff percentage near 30%. He locates his changeup really well, burying it low and inside to righties or outside to lefties, and it therefore generated a near-40% whiff rate and a 30.2% hard-hit rate. In addition to a FIP more than a run better than his ERA, his SIERA of 3.58 suggests better days ahead for the 24-year-old righty.

The Bad
While he mostly located his change really well, when he missed, it usually ended up in extra bases. Four of the nine home runs he gave up came on the changeup, which resulted in a -3 run value for the offering. Similarly, he struggled to locate his fastball, which had a -4 run value and a .411 opponent wOBA. He often left it up in but not above the zone. As of right now, “ignore the slider and mash the fastball” is going to be the headline of his scouting report, until he can locate his heater more consistently and with a finer touch.

The Outlook
Festa is undoubtedly a top-four arm in the Twins rotation heading into the 2025 season, and given his current arsenal and ability, that might be the most realistic long-term outlook for him. That said, if he’s able to improve the velocity and/or command of his fastball, he might go from Joe Ryan Lite to Ryan 2.0, and establish himself as a top arm in the rotation and across Major League Baseball.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

Zebby Matthews
Matthews, the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year, was another quick riser, starting the year in high-A and ending it with the Twins. His first taste of the big leagues was a sour one, though, as he only accrued 37 ⅔ innings and wore an ugly 6.69 ERA / 5.71 FIP. Fifteen of his 28 earned runs came in five innings across two starts. Remove those from the game log, and the ERA drops to 3.75 with a great strikeout rate and elite walk rate. There's still cause for optimism here.

The Good
I’d be remiss not to start with his impressive control. Over 134 ⅔ innings in 2024 across all levels, he allowed just 18 walks. While we can’t totally ignore the two treacherous starts, those two are really skewing most of his results, as they represent roughly an eighth of all his innings in the majors. He consistently showed flashes of a top-of-the-rotation arm, with pitch models especially liking his slider and curveball and his ability to locate each of those pitches and his fastball.

The Bad
Although he only threw his changeup about 8% of the time, it is far and away the worst pitch in his arsenal, grading out below average in Stuff+ and Location+. He’s been susceptible to the long ball in his short pro career, and his fastball, in particular, was responsible for five of the 11 home runs he gave up with the Twins.

The Outlook
Matthews and Festa are very similar in my eyes, as they’ll both start the year in the 2025 rotation and likely are mid-rotation pieces in the long run. Given Matthews's ability to limit walks and the fact that he has multiple plus offspeed offerings, I would bet he ends up being the slightly better arm of the two. ZIPS doesn’t not have a three-year projection for Matthews.

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Do you believe more in Festa or Matthews? Which would you give a more secure place in next year's rotation to? Sound off in the comments.

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[DJL44]

I heard someone comment that every Matthews pitch breaks in the same direction, it's just how much they break. That could be a problem that can only be fixed by adding a pitch like a sinker or splitter to go with the slider. A split-change could help him a lot.

 

[jmlease1]

My initial thought is that Festa's raw stuff is better but his control is shakier. Matthews is better at throwing strikes, but less able to get people to chase. I'm not sure which one I like better at this point; they both have things to work on, but they also are showing real potential.

If you forced me to pick, I might go Festa; just feels like his arsenal might hold up better over all. 

Hopefully the Twins are able to put together a good off-season plan for both of them, because we need them to be successful.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

With the front three spots in the rotation locked in, I think Festa starts the year as the #4/5 starter with SWR, and Matthews needs some time in AAA to really get his feet back on the ground.  Can you imagine the whirlwind he felt over his rise during the season?  Wow!  His head is probably still spinning.  In 2025, he will be an awesome resource to have available at AAA in case of injury or ineffectiveness at the MLB level.  In 2026, he will force his way into a permanent spot in the rotation.  

My one fear is that the Twins think of Festa and Matthews as fully developed and ready for full time status at the MLB level, and decide to trade one of the top three in the rotation.  This would leave us “functional” to start the season but placing a lot of faith in very inexperienced arms and with no room for error in the rotation.  

[Mike Sixel]

I think Festa can be quite good. Matthews? I think his ceiling is lower, but he will eventually be no worse than an innings eater, but could be more . And I think he will be.

The future is bright pitching wise. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I heard someone comment that every Matthews pitch breaks in the same direction, it's just how much they break. That could be a problem that can only be fixed by adding a pitch like a sinker or splitter to go with the slider. A split-change could help him a lot.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/zebby-matthews-805673?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

The top right movement profile chart shows that not to be the case. The slider and cutter break similar. 

[bean5302]

Right now the Twins 2025 rotation is:
Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Woods-Richardson
Depth
Festa, Matthews, Morris

I expect it will change before opening day via injuries or roster changes. Festa's fastball/slider combo gives him a nice high floor of at least high end reliever, but the lack of a true plus pitch and a 3 pitch combo (assuming the changeup can even play long term) limits his ceiling a lot. He's probably going to be capped at #4 level.

Matthews has a lot of pitches, but they're all pretty league average. Without any plus movement stuff, he's going to need to really excel at pitch placement, which he was average at this season as well. His floor is probably lower than Festa's right now down to middle relief at worst, and it's tough to see Matthews getting out of the back of the rotation without significant further development.

[HerbieFan]

Personally, I'd like to see the club move forward with Paddack in the bullpen.  Maybe that would help him stay healthy.  I'd sooner have 60 appearances and 75 innings of max stuff out of the bullpen from him.  They'll have plenty of middling starting options next year between SWR, Festa, Matthews and possibly a low-cost/back of the rotation type FA....but one that's actually healthy,

The late collapse and Joe Pohlad tightening the purse strings are disappointing.  But the future of this team can still be good.  Key to the rotation will be those three young starters taking another step.

[TwinsDr2021]

"Matthews and Festa are very similar in my eyes, as they’ll both start the year in the 2025 rotation"

Interesting take, who is leaving the rotation? or do you think they will go with a six man rotation?

Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR?

If the go with them two, probably means they traded somebody and their depth is all unproven, to me that makes next year another 21 or 22, not really competing for a division title.

 

I agree @bean5302 the 2025 rotation as of now is Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Woods-Richardson

I can't believe the Twins will put $7.5 million dollar Paddack in the pen. When is the last time the Twins spent more than 5 million on a pen arm? (Reed in 2018?)

[FlyingFinn]

I'm a big fan of both Festa and Matthews. They pitched for the Twins in the 2nd half of the year, when our defense was one of the worst in baseball (mostly without Buxton and Correa). I think that had some effect on their numbers. Both will be counted on a lot for the Twins in 2025. 

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

"Matthews and Festa are very similar in my eyes, as they’ll both start the year in the 2025 rotation"

Interesting take, who is leaving the rotation? or do you think they will go with a six man rotation?

Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR?

If the go with them two, probably means they traded somebody and their depth is all unproven, to me that makes next year another 21 or 22, not really competing for a division title.

 

I agree @bean5302 the 2025 rotation as of now is Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Woods-Richardson

I can't believe the Twins will put $7.5 million dollar Paddack in the pen. When is the last time the Twins spent more than 5 million on a pen arm? (Reed in 2018?)

Yeah, I do not see Paddack in the bullpen as an option for Minnesota. Even Jax and Duran will combine for around $6-7MM on their own, and they're pushing the limits of what Falvey will accept. Anything over $5.0MM in the bullpen for the Twins gets into the "nope" category. Remember when they pushed Taylor Rogers off the books because he hit $6MM?

Here are the top bullpen salaries by year under Falvey.
2017 - Glen Perkins $6.5MM
2018 - Addison Reed $8.3MM
2019 - Sam Dyson $5MM
2020 - Sergio Romo $4.8MM
2021 - Alex Colome $5.0MM
2022 - Micheal Fulmer $5.0MM
2023 - Emilio Pagan $3.5MM

 

[bean5302]

I really don't understand why people think Falvey has done something great in terms of draft/development for the Twins. The best position player he's ever signed out of the draft barely played for the team before being tossed in as a candy bar in the Taylor Rogers trade.

Falvey's drafts highest fWAR (everybody at 1.0 or higher fWAR)

2017 Ober 7.7 fWAR 1.5 per expected season
2017 Rooker 6.7 fWAR 1.3 per expected season
2018 Jeffers 6.4 fWAR 1.5 per expected season
2017 Lewis 4.0 fWAR 1.0 per expected season
2019 Wallner 3.8 fWAR 1.9 per expected season
2019 Steer 3.1 fWAR 1.0 per expected season
2019 Julien 2.8 fWAR 0.9 per expected season
2018 Larnach 2.6 fWAR 0.7 per expected season
2018 Sands 1.3 fWAR 0.3 per expected season
2021 Festa 1.1 fWAR 1.1 per expected season
2017 Faucher 1.1 fWAR (traded to Tampa with Cruz for Ryan) 0.2 per expected season

Not a great record across 8 years of drafting considering good prospects generally make the majors in 3 years out of college and 4 years out of high school. That means we would expect good prospects from 2017 to have 4-5 years of MLB experience. A solid starter would have accumulated 8-10 WAR already. 

Not one single drafted and signed player from Falvey's regime is averaging 2.0 fWAR per season based on 3yrs of development for college and 4yrs of development for high school players. Only Rooker has earned an All Star nod, and it wasn't with the Twins.

Complain about injuries all you like. In the world of "business," if the Pohlads are actually running one, results are supposed to be what matters.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I really don't understand why people think Falvey has done something great in terms of draft/development for the Twins. The best position player he's ever signed out of the draft barely played for the team before being tossed in as a candy bar in the Taylor Rogers trade.

Falvey's drafts highest fWAR (everybody at 1.0 or higher fWAR)

2017 Ober 7.7 fWAR 1.5 per expected season
2017 Rooker 6.7 fWAR 1.3 per expected season
2018 Jeffers 6.4 fWAR 1.5 per expected season
2017 Lewis 4.0 fWAR 1.0 per expected season
2019 Wallner 3.8 fWAR 1.9 per expected season
2019 Steer 3.1 fWAR 1.0 per expected season
2019 Julien 2.8 fWAR 0.9 per expected season
2018 Larnach 2.6 fWAR 0.7 per expected season
2018 Sands 1.3 fWAR 0.3 per expected season
2021 Festa 1.1 fWAR 1.1 per expected season
2017 Faucher 1.1 fWAR (traded to Tampa with Cruz for Ryan) 0.2 per expected season

Not a great record across 8 years of drafting considering good prospects generally make the majors in 3 years out of college and 4 years out of high school. That means we would expect good prospects from 2017 to have 4-5 years of MLB experience. A solid starter would have accumulated 8-10 WAR already. 

Not one single drafted and signed player from Falvey's regime is averaging 2.0 fWAR per season based on 3yrs of development for college and 4yrs of development for high school players. Only Rooker has earned an All Star nod, and it wasn't with the Twins.

Complain about injuries all you like. In the world of "business," if the Pohlads are actually running one, results are supposed to be what matters.

I believe this is called an inconvenient truth. Similar to the “pitching pipeline”. I think people like the idea of a hip young analytics guy taking over for the crusty old out of date scout. At the end of the day it’s about making the correct decision as often as possible whether you are using the latest in analytics or a scouts eye or flipping a coin. Falvey has a thoroughly mediocre track record in this regard. And I completely disagree with the notion that he was so hamstrung by Ryan that he couldn’t have made some progress early on. We are going on year 9 and things look remarkably similar year over year when it comes to his performance. Some good some bad and a whole lot of mediocre. 

[thelanges5]

López, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Festa to start 2025 in the rotation. Would be great if they could sign/trade for someone and have Festa start at AAA but those “business decisions” probably won’t allow for that. 

Zebby at AAA

Paddack in the pen or traded

I like the direction our starting pitching is heading. 

[beckmt]

I hope you have not forgotten Raya and Morris.  I believe Raya has the best stuff, so in my opinion Matthews will start in st Paul, and he may not be the first man up.  If is was not for the payroll, I would try and cash Matthews and another prospect in to extract a better starting pitcher.  Don't know what the winter will bring, it should be interesting, because I can see either Raya or Morris starting here in front of Matthews.

[bean5302]

 

7 hours ago, Linus said:

I believe this is called an inconvenient truth. Similar to the “pitching pipeline”. I think people like the idea of a hip young analytics guy taking over for the crusty old out of date scout. At the end of the day it’s about making the correct decision as often as possible whether you are using the latest in analytics or a scouts eye or flipping a coin. Falvey has a thoroughly mediocre track record in this regard. And I completely disagree with the notion that he was so hamstrung by Ryan that he couldn’t have made some progress early on. We are going on year 9 and things look remarkably similar year over year when it comes to his performance. Some good some bad and a whole lot of mediocre. 

The changes Falvey made to the analytics and scouting departments were absolutely necessary to be competitive. No doubt about that. He just hasn't made particularly good use of the tools. I actually meant to post the fWAR in a different topic, but was super busy, LOL. Oh well.

[h2oface]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, I do not see Paddack in the bullpen as an option for Minnesota. Even Jax and Duran will combine for around $6-7MM on their own, and they're pushing the limits of what Falvey will accept. Anything over $5.0MM in the bullpen for the Twins gets into the "nope" category. Remember when they pushed Taylor Rogers off the books because he hit $6MM?

Here are the top bullpen salaries by year under Falvey.
2017 - Glen Perkins $6.5MM
2018 - Addison Reed $8.3MM
2019 - Sam Dyson $5MM
2020 - Sergio Romo $4.8MM
2021 - Alex Colome $5.0MM
2022 - Micheal Fulmer $5.0MM
2023 - Emilio Pagan $3.5MM

 

Great summary. 6-7 wasted money. at least 5-7, as some were enamored by Romo. 7-7 if you consider how horrible Perkins was at the end of his last season. 
 

Twins fans get excited about some pretty pedestrian results. They really strain to elevate some players sometimes with hope that they can be better. 

[LambchoP]

Even though Festa needs to work on his command and be more efficient to go deeper than 4 or 5 innings, I'm guessing he'll be our number 5 starter. Mathews will be a solid pitcher for us when he's ready, but he's not there yet. He was totally rushed this year due to injuries. The guy started in A ball! He only had a couple AAA starts and they didn't go well. He should start in St Paul and work on his changeup and anything else the coaches think. Hopefully he'll pitch his way to the majors at some point, hopefully not until he's ready.

[JD-TWINS]

On 10/4/2024 at 11:55 AM, jmlease1 said:

My initial thought is that Festa's raw stuff is better but his control is shakier. Matthews is better at throwing strikes, but less able to get people to chase. I'm not sure which one I like better at this point; they both have things to work on, but they also are showing real potential.

If you forced me to pick, I might go Festa; just feels like his arsenal might hold up better over all. 

Hopefully the Twins are able to put together a good off-season plan for both of them, because we need them to be successful.

Festa is more ready - Matthews throws strikes at a high rate ….. that did diminish somewhat at MLB level…… he doesn’t have enough command within the zone though!

 

18 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

López, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Festa to start 2025 in the rotation. Would be great if they could sign/trade for someone and have Festa start at AAA but those “business decisions” probably won’t allow for that. 

Zebby at AAA

Paddack in the pen or traded

I like the direction our starting pitching is heading. 

I agree, SWR is ahead of Matthews at this point and the rotation you show should work!

Matthews - Lewis - Morris - Raya as AAA depth.

Blewett - Headrick - Funderburk - Lefty acquisition or Moran?…………..Henriquez - Alcala - Stewart - Varland - Sands - Topa - Paddack - Jax - Duran ……,our Bullpen could be a real weapon!