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David Festa
Festa accelerated through the organization, making his MLB debut on Jun. 27 after holding a 4.03 ERA / 4.00 FIP over 60 ⅓ innings in St. Paul, with an impressive 24.7% K-BB rate. Once he made it to Minneapolis, he never looked back, throwing another 64 ⅓ innings with a 4.90 ERA / 3.76 FIP, striking out fewer hitters but also walking fewer than he did with the Saints (19.5% K-BB).
The Good
Festa looks to fit well within the mold of this regime. He's only intermittently overpowering, but can be deceptive with elite extension and two strong secondaries. In a small sample, roughly a third of a season, Festa’s slider accrued a run value of 5, held hitters to a .249 wOBA, and yielded a whiff percentage near 30%. He locates his changeup really well, burying it low and inside to righties or outside to lefties, and it therefore generated a near-40% whiff rate and a 30.2% hard-hit rate. In addition to a FIP more than a run better than his ERA, his SIERA of 3.58 suggests better days ahead for the 24-year-old righty.
The Bad
While he mostly located his change really well, when he missed, it usually ended up in extra bases. Four of the nine home runs he gave up came on the changeup, which resulted in a -3 run value for the offering. Similarly, he struggled to locate his fastball, which had a -4 run value and a .411 opponent wOBA. He often left it up in but not above the zone. As of right now, “ignore the slider and mash the fastball” is going to be the headline of his scouting report, until he can locate his heater more consistently and with a finer touch.
The Outlook
Festa is undoubtedly a top-four arm in the Twins rotation heading into the 2025 season, and given his current arsenal and ability, that might be the most realistic long-term outlook for him. That said, if he’s able to improve the velocity and/or command of his fastball, he might go from Joe Ryan Lite to Ryan 2.0, and establish himself as a top arm in the rotation and across Major League Baseball.
Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:
Zebby Matthews
Matthews, the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year, was another quick riser, starting the year in high-A and ending it with the Twins. His first taste of the big leagues was a sour one, though, as he only accrued 37 ⅔ innings and wore an ugly 6.69 ERA / 5.71 FIP. Fifteen of his 28 earned runs came in five innings across two starts. Remove those from the game log, and the ERA drops to 3.75 with a great strikeout rate and elite walk rate. There's still cause for optimism here.
The Good
I’d be remiss not to start with his impressive control. Over 134 ⅔ innings in 2024 across all levels, he allowed just 18 walks. While we can’t totally ignore the two treacherous starts, those two are really skewing most of his results, as they represent roughly an eighth of all his innings in the majors. He consistently showed flashes of a top-of-the-rotation arm, with pitch models especially liking his slider and curveball and his ability to locate each of those pitches and his fastball.
The Bad
Although he only threw his changeup about 8% of the time, it is far and away the worst pitch in his arsenal, grading out below average in Stuff+ and Location+. He’s been susceptible to the long ball in his short pro career, and his fastball, in particular, was responsible for five of the 11 home runs he gave up with the Twins.
The Outlook
Matthews and Festa are very similar in my eyes, as they’ll both start the year in the 2025 rotation and likely are mid-rotation pieces in the long run. Given Matthews's ability to limit walks and the fact that he has multiple plus offspeed offerings, I would bet he ends up being the slightly better arm of the two. ZIPS doesn’t not have a three-year projection for Matthews.
Do you believe more in Festa or Matthews? Which would you give a more secure place in next year's rotation to? Sound off in the comments.
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