Should the Twins Bring Back Carlos Santana in 2025?

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

What's the Dollar Tree version of this?

They already have that guy - Willi Castro.

Jurickson Profar also fits the profile.

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 9/18/2024 at 7:30 AM, stringer bell said:

I like Lee or Lewis at second base and if Julien can find his hitting mojo, he could figure in at first base. Miranda has to be a consideration, especially with his good splits against right handed pitching. It also will be AK's last chance to establish himself.

Santana is the epitome of a low ceiling, high floor guy with exceptional durability and he's a switch hitter, although his splits against right handers don't merit a starting role. The defense has been very good, but he''ll be 39 next April. The Twins should do better than a 39-year old Carlos Santana. 

Agreed. I think this is a long-term short-term issue. For 2025, having Santana back makes defensive sense and may make offenses sense for one more year although it's pretty hard to say. His hitting is going to fall off the table soon, we just don't know when. For 2026, there is little to no likelihood that Santana will be a realistic option on any sort of contending team at age 40. So to me Santana might help us next year but won't after that. 

I just don't think it makes sense to give him another year because that limits playing time for others who we have to go with in the longer term. I think the better longer-term play is to play Miranda and Julien at 1B next year, with Lewis the primary 3B backed up by Castro/Lee, Correa at SS, and Castro/Lee playing 2B. We will need another IF so Kirilloff, Helman or a healthy Keaschall may make sense. Any money for FAs, if there will be any given the raises due Lopez, etc., has to go to pitching.  

6 IFs in 2025 are Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Castro, Lee, and Helman/Keaschall/Kirilloff/journeyman vet. 

5 OFs are Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, plus 2 of Martin, Keirsey, Emma, and Kirilloff. 

2Cs are Jeffers and Vasquez. 

 

[jorgenswest]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:09 AM, Matt Braun said:

José Miranda is the most likely heir to take over at the cold corner. His bat has returned to “oh yeah, this guy can hit” form, with a 120 wRC+ over 117 games, and he’s still in pre-arbitration. Given his putrid defensive metrics at third,

I don’t know what to make of his metrics. By eye he looks to play a below average but passable 3B. 

His OAA is -8 in 605 innings. That doesn’t look good but his DRS is +1 and UZR/150 is -5. There are several other 3Bs in the -3 to -12 range and the others have a matching negative DRS and some have double digit negative UZRs. If all of the metrics were well into the negatives I would be convinced putrid is appropriate. Royce Lewis has conflicting measures also his UZR/150 is -36 and DRS is -3 while is OAA is 0. Putrid? I would say both have been passable to mediocre with different areas they need to improve. Both are young enough to get better at 3B.
 

 

[jmlease1]

Santana has done a fine job this season after a horrific start. But I think I'd rather roll with the young guys next season than gamble that he's going to beat Father Time and be able to repeat this performance again. for all that we've loved his defense, it wouldn't take a lot for him to fall off significantly on that side, nor would it take that much to drop well below acceptable on the offensive side of the equation either. And one thing we know is this franchise will not let a veteran go early, even if they're a disaster. sometimes that works out, and sometimes you have a black hole for an entire season.

Miranda's splits against LHP this are a little out of whack this year, but it's still a fairly small sample size. I suspect he'll be fine. No, he's not great defensively, but he can improve. And he hits. Julien can get some time there, heck have Larnach pick up the glove and work on a little 1B in the offseason. Jeffers can fill in there too.

I think roster spaces are going to be at a premium next season, and I'd rather ride with the younger guys. We need them to play well anyways, because I don't expect any investment in the team from ownership, who almost certainly are going to botch up the tv deal and streaming rights and cry poverty.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Castro has shown he is not an everyday player.  He needs to play 3 or 4 days a week.  If a player goes down, they need to bring up a replacement that plays that position, not just throw a body in the position because they can stand there.  Castro's best position is probably LF, he can cover other positions on a short term basis but shouldn't be asked like he was this year to cover those other positions long term.  Having Castro lead the team in AB's is not a formula for winning.

Ok

But with the current Twins platoon model. How is that going to work?  

You say Castro is not an every day player. I won't argue that. I also agree that Castro leading the team in AB's is not what you want.

But making him a part time player and keeping him static in one position. How does that work with the platoon system that the Twins deploy. If he's not every day... he platoons because other players have to platoon and you need dance partners. 

If Castro was to platoon... his stats say that he would be best facing right handers.  

So now your platoon left handed players are: Larnach, Wallner and Castro. 

Who platoons with them? Two would have to be OF. Because you have Castro in LF, so Wallner in RF and Larnach at DH. We have Martin and insert cheap free agent here. Miranda platoons with Larnach? Which again doesn't make sense if you look at Miranda's current splits.  

If you bring Santana back. He doesn't platoon with Larnach, Wallner and Castro. He's now the everyday 1B along with Lee 2B, Lewis 3B, Correa SS and Buxton CF. 

On the just throwing a body at a position... I disagree with you 1 million percent. 

Take the lineup above.

What do you do when everyday Royce Lewis gets hurt at 3B and he's out for two months. Are you just going to call up Diego Castillo no matter what he is hitting to play 3B EVERYDAY because he's the St. Paul 3B?

You pretty much have to call up Diego Castrillo no matter what he's hitting based on your limitations... if you refuse to allow Castro to do extended work at another position besides LF and you only want a 3B playing 3B you have no other choice. 

Meanwhile... Emmanuel Rodriquez has an OPS of 1,000 could be the first call up slide into LF when Lewis gets hurt while Castro slides to 3B. 

 

Moving players around is necessary to put your best lineup on the field. All 30 teams move players around in order to put their best lineup on the field.   

[Fire Dan Gladden]

How disappointing is it that money has become a major point of discussion for a $5 million dollar player...

Even with payroll constraints, he should be a lock to come back in the $5-6 million range.  Even if they convert him to a platoon player, he would be worth it, with a cost low enough to dump if need be.

Miranda can not be trusted long term (yet).  Lewis is Buxton 2.0 with the injury risk.  Not going to even acknowledge Julien or Kiriloff playing 1B.  Unless they can find a true upgrade at 1B, resigning Santana at a similar salary is not a luxury, but a requirement.

[karcherd]

23 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

How disappointing is it that money has become a major point of discussion for a $5 million dollar player...

Even with payroll constraints, he should be a lock to come back in the $5-6 million range.  Even if they convert him to a platoon player, he would be worth it, with a cost low enough to dump if need be.

Miranda can not be trusted long term (yet).  Lewis is Buxton 2.0 with the injury risk.  Not going to even acknowledge Julien or Kiriloff playing 1B.  Unless they can find a true upgrade at 1B, resigning Santana at a similar salary is not a luxury, but a requirement.

When do you trust Miranda, we already lost this year of development for him, at what point do you give him a chance.  At some point we can't keep waiting for prospects until they are 27 or 28 to determine what role they can play for the team.  They need to either play them or trade them for other needs.  They have done this with Larnach and Wallner as well.  This is not a good use of your assets.  

[karcherd]

39 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Ok

But with the current Twins platoon model. How is that going to work?  

You say Castro is not an every day player. I won't argue that. I also agree that Castro leading the team in AB's is not what you want.

But making him a part time player and keeping him static in one position. How does that work with the platoon system that the Twins deploy. If he's not every day... he platoons because other players have to platoon and you need dance partners. 

If Castro was to platoon... his stats say that he would be best facing right handers.  

So now your platoon left handed players are: Larnach, Wallner and Castro. 

Who platoons with them? Two would have to be OF. Because you have Castro in LF, so Wallner in RF and Larnach at DH. We have Martin and insert cheap free agent here. Miranda platoons with Larnach? Which again doesn't make sense if you look at Miranda's current splits.  

If you bring Santana back. He doesn't platoon with Larnach, Wallner and Castro. He's now the everyday 1B along with Lee 2B, Lewis 3B, Correa SS and Buxton CF. 

On the just throwing a body at a position... I disagree with you 1 million percent. 

Take the lineup above.

What do you do when everyday Royce Lewis gets hurt at 3B and he's out for two months. Are you just going to call up Diego Castillo no matter what he is hitting to play 3B EVERYDAY because he's the St. Paul 3B?

You pretty much have to call up Diego Castrillo no matter what he's hitting based on your limitations... if you refuse to allow Castro to do extended work at another position besides LF and you only want a 3B playing 3B you have no other choice. 

Meanwhile... Emmanuel Rodriquez has an OPS of 1,000 could be the first call up slide into LF when Lewis gets hurt while Castro slides to 3B. 

 

Moving players around is necessary to put your best lineup on the field. All 30 teams move players around in order to put their best lineup on the field.   

This just shows the platoon model doesn't work, it leads to players like Castro and Santana leading your team in AB's.  It also leads to sloppy play in the field because players are not being put into positions that are their strengths.  I know are you saying this in the context of utilizing the platoon model.  I am hoping against hope that they will do an honest assessment of this model and realize it isn't working.  I don't have a problem moving Castro around but he gets stretched at some positions i.e. shortstop and by playing every day.  That is not putting your best team out there.  And not all the other 30 teams move players around like chess pieces like the Twins do.

[MinnesotaTwins26]

On 9/17/2024 at 2:58 PM, gman said:

Expect first base to be manned by Miranda, Kirilloff and possibly Lewis or Julian. I think Santana signs for whatever he can get from a team with greater chances of advancing in the playoffs.

Lewis? He seems like a desperation move at first base. I see Vazquez and maybe even Jeffers starting before him.

[Craig Arko]

Although the other reason Santana and Castro lead the team in PA is that they are the only two non-catchers who have spent no time on either the IL or in St. Paul.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, karcherd said:

This just shows the platoon model doesn't work, it leads to players like Castro and Santana leading your team in AB's.  It also leads to sloppy play in the field because players are not being put into positions that are their strengths.  I know are you saying this in the context of utilizing the platoon model.  I am hoping against hope that they will do an honest assessment of this model and realize it isn't working.  I don't have a problem moving Castro around but he gets stretched at some positions i.e. shortstop and by playing every day.  That is not putting your best team out there.  And not all the other 30 teams move players around like chess pieces like the Twins do.

I am anti-platoon model... To this degree. On that we agree. 

However... All 30 teams move players around like chess pieces. Any time an injury occurs it's Kings Knight to C3. 

 

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

I am anti-platoon model... To this degree. On that we agree. 

However... All 30 teams move players around like chess pieces. Any time an injury occurs it's Kings Knight to C3. 

 

My point on moving players around is it not just based on injuries, they do as a regular part of their lineup juggling and other teams don't do it to that degree.  I agree with you on when injuries occur.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, karcherd said:

My point on moving players around is it not just based on injuries, they do as a regular part of their lineup juggling and other teams don't do it to that degree.  I agree with you on when injuries occur.

After you name a starting 9.

There are only 4 extra players. 3 if you take out the catcher. 

What are your expectations for those 3 extra players. Can they move around? 

[karcherd]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

After you name a starting 9.

There are only 4 extra players. 3 if you take out the catcher. 

What are your expectations for those 3 extra players. Can they move around? 

Having a strong starting 8 mitigates the need to move players around.  That is where you only need a player like Castro to fill in at different spots as needed.  And this is my frustration, they seem to value position flexibility over having a strong starting 8.  Texas pinch hit once in the World Series last year, that should be the goal.  You have a bench to give players a day off here and there not three days a week.  I get platooning one or two guys like Leius and Pags at 3B in 91 but having a team of platoon players is not a winning recipe.

[Riverbrian]

21 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Having a strong starting 8 mitigates the need to move players around.  That is where you only need a player like Castro to fill in at different spots as needed.  And this is my frustration, they seem to value position flexibility over having a strong starting 8.  Texas pinch hit once in the World Series last year, that should be the goal.  You have a bench to give players a day off here and there not three days a week.  I get platooning one or two guys like Leius and Pags at 3B in 91 but having a team of platoon players is not a winning recipe.

Who is our strong starting 8? We thought Julien was part of that group. It wasn't. Lewis got hurt on his 2nd AB. Wallner got sent down. Kepler has been so-so. Castro is leading our team in AB's.

We get nailed by injuries every single year just like every team does. One Castro floating around isn't going to be able to keep a finger in the dyke. You need a strong 10 through 13 because they will be needed and if you have a strong 10 through 13... How do you know they are a strong 10 through 13? What do you do when player 13 is playing better than player number 9. How would you know that player 13 is playing better than number 9. 

Come playoffs... The teams will be pretty much locked in. Even the Twins were as locked in as they could be last year in the playoffs.  

Buxton was out. Lewis could only DH. So Polanco had to play 3B at the last minute because Lewis couldn't go. Yes they platooned but they had to platoon because you don't keep Julien away from lefties during the season just to turn them loose in the playoffs. Again... I don't like our severe platooning but the Twins were pretty locked in during the playoffs.   

Getting through 162 games is a whole different animal. Those 162 games should help you determine who you lock in come playoff time. Prepare you for as many possibilities come playoff time. 

 

[USAFChief]

59 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

 

However... All 30 teams move players around like chess pieces. Any time an injury occurs it's Kings Knight to C3. 

 

I don't think this is true.

Most teams are still looking for full-time players at set positions.

 

[karcherd]

15 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Who is our strong starting 8? We thought Julien was part of that group. It wasn't. Lewis got hurt on his 2nd AB. Wallner got sent down. Kepler has been so-so. Castro is leading our team in AB's.

We get nailed by injuries every single year just like every team does. One Castro floating around isn't going to be able to keep a finger in the dyke. You need a strong 10 through 13 because they will be needed and if you have a strong 10 through 13... How do you know they are a strong 10 through 13? What do you do when player 13 is playing better than player number 9. How would you know that player 13 is playing better than number 9. 

Come playoffs... The teams will be pretty much locked in. Even the Twins were as locked in as they could be last year in the playoffs.  

Buxton was out. Lewis could only DH. So Polanco had to play 3B at the last minute because Lewis couldn't go. Yes they platooned but they had to platoon because you don't keep Julien away from lefties during the season just to turn them loose in the playoffs. Again... I don't like our severe platooning but the Twins were pretty locked in during the playoffs.   

Getting through 162 games is a whole different animal. Those 162 games should help you determine who you lock in come playoff time. Prepare you for as many possibilities come playoff time. 

 

If the starting 8 is not in the organization then build for it.  But the Twins are not doing that.  They are purposefully drafting shortstops to move them around later.  They are not trying to build a starting 8, they want to move players around like chess pieces and this is where the logic fails in the playoffs.  They don't have a Wallner or Julien ready to play against LH pitching and you have to start lesser players.  That works during the season over 162 games not in the playoffs.  This year Wallner should not have been sent down when he was, he should have had a longer leash, Kiriloff should have been at 1B.  Yes you have to plan for 162 games but you don't have to move players as much as they do.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't think this is true.

Most teams are still looking for full-time players at set positions.

 

They all look for that.

As they listen to Louie Armstrong sing "What a Wonderful World". 

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, karcherd said:

If the starting 8 is not in the organization then build for it.  But the Twins are not doing that.  They are purposefully drafting shortstops to move them around later.  They are not trying to build a starting 8, they want to move players around like chess pieces and this is where the logic fails in the playoffs.  They don't have a Wallner or Julien ready to play against LH pitching and you have to start lesser players.  That works during the season over 162 games not in the playoffs.  This year Wallner should not have been sent down when he was, he should have had a longer leash, Kiriloff should have been at 1B.  Yes you have to plan for 162 games but you don't have to move players as much as they do.

The Twins and everybody else drafts SS's because they are the best player at Rice University and the coaching staff at Rice would like to have their best player play SS. 

They get to the major league level and then they get moved once they find that the guy they drafted out of Tulane is a better SS but this Rice is guy still pretty good.  

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins and everybody else drafts SS's because they are the best player at Rice University and the coaching staff at Rice would like to have their best player play SS. 

They get to the major league level and then they get moved once they find that the guy they drafted out of Tulane is a better SS but this Rice is guy still pretty good.  

The Twins have actually stated this is their philosophy.  You keep stating everyone does this or that, and if they are, great because some of those teams are having more success than the Twins are.  But you can't wait until they get to the majors to determine their position, you need to do it in the minor leagues at some point so they can learn and master the position.  Again this is why we keep seeing sloppy and poor decisions when they get up here.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't think this is true.

Most teams are still looking for full-time players at set positions.

If they're moving players it isn't quite as drastic. They move outfielders around the outfield, corner infielders between 1B and 3B and up the middle infielders between 2B, SS and 3B. Those positions require a lot of the same fundamentals. It is hard to be good at both SS and CF (for example) because there is only so much time in the day to practice each position and you're competing against players who only play SS or only play CF.

[USAFChief]

52 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

They all look for that.

As they listen to Louie Armstrong sing "What a Wonderful World". 

And yet they find, and play such players.

Jose Ramirez isn't "an infielder." He's a 3rd baseman. Bobby Witt Jr is a SS. Kyle Tucker plays RF. 

"Anybody can play anywhere" isn't a universal concept.

I question, for example, what this regime would have done with Gary Gaetti. Or Kory Koskie. 

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

And yet they find, and play such players.

Jose Ramirez isn't "an infielder." He's a 3rd baseman. Bobby Witt Jr is a SS. Kyle Tucker plays RF. 

"Anybody can play anywhere" isn't a universal concept.

I would be hesitant to move Jose Ramirez and Bobby Witt at this point myself. Even I... wouldn't suggest a completely willy nilly approach to getting your best players on the field. 

However. In 2022 when Bobby Witt washed up on the shores. He played 3B for 50 games and then moved to SS. Why? 

Jose Ramirez was much more interesting. He became the primary 3B in 2018. From 2013 to 2018 he played 3B, SS, 2B and LF. 119 starts at 2B, 100 starts at SS and 49 in LF. Why? Cleveland even made World Series in 2016 and the playoffs in 2017 and 2018 so the player movement didn't damage them too bad. Why did they move Ramirez around? 

Kyle Tucker... He's primarily RF but he still has some boogers in his nose. 65 Games started in LF and CF. Plus 13 Innings at 1B. 

Bobby Witt played 3B because that was the open door to the majors.  

Jose Ramirez moved around under Terry Francona because moving him allowed him to put his best team on the field. It seemed to work out ok. 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

4 hours ago, karcherd said:

When do you trust Miranda, we already lost this year of development for him, at what point do you give him a chance.  At some point we can't keep waiting for prospects until they are 27 or 28 to determine what role they can play for the team.  They need to either play them or trade them for other needs.  They have done this with Larnach and Wallner as well.  This is not a good use of your assets.  

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

Miranda was given the reigns once and failed miserable.  A few good months of play does not make him 100% reliable in my book.  There still needs to be some on-field insurance for him.

[karcherd]

5 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

Miranda was given the reigns once and failed miserable.  A few good months of play does not make him 100% reliable in my book.  There still needs to be some on-field insurance for him.

When did Miranda fail.  In 22, teams were inquiring about him and the Twins wouldn't move him.  Last year he had 142 AB's because he was injured.  He has been one of our better hitters this year despite not having a regular position.  His defense will improve with more rep's, where will he top out, no one knows.

[karcherd]

For all you Santana lovers, remember this game when he was 0 for 5 with RISP.  A flyball instead of a groundball at least brings home a run.  And he has had multiple games like this on offense.  He is a defensive replacement and play only against LH pitching player.

[exeoud]

Would have said yes before tonight, now I'm fully out. 1 game sample size, bla bla, 9 LOB in a game is unacceptable, especially for a veteran of his tenure. Career .205 BA/.685 OPS in the postseason. Get me guys that can perform in crunchtime.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, karcherd said:

When did Miranda fail.  In 22, teams were inquiring about him and the Twins wouldn't move him.  Last year he had 142 AB's because he was injured.  He has been one of our better hitters this year despite not having a regular position.  His defense will improve with more rep's, where will he top out, no one knows.

Last year, after being trusted enough to be the starter the Twins moved on from Geo,  Miranda had 40 games of a wonderful .211/.263/.303 before he was sent back down to the minors.  After 40 pedestrian games in AAA, he became injured.  The Twins had so much faith in him that he started this year in AAA.

Throw out the rose colored glasses. I am hopeful he will be a solid piece going forward, just not yet 100% convinced

[Vanimal46]

The free agency class for 1B is actually pretty promising this winter for whatever rate you want to pay. There’s the high end option like Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt, to mid-tier options like Christian Walker and Josh Bell, to low tier options like Santana and Ryan O’Hearn. No reason to rush into an agreement with Santana. 

[IndianaTwin]

13 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Similar to Gray and Maeda, one cannot expect another season like this one from Santana.  Kudos to him for his year, but at that age we cannot expect a repeat.

Remember that Kepler's 10MM will be coming off the books this year so that may help.

I suggest two options... 1-spread rumors about a hidden injury for Alonzo and low ball him on salary😉  2-go with one of the cheaper internal options.

Kepler’s $10 million is needed to cover most of Pablo’s $13.5 million raise.