David Festa Sure Looks Like a Major-League Starter

[Matt Braun]

He hasn't even reached the 50-inning threshold, but David Festa's performance so far should have fans jubilant. 

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Normally, I fancy myself as someone who stays out of the predictive riff-raff of sports. I mean, what, does the world really need another dude who thinks their opinions are gold? It’s madness. But there’s something so immediately special about David Festa that I must dedicate 600 words to talking about him. 

One of the things that set Festa apart from your typical house-of-straw rookie pitcher is whiffs. It’s an instant divider for young hurlers; is he missing bats or over-relying on fortunate batted ball outcomes a la early-career Devin Smeltzer? Guys like that can maybe coast for an extended amount of frames—potentially tricking some into believing their schtick is effective—but they inevitably fall off into nothingness, becoming a random memory only activated after an extended Baseball-Reference adventure. 

Festa has the juice: his 29.1 K% is right up there with strikeout artists like Nick Pivetta (28.6%) and Cole Ragans (29.5%). Amongst starters with at least 40 innings, Festa ranks 11th in strikeout rate, above both Joe Ryan and Pablo López.

How does he do it? Well, take a look at the heat maps for his pitches:

It’s gorgeous. If you’re a modern pitcher, you can’t do much better. Fastball goes up, offspeed goes down, and the slider and changeup nail their appropriate locations—down and away to whatever handedness batter so happens to stand in the box. 

Despite the relatively limited selection—Festa has only thrown a four-seamer, slider, or changeup since being drafted—he effectively throws everything in whatever count he pleases. He starts batters with an off-speed pitch more often than not. The same is true in all even counts. Even when the hitter is ahead in the count—and a misstep could turn a situation deadly—Festa holds steady and is still likely to toss something soft. And he does so with the kind of precision only seen in the finest German engineers. 

One at-bat from his most recent start stuck out to me. Facing Josh Lowe in the first, Festa got ahead quickly, battled a bit, and erased Lowe with a ridiculous changeup. He never wavered from his game plan; he simply executed against a pretty good hitter with the gumption of a pitcher far wiser than his age would imply. 

I think what strikes me most about Festa is how dead simple his plan is: he rarely deviates from using fastballs and sliders to righties, and fastballs and changeups to lefties, but he’s just so damn good at commanding the offerings, it doesn’t really matter. He could probably tell the hitter what’s coming and still be successful. That makes him atypical in this age of young pitchers who decimate their opponents with pure, overwhelming stuff but don’t seem to “know how to pitch” to steal a perhaps overused but occasionally helpful idiom. 

The only main bugaboo afflicting Festa is a bizarre second-time-through-the-order penalty that doesn’t seem to understand it’s one time too early. It’s strange. 19 of his 25 career earned runs have come when facing hitters a second time, and the righty struggled in the 3rd and 4th innings at AAA this year as well, the frames that officially mark when a lineup has turned over. Is this real? Is it noise? I guess we’ll see.

It feels a little lame to conclude with a truism, but what makes Festa so special is that he has three (maybe two and a half) legitimate offerings that he can command well and will throw in any count, in any situation, against batters both right and left. He’s not a specialist. His weapons aren’t plentiful, but they’re effective—and he knows how to use all of them. Festa’s young major league career appears to augur a future as a rotation staple, and there may still be more to come.

 

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[Karbo]

So far, so good. Now we find out over the next couple of seasons if he can stand the test of time. Can he adjust as hitters adjust to him?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Well written Matt! Very entertaining!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

How low has the bar dropped when we are supposed to be excited for a 4.75 ERA?

[jimbo92107]

Good  article. Did the graphics for changeup and slider somehow get swapped? I like the knees and elbows look of Festa's delivery. That's where he gets his power. 

[DJL44]

A pitcher who only throws 2 pitches to righties and 2 pitches to lefties is not likely to be able to make it a 3rd time through the order with any success. Batters will adjust.

[thelanges5]

Starting pitching has been looking pretty good and that’s what I was most worried about after Ryan’s injury. Turns out I should’ve been more worried about the hitting. Twins in the last 3 weeks are hitting .236/.294/.379 (8th worst in MLB).

[USAFChief]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

A pitcher who only throws 2 pitches to righties and 2 pitches to lefties is not likely to be able to make it a 3rd time through the order with any success. Batters will adjust.

That same thought occurred to me, and would be a possible source of the problems second time through the order as well.

[LambchoP]

He's had a pretty good debut in his small sample size. I think he'll need to develop another pitch if he wants to do better pitching to a lineup two or three times. As with most young pitchers, he could stand to improve his control and command too. Overall I think Festa and SWR should be solid, cost controllable starters who can give us competitive starts, as long as we can keep them healthy. Health and injuries are usually the main issues with this team year after year. It's always oh, we have so much SP depth, IF all the starters pitch all year. This lineup could be deadly, IF we ever get Correa Buxton and Lewis to play together.....

[S Bart]

I have to chuckle at his intensity in the dugout between innings. He paces back and forth and never sits down. When his mother was interviewed by Audra during his first start, she said that he has always been that way. He gave a very decent post-game interview.

One concern that I have is Baldelli's treatment of these three young starters. I am certain that Ober was very deflated the way he pulled on Saturday. A manager's treatment of his pitchers' mindsets can impact them greatly. It was a reason why Sonny Gray departed the Twins.

[Brandon]

Having Festa and Zebby ready and Morris with Dobnak in AAA waiting, will allow the Twins to either trade Paddack or move him to the pen next season.  
 

After giving up 12 earned runs in 10 innings to start his career he has only given up 13 in 37.33 innings a 3.13 ERA

[Matt Braun]

31 minutes ago, S Bart said:

I have to chuckle at his intensity in the dugout between innings. He paces back and forth and never sits down. When his mother was interviewed by Audra during his first start, she said that he has always been that way. He gave a very decent post-game interview.

One concern that I have is Baldelli's treatment of these three young starters. I am certain that Ober was very deflated the way he pulled on Saturday. A manager's treatment of his pitchers' mindsets can impact them greatly. It was a reason why Sonny Gray departed the Twins.

I'm about 90% sure the Twins not offering Gray a serious contract was the reason he left, but I could be wrong. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Matt Braun said:

I'm about 90% sure the Twins not offering Gray a serious contract was the reason he left, but I could be wrong. 

Considering Gray was on record as saying the Twins checked all the boxes in regard to what he was looking for and he certainly presented his experience in Minnesota highly favorably.

https://www.mlb.com/news/sonny-gray-on-possible-future-with-twins-before-hitting-free-agency
 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Having Festa and Zebby ready and Morris with Dobnak in AAA waiting, will allow the Twins to either trade Paddack or move him to the pen next season.  
 

After giving up 12 earned runs in 10 innings to start his career he has only given up 13 in 37.33 innings a 3.13 ERA

I'd be surprised if the front office moved Paddack to the 'pen given their aversion for paying relievers. I think the front office has been much more willing to eat salary or trade assets to move players they don't think fit the organization. I expect the Twins will aggressively shop Paddack, and they'll be willing to part with money from their international signing bonus pool to get it done.

[bean5302]

I'm concerned about Festa remaining serviceable in the rotation, but his overall Stuff+ values are average, with other pitch modeling systems being much more bullish on Festa's changeup. Time will tell how Festa performs as the scouting reports get better. Festa certainly has a lot less margin for error with his limited pitch repertoire than a guy like Zebby Matthews, but Matthews' actual stuff doesn't include as good of a fastball or a true plus pitch right now.

I think both guys may have what it takes to stick at the back end of a rotation, but they both have some work to do if they're going to excel in the future.

With the tight budget ownership is expected to cinch down on the front office for 2025, rotational depth is likely going to be a major weakness for the Twins.

[Brandon]

30 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd be surprised if the front office moved Paddack to the 'pen given their aversion for paying relievers. I think the front office has been much more willing to eat salary or trade assets to move players they don't think fit the organization. I expect the Twins will aggressively shop Paddack, and they'll be willing to part with money from their international signing bonus pool to get it done.

I agree with you.  But if they can't find a trade partner then the pen is where he will be.  As long as he can show he is healthy, I think someone will take a chance on him.  7.5 million isn't too much for a 5th starter with his potential.  

 

I can also see the Twins missing out on an opportunity because they can't trade him and are forced to have him on the roster to show he is healthy before someone trades for him.  They will then either give him a few starts to show he is healthy or have him pitch in relief maybe as a piggy back pitcher and get 3-5 innings after the starter. until he can be traded.  but I think if he is back with the team next year he will likely be pushed into relief.  

[Brandon]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm concerned about Festa remaining serviceable in the rotation, but his overall Stuff+ values are average, with other pitch modeling systems being much more bullish on Festa's changeup. Time will tell how Festa performs as the scouting reports get better. Festa certainly has a lot less margin for error with his limited pitch repertoire than a guy like Zebby Matthews, but Matthews' actual stuff doesn't include as good of a fastball or a true plus pitch right now.

I think both guys may have what it takes to stick at the back end of a rotation, but they both have some work to do if they're going to excel in the future.

With the tight budget ownership is expected to cinch down on the front office for 2025, rotational depth is likely going to be a major weakness for the Twins.

Also for next year we have Morris about ready to debut and Lewis is also likely to be ready at some point too.  so we will have options next year.  and Dobnak too if too many injuries occur.  

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

with Dobnak in AAA waiting

Randy Dobnak is irrelevant to any decisions they will make about the roster, or should be.

[S Bart]

2 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

I'm about 90% sure the Twins not offering Gray a serious contract was the reason he left, but I could be wrong. 

Probably right, but there is proof via comments that he made last year that he wasn't pleased with being pulled in situations similar to what took place with Ober on Saturday. Well, he has been having a decent year in St. Louis. The Twins sure could have used him this year, but we needed the money to pay for the Buxton's continued IL stints and Correa's return to the IL. :(

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'd be surprised if the front office moved Paddack to the 'pen given their aversion for paying relievers. I think the front office has been much more willing to eat salary or trade assets to move players they don't think fit the organization. I expect the Twins will aggressively shop Paddack, and they'll be willing to part with money from their international signing bonus pool to get it done.

Id guess there's a 95% chance Paddack starts 2025 in the Twins rotation. 

 

 

 

[Linus]

Perhaps he can learn to throw the slider to lefties- the back foot variety that’s not really thrown to be a strike. 

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Randy Dobnak is irrelevant to any decisions they will make about the roster, or should be.

Hence he was listed as a potential 8th or 9th starter.  The point is that it looks like we should be able to move on from Paddack and reallocate his salary seeing how much depth we have in the rotation.  

[tony&rodney]

11 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

How low has the bar dropped when we are supposed to be excited for a 4.75 ERA?

Maybe you should use wins and losses. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe you should use wins and losses. 

Sorry to burst your bubble, but wins do matter, even in a sabermetric world.  

I am happy to see everyone has turned the corner on expectations for this team.  When you get excited about Festa, Matthews and other guys producing at a SP4/5 or 4A level, you really start accepting mediocrity.

Strikeouts do not equal success.  The fact that he is getting rocked second time through the order tells me teams are adjusting quickly.  Could he start making adjustments?  Sure.  Could other teams start making adjustments as well now that he has been seen by most of the league.  For sure.

No problem being optimistic, but we need to cool the jets a bit on plugging him into the rotation.  Have we not learned about anointing on relatively small sample sizes?  Miranda, Julien, Wallner... all failed miserably after seeing some success.  (Yes, yes, Wallner and Miranda seemingly have figured it out).  Let's see where this goes.

[S Bart]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Considering Gray was on record as saying the Twins checked all the boxes in regard to what he was looking for and he certainly presented his experience in Minnesota highly favorably.

https://www.mlb.com/news/sonny-gray-on-possible-future-with-twins-before-hitting-free-agency
 

Maybe he stated it in the end, but he still wasn't too pleased with the pitching issue. Several sources (articles/interviews/podcasts) document it from his time with the Twins. 

Sonny Gray is Sick of His Short Leash (minnesotasportsfan.com)

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, S Bart said:

Maybe he stated it in the end, but he still wasn't too pleased with the pitching issue. Several sources (articles/interviews/podcasts) document it from his time with the Twins. 

Sonny Gray is Sick of His Short Leash (minnesotasportsfan.com)

That was 2022, and it's not relevant because of what happened in 2023.

Gray was happy with his utilization in 2023 where he pitched 184 innings and went 6+ innings regularly which is why his quotes and comments after 2023 were positive about the Twins.

[Jeff K]

On 9/8/2024 at 12:15 PM, S Bart said:

I have to chuckle at his intensity in the dugout between innings. He paces back and forth and never sits down. When his mother was interviewed by Audra during his first start, she said that he has always been that way. He gave a very decent post-game interview.

One concern that I have is Baldelli's treatment of these three young starters. I am certain that Ober was very deflated the way he pulled on Saturday. A manager's treatment of his pitchers' mindsets can impact them greatly. It was a reason why Sonny Gray departed the Twins.

And I think other players are deflated by Baldelli's treatment as well.  Hopefully, this will get resolved upon the conclusion of the Twins season.  

[S Bart]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

That was 2022, and it's not relevant because of what happened in 2023.

Gray was happy with his utilization in 2023 where he pitched 184 innings and went 6+ innings regularly which is why his quotes and comments after 2023 were positive about the Twins.

Well, my main point revolved around the fact that he pulled Ober last weekend and Rocco has done it in the past in an utterly ridiculous fashion. Just FYI...Gray made a comment this year while with the Cardinals about Rocco and his short leash when he was with the Twins.  If you listen to SKOR North Podcast today, they really highlight this "Rocco pulling habit" and substantiate this via statistics.