Can Louie Varland Step Up? Twins Turn to Struggling Starter Amid Joe Ryan's Injury Woes

[Eric Blonigen]

There have been calls recently for Louie Varland to rejoin the Twins as a late-inning reliever; however, with the news that Joe Ryan will miss significant time with a grade 2 Teres Major strain, typically carrying an eight-week-plus recovery time. Since the Twins didn't make a trade for a starting pitcher at the deadline, this likely pushes Varland into the rotation for the remainder of the season. What can the Twins expect from him this time around? Can he fill Ryan's big shoes?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Varland began the season as the presumptive fifth starter. However, he was ineffective and was optioned to AAA after allowing 17 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings over his first four starts. Varland's performance wasn't just a case of bad luck, either, as his OPS against was a shocking 1.086, turning every hitter into Aaron Judge or Royce Lewis. His struggles continued for his first nearly two months at St Paul, as he pitched to an ugly 7.33 ERA (albeit with a better, but not good, 4.94 FIP). His struggles can be traced to his fastball, as he allowed a .320 BAA and, worse, a .440 wOBA across over 300 pitches between his four-seam and cut fastball. A significant cause of this was location, as he left too many pitches over the heart of the plate. Take a look at his location chart.

However, starting in late June, he has begun to turn things around. Over his past six starts with the Saints, Varland has allowed just five earned runs across 30 1/3 innings while striking out almost 12.0 per nine. He's held his WHIP to a manageable 1.15. His allowed BABIP has been relatively low at .254, suggesting his 4.08 FIP is probably closer to what we should expect from him. Still, as a fifth starter, that's perfectly serviceable.

How has Varland tweaked his approach to generate these improved results? Primarily, he has been targeting the top of the zone with his fastball. This adjustment has led to much less hard contact on his heater. Since then, he's allowed just a .233 OPS against his fastball and is locating up much more frequently (over half the time).

In a pair of spot starts in June, he pitched to a  1.93 ERA with a similar FIP of around 2.30 and held opponents to a .181 wOBA, albeit while facing the hapless Rockies and As. Can we expect this to continue at the big-league level? Can he put up an ERA in the 4s the rest of the way? The Twins had better hope so, or else this season may end similarly to how it began.

What do you think? Has Varland figured it out? Will his recent stretch of solid results continue? Comment below to start the discussion!

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[bean5302]

The Twins can expect a 5.00ish ERA, lots of hard contact, hits and home runs. Varland's stuff plays up out of the bullpen, but it's unlikely to get the job done in the rotation. He struggled in AAA for a reason this year.

In 7 starts at the MLB level this year, zero are considered "quality starts" by the traditional definition. By mine, 5.0+ innings, ERA under 4.00, he's got 1.

In 15 starts in the MiLB system with the Saints, Varland owns a 1.43 WHIP (identical to Randy Dobnak). Simply put, way too many people put on base. A 1.43 WHIP would probably put Varland at the edge of serviceable at the MLB level. Projecting it up from MiLB to MLB isn't promising.

Varland could potentially be a strong asset to the Twins out of the bullpen. The likely loss of Joe Ryan for the rest of the year and the definitive loss of Brock Stewart puts the Twins in a bind since they didn't do much at the deadline, but Varland is likely only a solution out of the pen.

Hopefully, David Festa can continue to prove me wrong and Zebby Matthews looks good. It's a bad spot to be in for the Twins.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

If Louie can ever stop throwing the ball right down the middle with 2 strikes, he could be a pretty decent starter. He's got the stuff

[Karbo]

I've read that the Twins may be in on signing Hill. 

[mikelink45]

I wish, but do not expect him to give us what we really need.  Hill is a silly idea.  I think we keep trying with Zebby if Varland fails as a SP. 

[Nashvilletwin]

He will be a lot better if his fielders behind him catch and throw the ball like big leaguers……..lol.   

[CRF]

Please don't bring Hill back here. Just throw Varland and the rest of the kids out there. Baptism by fire. 

[SaberNerd]

Varland has a good fastball, but hasn't shown the quality secondary pitches to pitch deep into games.  He has a 1.92 ERA the first time through the order and a 10.26 ERA after that.  

My thought is that you sign Rich Hill and then have him and Varland split the starters workload.  Using 2 roster spots isn't ideal, but I think they could combine to give 6 innings of low 4 ERA.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I like the piggyback idea and last night’s performance only reinforced my bias in favor of that approach once again, Varland looked great for about three or four innings, four innings last night, and then the wheels completely fell off. I think it is highly unlikely he is even going to be a “five and fly“ starter for the rest of this year. Maybe in the future, but not now. Putting him at the end of a rotation that has two other young starters who rarely go more than five innings is just going to be too much for the bullpen.

I think we’re going to have to devote two people to the number five starter spot and go with a seven person bullpen. Maybe that second pitcher can be Randy Dobnak or Josh Winder, although I would try Zebby Matthews. The theory would be that both Varland and the second pitcher don’t pitch on any day except the fifth starter spot and are expected to give the team at least seven innings between them. I think it’s a solution much more likely to be effective than hoping that Varland morphs into a guy that can go five or six competitive innings regularly. If he has a start where he can go six innings, that’s great, and the second pitcher handles the last three.

 

 

[Eric Blonigen]

3 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I like the piggyback idea and last night’s performance only reinforced my bias in favor of that approach once again, Varland looked great for about three or four innings, four innings last night, and then the wheels completely fell off. I think it is highly unlikely he is even going to be a “five and fly“ starter for the rest of this year. Maybe in the future, but not now. Putting him at the end of a rotation that has two other young starters who rarely go more than five innings is just going to be too much for the bullpen.

I think we’re going to have to devote two people to the number five starter spot and go with a seven person bullpen. Maybe that second pitcher can be Randy Dobnak or Josh Winder, although I would try Zebby Matthews. The theory would be that both Varland and the second pitcher don’t pitch on any day except the fifth starter spot and are expected to give the team at least seven innings between them. I think it’s a solution much more likely to be effective than hoping that Varland morphs into a guy that can go five or six competitive innings regularly. If he has a start where he can go six innings, that’s great, and the second pitcher handles the last three.

 

 

This is an interesting idea. I would be especially on board if we could get a complete game from the pairing and get a day off from the bullpen. I might be inclined to do this with SWR and Varland.

It could also be interesting if we could find a lefty/righty pairing to piggyback to give a very different look to teams. 

[bean5302]

Rich Hill is 44 years old, hasn't pitched in nearly a year and was ineffective last year putting up the worst ERA he's had since 2013 and the worst FIP he's had since 2009. I guess Hill was serviceable early, but his xFIP sat in that 4.50-5.00 range the entire season.

I'm not sure why there's interest since we have Dobnak, Boushley and Plutko on the roster already. I don't believe Rich Hill is likely better than any of them, let alone all of them.

If the Twins sign Hill, I think the likelihood of Boushley or Plutko getting DFA'd and released is very high. A Matthews promotion likely results in Morris getting promoted as well.

[mark sills]

I think you go with the young arms, Fiesta, Zebby, Andrew Morris and Varland back to bull pen

[Doctor Gast]

As a starter Varland is good 2X thru the order (that may vary depending on the top of the order) so that may last 4-6 innings, I think that if he piggy-backs he could last longer overall depending on where he comes in the order & the team he faces & finish the game. Saving the BP.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I like the piggyback idea and last night’s performance only reinforced my bias in favor of that approach once again, Varland looked great for about three or four innings, four innings last night, and then the wheels completely fell off. I think it is highly unlikely he is even going to be a “five and fly“ starter for the rest of this year. Maybe in the future, but not now. Putting him at the end of a rotation that has two other young starters who rarely go more than five innings is just going to be too much for the bullpen.

I think we’re going to have to devote two people to the number five starter spot and go with a seven person bullpen. Maybe that second pitcher can be Randy Dobnak or Josh Winder, although I would try Zebby Matthews. The theory would be that both Varland and the second pitcher don’t pitch on any day except the fifth starter spot and are expected to give the team at least seven innings between them. I think it’s a solution much more likely to be effective than hoping that Varland morphs into a guy that can go five or six competitive innings regularly. If he has a start where he can go six innings, that’s great, and the second pitcher handles the last three.

 

 

The piggyback idea is never going to happen. 

It's unworkable. You can't have 6 pitchers who only pitch every 5th day.

All that does is put more stress on the bullpen, not less. And there's no guarantee you're getting 6 or 7 innings from the piggyback tandem, btw.

 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

This is an interesting idea. I would be especially on board if we could get a complete game from the pairing and get a day off from the bullpen. I might be inclined to do this with SWR and Varland.

It could also be interesting if we could find a lefty/righty pairing to piggyback to give a very different look to teams. 

Rich Hill would be a LHSP that can pair with a RHP. Plus his mentorship would be very valuable for our young pitchers.

[wabene]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The piggyback idea is never going to happen. 

It's unworkable. You can't have 6 pitchers who only pitch every 5th day.

All that does is put more stress on the bullpen, not less. And there's no guarantee you're getting 6 or 7 innings from the piggyback tandem, btw.

 

Agreed, same with the "low leverage long man" that sits on the end of the bench for a week waiting for the perfect opportunity effectively reducing your pen to 7 arms.

[tony&rodney]

Varland has pitched pretty well lately. He had two decent starts for the Twins in June, was blown up in his return to the minors on 6/23, and since then has given up 5 runs in 30+ innings. So not bad. The numbers last night were skewed by some shoddy defense, which caused him to throw extra pitches. Nobody will ever confuse Varland for an ace but he was tough into the 5th inning last night and just average defense gets him through 6 innings. I will say he absolutely was crushed by the HR and then threw cookies to the next two hitters for base hits. I believe Varland is good going forward for 5 innings of 2-3 runs per outing. We are not going to get that from anyone else for a #5 slot at this point. 

[Unwinder]

Varland will be fine if he doesn't backslide on the fastball location thing.

[LambchoP]

I think we might be seeing Zebby soon. While exciting, calling up guys too early when they're not ready can hurt they're confidence and development....

[Fatbat]

Let the kids pitch. Festa is settling in. Give Varland and Matthews the same chance if the Sheriff has to go to the pen to save his arm.

[bean5302]

19 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Rich Hill would be a LHSP that can pair with a RHP. Plus his mentorship would be very valuable for our young pitchers.

What added "mentorship" can Rich Hill add that Caleb Thielbar couldn't/doesn't already provide?

[Shaitan]

On 8/11/2024 at 12:24 PM, bean5302 said:

What added "mentorship" can Rich Hill add that Caleb Thielbar couldn't/doesn't already provide?

Mentors, just coaches, aren't interchangeable.