Can Louie Varland Step Up? Twins Turn to Struggling Starter Amid Joe Ryan's Injury Woes

The Twins can expect a 5.00ish ERA, lots of hard contact, hits and home runs. Varland's stuff plays up out of the bullpen, but it's unlikely to get the job done in the rotation. He struggled in AAA for a reason this year.

In 7 starts at the MLB level this year, zero are considered "quality starts" by the traditional definition. By mine, 5.0+ innings, ERA under 4.00, he's got 1.

In 15 starts in the MiLB system with the Saints, Varland owns a 1.43 WHIP (identical to Randy Dobnak). Simply put, way too many people put on base. A 1.43 WHIP would probably put Varland at the edge of serviceable at the MLB level. Projecting it up from MiLB to MLB isn't promising.

Varland could potentially be a strong asset to the Twins out of the bullpen. The likely loss of Joe Ryan for the rest of the year and the definitive loss of Brock Stewart puts the Twins in a bind since they didn't do much at the deadline, but Varland is likely only a solution out of the pen.

Hopefully, David Festa can continue to prove me wrong and Zebby Matthews looks good. It's a bad spot to be in for the Twins.

I've read that the Twins may be in on signing Hill. 

I like the piggyback idea and last night’s performance only reinforced my bias in favor of that approach once again, Varland looked great for about three or four innings, four innings last night, and then the wheels completely fell off. I think it is highly unlikely he is even going to be a “five and fly“ starter for the rest of this year. Maybe in the future, but not now. Putting him at the end of a rotation that has two other young starters who rarely go more than five innings is just going to be too much for the bullpen.

I think we’re going to have to devote two people to the number five starter spot and go with a seven person bullpen. Maybe that second pitcher can be Randy Dobnak or Josh Winder, although I would try Zebby Matthews. The theory would be that both Varland and the second pitcher don’t pitch on any day except the fifth starter spot and are expected to give the team at least seven innings between them. I think it’s a solution much more likely to be effective than hoping that Varland morphs into a guy that can go five or six competitive innings regularly. If he has a start where he can go six innings, that’s great, and the second pitcher handles the last three.

Rich Hill is 44 years old, hasn't pitched in nearly a year and was ineffective last year putting up the worst ERA he's had since 2013 and the worst FIP he's had since 2009. I guess Hill was serviceable early, but his xFIP sat in that 4.50-5.00 range the entire season.

I'm not sure why there's interest since we have Dobnak, Boushley and Plutko on the roster already. I don't believe Rich Hill is likely better than any of them, let alone all of them.

If the Twins sign Hill, I think the likelihood of Boushley or Plutko getting DFA'd and released is very high. A Matthews promotion likely results in Morris getting promoted as well.

19 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Rich Hill would be a LHSP that can pair with a RHP. Plus his mentorship would be very valuable for our young pitchers.

What added "mentorship" can Rich Hill add that Caleb Thielbar couldn't/doesn't already provide?