3 Factors That Worked Against the Twins at the Trade Deadline (Other Than Money)

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Why take a lesser package just to avoid trading a rental to a team you don't play again this season (Detroit)? Why take a lesser package just to avoid trading a guy with 1 more year on their deal to a division rival when you're rebuilding next year anyways?

Focusing on other teams when you're rebuilding is a terrible strategy. Who cares where your guys go, especially when they're rentals or on short deals? The focus should be on getting the best possible package to help your team get back to being competitive. If the Sox (or Tigers) did in fact take lesser packages just to keep Fedde or Flaherty out of the division they are going to continue to bring up the rear in the central. "The ask" should always be to top whatever your best offer from another team is. The Twins giving prospects to a division rival should've been far more of a concern than Detroit or Chicago giving the Twins Flaherty or Fedde. And it shouldn't have been much of a concern at all. Build your best team. Worrying about who you trade with does nothing but hurt your ability to build your best team.

If I had the EQUIVALENT package offered from a team in my division as from outside I'd take the one from my in-division rival.

I'm not concerned with the player I'm trading away, but I'd certainly prefer to take the prospects out of my rival's system than from someone who's future success or failure doesn't  impact me as much. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think there's a bit of a difference between starting and relief opportunities. If you actually look at the deadline moves there really wasn't much quality starting pitching moved outside of Fedde, Flaherty, and Kikuchi. I absolutely would not trade Lee, Jenkins, or Emma for any of those three. I'm even a little surprised that Keaschall was dangled but Fedde does have another year so I guess I can of see it. Can't see anything even in our top 10 prospects for Trevor Rogers. When you look at the returns these teams got, I understand why the FO was hesitant to match.

On the relief side, the prices for Tanner Scott and Carlos Estevez were astronomical for a reliever. No way do we pay that. We could and should have tried to get Luis Garcia, Gregory Soto, or even Ryan Yarborough. They we available at much better prospect prices and all would help. 

To me, the bottom line is where you think the team is in terms of competing for a WS spot. If we're close and 1 or 2 guys can get us there, you go for it and overpay, and worry about the fallout later. If not,  you only do something that makes long term sense. 

I don't think this team is 1 or 2 guys away.  I think we're at least 3 or 4 in the form of a strong middle of the order 3-5 bat to go with Correa hitting 2 and Buxton 6, a #2 type starter, a LH late inning reliever, and a solid RH hitting OF to platoon with Larnach.  It's possible that Ober will become a true #2 next season, moving the need down to a #4 (much easier to find). It's possible that Mirnada/Lewis/Wallner will become a strong 3-5 hitting group, or that Emma, Lee, or even Jenkins can fill that role soon, and that Martin can become a solid RH OF platoon option. We don't have the LH reliever in the system. I still think this team is one year away because I think those things can only happen with experience and MLB ABs, including playing Wallner against LH pitching. That's the way to play it this year. If it looks like those things can work, then overpay for a high end LH reliever over the winter.      

 

[LambchoP]

The deal for Chafin from DET was dirt cheap but I understand the asking price would have been way higher for us in the division. But you can't tell me Aj Puk wasn't attainable for us. He's exactly what we needed, a good left handed reliever. Plus he has two more years of control. A perfect replacement for Theilbar as our go to lefty. He is on a cheap contract and all it took was two mid level prospects. When I saw that, I knew we were passing on the deadline.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Fair.

Harsh, but fair.

It seems two different skills.  Selling seems easy, just pick the best offer and trust your scouting.  Buying in your industry's equivalent of a wall street scrum is another ballgame.  Their caution is rewarded with scorn and a couple GMs who are geared towards that environment always do something.  Deadline deals are almost losers by definition and they have reason to be gun shy.

You are right, to be fair, it's very difficult to initiate a trade & for most GMs they probably don't do a good job. Pitching you ideas to a fan base is very different from pitching them to a GM of a team. IMO LAD's GM plays chess while the rest of the league are playing checkers & tic-tac-toe. Their value system is different than most, They value defense & flexibility, they can see players & envision what they can become, know when they can't develop a player any further or if they fit in the club they get rid of them & when they want a Mookie Betts, Edman, Kopech or any player they know they can develop into something they need they creatively go out there & get them. STL benefitted from it while seller CWS did not come out on top.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Multiple counter examples?? Logic??? 

 

Pfffft

 

 

 

 

 

Alas... I'm spitting into the wind.

Too many years of this narrative being built for real life examples to change a mindset hardened by years and years of narrative. 

Dan Hayes is applying more cement.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

Alas... I'm spitting into the wind.

Too many years of this narrative being built for real life examples to change a mindset hardened by years and years of narrative. 

Dan Hayes is applying more cement.  

I think chief is agreeing with you!

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

???

The premise seemed to be that they were willing to entertain trading within the Division (our opponents) but that “the ask” was ridiculously high. Surprising, no!

Why trade to make a foe better in short term unless you get back something that not only helps your club but also stings for the Twins?

I didn’t get anywhere that they absolutely would not trade in the Division.

Let's forget names because their evaluations are subjective from organization to organization. 

Let's just use Good Ole Fashioned numbers. 

Let's say the Dodgers are willing to offer a value of 80 to acquire Flaherty. 

And the Twins are willing to offer a value of 85 to acquire Flaherty and because it's the Twins... They are asking for 90. 

Are you saying that the Tigers will trade to the Dodgers in that scenario? Take the lesser package in other words. 

Or

Is it possible that the ask was too high because once the Twins refuse that 90... They don't have an 85 to offer... Maybe it falls down to a 75.

And therefore possible that the Dodgers had a better collection of players they were willing to part with than the Twins did after they refused the high ask of Jenkins. 

I have no idea but I think it's entirely possible that if the Twins and Tigers did indeed talk about Flaherty. Once the Twins ruled out Jenkins, Lee and Emma for the rental of Flaherty.

Is it possible that the Tigers liked Liranzo better than Festa or Keaschall for example. 

Personally... I'm inclined to believe that the Tigers liked the Dodgers offer the best out of all the offers that were left standing on the table as the trade deadline drew to a close.   

[Riverbrian]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think chief is agreeing with you!

I believe he was.

My post was in agreement with Chief. It is directed at Dan Hayes and others who think that professional GM's are going to refuse a better deal from a team in their division. 

[twinstalker]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Watching Wichita play and Luke Keaschall looks pretty good, much better than Spencer Steer did at the same level, if a comparison works.

Yep, it's not close.  LK is nearly two years younger than Speer was, his K rate is lower, walk rate almost double, hit rate better, probably due to less fly balls, which Speer used to hit more homers.  Speer is now a regular in MLB, Keaschall will be better, maybe much better.  Keaschall for Fedde may have been an appropriate price for this deadline, but given the Twins financials, Keaschall as the Castro replacement makes a lost more sense.

[twinstalker]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

The deal for Chafin from DET was dirt cheap but I understand the asking price would have been way higher for us in the division. 

This division thing is overblown.  I'd fire a GM who wouldn't give up an average rental reliever to a rival.  The only seasons that matter to me are future ones, and if the rival wants someone for next year as good as the rental reliever, they're going to get that someone in one form or another.

If the rival doesn't want to give a bit of a lottery ticket to someone in its own division, I don't know what to tell you.  Just seems so dumb.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If this was indeed the stance of the White Sox and the Tigers. 

Good for us.

Because it would mean that the AL Central has two General Managers in our division that are willing to take a lesser deal in order to remain a child instead of an adult professional trying to get the best deal for their organization. I love it when the opposition self imposes handicaps upon themselves for no reason. 

Obviously... this is a Twins - White Sox issue. They are probably pissed about Escobar turning into something so they said never again and all new GM's with no such baggage sign a pledge when they take the job so they have such Twins bug a boo baggage. There is also a rule in place that all GM's must stand on one foot and hop up and down in perfect 4/4 time while typing. Little rules in place to make the job just a little harder to do. 

The White Sox clearly hate the Twins but they are OK with the Royals. Chris Getz himself was traded from the White Sox to the Royals so Paul DeJong following in his footsteps is hunky dory. As long as its not the Twins. 

The baseball narrative is covered under piles of this type of garbage that purpurates the story of inept GM's. 

 

This is what I took away from it. Sucks for us this year (not that other deals didn't get done), but it reinforces the White Sox maintaining a terrible GM, which I like, and the Tigers making bad decisions, which I also like. I actually think the White Sox were a plausible self inflicted foot injury in this case because I do think that's the most dysfunctional organization in baseball at this point, and Fedde has another year of control.

With the Tigers? I don't buy it. Flaherty was a true rental, they're not making the playoffs this year, and it gives the Tigers an opportunity to weaken a division rival in the future. The level of incompetence necessary to take a far lesser deal isn't reasonable to believe.

Falvey was a lot better in his PR mode interview where he talked about the in division aspects, but ultimately, there were moves which were made and moves which could have been made by a team really going for it.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Dan Hayes has said his sources on this reporting are not from within the Twins organization. Seems odd to hate on the man for doing his job. 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

If I had the EQUIVALENT package offered from a team in my division as from outside I'd take the one from my in-division rival.

I'm not concerned with the player I'm trading away, but I'd certainly prefer to take the prospects out of my rival's system than from someone who's future success or failure doesn't  impact me as much. 

I think it's a matter of degrees. Should a GM refuse to trade an asset to Team A offers a deal that is 50 percent (as if you can measure that) better than Team B, because Team A is in the division? I'm with you and others -- that would be a dumb decision by the GM.

But what if it was only 40 percent better? 30 percent? 10 percent? 1 percent? There may be a number where it makes sense to consider the division component. I don't know what that number is, but no GM is going to publish it. 

So I think it's plausible that the Sox asked for more from the Twins for Fedde than they asked from teams outside the division. But I haven't seen anyone reference the corollary, which is that it's also plausible that the Twins would offer less to the White Sox than they would to a team outside the division, for fear of having the prospect bite them more frequently in future years. And again, that's a matter of degrees, but given that the Twins would be offering young, controllable talent, it's frankly a bigger issue for the Twins than it is for the Sox. The Twins could get bit for six years (or 12 or more if it's multiple prospects), whereas the White Sox only have to worry about one more year on Fedde.

In Falvey's case (and any GM, for that matter), he's going to name that the other team was asking too much because they were in the division, but he's not going to highlight that they would only offer less for the same reason.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I think it's a matter of degrees. Should a GM refuse to trade an asset to Team A offers a deal that is 50 percent (as if you can measure that) better than Team B, because Team A is in the division? I'm with you and others -- that would be a dumb decision by the GM.

But what if it was only 40 percent better? 30 percent? 10 percent? 1 percent? There may be a number where it makes sense to consider the division component. I don't know what that number is, but no GM is going to publish it. 

So I think it's plausible that the Sox asked for more from the Twins for Fedde than they asked from teams outside the division. But I haven't seen anyone reference the corollary, which is that it's also plausible that the Twins would offer less to the White Sox than they would to a team outside the division, for fear of having the prospect bite them more frequently in future years. And again, that's a matter of degrees, but given that the Twins would be offering young, controllable talent, it's frankly a bigger issue for the Twins than it is for the Sox. The Twins could get bit for six years (or 12 or more if it's multiple prospects), whereas the White Sox only have to worry about one more year on Fedde.

In Falvey's case (and any GM, for that matter), he's going to name that the other team was asking too much because they were in the division, but he's not going to highlight that they would only offer less for the same reason.

Which is why no GM ever trades within the division. 

Except when they do. All the time.

I don't believe division had anything to do with anything. Chicago took what they thought was the best deal offered. So did Detroit. 

Falvine had no money.

 

 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

Whether the division trades didn't happen out of spite, incompetence or different perspective, we should be used to it by now and expect it to continue going forward. The Twins play in the one division where there are always at least two and usually three sellers every single deadline. 

And it won't be getting any better if spite and incompetence were any part of the motivating factors.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

This is what I took away from it. Sucks for us this year (not that other deals didn't get done), but it reinforces the White Sox maintaining a terrible GM, which I like, and the Tigers making bad decisions, which I also like. I actually think the White Sox were a plausible self inflicted foot injury in this case because I do think that's the most dysfunctional organization in baseball at this point, and Fedde has another year of control.

With the Tigers? I don't buy it. Flaherty was a true rental, they're not making the playoffs this year, and it gives the Tigers an opportunity to weaken a division rival in the future. The level of incompetence necessary to take a far lesser deal isn't reasonable to believe.

Falvey was a lot better in his PR mode interview where he talked about the in division aspects, but ultimately, there were moves which were made and moves which could have been made by a team really going for it.

I've never met Greenberg or Getz nor watched them work. 

Both of them are fairly new at their jobs. But... I think they should be allowed some time to build what they are building so I really don't have a judgement on them. When I do have a judgement... it won't be worth much when I spend my time on the couch watching Twins games on Cable. 

I'm simply not ready to believe that new at their jobs or not that they would turn down a better offer from the Twins. 

Do I believe what they asked of the Twins was high... Absolutely. But I don't believe it's a division thing. I'd tend to believe that the ask would be high from all general managers.

I believe it is possible that there is a significant drop off between the value of Jenkins, Lee or Emma and the value of Keaschall. I believe it is possible that the difference in valuation between Emma and Keaschall is large enough that a Liranzo could slide in between. Therefore Detroit never has to move off the original ask of Jenkins, Lee or Emma. But If I'm the Tigers... Why wouldn't I ask for the Moon incase a team becomes desperate enough to give you the moon. 

If the White Sox want to send Fedde, Kopech and Pham and get back Vargas and a couple of  decently regarded Low A prospects in return. That's there choice.

If the White Sox turned down more from the Twins for Fedde alone. Getz won't be in the job long. 

 

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If the White Sox turned down more from the Twins for Fedde alone. Getz won't be in the job long. 

 

What he said.

[bean5302]

Let's look at the ACTUAL trade.

Flaherty valued at 9.3 traded to the Dodgers for 19.60 of assets.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/173210

Fedde was more complicated since he was moved with Kopech. Fedde +19, Kopech -0.7 was moved for 8.00 of total assets.

What are the Twins prospects valued at close to the deadline?
Jenkins = 58.3
Rodriguez = 46.6
Lee = 38.7
-----------------
Julien = 27.6
Keaschall = 20.7
Flaherty Actual Value Trade 19.60
Wallner = 17.6
Matthews = 15.1
Festa 13.4
Fedde Actual Value Trade 8.0
Gonzalez = 8.0
Raya = 5.1
Keirsey = 2.9

Now BaseballTradeValues is imperfect, but for major prospects and players, it generally lines up pretty closely with what actually happens. The Twins' top 3 were worth anywhere from 200% to 700% of what the actual trade compensation wound up at. Keaschall on his own is valued higher than any player traded. I don't care how terrible a GM is, turning down a compensation package which starts with a player worth more than any other guy moved is pretty nonsensical, and being a GM isn't an easy job to get. Generally, a lack of complete insanity is part of the mix.

[ashbury]

If they planned to trade Kepler, then they needed to get his replacement up to speed sooner than this.  They have shown no confidence in either Larnach or Wallner against lefties.  Kepler by contrast is not a platoon bat.  I didn't buy any talk of trading Kepler unless it was a "wave the white flag" move.

"3 Factors" or not, they didn't make any moves at the deadline.  They had a roster very much in the mix for a post-season berth, maybe a good run in the post-season - and made no moves.  That's their professional judgement and I'm fine with that - it's what they're paid for.  But once the offseason starts, it's how they'll be judged.  To not even make a significant move is "a bold move, Cotton."  Three factors are what they can explain at an interview for their next job.

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I believe he was.

My post was in agreement with Chief. It is directed at Dan Hayes and others who think that professional GM's are going to refuse a better deal from a team in their division. 

It's about the degree of "better" they are demanding.

More than that, none of us have any problem believing the Twins are willing to do dumb, irrational things.  We're living in that moment right now by a decade's worth of dumb decisions on their broadcasting alone. (And I'm sure we could come up with a lengthy list of others!)  A blind chimp could've seen the problems coming and yet....here we are.

Not everything everyone does is rational.  And definitely not in baseball where tradition matters far more than common sense.

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Let's look at the ACTUAL trade.

Flaherty valued at 9.3 traded to the Dodgers for 19.60 of assets.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/173210

Fedde was more complicated since he was moved with Kopech. Fedde +19, Kopech -0.7 was moved for 8.00 of total assets.

What are the Twins prospects valued at close to the deadline?
Jenkins = 58.3
Rodriguez = 46.6
Lee = 38.7
-----------------
Julien = 27.6
Keaschall = 20.7
Flaherty Actual Value Trade 19.60
Wallner = 17.6
Matthews = 15.1
Festa 13.4
Fedde Actual Value Trade 8.0
Gonzalez = 8.0
Raya = 5.1
Keirsey = 2.9

Now BaseballTradeValues is imperfect, but for major prospects and players, it generally lines up pretty closely with what actually happens. The Twins' top 3 were worth anywhere from 200% to 700% of what the actual trade compensation wound up at. Keaschall on his own is valued higher than any player traded. I don't care how terrible a GM is, turning down a compensation package which starts with a player worth more than any other guy moved is pretty nonsensical, and being a GM isn't an easy job to get. Generally, a lack of complete insanity is part of the mix.

Here's another thing that bugs me about this whole thing. 

Why would anyone in the Twins organization... Whoever this source is. Why would anyone in the Twins organization tell some social media guy that the Twins were willing to move Keaschall? Why would anyone in the Twins organization actually let his mother read this sentiment publicly. Why would anyone express that Jenkins, Lee and Emma are untouchable but Keaschall... Touch him all you want. 

On top of that... Why would anyone in the White Sox organization tell some social media guy that they wouldn't take a better offer from the Twins? Why would they express to some social media guy that they had had no interest in Keaschall? 

If Keaschall hits the majors and wins rookie of the year with a 4 digit OPS.

The White Sox are going to look bad for having no interest and the Twins are going to hear from Keaschall's mother because she has no confidence in an organization that was willing to trade the next Nolan Arenado. 

If any of this true. The Twins organization and the White Sox should be hunting down this source with a pink slip in the other hand. 

Now what I can believe is this: Some Social Media person took something from someone, somewhere and another social media person took it from there to another level and then the readers, viewers, consumers took it another level beyond that.  

And pretty soon we are storming the Capitol. 

[Rosterman]

C'mon. The Twins had names like Kepler, Julien available. Margot could be gone and easily replaced. Plus there are at least 140 prospects in the Twins system that could be involved in a trade, as well as maybe 1-2 of the top 25, if push really came to shove.

The Twins NOT moving players who will basically walk come season's end (Kepler, Margot and prety much everyone on the St. paul roster) mixed with a shortstop, outfield and possible arm prospect.

 

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

It's about the degree of "better" they are demanding.

More than that, none of us have any problem believing the Twins are willing to do dumb, irrational things.  We're living in that moment right now by a decade's worth of dumb decisions on their broadcasting alone. (And I'm sure we could come up with a lengthy list of others!)  A blind chimp could've seen the problems coming and yet....here we are.

Not everything everyone does is rational.  And definitely not in baseball where tradition matters far more than common sense.

I have no problem believing that anyone is willing to do dumb, irrational things and you know that I agree with you about MLB baseball taking short term dollars to put off the solving a longer term problem. Blackouts by 28 baseball teams in the state of Iowa since the Herbert Hoover administration is all you need to know about that.  

I agree that a degree of better is also a possible consideration. Let's just use the all things being equal and assume... OK... let's not trade in our division. In the case of a tiebreaker... Let's screw the Twins. I could buy that. 

What I can't believe is an organization, dumb, irrational or not: Saying in a room full of people who are judging you like co-workers judge you. Saying... Man... I really like this Keaschall guy but we can't take him if it helps the Twins. Let's take somebody we don't like as much.

It's just more important that we screw the Twins. We can try to get better later.     

[TheLeviathan]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I have no problem believe that anyone is willing to do dumb, irrational things and you know that I agree with you about MLB baseball taking short term dollars to put off the solving a longer term problem. Blackouts by 28 baseball teams in the state of Iowa since the Herbert Hoover administration is all you need to know about that.  

I agree that a degree of better is also a possible consideration. Let's just use the all things being equal and assume... OK... let's not trade in our division. In the case of a tiebreaker... Let's screw the Twins. I could buy that. 

What I can't believe is an organization, dumb, irrational or not: Saying in a room full of people who are judging you like co-workers judge you. Saying... Man... I really like this Keaschall guy but we can't take him if it helps the Twins. Let's take somebody we don't like as much.

It's just more important that we screw the Twins. We can try to get better later.     

Totally get you, but nothing short-sighted, stupid, or irrational surprises me in baseball.  I mean...you've seen the leaked trade talks from the Astros scandal right?  It defies explanation.

The Twins should have done more this offseason and done more not to put themselves in this situation.  It's also possible that other teams do things that make absolutely no sense.  After all...ours certainly does.

[nicksaviking]

No idea about the accuracy of the reports of the divisional trades, but refusing one for a rental player out of fear of what the Twins might do sounds more like something an out-of-his-depth owner would quash rather than a GM who's still got to prove himself.

[bean5302]

50 minutes ago, ashbury said:

If they planned to trade Kepler, then they needed to get his replacement up to speed sooner than this.  They have shown no confidence in either Larnach or Wallner against lefties.  Kepler by contrast is not a platoon bat.  I didn't buy any talk of trading Kepler unless it was a "wave the white flag" move.

"3 Factors" or not, they didn't make any moves at the deadline.  They had a roster very much in the mix for a post-season berth, maybe a good run in the post-season - and made no moves.  That's their professional judgement and I'm fine with that - it's what they're paid for.  But once the offseason starts, it's how they'll be judged.  To not even make a significant move is "a bold move, Cotton."  Three factors are what they can explain at an interview for their next job.

Kepler gets regularly platooned so I'm not sure why you think otherwise? Over his career, Kepler has significant splits RHP and LHP, though the splits have narrowed over the years, ironically as the team has trusted him less and less because Broken Macro Baldelli's spreadsheets demand he immediately have security remove all the team's lefty hitters from the stadium the moment an opponent starts warming a lefty up in the bullpen. In fact, he watches the opponent's pitching coach and manager closely for movement towards the bullpen phone.

Baldelli & Falvey
2024 - vs. LHP 61 PA (1.4 PA/G), vs. RHP 250 PA (3.1 PA/G) Ratio 24%
2023 - vs. LHP 97 PA (1.6 PA/G), vs. RHP 394 PA (3.2 PA/G) Ratio 25%
2022 - vs. LHP 119 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 327 PA (3.1 PA/G) Ratio 36%
2021 - vs. LHP 129 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 361 PA (3.2 PA/G) Ratio 39%
2020 - vs. LHP 53 PA (1.6 PA/G), vs. RHP 143 PA (3.0 PA/G) Ratio 37%
2019 - vs. LHP 163 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 433 PA (3.4 PA/G) Ratio 38%
------- Molitor & Falvey
2018 - vs. LHP 167 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 444 PA (3.0 PA/G) Ratio 38%
2017 - vs. LHP 137 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 431 PA (3.2 PA/G) Ratio 32%
------- Molitor & Ryan
2016 - vs. LHP 133 PA (2.2 PA/G). vs. RHP 314 PA (3.2 PA/G) Ratio 42%

Personally, I don't know as Kepler had much trade value. League average bat, good defense, but $10MM for a guy on a 1.5-2.0 WAR season path really deletes the surplus value.

[Vanimal46]

Eric Fedde’s first start with the Cardinals today against the lowly Cubs. 

5 IP - 6 H - 5 ER - 4 K - 2 HR allowed 

[ashbury]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Kepler gets regularly platooned so I'm not sure why you think otherwise? Over his career, Kepler has significant splits RHP and LHP, though the splits have narrowed over the years, ironically as the team has trusted him less and less because Broken Macro Baldelli's spreadsheets demand he immediately have security remove all the team's lefty hitters from the stadium the moment an opponent starts warming a lefty up in the bullpen. In fact, he watches the opponent's pitching coach and manager closely for movement towards the bullpen phone.

Baldelli & Falvey
2024 - vs. LHP 61 PA (1.4 PA/G), vs. RHP 250 PA (3.1 PA/G) Ratio 24%
2023 - vs. LHP 97 PA (1.6 PA/G), vs. RHP 394 PA (3.2 PA/G) Ratio 25%
2022 - vs. LHP 119 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 327 PA (3.1 PA/G) Ratio 36%
2021 - vs. LHP 129 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 361 PA (3.2 PA/G) Ratio 39%
2020 - vs. LHP 53 PA (1.6 PA/G), vs. RHP 143 PA (3.0 PA/G) Ratio 37%
2019 - vs. LHP 163 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 433 PA (3.4 PA/G) Ratio 38%
------- Molitor & Falvey
2018 - vs. LHP 167 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 444 PA (3.0 PA/G) Ratio 38%
2017 - vs. LHP 137 PA (1.8 PA/G), vs. RHP 431 PA (3.2 PA/G) Ratio 32%
------- Molitor & Ryan
2016 - vs. LHP 133 PA (2.2 PA/G). vs. RHP 314 PA (3.2 PA/G) Ratio 42%

Personally, I don't know as Kepler had much trade value. League average bat, good defense, but $10MM for a guy on a 1.5-2.0 WAR season path really deletes the surplus value.

Humorous exaggeration aside, we all know that Rocco likes to platoon.  But a 13-man squad puts a limit on that tactic - sometimes you have to leave your lefty hitter in, or run out of substitutes.  Kepler leads all the lefty batters in PA against lefty pitchers this season, and it's not close - more PA than the other 5, in fact. 

If Kepler is gone, they have no heir apparent, no Plan B.

Trading away Duran, a rumor for a little while there, is by contrast a whole lot more plausible as there does exist someone we could anticipate taking the reins as closer.

I agree Max hasn't got much trade value.

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Let's look at the ACTUAL trade.

Flaherty valued at 9.3 traded to the Dodgers for 19.60 of assets.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/173210

Fedde was more complicated since he was moved with Kopech. Fedde +19, Kopech -0.7 was moved for 8.00 of total assets.

What are the Twins prospects valued at close to the deadline?
Jenkins = 58.3
Rodriguez = 46.6
Lee = 38.7
-----------------
Julien = 27.6
Keaschall = 20.7
Flaherty Actual Value Trade 19.60
Wallner = 17.6
Matthews = 15.1
Festa 13.4
Fedde Actual Value Trade 8.0
Gonzalez = 8.0
Raya = 5.1
Keirsey = 2.9

Now BaseballTradeValues is imperfect, but for major prospects and players, it generally lines up pretty closely with what actually happens. The Twins' top 3 were worth anywhere from 200% to 700% of what the actual trade compensation wound up at. Keaschall on his own is valued higher than any player traded. I don't care how terrible a GM is, turning down a compensation package which starts with a player worth more than any other guy moved is pretty nonsensical, and being a GM isn't an easy job to get. Generally, a lack of complete insanity is part of the mix.

I find myself pretty impressed by BTV. It my be imperfect but I've never found anything less imperfect.

60% of the time... it works every time. 

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Totally get you, but nothing short-sighted, stupid, or irrational surprises me in baseball.  I mean...you've seen the leaked trade talks from the Astros scandal right?  It defies explanation.

The Twins should have done more this offseason and done more not to put themselves in this situation.  It's also possible that other teams do things that make absolutely no sense.  After all...ours certainly does.

The Astros shouldn't have used "Password" as their password.