The Twins Don't Need Another Righty Setup Man

[Greggory Masterson]

Trading for a good (but not great) reliever at the trade deadline: it’s the easiest trade to make for contenders' front offices. But the Twins don’t need to do it this year.

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Every year, roughly a dozen right-handed setup men get flipped from a team out of contention to a playoff hopeful. Teams packing it in for the year—and potentially future years—are often eager to find their reliable reliever a new home and an opportunity to throw in the playoffs, and contending teams are happy to take them in, at the cost of a low-wattage prospect or two.

This type of player, given the large supply of them and their debatable effect (a setup man does much less for a team than a star first baseman), doesn’t cost much. As an example, consider the Twins’ recent trade deadline acquisitions. Since 2019, they’ve made six trades for big-league talent, and three of those trades were for right-handed setup men.

Most recently, the Twins traded for Michael Fulmer, who gave them 24 solid innings down the stretch in 2022, sending starting pitching prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long to Detroit. Gipson-Long underwent Tommy John surgery after four solid starts for the Tigers in 2023.

In 2019, the club acquired two such relievers: Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. Romo pitched well enough down the stretch to get a second year with the Twins, and his return for the Marlins, Lewin Díaz, made the big leagues, but failed to stick as a first baseman. Likewise, the players the Giants received—Prelander Berroa, Jaylin Davis, Kai-Wei Teng—for Dyson (who, it is sometimes hard to remember, was a very good reliever at the time of the trade) have struggled to gain their footing in the majors. Still, each has had at least a cup of coffee.

As one would expect, the prospect capital expended for these three relievers was modest. But there was risk. Gipson-Long, for example, has a reasonable shot at being an MLB starter if he recovers well from elbow surgery. Even if that career hadn’t come with the Twins, his value was surrendered for two months of a player who ranked fourth or fifth in the bullpen pecking order.

At times, even a moderate risk might not be worth it. This might be one of those times.

Consider the current back end of the Twins bullpen. It’s anchored by Jhoan Durán (one of the most exciting relievers in baseball) and Griffin Jax—considered by many to be even better. Surrounding them are the likes of Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcalá, and Josh Staumont, though each comes with their own questions.

Stewart has significant injury question marks and has not pitched in two months, but he would fit into the same tier as Durán and Jax. Alcala is finally hitting his stride, but doesn’t have a long résumé. Staumont is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome and walking too many batters, but he is pumping triple-digit velocity and improving as he recovers.

That’s a decent enough collection of potential playoff arms. But there’s more. Come October, the Twins might attempt a ramp-down for some of their starting pitchers, echoing their strategy in 2023—in which Louie Varland, Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda each pitched in relief. Varland and Paddack were especially impressive, and could reprise their relief roles this year. That assumes someone takes Paddack’s spot in the rotation, of course. Beyond Paddack and Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa are each quality candidates to ramp down, focus on their best pitches, and pump up their velocity in shorter appearances for the playoffs.

It’s easy to see how a playoff bullpen—which only needs, maybe, five good righty pitchers—could fill up and render another Alcalá or Justin Topa-level pitcher redundant (humor me here, but even Topa could find his way into the picture). If the Twins spring for another righty, it needs to be someone in the Durán-Jax-Stewart territory, moving incumbents out of the picture.

Anything else probably isn’t worth the prospect risk.

From the left-handed side, however: sure. Go right ahead. Lefty relief has been a sore spot for the Twins. Caleb Thielbar has been slumping in his age-37 season, nowhere close to fulfilling his top lefty role of years past. Steven Okert has been Steven Okert, and Kody Funderburk has not taken the step forward many hoped to see this season.

There’s a world wherein any of those three is a secondary lefty on a playoff team, but there’s no reason to turn to them over one of the big three (and arguably even Alcalá), even against lefties. A lefty Alcalá-type would be perfectly reasonable, and that’s where the Twins should focus their attention—if they’re shopping in the setup man section at all.

Is it unreasonable to seek some regular season depth (for the right price)? No. Another Romo-for-Díaz swap is palatable. But it really doesn’t do much in terms of a playoff bullpen. The sights should be set higher than that.

The 2022 Jorge López trade was a mess. López failed to even be useful as a Twin, and the package sent back to Baltimore almost immediately began outperforming him. He himself was flipped to Miami in 2023 for Dylan Floro, a reliever who was designated for assignment before the playoffs began. But this kind of trade would bring value to this year’s team. It has its own heightened level of risk, but if you’re shopping for righties, they should be righties who can help in October, not just August.

Make a good trade for a lefty sixth-inning guy. Make a trade for a righty eighth- or ninth-inning guy. Trade for a starter, to facilitate that shift into a relief role for one or more of Varland, Woods Richardson, and Paddack. But don’t make a trade for a righty sixth-inning guy who won't factor into a playoff bullpen. It doesn’t move the needle, and it’s simply prospect risk you don’t need to take.

View full article

[Brandon]

If Pittsburgh sells, we should go after Chapman and if Texas sells Yates.  I'd agree that if we go after a reliever, we need to go after a top tier one.  we do have 7 competent or better relievers without considering Topa or Varland or any other starting pitcher or all of the depth options in AAA.

[Dman]

I get the lefty urge as all three of Thielbar, Okert and Funderburk have been less than reliable, but unless they are getting a closer type Lefty I don't think it will be worth it.  Given the way things have worked out in the past for the Twins and several other teams I just don't see the need this year.

Even when it comes to a starter I see the team standing pat this year trusting in the guys they have instead of a grass is greener scenario.  Unless one of their big three gets injured I think they have the arms and bats to make it all the way if they play well.

I know lot's of other people think differently and I get it.  It is just the returns on their deadline deals have been so poor it doesn't seem worth it to me. I think they are better off believing in the guys they have.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

46 minutes ago, Brandon said:

If Pittsburgh sells, we should go after Chapman and if Texas sells Yates.  I'd agree that if we go after a reliever, we need to go after a top tier one.  we do have 7 competent or better relievers without considering Topa or Varland or any other starting pitcher or all of the depth options in AAA.

I wouldn't spend much to get Chapman. Not a fan personally, his velo is down 1.5 mph, he's getting lit up when he gives up contact and walking over 20% of the batters he faces. All his peripherals support an ERA in the 4s. 

[DJL44]

I don't see the Twins as traditional buyers at this deadline but there will be an opportunity to make trades. They might swap veterans for veterans with another contender or swap young talent for young talent since they are a bit overloaded on position players compared to pitchers.

If they're just looking for a rental lefty reliever they should be calling the Marlins. They seem to like trading with the Reds and Marlins.

[JD-TWINS]

Without some injuries through July, I don’t see any trades happening for a reliever at any level of competence.

Topa - Sands - Funderburk - Thielbar are all possibilities for the last spot in October.

Alcala - Staumont - Okert/Thielbar - Paddack - Varland - Stewart - Jax - Duran seems really good to me!

Thielbar was written off by me 3-4 weeks ago. He got 8 days off in mid-June & since June 20th he’s appeared 6 times. He’s thrown 5 1/3 innings with 2 walks (in one outing) & 5 K’s……..zero earned runs while giving up just 1 hit over those 6 appearances. He sure seems confident & serious about regaining his status on this club!

[LambchoP]

I think we need an impact starter with another year of control at least. We could then move Paddack to the bullpen strengthening our rotation and relief corps. All we need then is a set up type lefty reliever and I'd be happy with our deadline. Of course, if we could trade Farmer, Margot and or Santana for anything at all would be a bonus:)

[strumdatjag]

12 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I think we need an impact starter with another year of control at least. We could then move Paddack to the bullpen strengthening our rotation and relief corps. All we need then is a set up type lefty reliever and I'd be happy with our deadline. Of course, if we could trade Farmer, Margot and or Santana for anything at all would be a bonus:)

The Twins will not open their wallet to sign a quality starter.  The only cheap one who could help played in Mexico this year and is controversial (especially here at TD). .  
With Stewart and Topa returning and Varland, Festa, even Dobber in the minors, the Twins are going to be deciding who needs to be left OFF any  playoff roster.  They have no need to trade for another reliever to add to that question. 
Nothing can or should be done before the deadline. 

[LambchoP]

6 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

The Twins will not open their wallet to sign a quality starter.  The only cheap one who could help played in Mexico this year and is controversial (especially here at TD). .  
With Stewart and Topa returning and Varland, Festa, even Dobber in the minors, the Twins are going to be deciding who needs to be left OFF any  playoff roster.  They have no need to trade for another reliever to add to that question. 
Nothing can or should be done before the deadline. 

I think at the very least we need a lefty for the bullpen. Maybe we keep one of either Theilbar or Okert for our playoff roster but I've got little to no faith in either of them in close games.

[Trov]

I agree we do not need a righty set up man.  We could use upgrade from left side though.  

[chpettit19]

I don't trust any of their lefties at all so I'd like to see a good lefty arm brought in. Tanner Scott would be the dream, but he's likely going to cost a ton in prospects. The righties are interesting, though.

I know everyone was excited about Varland in the pen last year, but it was 12 innings. And there was some hard contact in there. Can Staumont and Stewart stay healthy until and through October? Topa has had 1 good season and is coming back from missing over half the year with injury. I'm sorry, but I'm not counting on him for anything.

There is talent, and I don't think they need to go crazy with bringing in a righty, but I'm not as sold as others that they shouldn't at least be kicking the tires and seeing what's out there. I don't think they trust anyone outside of an on fire Lopez to go super deep into a playoff start. I think the pen is going to be leaned on relatively heavily in the post season. And if that's the plan, I'd like to see another more established arm if the cost isn't crazy.

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I think at the very least we need a lefty for the bullpen. Maybe we keep one of either Theilbar or Okert for our playoff roster but I've got little to no faith in either of them in close games.

There’s no perfect staff……a bunch of other Teams would take Okert based on his performance over the year or Thielbar based on his last 6 outings and his past experience.

Chafin or maybe Chapman are lefties that could potentially be acquired but you may need a Valium to be able to watch either of them pitch in October as well.

I don’t see any Pen moves.

Lorenzen from Texas may help them free up a 40-man spot for when Mahle & deGrom return…….he could be a hybrid to help with starting innings into mid-September and then shift him to Pen? Affordable.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

There’s no perfect staff……a bunch of other Teams would take Okert based on his performance over the year or Thielbar based on his last 6 outings and his past experience.

Chafin or maybe Chapman are lefties that could potentially be acquired but you may need a Valium to be able to watch either of them pitch in October as well.

I don’t see any Pen moves.

Lorenzen from Texas may help them free up a 40-man spot for when Mahle & deGrom return…….he could be a hybrid to help with starting innings into mid-September and then shift him to Pen? Affordable.

Tanner Scott is almost guaranteed to be dealt. What's he going to cost is the question. But he'd be the move the Twins should make if they're "going for it." 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not trading any prospects I like for a RP, certainly not a RH one. I might be talked into a lefty, but I'm not sure that matters a ton. 

I'm much more likely to do something the fans wouldn't like, frankly. Like trade Kepler for a legit catching prospect and put Wallner in right full time. 

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not trading any prospects I like for a RP, certainly not a RH one. I might be talked into a lefty, but I'm not sure that matters a ton. 

I'm much more likely to do something the fans wouldn't like, frankly. Like trade Kepler for a legit catching prospect and put Wallner in right full time. 

I’d do that too……….just don’t see Max being worth much to anyone at this point in the season. He’s not going to energize a line-up and Teams that aren’t trying to push for a title aren’t trading prospects for him if he’s going to be a free agent. I guess he may fill a hole in some contenders OF? …… can’t see any trades of that type in the A.L. so the field of possibilities are pretty limited with him.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Like trade Kepler for a legit catching prospect and put Wallner in right full time. 

Seattle - Harry Ford.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Seattle - Harry Ford.

I'm guessing that would cost Kepler and Julien, and the Twins would get another lower level prospect..... Which I'd do. Basically trading Julien for a top catcher prospect.

[NYCTK]

Mets need a RF

Mets acquire Kepler?  

Twins acquire Sean Manaea? 

Eh, I don't like it. 

[USAFChief]

Can we stop discussing Stewart like there's some guarantee he's a lock to be healthy and effective? 

And that goes double for Topa.

And by the way, the rest of the regular season counts too.

I want to catch Cleveland.  I'd say it's incredibly important to win the ALC rather than be a wild card. I want no part of a best of three, likely in NY or Baltimore, on the road. 

And as chpettit19 points out above, post season starts from this staff are likely twice through the order. We'll need 4 innings most games from the pen. Probably more, rather than less, on average. 

Upgrade the pen. They're not going to pull the cord on a starter upgrade. Whi h means there's no investment they can make above "good reliever" that'll have more impact.

[NYCTK]

Actually, Braves need a RF too

Braves acquire Kepler  

Twins acquire Drake Baldwin and AJ Minter

I don't know that I like that either, but it's fun to look. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Actually, Braves need a RF too

Braves acquire Kepler  

Twins acquire Drake Baldwin and AJ Minter

I don't know that I like that either, but it's fun to look. 

I don't think you can get BOTH those players for Kepler. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Can we stop discussing Stewart like there's some guarantee he's a lock to be healthy and effective? 

And that goes double for Topa.

And by the way, the rest of the regular season counts too.

I want to catch Cleveland.  I'd say it's incredibly important to win the ALC rather than be a wild card. I want no part of a best of three, likely in NY or Baltimore, on the road. 

And as chpettit19 points out above, post season starts from this staff are likely twice through the order. We'll need 4 innings most games from the pen. Probably more, rather than less, on average. 

Upgrade the pen. They're not going to pull the cord on a starter upgrade. Whi h means there's no investment they can make above "good reliever" that'll have more impact.

 

If you don't trust Varland and Paddack in the bullpen in the post season, I'm not sure why you'd trust some random RP,

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't think you can get BOTH those players for Kepler. 

You're probably right. Drake looks like a floor of good backup. They're also pretty weak at SS. Toss in Farmer... 

That does make the Braves better this season, but the Twins don't get enough for this year. The downgrade from Max to Wallner is greater than the improvement from Minter over the 3 headed Lefty mess they got going on now. 

But it frees up 3 mil in salary they could use to acquire elsewhere? Idk man, I'm just sitting in my office running out the clock to the weekend...

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You're probably right. Drake looks like a floor of good backup. They're also pretty weak at SS. Toss in Farmer... 

That does make the Braves better this season, but the Twins don't get enough for this year. The downgrade from Max to Wallner is greater than the improvement from Minter over the 3 headed Lefty mess they got going on now. 

But it frees up 3 mil in salary they could use to acquire elsewhere? Idk man, I'm just sitting in my office running out the clock to the weekend...

I think Wallner is better than Max, so we'll disagree there. 

But, my goal would be to get a Catching prospect for Max somehow this year. I think Rodriguez or Larnach could play LF (or Castro or Martin, though that would be a drop off from Max) with Wallner in right. I'd take that chance......but then, I tend to trust player development a lot more than some. 

[NYCTK]

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Can we stop discussing Stewart like there's some guarantee he's a lock to be healthy and effective? 

And that goes double for Topa.

And by the way, the rest of the regular season counts too.

I want to catch Cleveland.  I'd say it's incredibly important to win the ALC rather than be a wild card. I want no part of a best of three, likely in NY or Baltimore, on the road. 

And as chpettit19 points out above, post season starts from this staff are likely twice through the order. We'll need 4 innings most games from the pen. Probably more, rather than less, on average. 

Upgrade the pen. They're not going to pull the cord on a starter upgrade. Whi h means there's no investment they can make above "good reliever" that'll have more impact.

Ok, but he's going to be back soon, and there's nothing to suggest he won't be effective. Nothing more than any other reliever we could acquire from outside the organization. We don't have to pretend as though he's dead either. 

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think Wallner is better than Max, so we'll disagree there. 

But, my goal would be to get a Catching prospect for Max somehow this year. I think Rodriguez or Larnach could play LF (or Castro or Martin, though that would be a drop off from Max) with Wallner in right. I'd take that chance......but then, I tend to trust player development a lot more than some. 

That's fair, I think my concern comes in that I don't trust Larnach either. And I guess I prefer to have Kepler due to the old adage 'defense doesn't slump'.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

That's fair, I think my concern comes in that I don't trust Larnach either. And I guess I prefer to have Kepler due to the old adage 'defense doesn't slump'.

Also fair. 

[USAFChief]

13 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Ok, but he's going to be back soon, and there's nothing to suggest he won't be effective. Nothing more than any other reliever we could acquire from outside the organization. We don't have to pretend as though he's dead either. 

He might be back soon.

And he has exactly one partial season of history as a good reliever. 

[USAFChief]

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Like who? You have to pay prospect price to get RPs that you are very confident are good.....most likely meaning multiple years of being good in the bullpen. I have no interest in some RP that wasn't good before this year....too random an outcome is likely. 

If you don't trust Varland and Paddack in the bullpen in the post season, I'm not sure why you'd trust some random RP,

Well you value prospects more than me, so we'll probably never agree on this.

If I were running a baseball team, I'd value today over tomorrow over next week over next year over 3 years from now every time. "A bird in the hand..."

By a factor of 10, at least. 

Obviously there are a handful of really great prospects in the game that have value. The rest are an unpredictable crapshoot and will be replaced soon.

 

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Well you value prospects more than me, so we'll probably never agree on this.

If I were running a baseball team, I'd value today over tomorrow over next week over next year over 3 years from now every time. "A bird in the hand..."

By a factor of 10, at least. 

Obviously there are a handful of really great prospects in the game that have value. The rest are an unpredictable crapshoot and will be replaced soon.

 

sure, but you need to find a RH RP that is good, available, and has been good for more than 1 year......who? 

It's easy to say "make the team better", without saying how at all....