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Every year, roughly a dozen right-handed setup men get flipped from a team out of contention to a playoff hopeful. Teams packing it in for the year—and potentially future years—are often eager to find their reliable reliever a new home and an opportunity to throw in the playoffs, and contending teams are happy to take them in, at the cost of a low-wattage prospect or two.
This type of player, given the large supply of them and their debatable effect (a setup man does much less for a team than a star first baseman), doesn’t cost much. As an example, consider the Twins’ recent trade deadline acquisitions. Since 2019, they’ve made six trades for big-league talent, and three of those trades were for right-handed setup men.
Most recently, the Twins traded for Michael Fulmer, who gave them 24 solid innings down the stretch in 2022, sending starting pitching prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long to Detroit. Gipson-Long underwent Tommy John surgery after four solid starts for the Tigers in 2023.
In 2019, the club acquired two such relievers: Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. Romo pitched well enough down the stretch to get a second year with the Twins, and his return for the Marlins, Lewin Díaz, made the big leagues, but failed to stick as a first baseman. Likewise, the players the Giants received—Prelander Berroa, Jaylin Davis, Kai-Wei Teng—for Dyson (who, it is sometimes hard to remember, was a very good reliever at the time of the trade) have struggled to gain their footing in the majors. Still, each has had at least a cup of coffee.
As one would expect, the prospect capital expended for these three relievers was modest. But there was risk. Gipson-Long, for example, has a reasonable shot at being an MLB starter if he recovers well from elbow surgery. Even if that career hadn’t come with the Twins, his value was surrendered for two months of a player who ranked fourth or fifth in the bullpen pecking order.
At times, even a moderate risk might not be worth it. This might be one of those times.
Consider the current back end of the Twins bullpen. It’s anchored by Jhoan Durán (one of the most exciting relievers in baseball) and Griffin Jax—considered by many to be even better. Surrounding them are the likes of Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcalá, and Josh Staumont, though each comes with their own questions.
Stewart has significant injury question marks and has not pitched in two months, but he would fit into the same tier as Durán and Jax. Alcala is finally hitting his stride, but doesn’t have a long résumé. Staumont is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome and walking too many batters, but he is pumping triple-digit velocity and improving as he recovers.
That’s a decent enough collection of potential playoff arms. But there’s more. Come October, the Twins might attempt a ramp-down for some of their starting pitchers, echoing their strategy in 2023—in which Louie Varland, Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda each pitched in relief. Varland and Paddack were especially impressive, and could reprise their relief roles this year. That assumes someone takes Paddack’s spot in the rotation, of course. Beyond Paddack and Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa are each quality candidates to ramp down, focus on their best pitches, and pump up their velocity in shorter appearances for the playoffs.
It’s easy to see how a playoff bullpen—which only needs, maybe, five good righty pitchers—could fill up and render another Alcalá or Justin Topa-level pitcher redundant (humor me here, but even Topa could find his way into the picture). If the Twins spring for another righty, it needs to be someone in the Durán-Jax-Stewart territory, moving incumbents out of the picture.
Anything else probably isn’t worth the prospect risk.
From the left-handed side, however: sure. Go right ahead. Lefty relief has been a sore spot for the Twins. Caleb Thielbar has been slumping in his age-37 season, nowhere close to fulfilling his top lefty role of years past. Steven Okert has been Steven Okert, and Kody Funderburk has not taken the step forward many hoped to see this season.
There’s a world wherein any of those three is a secondary lefty on a playoff team, but there’s no reason to turn to them over one of the big three (and arguably even Alcalá), even against lefties. A lefty Alcalá-type would be perfectly reasonable, and that’s where the Twins should focus their attention—if they’re shopping in the setup man section at all.
Is it unreasonable to seek some regular season depth (for the right price)? No. Another Romo-for-Díaz swap is palatable. But it really doesn’t do much in terms of a playoff bullpen. The sights should be set higher than that.
The 2022 Jorge López trade was a mess. López failed to even be useful as a Twin, and the package sent back to Baltimore almost immediately began outperforming him. He himself was flipped to Miami in 2023 for Dylan Floro, a reliever who was designated for assignment before the playoffs began. But this kind of trade would bring value to this year’s team. It has its own heightened level of risk, but if you’re shopping for righties, they should be righties who can help in October, not just August.
Make a good trade for a lefty sixth-inning guy. Make a trade for a righty eighth- or ninth-inning guy. Trade for a starter, to facilitate that shift into a relief role for one or more of Varland, Woods Richardson, and Paddack. But don’t make a trade for a righty sixth-inning guy who won't factor into a playoff bullpen. It doesn’t move the needle, and it’s simply prospect risk you don’t need to take.
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