Where the Twins stand after (about) 60 games

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

It’s a good thing the schedule is about to get easier, since the Twins are 20-5 against teams under .500, but only 13-22 against teams over .500.

Here’s the problem though; once you get to October, there’s very few games against teams under .500.

This is a little worrisome until you remember that record was compiled without Lewis. It seems like the offense has tended to disappear against good pitching, last night being a good example. Lewis has hit against good pitching and tough competition. He may help that issue a lot.   

[LA Vikes Fan]

23 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The Twins play their 60th game tonight in New York and currently have a record of 33-26, good enough for third place in the AL Central, but currently on pace for a wild card berth in the playoffs. While the record is about what was expected at the start of the year, being in third place in the Central and trailing the leader by six games is disappointing and unexpected. The disappointment is enhanced by an 0-5 record against division-leading Cleveland, which accounts for most of their deficit in the standings. 

How did we get here? Let's look at the components. Hitting--The Twins are 12th in runs per game and have featured an inconsistent offense. When they started 7-13, the offense was historically bad, hitting well below .200 as a team and trailing all teams in runs scored. Their 12-game winning streak righted the ship statistically and moved them above average in key team stats, runs scored, OPS, homers and team batting average. Individual leaders are Ryan Jeffers, who has hit 13 homers and has a slugging percentage over .500 and Max Kepler, who came back hot from injury and has posted a .796 OPS for the season. The Twins are middle of the pack in home runs (64) after finishing tied for first in the AL in that category last year. Injuries and strict platooning have again limited individual numbers. with only two players (both switch hitters) having reached 200 plate appearances thus far. Pitching--The numbers say the pitching has taken a step back. The Twins rank 18th in team ERA and 14th in runs allowed per game. This comes despite the staff striking out hitters at the second highest rate per inning pitched and the second lowest walk rate in MLB. The long ball has been a culprit, they have allowed the fourth most home runs. Breaking it down further, the starting staff has delivered a good number of well-pitched games, but there have been more stinkers than last year and the top four all are vulnerable to long balls (44 allowed in 257 innings), The bullpen was wracked by injuries early and is still missing a couple of high-leverage arms. Their performance has been uneven, but the current group seems to have hit their stride as of late. Closer Jhoan Durán missed the first month of the season and seems to have (at least temporarily) lost some velocity. Defense--Measured by errors, this is one of the top teams in baseball. The team has been charged with only 23 errors in 59 games. We all know that is not the true measure of team defense--the team has run out some poor defenders and several with limited range. This was most in evidence when former platinum glove winners Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa were on the shelf. In general, the Twins are pretty sound defensively, but in their bad stretches, mental errors and weak throwing arms showed up at the worst times. One metric--outs above average is pretty kind to the Twins, but zone ratings send another message. Overall, I'd rate the Twins defense as decent, but not flashy (except for Correa and Buxton).

Performance factors that have come to light since Opening Day: Injuries--As noted earlier, the projected Twins' bullpen was hit by an epidemic of injury just before the season started. Four relievers were on the IL on Opening Day and two more have been added since. Three of the injured guys from the start of the season are back, so there is progress. On the position player side, Royce Lewis has missed all but a couple innings of the season so far.  He may or may not be the Twins' best player. He is certainly exciting and charismatic. Other key guys--Buxton, Correa, Kepler--have missed time, but are back. The Twins haven't had to use the IL in almost a month, a welcome respite, but after all the April injuries, it seems to have balanced out. Reinforcements--Two former top prospects (Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach), who had fallen off the roster due to injury and substandard performance, were given another chance due to injury. Both have thrived. Larnach has an .803 OPS in over 100 plate appearances, while Miranda has put together a .780 OPS and played acceptable third base in Lewis' absence. Austin Martin also got his first taste of the major leagues. His results were mixed, probably highlighted by poor defense as an outfielder, despite the tools to be better than that. The bullpen has churned through several players, with mixed results. Newcomers Josh Staumont and Diego Castillo are currently in the bullpen and so far have looked good. Jorge Alcalá looks like his best self currently.

What lies ahead? While the Twins currently sit in position to make the playoffs, winning the Central would be the preferred way to advance in postseason. With over 100 games remaining, there is plenty of time to overtake both Cleveland and Kansas City. It will take much better performance against the Guardians and continued winning baseball against the Royals. Some key numbers are the home run disparity--last year the Twins hit 39 more homers than their opponents. This year they are at -10. Another stat to check is strikeout disparity--last year the Twins set the all-time record with 1654 strikeouts, they struck out 1560 (tops in the AL) opponents for a differential of -94 Ks. This year they have fanned 504 times (12th in MLB), while opponents have whiffed 532 times, a plus differential. The team has done well in close games (11-4 in one-run games) and 1-0 in extra innings. They have had winning month in April and May and a winning record on the road (17-13). They are only seven games over .500 in part because of underwhelming veteran performance by newcomers Manuel Margot and Carlos Santana and holdovers Kyle Farmer and Christian Vázquez. The starting rotation has been healthy, but needs to be more consistent in the remainder of the season and it is likely that some current minor leaguers will make an impact on the balance of the schedule. 

For those of you to have the patience to read this long post, I hope you comment and add your own opinions. Even if you haven't read it all, make a comment on what you've seen or heard from the Twins in the first two months.

 

 

Well analyzed. I think it will be interesting to see how Lewis impacts the offense. and not just by his production. His presence may have an impact on those around him. I think we saw a little bit of it last night when the Yankees clearly wanted very little to do with him the first 2 times up and then finally pitched to him in the 7th and he homered. That's probably the last time he sees a middle in fastball this week. 

Our offensive problem has been that we have to rely on guys to hit in the middle of the order who aren't really up to the task. Kepler, Jeffers, and Miranda are all streaky and better suited to hitting 5-7 than 3-5. Buxton looks to be regressing to a low average power hitter who plays good D and hits 7 or 8. Correa is a good 2 or 6 hitter but not a middle of the order guy. Castro, Larnach and Kirilloff are 6-9 types. The vets are fill ins and any offense is gravy. What we really haven't have are consistent hitters for the 3 and 4 spots.

Lewis fills one of those spots hopefully. That should allow other guys to hit in a little lower pressure spots in the spots in the order to which they are more suited. I'm hopeful that Lewis will hit 3 going forward with Correa 2. We need one of the LH hitters to step up and be able to hit 4 - Kepler or Larnach - with the other hitting 6, Jeffers and Miranda 5 and 7, and Buxton and Kirilloff/Santana 6 and 8. I would also consider leading off Castro since he has a .330 OBP in the last 30 games, .379 in the last 15. The offense will improve with Lewis in the lineup both because he can hit and because it lets other guys hit where they should rather than being forced into higher pressure spots than they can handle.      

[Vanimal46]

Before the season began I pinned the Twins as a mid 80s win team. I haven’t had the opportunity to watch and change my opinion. 

0-12 against the top 3 AL teams (NYY, CLE, BAL) that’s not a good sign. 

I’m hoping for an exciting July - September with a healthy Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee leading the way. 

[ewen21]

Not surprisingly, Buxton goes into a tailspin about a week after the 2 home run game in Washington.  He’s obviously not working at the craft because he looks horrendous 

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Before the season began I pinned the Twins as a mid 80s win team. I haven’t had the opportunity to watch and change my opinion. 

0-12 against the top 3 AL teams (NYY, CLE, BAL) that’s not a good sign. 

I’m hoping for an exciting July - September with a healthy Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee leading the way. 

And Stewart comes back sooner, rather than later.

[Whitey333]

I think k the Twins are an above average team not a great or good team.  They must improve against teams above 500.  The season isn't young anymore.  I think we will be competitive all year buy it's also possible they won't even make the playoffs.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

I think k the Twins are an above average team not a great or good team.  They must improve against teams above 500.  The season isn't young anymore.  I think we will be competitive all year buy it's also possible they won't even make the playoffs.

Right now they are slightly better than the average teams. Not in the same category as the top 5 in the AL.  If the Twins improve even slightly, they will get a wild card spot because other teams will be beating up on each other.  We just need to focus on winning 2/3 in every series that doesn’t involve the Yankees or the Orioles.  Sweep some of the teams chasing after us and we will be just fine. 

[USAFChief]

I cannot take this team seriously. 

Oh-for-the-season, in often embarrassing fashion, against Cleveland, Baltimore and NY isn't an anomaly.

 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are winning about at the pace predicted in the forecasts coming into the season. A season total of 83-88 wins was pretty standard. While the bulk of the blame has tended to fall more to the Pohlad's decision to balance their budget, it was Falvey who made the decisions about signing players and trades. That discussion is tired but the end result is the team on the field and it seems to me that the Twins are doing just fine in consideration of their offseason. 

The next 34 games going into the July break should be a more favorable schedule for the Twins than the last month and an opportunity to improve their current position of being the Wild Card in a playoff game.

[Azviking101]

This team is just like any team in the Gardy or Molitor or early Rocco days. Probably good enough to make the playoffs but bad enough to start a new playoff losing streak. 

[stringer bell]

Thirteen games later, the Twins stand at 40-32 which projects to a 90-win season. This club is more offense-driven than the 2023 model and the peaks and valleys in their season are driven by offense or lack thereof. 

Home runs and strikeouts are down. and the Twins pitching staff continues to strike out more batters than the Twins' batters have struck out. On the flip side, the Twins' staff has yielded more homers than the Twins have hit.

The team continues to shine in close games and is 3-0 in extra inning games. 

[Fatbat]

On 6/7/2024 at 9:34 AM, Azviking101 said:

This team is just like any team in the Gardy or Molitor or early Rocco days. Probably good enough to make the playoffs but bad enough to start a new playoff losing streak. 

‘24 pitching staff is by far better than most in the last 15+ years.  Our youth movement has prime time talent and heart. If we are healthy in September, a deep playoff run is better than a 50/50 chance. Whether its 90 or 99 regular season wins, it wont really matter. 

[ewen21]

On 6/7/2024 at 9:13 AM, USAFChief said:

I cannot take this team seriously. 

Oh-for-the-season, in often embarrassing fashion, against Cleveland, Baltimore and NY isn't an anomaly.

 

What are playing for if not to win big games in October?  With the way the league built and with how many spots teams get in the postseason any team who can get hit can win it all, but why am I not buying into for THIS team?  
 

The teams above are teams we likely have to get past and thus far we’ve rolled over for them.  Patterns are sometimes hard to fathom but you’d need to be a blind homer to not acknowledge a pattern when you consider the (over) two decade history of extreme futility in the playoffs (and against the Yankees).

 

Not sure how anything about could be labeled “misinformation”