Its DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Time

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

As you probably already know, it is not.   It's really about chances and assumes everyone gets an equal number of opportunities  (and that those opportunities are also all equal).     

@bean5302 prompted me to look at their career numbers so I didn’t discount it. I appreciated his post but didn’t come to the same conclusion. It still is about the only thing we have to measure range for much of the 20th century. If I saw one CF at 3 and another at 2 over a full season that is also supported by their career numbers, I would conclude the player around 3 had more range. If that split resulted in Rodriguez and Keirsey over their minor career I could be persuaded that Rodriguez had better range. They are pretty close and probably I find it inconclusive in determining the better center fielder.

[Greglw3]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

We've had this discussion before. You've seen 10 highlight plays from Keirsey. He has 200 chances a year, and the average CF in his league turns way more of those chances into outs than Keirsey does. 

You're free to your eye test opinion based on the highlight reels, but since I don't see enough every day playing by Keirsey and I can't estimate foot speed on a TV screen, I'll trust the 1,000s of data points on how well Keirsey does vs. his peers.

The eye test is far superior to these infant stage def metrics in the 170 year history of baseball. It’s not just eye eye test either, I listen to the opinions of those I respect, like Tom, who is more than knee deep into the Twins farm system. There’s a reason why the eye test was used by scouts in baseball for 150 years before these absurdly counter intuitive def metrics came out, I just saw someone mention that Carlos Correa is below average in 3 main defensive metrics. In fact, he is a superb defensive shortstop, without peer, by my eye test and many others who have played the game.

The point is too that the average CF could never make those plays that Keirsey is making. Do you think Delmon Young would make them? How about Margot. Zero indication. Larnach, never. Andrew Benentendi? Buxton yes. Billy Hamilton Yes. Michael A Taylor Yes.

[Greglw3]

20 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Guys on the wrong side of 25 have to put up good to great numbers or their baseball careers in MLB will be over. I put the stats up last year, Keirsey wasn't a top 5 CF in AA last year and was generally 3 to 5 years older than the guys above him. For the Twins to seriously think he is a solution more than a fill in guy he has to be putting up video games numbers like Stevenson did last year and that wasn't enough for him.

But I get Twins fans have emotional hope that guys that aren't highly thought of in the minors are going to step in a do really well, when in reality that is much, much harder said than done. (I mean Keirsey has never been the prospect that Martin, Wallner, Larnach, AK, Miranda or Julien were and it hasn't been easy for any of them)

It wasn't that long ago that Chris Williams and/or Prato were going to help the Twins turn things around.

Keirsey is out hitting Wallner by a landslide. Same pitchers. Outhitting Severino by a landslide too and Prato and Hellman.

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Let's take a look at some the stats of some current AAA players who have long track records in MLB

Akil Baddoo 860 OPS in AAA, 680 OPS in MLB (all 2024)

Travis Blankenhorn 850 OPS in AAA, 560 OPS in MLB (2023)

Trayce Thompson 865 OPS in AAA, 580 OPS in MLB (2023)

Ben Gamel 960 OPS in AAA, 716 career OPS in MLB

David Dahl 980 OPS in AAA, 560 OPS in MLB (2021-23)

Jake Lamb 930 OPS in AAA, 750 OPS in MLB (career)

Jose Rojas 920 OPS in AAA, 580 OPS in MLB (career)

A 200+ point drop in OPS is common moving from AAA to MLB. Keirsey would actually be pretty lucky to have a 700 OPS in his first taste of MLB. With adjustments over time he could probably provide a 700 OPS at the peak of his brief MLB career.

seven out of how many that made the jump?  And it's interesting that you choose career stats for some, just a single year for others, and three years for another.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Alex said:

I wish they could find room to give him a shot.   He's an upgrade in LF for pretty much everyone overall, even if he hits below average simply due to defense. 

LF doesn't get that many defensive chances a game. Matt Wallner has 64 putouts and 1 assist in 333 innings in LF for his career. That's 2 defensive chances per game. You can't give away 4 at-bats to gain defensively for two opportunities a game.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

seven out of how many that made the jump?  And it's interesting that you choose career stats for some, just a single year for others, and three years for another.

I picked the first seven players I could find who are currently playing in AAA and have played in MLB. Then I took a back of the envelope projection based on their MLB stats. If you have better major league equivalencies on a broader set of data feel free to post here and I'll look over your data. The amount of the performance drop varies by year due to run scoring environment but it ALWAYS drops.

This isn't hard to understand. MLB is a LOT harder than AAA. The players are in AAA because they aren't good enough to play in MLB regularly. If players hit exactly as well in MLB as they do in AAA that would mean AAA is exactly as difficult as MLB.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

Keirsey is out hitting Wallner by a landslide. Same pitchers. Outhitting Severino by a landslide too and Prato and Hellman.

Wallner has been awful this year. That's a low bar to jump over.

[Linus]

This reminds me of the Joe Benson debate from a number of years ago. I don’t care if they give him a chance but there is zero chance he takes Margot’s place. The FO is not going get rid of the right handed bat. 

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The White Sox have Tommy Pham. He's a better RH platoon bat than Margot. Detroit has Mark Canha and he's also a better option. Are you saying the Twins can't have nice things like the White Sox and Tigers have?

Of course not.  I am saying expecting ever player on the roster in every year to be an above average MLB player, including bench players is a great goal but a bit unrealistic.  Margot should be a decent bench player but he is having a poor year.  Lots of free agents perform below expectations.  We should not expect to be immune.  See Blake Snell / Jordan Montgomery or Carlos Correa last year or Javier Baez or many other examples.  We can cut him but doing so without giving him a reasonable chance would not put this organization in a favorable light with future free agents.  There are countless example of players starting poorly and having a great 2nd half.  I think the rush to treat veteran players as disposable is impulsive and is likely to be resented by existing and would be free agents.  They are a tight group that are going to have a very bias view of what's fair and reasonable.

[Alex]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

LF doesn't get that many defensive chances a game. Matt Wallner has 64 putouts and 1 assist in 333 innings in LF for his career. That's 2 defensive chances per game. You can't give away 4 at-bats to gain defensively for two opportunities a game.

That is absolutely NOT two chances per game.    It's two chances per game converted into outs.   There are fly balls hit to the OF that are not caught that end up as singles and doubles (and less likely triples).    A player with better range can actually make a play on more of those balls and convert w.   (That's why ZR is used in the majors, but unfortunately we don't see that in the minors that I could find).

The other flaw in your logic assumes that LF has a player that is hitting and that Keirsey wouldn't.   We know that no one playing LF is hitting and that they are pretty bad defensively.   So, if Keirsey just comes up and hits the equivalent, he's going to add value.  If he actually hits, even around average, he's a significant upgrade.   LF field is currently the worst defensive position on the team by UZR.  https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/twins/stats#leaders-fielding   Wallner is actually the only one who isn't a negative.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is RF/9 a useful measure that teams use? How do the different ball in play contexts impact varying RF/9? What inning sample is necessary for RF/9 to be relevant? It is an opportunity stat so a pretty large sample must be necessary. For outfielders, would PO/9 be more telling of range?

Assuming it is valuable here are there career RF/9 in centerfield. 

Keirsey 2.46

Martin 2.49 (minors only with majors it is 2.46)

Rodriguez 2.53

 

It's the best I've got. :/

It's also why I compared Keirsey vs. his peers (who played the most innings for their respective teams) in the Texas League of AA to try and keep it as apples to apples as I could. The difference between Keirsey and his peers who saw the same hitter opponents is pretty stark. Keirsey wasn't abominable, but he was far below average. Probably a scale like: 
2.70+ excellent
2.60-2.69 good
2.50-2.59 average
2.40-2.49 poor
< 2.40 terrible

CCH(Hou) - Kenedy Corona 2.87
SPR(Stl) - Mike Antico 2.82
MID(Oak) - Denzel Clark 2.72
ARK(Sea) - Jonatan Clase 2.60
FRI(Tex) - Evan Carter 2.57
AMA(Ari) - A.J. Vukovich 2.55
WCH(Min) - Deshawn Keirsey 2.41
SAN(SDP) - Daniel Johnson 2.31
NWA(KCR) - Diego Hernandez 2.23
TUL(LAD) - Jose Ramos 2.16

[Alex]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's the best I've got. :/

It's also why I compared Keirsey vs. his peers (who played the most innings for their respective teams) in the Texas League of AA to try and keep it as apples to apples as I could. The difference between Keirsey and his peers who saw the same hitter opponents is pretty stark. Keirsey wasn't abominable, but he was far below average. Probably a scale like: 
2.70+ excellent
2.60-2.69 good
2.50-2.59 average
2.40-2.49 poor
< 2.40 terrible

CCH(Hou) - Kenedy Corona 2.87
SPR(Stl) - Mike Antico 2.82
MID(Oak) - Denzel Clark 2.72
ARK(Sea) - Jonatan Clase 2.60
FRI(Tex) - Evan Carter 2.57
AMA(Ari) - A.J. Vukovich 2.55
WCH(Min) - Deshawn Keirsey 2.41
SAN(SDP) - Daniel Johnson 2.31
NWA(KCR) - Diego Hernandez 2.23
TUL(LAD) - Jose Ramos 2.16

Sometimes the best we got just shouldn't be used because it's meaningless.    Those numbers do not indicate range.   Here's what Gleeman wrote about him:

"He’s one of the fastest players in the organization, with MLB-caliber range in center field and an average of 47 steals per 150 games in the high minors, and the left-handed bat that once held him back is now a potential asset as well."

Gleeman usually uses a combination of stats and information he gets from scouts.   I'm guessing he's leaning on the latter here because of the uselessness of the stats above.

 

Take a look at Buxton.  Even he had seasons where it was what Keirsey has (and some worse).  Keirsey had a 2.73 in CF last year.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

That is absolutely NOT two chances per game.    It's two chances per game converted into outs.   There are fly balls hit to the OF that are not caught that end up as singles and doubles (and less likely triples).    A player with better range can actually make a play on more of those balls and convert w.   (That's why ZR is used in the majors, but unfortunately we don't see that in the minors that I could find).

And the MLB leader for LF in Outs Above Average was 5 in 2023. That's 5 extra outs in 162 games. It's really easy to make up 5-10 outs on the offensive side. The Twins left fielders are not giving up an extra out every other game but putting a bad bat in LF could absolutely give up an extra out every other game.

[Alex]

43 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

And the MLB leader for LF in Outs Above Average was 5 in 2023. That's 5 extra outs in 162 games. It's really easy to make up 5-10 outs on the offensive side. The Twins left fielders are not giving up an extra out every other game but putting a bad bat in LF could absolutely give up an extra out every other game.

I'm pretty sure that's incorrect again (both stats, btw).   

Edit:  Looked at OAA Steven Kwan was 9 OAA from what I could tell, which translated to 8 runs according to statcast.   While I have used UZR, it does look like OAA is more reliable year to year.   EDIT 2:  Daulton Varshow currently leads the MLB with 5 OAA = 5 runs.   Twins have lost  2 runs based on OAA.

I'd agree that LF especially are going to usually be able to make up more runs with their bat than they might lose in defense, but the Twins LF are not hitting recently, so it's a low bar.  

 But, I'll say that implying it's likely Keirsey, or anyone, would give up a full out per game would be impossible.  Twins LF, positionally, have only reached base 56 times (38 hits and 18 walks).    A full out extra per game means he would never reach base.  That's ridiculous.  I'm not saying he for sure wouldn't be bad, but please try to keep it within the realm of reason or understand what we are talking about here.  

If he is 200 points lower than his AAA OPS, he'd be an average major league hitter with +defense.   Not great for LF but right where the Twins are for the season with better defense.   So, up to this point in a season that player might be worth  3-4 saved runs.   More if he hit better.

[JD-TWINS]

On 5/24/2024 at 12:51 PM, Cory Engelhardt said:

Maybe this sounds crazy (it may be) but I would go to Emmanuel Rodriguez first, before Keirsey. No doubt Keirsey is having a good year, but Rodriguez is also having a hot start to the season and is also already on the 40 man.

I don't love that both are left handed hitters, just for roster makeup. But that's the lean I would take right now.

 

Had to jump in somewhere - it’s Saturday, late afternoon - appears this article should have been released a bit ago as it seems to have motivated Kirilloff to WAKE UP!! Back to Back game winning dingers…….nice! Kiersey’s opportunity just got diminished for a couple, three weeks

[joefish]

The tougher the choices,  the better the team? I like to believe that. Who goes if someone comes up? It should be a difficult decision. Base it on merit, not their contract?

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

EDIT 2:  Daulton Varshow currently leads the MLB with 5 OAA = 5 runs.   Twins have lost  2 runs based on OAA.

I'd agree that LF especially are going to usually be able to make up more runs with their bat than they might lose in defense, but the Twins LF are not hitting recently, so it's a low bar.  

Yeah, I tried to look up 2023 and it was actually 2024. My mistake.

[David HK]

Absolutely concur.  He's got solid D, stings the ball, and speed and savvy to steal bases.

Swap out Margot, like yesterday.

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's the best I've got. :/

It's also why I compared Keirsey vs. his peers (who played the most innings for their respective teams) in the Texas League of AA to try and keep it as apples to apples as I could. The difference between Keirsey and his peers who saw the same hitter opponents is pretty stark. Keirsey wasn't abominable, but he was far below average. Probably a scale like: 
2.70+ excellent
2.60-2.69 good
2.50-2.59 average
2.40-2.49 poor
< 2.40 terrible

CCH(Hou) - Kenedy Corona 2.87
SPR(Stl) - Mike Antico 2.82
MID(Oak) - Denzel Clark 2.72
ARK(Sea) - Jonatan Clase 2.60
FRI(Tex) - Evan Carter 2.57
AMA(Ari) - A.J. Vukovich 2.55
WCH(Min) - Deshawn Keirsey 2.41
SAN(SDP) - Daniel Johnson 2.31
NWA(KCR) - Diego Hernandez 2.23
TUL(LAD) - Jose Ramos 2.16

He was 2.76 in his larger 2022 AA sample. It seems unlikely that his skill declined from excellent to poor at age 26. It is probably the random variation due to a sample that is small. I would trust any anecdotal evidence from those with trained eyes before trusting range factor from a full or partial minor league season sample.

[bean5302]

20 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

He was 2.76 in his larger 2022 AA sample. It seems unlikely that his skill declined from excellent to poor at age 26. It is probably the random variation due to a sample that is small. I would trust any anecdotal evidence from those with trained eyes before trusting range factor from a full or partial minor league season sample.

I'd have to look at 2022's Texas League stats for other players to compare. 809 vs. 658 is better.

2022
3.13 Michael Guldberg MID (Oak)
2.76 DeShawn Keirsey Wit (Min)
2.58 Jorge Barrosa AMA (Ari)
2.55 Nick Loftin NWA (KCR)
2.54 Esteury Ruiz SanA (SDP)
2.52 Cade Marlow ARK (Sea)
2.24 Jeren Kendall Tul (LAD)
2.21 Mike Antico STL (Stl)
2.31 JP Martinez FRI (Tex)
2.07 Wilyer Abreu Cor (Hou)

He was near the top in 2022. I'm still going to go with Keirsey's career numbers, though. I suspect he's going to be Austin Martin in the field.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, David HK said:

Absolutely concur.  He's got solid D, stings the ball, and speed and savvy to steal bases.

Swap out Margot, like yesterday.

There is zero chance he gets swapped for Margot. This FO is not going to release the right handed bat. If there is an injury or had Kiriloff continued to struggle maybe.