Is Cole Sands Heading Down the Same Path Jordan Balazovic Did in 2023?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Cole Sands was one of the Twins' best relievers in April. However, his recent stretch of appearances has left more to be desired. Is the 26-year-old right-handed hurler heading down the same path as a prior failed starter turned reliever?

Since making his MLB debut on May 1, 2022, pitcher Cole Sands has yet to find a consistent home with the Twins. In 2022, the then-24-year-old right-handed hurler started three games while netting eight relief appearances for the parent club. In his eleven appearances, Sands generated a 5.87 ERA, 4.74 FIP, and 9.8% home-run-to-fly-ball rate while striking out 28 hitters and walking 13 over 30 2/3 innings pitched and 145 total batters faced. The Florida State product left much to be desired after his rookie campaign. Despite his peripheral numbers suggesting he performed worse during his sophomore campaign in the Majors (5.52 FIP in 2023 compared to his 4.74 FIP in 2022), Sands put together a marginally impressive 2023 season, netting a 3.74 ERA and 13.8% home-run-to-fly-ball rate while striking out 21 hitters and walking 13 over 21 2/3 innings pitched and 98 total batters faced.

Sands pitched fewer innings in 2023 than in 2022 due to taking on a new role as a "break glass in case of emergency" stretch reliever who made an appearance strictly if the Twins were leading by a significant margin, losing by a significant margin, or had no other pitchers available. Inconsistency is the essence of young adulthood. Yet, with the former fifth-round pick occupying a 40-man roster spot, the club needed to decide how they would use Sands this offseason. Would he be utilized as a starter who could help an organization with newfound rotation depth concerns upon the departure of Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Sonny Gray, or as a short reliever who could provide value in short bursts? Assigning nomenclatures is one of the delights of baseball, and the Twins did just that, commissioning Sands as a "short reliever" to begin the 2024 regular season.

Sands was exceptional in his first eight outings, sporting a 0.77 ERA, 2.28 FIP, and a mere 9.1% fly-ball-to-home-run rate while striking out 16 hitters and walking only two over 11 2/3 innings pitched and 44 batters faced. During his initial wave of success, Sands relied heavily on a revamped cutter to complement his velocity-increased four-seam fastball (1.3 MPH average increase from 2023 to 2024) and auxiliary curveball and splitter. The former Cape Cod Baseball League star was excelling at his first extended opportunity as a reliever. Then, the wheels fell off. 

Since April 28, Sands has generated a 12.00 ERA, 6.81 FIP, and an uninspiring 25% home-run-to-fly-ball rate while striking out eight and walking one over six innings pitched and 31 total batters faced. Sands has been unable to consistently and effectively pound the zone as he did over his first eight appearances, and hitters have been able to manufacture more productive at-bats against the hard-throwing right-hander. Although Sands regressing resides in a small sample size, his overall catalog with the Twins (4.89 ERA over 70 innings pitched) suggests he may never find sustained success in "The Show."

Interestingly enough, Sands's fall from grace mimics what happened to fellow failed starting turned reliever pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic last season. Over his first 14 innings pitched in 2023, Balazovic manufactured a 1.29 ERA, 4.54 FIP, and 13.3% home-run-to-fly-ball rate while striking out ten hitters and walking four over 14 innings pitched and 56 total batters faced. Like Sands this season, Balazovic was eventually thrown into high-leverage situations while preserving one or two-run leads in the seventh or eighth innings. Unfortunately, Balazovic's production quickly plummeted, generating an 8.71 ERA, 8.00 FIP, and a dreadful 21.4% home-run-to-fly-ball rate over his final 10 1/3 innings pitched and 52 total batters faced before getting demoted to Triple-A St. Paul and spending the rest of the 2023 season in the Saints bullpen. 

Sands and Balazovic are functionally different pitchers. Sands's peripheral numbers and improved pitch mix this season are much more encouraging than what Balazovic strung together last season. However, they are undergoing similar timelines of success and regression in consecutive seasons. Balazovic performed exceptionally well for 14 innings before his performance plummeted, and Sands performed well for 11 2/3 innings before his success faded. Also, both pitchers' home-run-to-fly-ball rates skyrocketed north of 20% when their ERA, FIP, and other metrics plunged. This phenomenon provides a strong indication as to why both pitchers began to struggle immensely. 

If Sands remains ineffective on the mound, he could quickly lose his newfound mid-to-high-leverage reliever role to improving right-handed veteran relievers like Jay Jackson or Josh Staumont. It is too early to consider seriously demoting Sands to Triple-A St. Paul. However, with Ronny Henríquez impressing in his one appearance with the parent club earlier this season, Jorge Alcalá ever-deserving of an extended look in MLB, and Caleb Boushley providing ancillary depth, Sands could eventually find himself jumping between CHS Field and Target Field for the third consecutive season. 

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[mikelink45]

I have not been impressed by Sands. Relief pictures. Can, look good for sure periods. If they are used in the right way. That means put in when the batters have less incentive and in a sense putting themselves out. But that's not high leverage and we need the ability to do what is necessary. I have no answers. I look at theilbar and Okert. And once again think era is the wrong measure for players like this. They have let so many inherited runners in that they have done more damage than their era or even their strikeout rate would indicate. 

[Patzky]

Other than a few, the bullpen is a 'What Have You Done For Me Lately?' moonscape for the Sands, Alcalas, Balazovics and De Leons of the world.

Have option will travel. I'd like to see Boushley if someone gets sent down, and certainly Alcala deserves another look. Tonkin! 

 

[Riverbrian]

Ups - Downs,

Such is life. 

 

 

[bean5302]

Sands pitches move, Balazovic's do not. Sands has a five pitch mix so naturally Baldelli uses him as a SIRP. Funderburk has 3 pitches, so Baldelli naturally uses him as a MIRP.

Sands still owns a 3.81 FIP and 3.30 xFIP.

He's had a rough few games, but he's had good ones mixed in. Even over this terrible patch it's basically two bad starts.
7.0 innings, 9 ER, 11.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, .400 BABIP, 11.57 ERA, 6.40 FIP, 4.69 xFIP (Cole Sands 4/28-5/16)
vs. 
9.0 innings, 7 ER, 14.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, .294 BABIP, 7.00 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 2.72 xFIP (Pablo Lopez 4/23-4/28)
vs. 
6.1 innings, 9 ER, 11.37 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, .474 BABIP, 12.79 ERA, 8.17 FIP, 4.66 xFIP (Bailey Ober 3/31-4/8)

[nicksaviking]

Doesn't look much like Balazovic to me, Balazovic was never able to miss any bats and he struggled with control.

Looks more like Griffin Jax in 2023 when he looked impressive early than from April 21st through May 19th his ERA ballooned from 2.16 to 5.59.

For both pitchers the strikeouts were still there, the walks weren't an issue and the FIP says they just ran into a some tough breaks.

[Doctor Gast]

I wasn't very impressed w/ Sands last year but like what you said he improved his pitches. IMO Sands degression is the result of the Twins don't know what to do with him. This year he was impressive so they bumped him up to higher leverage. As of now he hasn't shown that he can handle that level. Keep him at long mid-leverage relief, if he has options he'd be very valuable. Balazovik hasn't shown yet that he can pitch anywhere in MLB.

[DocBauer]

For Sands' sake, and the Twins, I sure hope the early season version is for real, and he gets back, or close to, that version. I don't know that he is really as good as he looked previously, but I think he's better than he's looked lately.

I'm still confounded on how he's being used though. Alcala has a history, when healthy, of being highly productive and sometimes downright nasty when he's used as a 1 inning guy. Meanwhile, Sands, a recently transitioned starter, has suddenly become a 1 inning pitcher while they insist on using Alcala as a multi inning arm. I just don't get it.

I don't know that I'd compare Sands to Balazovic though. Balazovic wasn't striking anyone out with the Twins and seemed to be getting the job done with some smoke and mirrors. Sands lacks some consistency, but his breaking stuff is generally pretty good and he's got his velocity up. Whatever his role...I'd still be using him for multi innings...I'm just hoping he gets back on track.

[stringer bell]

Still not sold on Sands, although I've seen a lot of good pitches from him. I still think his command is suspect and he doesn't have enough stuff when pitching down in the count.

[miller761]

Forget bashing Sands. Instead focus on Rocco and his decision to continually go to Okert. Let us guess what pitch is coming. Slider, slider and how about a slider in the middle of the plate. How many MLB hitters can figure that out. Inherited runners scoring at an 80% clip. Someone tell me why he is on the major league roster other than the fact we traded for him so therefore he must stay on major league roster according to our front office. 

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Patzky said:

Other than a few, the bullpen is a 'What Have You Done For Me Lately?' moonscape for the Sands, Alcalas, Balazovics and De Leons of the world.

Have option will travel. I'd like to see Boushley if someone gets sent down, and certainly Alcala deserves another look. Tonkin! 

 

Isn’t Tonkin in another organization - back to Mets?

[JD-TWINS]

Sands isn’t a high leverage guy but with Thielbar hurt, and then somewhat spotty effectiveness, Topa not being in his role, Duran out - guys had to fill the void, & lately Stewart being down………high usage of Pen arms as there were many games to be won over 3 weeks……..all if this has pulled Sands into higher leverage situations.

Personally, I think he just needs to re-set. His walks are way down from 5.4 in ‘23 to 1.9 per 9 in ‘24. His K’s per 9 are great at 12.1. His WHIP is down from 1.52 to 1.07 per 9.0 innings. He has more arrows in his quiver than Balazovic!

Rest, for mental clarity, is often as important as it is for physical recharge. Did anyone see Jax last night after 5 days off? He looked awfully sharp/effective!! Hoping Sands time off recently is beneficial for him.

 

[old nurse]

I would hazard a guess that the management still does not have confidence in Sands’ ability.. That is the only explanation I can think of why they are sticking with Johnson and Oekert

[LambchoP]

I think Sands will be ok IF used correctly, which has not been the case. Roccos deployment of the bullpen has been baffling to me. Consistently using our closer in the 7th and 8th innings, then expecting Okert to get saves. The guy is basically a one pitch pitcher. We need Stewart back badly. Then I'd call up Alcala and put Varland out in the bullpen and let it fly.

[DaveW44]

You completely lost me at the end when you referred to “improving right-handed veteran relievers like Jay Jackson”

We must be thinking about two different Jay Jackson’s. The one I’m thinking about should be DFA’d