Is Cole Sands Heading Down the Same Path Jordan Balazovic Did in 2023?

Since making his MLB debut on May 1, 2022, pitcher Cole Sands has yet to find a consistent home with the Twins. In 2022, the then-24-year-old right-handed hurler started three games and made eight relief appearances for the parent club. In his 11 total games, Sands generated a 5.87 ERA, 4.74 FIP, and 9.8% home-runs-per-fly-ball rate, while striking out 28 hitters and walking 13 over 30 2/3 innings pitched and 145 total batters faced. The Florida State product left much to be desired after his rookie campaign.

Despite his peripheral numbers suggesting he performed worse during his sophomore campaign in the Majors (5.52 FIP), Sands put together a marginally impressive 2023 season, netting a 3.74 ERA and 13.8% homers-per-fly-ball rate, while striking out 21 hitters and walking 13 over 21 2/3 innings pitched and 98 total batters faced.

Sands pitched fewer innings in 2023 than in 2022, due to taking on a new role as a "break-glass-in-case-of-emergency" stretch reliever who made an appearance strictly if the Twins were leading by a significant margin, losing by a significant margin, or had no other pitchers available. Inconsistency is the hallmark of young adulthood. Yet, asking young men Sands's age to handle difficult, unpredictable work with poise and consistency is typical in today's game.

With the former fifth-round pick occupying a 40-man roster spot, the club needed to decide how they would use Sands this offseason. Would he be utilized as a starter who could help an organization with newfound rotation depth concerns (upon the departures of Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Sonny Gray), or as a short reliever who could provide value in one-inning bursts and occasionally step up in medium- to high-leverage situations? As things played out at the end of spring training, they chose (for the most part) the latter role for him.

Sands was exceptional in his first eight outings, sporting a 0.77 ERA, 2.28 FIP, and a mere 9.1% fly-ball-to-home-run rate while striking out 16 hitters and walking only two over 11 2/3 innings pitched and 44 batters faced. During his initial period of success, Sands relied heavily on a revamped cutter to complement his firmed-up four-seam fastball (1.3 MPH average increase from 2023 to 2024) and auxiliary curveball and splitter. The former Cape Cod Baseball League star was excelling at his first extended opportunity as a reliever. Then, the wheels fell off. 

Since April 28, Sands has generated a 12.00 ERA, 6.81 FIP, and an uninspiring 25% home-run-to-fly-ball rate, while striking out eight and walking one over six innings pitched and 31 total batters faced. Sands has been unable to consistently, effectively pound the zone, as he did over his first eight appearances, and hitters have manufactured more productive at-bats against the hard-throwing right-hander. Although Sands's regression is still a small sample size, his overall catalog with the Twins (4.89 ERA over 70 innings pitched) suggests he may never find sustained success in "The Show."

Interestingly enough, Sands's fall from grace mimics what happened to fellow failed starting turned reliever pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic last season. Over his first 14 innings pitched in 2023, Balazovic posted a 1.29 ERA, 4.54 FIP, and 13.3% home-run-to-fly-ball rate while striking out 10 hitters and walking four over 14 innings pitched and 56 total batters faced. Like Sands this season, Balazovic was eventually thrown into high-leverage situations, preserving one- or two-run leads in the seventh or eighth innings. Unfortunately, Balazovic's production quickly plummeted, generating an 8.71 ERA, 8.00 FIP, and a dreadful 21.4% home-run-to-fly-ball rate over his final 10 1/3 innings pitched and 52 total batters faced--after which he was demoted to Triple-A St. Paul. He spent the rest of the 2023 season in the Saints bullpen. 

Sands and Balazovic are very different pitchers. Sands's peripheral numbers and improved pitch mix this season are much more encouraging than Balazovic's last season. However, they are undergoing similar timelines of success and regression in consecutive seasons. Balazovic performed exceptionally well for 14 innings before his performance plummeted, and Sands performed well for 11 2/3 innings before he faltered. Also, both pitchers' home-run-to-fly-ball rates skyrocketed north of 20% when their ERA, FIP, and other metrics plunged. This phenomenon provides a strong indication as to why both pitchers began to struggle immensely. 

If Sands remains ineffective on the mound, he could quickly lose his newfound mid-to-high-leverage reliever role to improving right-handed veteran relievers like Jay Jackson or Josh Staumont. It is too early to seriously consider demoting Sands to Triple-A St. Paul. However, with Ronny Henríquez impressive in his one appearance with the parent club earlier this season, Jorge Alcalá seemingly deserving of an extended look in MLB, and Caleb Boushley providing ancillary depth, Sands could eventually find himself jumping between CHS Field and Target Field for the third consecutive season.