Emmanuel Rodríguez's Patience is a Virtue, But Only to a Point

[Jamie Cameron]

Emmanuel Rodriguez is off to a hot start at Double-A. Before he's considered for a call-up to the Minnesota Twins, though, he needs to resolve a key unfilled box on his developmental checklist.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins continued their offensive struggles with another series loss to the Tigers on Sunday. Through Apr. 21, Minnesota has scored more than four runs just three times in 20 games. Small sample or not, they have often looked ill-prepared, or been unable to muster competent execution in their plate appearances. Twins Twitter was clamoring for change shortly after the third game of Detroit's visit, with some even calling for an aggressive promotion of Emmanuel Rodriguez, who has played 14 games at Double-A through the end of the day Sunday.

Rodríguez is one of the most fascinating prospects in baseball, with an irresistible pairing of top-of-the-scale raw power and plate discipline that has catapulted him to the level of a consensus top-75 prospect. Rodríguez has also started well at Double-A Wichita as a 21-year-old, three years younger than the average for the level. Through his first 14 games, Rodríguez has put together a .289/.508/.711 line with 4 home runs, 5 doubles, a triple, and 8 stolen bases (in 9 attempts). Call him up! Get him to Target Field! Nothing can be worse than what we’ve seen so far, right?

Not so fast. Not only should the Twins stay well away from promoting Rodríguez, there’s an important tension to resolve in his overall development that needs to be addressed sooner, rather than later. 

Rodríguez has a contrasting set of traits at the plate that give him an incredible floor, but they raise some concerns and make him an incredibly difficult prospect to prognosticate. First, the good: Rodríguez has a 30.8 BB% thus far in 2024. That’s up significantly from 2023 (20.2%). That number is incredible. In 2023, Juan Soto led MLB in BB%, at 18.6%. While it’s unlikely Rodríguez maintains that (at Double-A or beyond), walking that much sets a very high floor for your value at the plate.

The orange flag that’s been raised regarding Rodríguez in his career to date is the dependency of his bat-to-ball skills. In 2023, he had a Contact% of 69.6% (nice) (except not really). Thus far in 2024, it’s 65.1%. It’s still early days, but it tracks that your contact erodes slightly as you see better and better pitching. A Contact% of 65.1% would put Rodriguez 129th out of 133 qualified MLB hitters, and that’s not accounting for the significant quality increase in stuff and strike-throwing he’ll see in MLB. Indeed, it’s about 5% lower than average at his current level. 

In Double-A, Rodríguez has been thrown strikes 47% of the time. In MLB, the current average is 64%. Those figures include swinging strikes, foul balls, and balls in play on pitches outside the zone, but still, that's a gap the league will close, at least part of the way. This helps explain the boost to his current walk rate. When he's not walking or hitting the ball hard, he's striking out. Rodríguez is already rocking a 30.8 K% through his opening salvo in Double-A. Simply put, his current passivity at the plate and contact issues would be untenable in the majors today. That’s OK: He’s incredibly young and talented, let’s give him some time to find his way and see if he can make some discernible adjustments.

What’s more interesting to me than a call-up, is the knife's edge that his development rests on moving forward. Consider some of these numbers, comparing his approach in 2023 and to date in 2024.

In 2023, the average MLB Swing% was 47.2%. His current Swing% is a full 5% lower than any qualified MLB hitter in 2023. While there are a handful of hitters in the 35-40% range (Lars Nootbaar, Juan Soto, and Mookie Betts, for example), all of these players have above-average bat-to-ball skills (Contact% over 75%). The one exception to this is Kyle Schwarber, but Schwarber's profile illustrates the incredibly thin margin for error and limiting effects of that blend between approach and skills. While Rodríguez's current approach is working beautifully in the minors (where he is not getting thrown a lot of strikes), against better pitchers, he would find himself in a lot of 0-2 counts, out-leveraged, where his deficient bat-to-ball skills will be exposed.

Therein lies the daunting question for the Twins' player-development team: when do you push Rodríguez to be more aggressive at the plate? Are we seeing incremental changes with him dialing back swings in pitchers' counts? Do you let him be successful now with a skill set that will run into a wall later? Alternatively, do you push for change now that may cause the path to be more bumpy, but which (in so doing) gives him the longest possible window to adjust to what might work at the big-league level? For that matter, do the Twins realize this problem exists? Their own organizationally prescribed approach, especially deep in counts, mirrors Rodríguez's so closely that they lead the league in being called out on strikes, with no close rival.

Notably, this brief analysis is left wanting, because I don’t have access to heat maps and other data that might give us clues to holes in his swing that contribute to some of his contact challenges.

After reading this, you might think I’m a Rodriguez doubter, I’m actually a huge believer. There’s little evidence to suggest that a promotion now would serve him or the Twins well, though. How much and when Twins player development can influence him to dial up the aggression at the plate will go a long way to governing how close he comes to realizing his considerable ceiling. Patience is a virtue, but only to a point, and that point is coming into view on Rodríguez's developmental horizon.

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[TopGunn#22]

Great article.  Good insights.  His ceiling is high, but eventually you have to hit the ball.  You are correct to have pointed out that his walk rate rate will continue to diminish the higher his level of play goes.  Pitchers that make it to the major leagues have better command.  He will certainly find himself in more 0-2 counts than he ever has before.  

When Joe Mauer used to fall behind 0-2 I was never worried.  Mauer had elite bat to ball skills that led to a HOF career.  E-Rod hits with more power and with that is a baked in higher swing and miss.  But at some point, E-Rod is going to have to start hitting that "first pitch fastball."  And he needs to be hitting some singles as well.  The kid has power, he's going to hit his homers.  He just needs to make contact more consistently.  The upside is certainly there.  And this is why the decision NOT to trade him for pitching was wise.  

[Dman]

The concerns of the OP are valid and I agree with them.  The thing is he has been one of the top 5 bats in his league since he started A ball.  It's just hard to argue with success.

The contact issues would be my biggest worry as we have already seen that exposed somewhat with Jullien and Wallner at the MLB level.  He can be more aggressive at the plate if he wants too be, but I do think it does play into the Twins philosophy of making pitchers work and developing a solid sense of the zone all while battling with two strikes and is a good skill to develop. So I am less worried about that aspect.

The numbers are nice and not nice in his profile.  He could be Schwarber.  He could be good Gallo or bad Gallo it is hard to say.  Like I said earlier the tough part right now is how do you change an approach that has been successful everywhere he played so far?

[chpettit19]

I'd consider a relatively quick push to AAA to get him some struggles if he needs it. If AA pitchers can't challenge him enough then give him better pitchers to learn against. It's really hard to judge what he needs and how much of a hinderance this could be with the info we have. Patience at the plate is a balancing act that is different for each player and their contact skills. If you don't make contact frequently you need to give yourself more chances to do it. Waiting for 2 strikes is going to lead to a lot of Ks both swinging and looking for someone like Emma. They should be working with him constantly to perfect his approach.

[DJL44]

He's swinging less often in pitcher's counts and even counts. That could mean that once pitchers get ahead on him they throw the ball in the river and he's not chasing those pitches. I agree that they may need to move him up to AAA to get at-bats against pitchers willing to challenge him.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Rodriguez is obviously an excellent prospect, but this article does a nice job of identifying what is left for him to work on (something pretty big!).  If he continues to have success, you have to move him up the ladder until he is presented with some hardship.  This will likely happen in AAA.  Then it will be up to him (and his talent).  Will he make the adjustments and make more consistent contact?  If so, he could be a star.  If he continues to be hyper-selective to his own detriment, he’s not likely to make it far in MLB.  It may seem a little harsh, but I think forcing the issue upon him (when he’s ready) is probably the only way to make this happen, because until he experiences some real difficulties, he has no obvious incentive to make changes in his approach. 

 

[saviking]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Great article.  Good insights.  His ceiling is high, but eventually you have to hit the ball.  You are correct to have pointed out that his walk rate rate will continue to diminish the higher his level of play goes.  Pitchers that make it to the major leagues have better command.  He will certainly find himself in more 0-2 counts than he ever has before.  

When Joe Mauer used to fall behind 0-2 I was never worried.  Mauer had elite bat to ball skills that led to a HOF career.  E-Rod hits with more power and with that is a baked in higher swing and miss.  But at some point, E-Rod is going to have to start hitting that "first pitch fastball."  And he needs to be hitting some singles as well.  The kid has power, he's going to hit his homers.  He just needs to make contact more consistently.  The upside is certainly there.  And this is why the decision NOT to trade him for pitching was wise.  

 

[saviking]

I think it's a great sign pitchers don't want to throw him strike. That will change when he reaches the majors. His dercerning eye will be an asset ...

[FlyingFinn]

I'm very happy with E-Rod's start in AA. I actually thought he would struggle at first. Keep him at AA until mid-season to tweak a couple things you mentioned. But do NOT do an Austin Martin on him and try to make him someone he isn't. 

[bean5302]

I don't think it's likely Rodriguez's contact skills will improve much without a big change to his swing. How much his contact rate drops as he gets promoted is debatable. Like Julien, Rodriguez takes a gazillion walks so it's just tough to say what that looks like at the MLB level. There aren't a lot of guys like him.

[tony&rodney]

Emmanuel Rodriguez is an intriguing prospect. I have seen most of his at bats this season. There have been some changes from last year and a few lingering habits. Briefly, Em-rod has tightened up his swings and been more focused in his at bats when games are already decided. I felt he gave away a ton of at bats last season. The eye for the strike zone remains superior. There are moments when we still see Emmanuel still pull off the ball with some zealous over swinging but much less than last year. When he stays clean with his approach, Rodriguez really has good swings. Focus and repeating a controlled swing path will be critical to future success.

It seems likely that the Twins would keep Em-rod in AA until early June, but I agree with chpettit19 that a promotion to AAA will be instructive for evaluating the young athlete and providing a level of competition for applying the needed adjustments that will carry him forward in his career. Rodriguez has a mature body and I doubt that he will be overmatched at the AAA level. The issues that Jamie so adroitly identifies, related to contact, can best be answered at AAA. Whether Em-Rod is emotionally ready is not so easily determined but right now he looks more dominant than any other AA player. The rigors of day to day focus and the strain of being tuned in for every at bat and pitch remain a challenge for Em-Rod but he has the eye and the swing to continue to improve.

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd consider a relatively quick push to AAA to get him some struggles if he needs it. If AA pitchers can't challenge him enough then give him better pitchers to learn against. It's really hard to judge what he needs and how much of a hinderance this could be with the info we have. Patience at the plate is a balancing act that is different for each player and their contact skills. If you don't make contact frequently you need to give yourself more chances to do it. Waiting for 2 strikes is going to lead to a lot of Ks both swinging and looking for someone like Emma. They should be working with him constantly to perfect his approach.

I'm a little hesitant about pushing to AAA too quickly.  The pitchers in AAA generally have a little better command but the walk rate has been higher over the last year+ there due to the tight ABS zone.  The zone got a little bigger this year, but I think it's still going to be a high walk league. I think ERod would be fantastic at zone judgement with an automated zone, but I'm not sure it necessarily helps his development if the goal is to be a little more aggressive at the right time, it sort of reinforces what he's already good at.

He's probably going to be pitched around somewhat in AA but I think the 47% strike rate is still a fluky early season thing.  I think the pitchers in AA are probably pretty similar to AAA in terms of stuff so I am still in favor of giving him a decent amount of time in AA to see more of the pitchers and hopefully improve his contact rate slightly just through gaining a little more familiarity with the higher level of pitching.  I think half a season at AA would still be a very aggressive path, and if he's still crushing the league then I think they have to think about continuing to push him (and maybe thinking about how quickly to push him all the way to the majors).  There probably are still some things to pick up in AAA, but I'm not sure the difference between AA and AAA will be that big of a challenge for a hitter like ERod so I'm fine with a little more time in AA.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I'm a little hesitant about pushing to AAA too quickly.  The pitchers in AAA generally have a little better command but the walk rate has been higher over the last year+ there due to the tight ABS zone.  The zone got a little bigger this year, but I think it's still going to be a high walk league. I think ERod would be fantastic at zone judgement with an automated zone, but I'm not sure it necessarily helps his development if the goal is to be a little more aggressive at the right time, it sort of reinforces what he's already good at.

He's probably going to be pitched around somewhat in AA but I think the 47% strike rate is still a fluky early season thing.  I think the pitchers in AA are probably pretty similar to AAA in terms of stuff so I am still in favor of giving him a decent amount of time in AA to see more of the pitchers and hopefully improve his contact rate slightly just through gaining a little more familiarity with the higher level of pitching.  I think half a season at AA would still be a very aggressive path, and if he's still crushing the league then I think they have to think about continuing to push him (and maybe thinking about how quickly to push him all the way to the majors).  There probably are still some things to pick up in AAA, but I'm not sure the difference between AA and AAA will be that big of a challenge for a hitter like ERod so I'm fine with a little more time in AA.

Very good point. I wouldn't categorize a half season at AA at 21 as "very aggressive" for a player of his prospect status, but also agree that a quick trigger to the majors should/could be on the table as well. I commented on another thread last week about him that I'd be more than happy with him following the Michael Harris II path. He debuted for the Braves at the age of 21 after 43 games of .878 OPS in AA. His debut came at the end of May. If Emma keeps this up (quite possible) and the Twins still need a bat in a month (quite likely) then a jump straight to the majors may be the ticket as AAA may not provide enough of a difference for him anyways.

[jkcarew]

Interesting article.

It would be interesting to compare these numbers to Julien’s at the AA level.

To me, he’s simply doing what works. And that is…he’s taking advantage of inexperienced and unpolished pitchers who are, in general, not capable (and not willing at times, I’m sure) of consistently beating him with quality pitches late in counts.

It’s hard for me to imagine how he ‘artificially’ makes adjustments in AA that he doesn’t need to make to be successful and get his team wins at that level. Most humans are only successful making adjustments…when they have to…when they can see and experience the ‘why’….which also informs the ‘how’ and ‘how much’. If this continues (high OPS with extreme walk/K rates), I think his shelf life in AA should be very short.

If you’ve watched this guy at all…he screams CONFIDENT…the body language is almost over the top at times. Sure seems like a kid who would be able to weather some failure along the way…maybe even benefit from it. The sooner, the better, IMO.