Emmanuel Rodríguez's Patience is a Virtue, But Only to a Point

Great article.  Good insights.  His ceiling is high, but eventually you have to hit the ball.  You are correct to have pointed out that his walk rate rate will continue to diminish the higher his level of play goes.  Pitchers that make it to the major leagues have better command.  He will certainly find himself in more 0-2 counts than he ever has before.  

When Joe Mauer used to fall behind 0-2 I was never worried.  Mauer had elite bat to ball skills that led to a HOF career.  E-Rod hits with more power and with that is a baked in higher swing and miss.  But at some point, E-Rod is going to have to start hitting that "first pitch fastball."  And he needs to be hitting some singles as well.  The kid has power, he's going to hit his homers.  He just needs to make contact more consistently.  The upside is certainly there.  And this is why the decision NOT to trade him for pitching was wise.  

He's swinging less often in pitcher's counts and even counts. That could mean that once pitchers get ahead on him they throw the ball in the river and he's not chasing those pitches. I agree that they may need to move him up to AAA to get at-bats against pitchers willing to challenge him.

I'm very happy with E-Rod's start in AA. I actually thought he would struggle at first. Keep him at AA until mid-season to tweak a couple things you mentioned. But do NOT do an Austin Martin on him and try to make him someone he isn't. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez is an intriguing prospect. I have seen most of his at bats this season. There have been some changes from last year and a few lingering habits. Briefly, Em-rod has tightened up his swings and been more focused in his at bats when games are already decided. I felt he gave away a ton of at bats last season. The eye for the strike zone remains superior. There are moments when we still see Emmanuel still pull off the ball with some zealous over swinging but much less than last year. When he stays clean with his approach, Rodriguez really has good swings. Focus and repeating a controlled swing path will be critical to future success.

It seems likely that the Twins would keep Em-rod in AA until early June, but I agree with chpettit19 that a promotion to AAA will be instructive for evaluating the young athlete and providing a level of competition for applying the needed adjustments that will carry him forward in his career. Rodriguez has a mature body and I doubt that he will be overmatched at the AAA level. The issues that Jamie so adroitly identifies, related to contact, can best be answered at AAA. Whether Em-Rod is emotionally ready is not so easily determined but right now he looks more dominant than any other AA player. The rigors of day to day focus and the strain of being tuned in for every at bat and pitch remain a challenge for Em-Rod but he has the eye and the swing to continue to improve.

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd consider a relatively quick push to AAA to get him some struggles if he needs it. If AA pitchers can't challenge him enough then give him better pitchers to learn against. It's really hard to judge what he needs and how much of a hinderance this could be with the info we have. Patience at the plate is a balancing act that is different for each player and their contact skills. If you don't make contact frequently you need to give yourself more chances to do it. Waiting for 2 strikes is going to lead to a lot of Ks both swinging and looking for someone like Emma. They should be working with him constantly to perfect his approach.

I'm a little hesitant about pushing to AAA too quickly.  The pitchers in AAA generally have a little better command but the walk rate has been higher over the last year+ there due to the tight ABS zone.  The zone got a little bigger this year, but I think it's still going to be a high walk league. I think ERod would be fantastic at zone judgement with an automated zone, but I'm not sure it necessarily helps his development if the goal is to be a little more aggressive at the right time, it sort of reinforces what he's already good at.

He's probably going to be pitched around somewhat in AA but I think the 47% strike rate is still a fluky early season thing.  I think the pitchers in AA are probably pretty similar to AAA in terms of stuff so I am still in favor of giving him a decent amount of time in AA to see more of the pitchers and hopefully improve his contact rate slightly just through gaining a little more familiarity with the higher level of pitching.  I think half a season at AA would still be a very aggressive path, and if he's still crushing the league then I think they have to think about continuing to push him (and maybe thinking about how quickly to push him all the way to the majors).  There probably are still some things to pick up in AAA, but I'm not sure the difference between AA and AAA will be that big of a challenge for a hitter like ERod so I'm fine with a little more time in AA.

Interesting article.

It would be interesting to compare these numbers to Julien’s at the AA level.

To me, he’s simply doing what works. And that is…he’s taking advantage of inexperienced and unpolished pitchers who are, in general, not capable (and not willing at times, I’m sure) of consistently beating him with quality pitches late in counts.

It’s hard for me to imagine how he ‘artificially’ makes adjustments in AA that he doesn’t need to make to be successful and get his team wins at that level. Most humans are only successful making adjustments…when they have to…when they can see and experience the ‘why’….which also informs the ‘how’ and ‘how much’. If this continues (high OPS with extreme walk/K rates), I think his shelf life in AA should be very short.

If you’ve watched this guy at all…he screams CONFIDENT…the body language is almost over the top at times. Sure seems like a kid who would be able to weather some failure along the way…maybe even benefit from it. The sooner, the better, IMO.