Larnach and Miranda Optioned. Balazovic Reassigned

[Hubie29]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You'd send down one of their best hitters last year due to spring stats?

I'm sorry, but you and I must be watching two different Wallners.

[USAFChief]

19 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

I'm sorry, but you and I must be watching two different Wallners.

It was only 254 PAs, but yes, Wallner was one of the Twins best hitters last year. 

.249/.370/.507.

877 OPS, 139 OPS+.

Only Lewis beat that, and in even fewer PAs.

 

[Hubie29]

49 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

It was only 254 PAs, but yes, Wallner was one of the Twins best hitters last year. 

.249/.370/.507.

877 OPS, 139 OPS+.

Only Lewis beat that, and in even fewer PAs.

 

You make a good point, however Wallner is still a borderline MLB talent. He is definitely not exempt from finding himself in the minors. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

I know they've been stretching him out....but i would not be surprised if Varland starts in the bullpen either closing or being the set-up guy due to Duran's injury.

[lecroy24fan]

On 3/19/2024 at 5:52 PM, cheeseheadgophfan said:

I know they've been stretching him out....but i would not be surprised if Varland starts in the bullpen either closing or being the set-up guy due to Duran's injury.

They don't have anyone ready to be the 5th starter so no way Varland's in the pen. 

[Riverbrian]

On 3/19/2024 at 4:29 PM, Hubie29 said:

You make a good point, however Wallner is still a borderline MLB talent. He is definitely not exempt from finding himself in the minors. 

Definitely not exempt.. no question about it...  He has two options remaining.

If Wallner has a down year... for example... let's say that he performs at the plate like Carlos Correa did last year.

He would go down for that type of performance. 

While Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Gallo were taking us out of playoff contention without threat of AAA. Wallner, Lewis, Julien saved our season last year... the young position players prevented us from wasting one of our best team pitching performances in decades. 

Credit where credit is due.

 

[Cris E]

Walner is hardly an established big leaguer and the chances for him to backslide are very real.  There was a lot of junk hidden in his 2023 line that should provide him things to work on.

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
vs RHP	68		208	171	39	48	10	1	12	38	2	1	25	65	.281	.409	.561	.970	96	1	12	0	0	1	3	.383	121	164
vs LHP	27		46	42	3	5	1	0	2	3	0	0	3	15	.119	.196	.286	.481	12	0	1	0	0	0	0	.120	9	29

1. He can't hit lefties. That's a .481 OPS against lefties, and that was inflated by a HBP.  That's a platoon player until he proves he can hit same side.

2. His eye wasn't that good. Call it SSS, but if you pull his 13 HBP from last season his OBP drops to .336 overall. 

3. @LA VIkes Fanhit it squarely on the last page: "....he hit .208 in August, .209 in July, rebounded in September (always a tough projection month given the number of ABs against bad teams' AAA pitching), and went 0-8 in the playoffs with 5 SOs. He's 2-35 in ST. "       That .925 September OPS was hugely inflated by a four game series in Chicago where he went 7-13. If you remove those games (I know...) that great month dropped to .859. 

These are all very thin slices to be basing serious criticism on, but that's exactly why they can't be counted on for positive conclusions either. He had a nice first year but now he's got to show that he can adjust to what the league is throwing at him. So far he's streaky, gets hit by a lot of pitches and destroys what he reaches. That's a great foundation to build on, but the history of baseball is littered with the names of quick starts that couldn't adjust.  Good luck Matt, we're all pulling for you.

[Mike Sixel]

Wallner was the second best LFer in the game last year by war..... He didn't play half the games, and if you double his war he was literally the second best LFer in all of baseball.

This idea he wasn't all that good last year is clearly not true at all.

As for this year? Sure, he could absolutely struggle and go down, just like Hunter and others have. No doubt. 

[stringer bell]

28 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Walner is hardly an established big leaguer and the chances for him to backslide are very real.  There was a lot of junk hidden in his 2023 line that should provide him things to work on.

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
vs RHP	68		208	171	39	48	10	1	12	38	2	1	25	65	.281	.409	.561	.970	96	1	12	0	0	1	3	.383	121	164
vs LHP	27		46	42	3	5	1	0	2	3	0	0	3	15	.119	.196	.286	.481	12	0	1	0	0	0	0	.120	9	29

1. He can't hit lefties. That's a .481 OPS against lefties, and that was inflated by a HBP.  That's a platoon player until he proves he can hit same side.

2. His eye wasn't that good. Call it SSS, but if you pull his 13 HBP from last season his OBP drops to .336 overall. 

3. @LA VIkes Fanhit it squarely on the last page: "....he hit .208 in August, .209 in July, rebounded in September (always a tough projection month given the number of ABs against bad teams' AAA pitching), and went 0-8 in the playoffs with 5 SOs. He's 2-35 in ST. "       That .925 September OPS was hugely inflated by a four game series in Chicago where he went 7-13. If you remove those games (I know...) that great month dropped to .859. 

These are all very thin slices to be basing serious criticism on, but that's exactly why they can't be counted on for positive conclusions either. He had a nice first year but now he's got to show that he can adjust to what the league is throwing at him. So far he's streaky, gets hit by a lot of pitches and destroys what he reaches. That's a great foundation to build on, but the history of baseball is littered with the names of quick starts that couldn't adjust.  Good luck Matt, we're all pulling for you.

I think a larger sample size will tell a lot about Matt Wallner. The range of projection for him could be from AAAA player to All-Star. As noted, there’s plenty to be concerned about, but also plenty that is vey encouraging. 
 

I think it is preposterous to send Wallner down based on a lousy Spring Training, but it is not preposterous to believe he could be in the minors by May Day. 

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wallner was the second best LFer in the game last year by war..... He didn't play half the games, and if you double his war he was literally the second best LFer in all of baseball.

This idea he wasn't all that good last year is clearly not true at all.

As for this year? Sure, he could absolutely struggle and go down, just like Hunter and others have. No doubt. 

What if that doubling of games would've lead to him cratering and actually losing WAR? You know you can't just double WAR like that and claim he would've been the 2nd best LFer in baseball if he'd played a full year. Claiming he was the 2nd best LFer in baseball this way is just as bad as claiming he wasn't that good last year.

He was very good in a small sample size. Now the real test begins.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What if that doubling of games would've lead to him cratering and actually losing WAR? You know you can't just double WAR like that and claim he would've been the 2nd best LFer in baseball if he'd played a full year. Claiming he was the 2nd best LFer in baseball this way is just as bad as claiming he wasn't that good last year.

He was very good in a small sample size. Now the real test begins.

All we can go on is what happened, and people are literally typing he wasn't all that good last. I clearly said he might not be going forward, all I said was that on a per game basis, he was great last year. Nothing more or less.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

All we can go on is what happened, and people are literally typing he wasn't all that good last. I clearly said he might not be going forward, all I said was that on a per game basis, he was great last year. Nothing more or less.

You claimed that he was the 2nd best LFer in the game. I agree that it doesn't make sense that people are claiming he wasn't good last year, but claiming he was "literally the second best LFer in all of baseball" by just doubling his WAR isn't any better of a take.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

1. He can't hit lefties. That's a .481 OPS against lefties, and that was inflated by a HBP.  That's a platoon player until he proves he can hit same side.

Can't prove it unless he is allowed to. 

Get the branding iron out after 42 scattered AB's. 

Apply that thing to his career. 

The end result... Sharp pain on the backside of his career. 

Ouch!!! 

[Mike Sixel]

36 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You claimed that he was the 2nd best LFer in the game. I agree that it doesn't make sense that people are claiming he wasn't good last year, but claiming he was "literally the second best LFer in all of baseball" by just doubling his WAR isn't any better of a take.

I'm not sure how to judge him, other than how he actually played. 

[Cris E]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Can't prove it unless he is allowed to. 

Get the branding iron out after 42 scattered AB's. 

Apply that thing to his career. 

The end result... Sharp pain on the backside of his career. 

Ouch!!! 

I'm not the one advocating for him to go down, I'm simply pointing out that he's hardly the second best LF in baseball.

He's got stuff to prove and he's not a sure thing until he proves he belongs.  Miranda was a sure thing too, if you recall, and before you point out injury vs talent I'll point out the real issue is known vs unknown. It may be that Miranda just got hurt or he's  another Kirilloff, and similarly we have to see if Wallner is Tom Brunansky or he perhaps devolves into a platoon player. Right now he's probably earned a shot at showing his value at the MLB level, similar to Miranda last year.  But if he struggles he won't get anything like the amount of rope Kepler got last year. It's early for him. 

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, Cris E said:

I'm not the one advocating for him to go down, I'm simply pointing out that he's hardly the second best LF in baseball.

He's got stuff to prove and he's not a sure thing until he proves he belongs.  Miranda was a sure thing too, if you recall, and before you point out injury vs talent I'll point out the real issue is known vs unknown. It may be that Miranda just got hurt or he's  another Kirilloff, and similarly we have to see if Wallner is Tom Brunansky or he perhaps devolves into a platoon player. Right now he's probably earned a shot at showing his value at the MLB level, similar to Miranda last year.  But if he struggles he won't get anything like the amount of rope Kepler got last year. It's early for him. 

I wasn't going to point out injury vs. talent. 

I think the point that Mike was making was that his numbers in a small sample size equated to 2nd best LF in baseball. 

I don't think Mike believes that he is the 2nd best LF in baseball. I think Mike was making a statement that his numbers were good in him limited opportunity. I've read enough of Mike's post to believe that he understands sample size. 

That's what I think Mike was thinking... Mike is capable of explaining his intent better than I though.

Myself personally.

He earned a roster spot this year and there are players behind him that want his job. If he stumbles... Larnach, Miranda, Lee and others are waiting for the call. As long as he as options that can be exercised his presence in the big leagues will depend on him continuing to earn his job... so I think we agree there. 

However... as far his ability against left handed pitching... which is what I quoted. That's a sore spot with me. It's a self fulfilling prophecy for the Twins organization. Taking young developing players like Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff and hiding them from lefties will typecast them for their future. 

Gilligan was turned down for roles like the Sundance Kid and Vito Corleone because the producers and fan base could only see him as little buddy.  

[chpettit19]

45 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure how to judge him, other than how he actually played. 

Doubling his WAR isn't how he actually played. It's adding extra production that he didn't have. That's not how WAR works, and I'm quite positive you know that. Use his batting stats like everyone else. Use his wRC+ or his OPS+. Don't double a counting stat that way to claim he was the 2nd best LFer in all of baseball.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

  But if he struggles he won't get anything like the amount of rope Kepler got last year. It's early for him. 

Last year if you double Wallner's .  he had 15 PA more than Kepler had;   Kepler had 106 Ks, so if you Double the number Wallner had it would be 160 Ks.

Wallner is heading full blast to Gallo Territory, without the fielding skills; 2nd best, bollocks , his ST is just a continuing of his Post Season numbers.

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Doubling his WAR isn't how he actually played. It's adding extra production that he didn't have. That's not how WAR works, and I'm quite positive you know that. Use his batting stats like everyone else. Use his wRC+ or his OPS+. Don't double a counting stat that way to claim he was the 2nd best LFer in all of baseball.

He played less than half the games....if he played the same all year, why would I not double his counting stats? I mean, his D and baserunning matter too.....

In any event, I was wrong, he was 5th or 6th. 

By wrc+ he was 2nd overall, among LFers, btw.....

[Doctor Gast]

IMO Larnach, Miranda & Martin would be better served not being sent down & having that extra time in the MLB camp. Especially Martin being mentored by Buxton. Instead of hanging around a MiLB practice field. There are so many scrubs below Larnach, Miranda & Martin that have no chance in making the club this year yet is still with the club 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Larnach, Miranda & Martin would be better served not being sent down & having that extra time in the MLB camp. Especially Martin being mentored by Buxton. Instead of hanging around a MiLB practice field. There are so many scrubs below Larnach, Miranda & Martin that have no chance in making the club this year yet is still with the club 

Ya, I don't get it either. I don't understand how it all works, though, so maybe there is a reason? I don't know what that would be......

[Mike Sixel]

39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He played less than half the games....if he played the same all year, why would I not double his counting stats? I mean, his D and baserunning matter too.....

In any event, I was wrong, he was 5th or 6th. 

By wrc+ he was 2nd overall, among LFers, btw.....

I hope I've been clear, I don't have any expectations he'll hit like that this year.....I'm guessing he's 8th-13th among LFers in fWAR this year....but I won't be utterly shocked if he goes down for a few weeks (or more) either. 

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Last year if you double Wallner's  had he had 15 PA more than Kepler had;   Kepler had 106 Ks, so if you Double the number Wallner had it would be 160 Ks.

Wallner is heading full blast to Gallo Territory, without the fielding skills; 2nd best, bollocks , his ST is just a continuing of his Post Season numbers.

Well that's silly. Gallo is in his 30s and Wallner has only had a few hundred MLB at bats. He's young and the league is adjusting to him so he's got to make a countermove now. So far this spring it hasn't happened, but he's got some time. His future lies somewhere between your doom and gloom and @Riverbrian letting him go until whenever. I'm in the middle: he's earned a chance to keep the job, but it's clear he's got some improvements to make.

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

He earned a roster spot this year and there are players behind him that want his job. If he stumbles... Larnach, Miranda, Lee and others are waiting for the call. As long as he as options that can be exercised his presence in the big leagues will depend on him continuing to earn his job... so I think we agree there. 

However... as far his ability against left handed pitching... which is what I quoted. That's a sore spot with me. It's a self fulfilling prophecy for the Twins organization. Taking young developing players like Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff and hiding them from lefties will typecast them for their future. 

Gilligan was turned down for roles like the Sundance Kid and Vito Corleone because the producers and fan base could only see him as little buddy.  

How many ABs at .447 (Julien ) or .481 (Wallner) will make you happy with the opportunities they receive?  Both will be starting the season in MN and probably seeing more chances against lefties this year, but when do you think it's enough?  Serious question, because late in games you know that the league already knows how to handle these guys. They are both young, they are both smart and hard-working, but they both have a serious problem that they need to solve. If they end up two years from now with 400 AB against lefties and show an OPS around .600 (.180,/.250/.350) you going to call that a win or a platoon?

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Cris E said:

How many ABs at .447 (Julien ) or .481 (Wallner) will make you happy with the opportunities they receive?  Both will be starting the season in MN and probably seeing more chances against lefties this year, but when do you think it's enough?  Serious question, because late in games you know that the league already knows how to handle these guys. They are both young, they are both smart and hard-working, but they both have a serious problem that they need to solve. If they end up two years from now with 400 AB against lefties and show an OPS around .600 (.180,/.250/.350) you going to call that a win or a platoon?

IF, IF, IF....

Ely De La Cruz came out of Spring Training last year looking like the next Ted Williams, well he cooled down a lot but to still very respectable numbers for a rookie.

His Spring Training this year:

His fielding still stinks but those numbers show he will be be a star some day, avoiding injuries.

Wold apart from Wallners 50 percent strike out rate.

AAA is where wannabes learn, not the Majors regular season.

[FlyingFinn]

8 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Both will be starting the season in MN and probably seeing more chances against lefties this year, but when do you think it's enough? 

The trouble is that the Twins seem to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy at times. The young lh hitters come up, face a lefty and go 0-4. They don't face another lh for a week and get another shot, maybe going 0-4 again. Other players are facing them much more often, at least out of the bullpen. I think some of us would like to give them more of a chance against lh pitchers as they need to adjust to MLB lh pitching. There's always a balance if a player doesn't perform but the Twins too quickly self-label guys as unable to hit same handed pitchers IMO. This is especially true if they were able to hit lh pitching in the minors.

[stringer bell]

18 minutes ago, RpR said:

IF, IF, IF....

Ely De La Cruz came out of Spring Training last year looking like the next Ted Williams, well he cooled down a lot but to still very respectable numbers for a rookie.

His Spring Training this year:

His fielding still stinks but those numbers show he will be be a star some day, avoiding injuries.

Wold apart from Wallners 50 percent strike out rate.

AAA is where wannabes learn, not the Majors regular season.

De La Cruz isn't going to be a superstar because of his line in Spring Training this year. And Wallner isn't a bust because of his results this spring. De La Cruz has superstar tools including speed and bat speed that make him a good bet and Wallner has less tools, but plus plus power. 

[Cris E]

26 minutes ago, RpR said:

IF, IF, IF....

Ely De La Cruz came out of Spring Training last year looking like the next Ted Williams, well he cooled down a lot but to still very respectable numbers for a rookie.

His Spring Training this year:

His fielding still stinks but those numbers show he will be be a star some day, avoiding injuries.

Wold apart from Wallners 50 percent strike out rate.

AAA is where wannabes learn, not the Majors regular season.

I asked what is a reasonable threshold to prove someone can hit lefties or not. You seem to think 42 is adequate and others think you need more. I think he should get until may and then we can see if it's just terrible or getting better. Maybe AAA is the right place to work on it or most likely he's slugging the heck out of right handed pitching and they just pinch hit for him situationally.

Also, 17 strikeouts in 46 PA is still over a third, and he wasn't that great last spring..  EDLC is another one with a lot to prove this year. He hit only .495 against lefties in 122 PAs and he wasn't that good after his first month, so they're going to want to see more than 5 extra base hits to leave him at SS once McLain returns.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Larnach, Miranda & Martin would be better served not being sent down & having that extra time in the MLB camp. Especially Martin being mentored by Buxton. Instead of hanging around a MiLB practice field. There are so many scrubs below Larnach, Miranda & Martin that have no chance in making the club this year yet is still with the club 

Once the club determines a guy on the 40-man won't make the club, they send them down because they don't want them to get injured and then get major league service time while on the IL. If Lee were on the 40-man, he might now have ended up on the IL with his minor injury and his major league service time clock would start. The other issue is giving pitchers innings to stretch out and hitters more at-bats. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

How many ABs at .447 (Julien ) or .481 (Wallner) will make you happy with the opportunities they receive?  Both will be starting the season in MN and probably seeing more chances against lefties this year, but when do you think it's enough?  Serious question, because late in games you know that the league already knows how to handle these guys. They are both young, they are both smart and hard-working, but they both have a serious problem that they need to solve. If they end up two years from now with 400 AB against lefties and show an OPS around .600 (.180,/.250/.350) you going to call that a win or a platoon?

I don't have a number. It would be ridiculous for me to quote a number. It's about what they are now doesn't have to be what they are going to be in the future unless you place them in cement shoes. I have a real problem with taking a young player and strip mining them for parts. 

Jeffers had a .540 OPS against Right Handers... 150 AB's in 2022. If you are going to use Wallner's small sample against him... it's only fair to use Jeffer's 2022 against him. 

He had an OPS of .828 OPS against righties...218 AB in 2023. Jeffers was allowed to show what he could do. 

Jeffers wasn't typecast. 

I am absolutely fine with them being pinch hit for in the 8th or 9th with the game on the line. That makes sense... I am absolutely not fine with them being yanked in the 2nd inning when a left hander enters the game with plenty of game to go. 

I'm Ok with a platoon... but, the occasional start against a left hander isn't too much to ask so they can group some AB's against them and develop. 

Can we use the early part of the season to determine what players can actually do and then answer what do we actually need at the trade deadline with actionable intel and determine what do we have to actually work with come playoff time. 

Wallner had real good numbers being shielded against lefties. It's hard to argue against it. But... what Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff are going to be is being pre-determined by their supervisors.