Twins wanted Bryce Miller from Seattle

[Cory Engelhardt]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/al-central-notes-twins-miller-valera-carpenter.html

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The Twins received close to Miller value with the pieces they got.  There could be potential upside on Desclafani, Gonzalez and Bowen. Topa is more than fairly valued in the trade simulator in my opinion.  For the Twins to get Miller they would have had to give up more than just Polanco.  However I am fine with the Twins aiming high.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The Twins received close to Miller value with the pieces they got.  There could be potential upside on Desclafani, Gonzalez and Bowen. Topa is more than fairly valued in the trade simulator in my opinion.  For the Twins to get Miller they would have had to give up more than just Polanco.  However I am fine with the Twins aiming high.  

Also gives a point for the type of pitcher they were wanting, which is interesting too.

[harmony55]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The Twins received close to Miller value with the pieces they got.  There could be potential upside on Desclafani, Gonzalez and Bowen. Topa is more than fairly valued in the trade simulator in my opinion.  For the Twins to get Miller they would have had to give up more than just Polanco.  However I am fine with the Twins aiming high.  

The Mariners may have aimed high for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler but, unwilling to surrender Bryce Miller, settled for Polanco alone.

The consummated trade could help both teams.

[tony&rodney]

Two things we know from specific conversations. 1. The Mariners really wanted Polanco. 2. The Twins wanted to reduce payroll and saw Polanco as covered (mol) in their system.

What we don't know. How long was Dipoto willing to go before giving in? Did Falvey have a deadline? Poker?

It is spilled milk / water over the dam. 

[nicksaviking]

56 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The Twins received close to Miller value with the pieces they got.  There could be potential upside on Desclafani, Gonzalez and Bowen. Topa is more than fairly valued in the trade simulator in my opinion.  For the Twins to get Miller they would have had to give up more than just Polanco.  However I am fine with the Twins aiming high.  

I wanted quality over quantity though.

This was from the piece that MLBTR linked:

Jerry Dipoto, president of baseball operations, said early in the offseason that the Mariners weren’t inclined to trade either Miller or Woo, and industry sources said the Mariners put a high valuation on their two young starters in talks with other teams. No one came particularly close to matching the asking price.

Meaning one of them could have been obtained, but the Twins didn't offer enough. So maybe the prior reports of the Mariners asking the Twins for Kepler would have gotten it done.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/as-trade-rumors-swirled-julio-rodriguez-urged-mariners-to-keep-bryce-miller-and-bryan-woo/

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I wanted quality over quantity though.

This was from the piece that MLBTR linked:

Jerry Dipoto, president of baseball operations, said early in the offseason that the Mariners weren’t inclined to trade either Miller or Woo, and industry sources said the Mariners put a high valuation on their two young starters in talks with other teams. No one came particularly close to matching the asking price.

Meaning one of them could have been obtained, but the Twins didn't offer enough. So maybe the prior reports of the Mariners asking the Twins for Kepler would have gotten it done.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/as-trade-rumors-swirled-julio-rodriguez-urged-mariners-to-keep-bryce-miller-and-bryan-woo/

Everything I read was they had no intention of trading either unless a severe overpay and they could use it to help this years team.  Their strength is SP,  they wanted to keep that up, and fill in their lineup through other maneuvers.  

[nicksaviking]

25 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Everything I read was they had no intention of trading either unless a severe overpay and they could use it to help this years team.  Their strength is SP,  they wanted to keep that up, and fill in their lineup through other maneuvers.  

Perhaps, but it wasn't a flat out "No" though according this Mariner reporter, and 'high valuation' doesn't necessarily mean it would have been an over pay. Polanco, Kepler and one of the top four prospects is probably an overpay. Polanco and Kepler? Or those two and even adding in another prospect? Plenty would still see that as an overpay, but I'd have been interested.

Miller was the pitcher of theirs I wanted the least, but sounds like he was at least higher than Woo from the Twins perspective. And Miller is adding a splitter this winter, which sounds like something the Twins would have had him do too.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Perhaps, but it wasn't a flat out "No" though according this Mariner reporter, and 'high valuation' doesn't necessarily mean it would have been an over pay. Polanco, Kepler and one of the top four prospects is probably an overpay. Polanco and Kepler? Or those two and even adding in another prospect? Plenty would still see that as an overpay, but I'd have been interested.

Miller was the pitcher of theirs I wanted the least, but sounds like he was at least higher than Woo from the Twins perspective. 

Ive been following mariners podcast since the trade.  They have stated effectively,  nothing was off the table, but they did not want to trade their starting 5.    They have loved their offseason with constraints that were very similar to the Twins. 

[Linus]

I’m sure they would have traded him for Julien plus filler. Payroll dictated that Polanco was the one to be traded. So they may have got value for Polanco but they didn’t get what they really needed. So this payroll BS has affected this season in many ways that aren’t obvious. 

[Fatbat]

Is anybody really off the table when it comes to Dipoto? I’m sure in a more normal offseason, we could have bought miller or woo

[tony&rodney]

We can all agree that it wasn't clear what Seattle would do if the negotiations went into March. We do know they had a strong feeling for the veteran player, Jorge Polanco, who was the main target of their offseason. Dipoto intended to push every button to acquire him. 

While also not clear, it seemed apparent that the Twins faced a self-imposed deadline for shedding Polanco's contract. 

Water over the dam - it is done. As others have already said, the trade could be decent if the two minor league players ever contribute at the MLB level. It is an example of how money impacted this year.

[terrydactyls]

On 2/25/2024 at 12:21 AM, Linus said:

I’m sure they would have traded him for Julien plus filler. Payroll dictated that Polanco was the one to be traded. So they may have got value for Polanco but they didn’t get what they really needed. So this payroll BS has affected this season in many ways that aren’t obvious. 

You're sure?  Based on what known facts?

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 

While also not clear, it seemed apparent that the Twins faced a self-imposed deadline for shedding Polanco's contract. 

Probably had to be done prior to spring training. Trading a franchise staple a few weeks after the band got back together when everyone had warm fuzzy thoughts about the upcoming season is probably a bit of a clubhouse soul sucker.

In that regard, the Mariners had the upper hand.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

You're sure?  Based on what known facts?

No not sure. Wrong words. Let me rephrase. The concept I liked better was trading Julien plus prospects to get a playoff caliber starter. That was never in play because Polanco had to be moved as a salary dump. 

[Jocko87]

I've seen this report quite a few times but the missing piece is always what Seattle demanded that the Twins wouldn't give up.  I like that they run a tight ship with leaks but I'm also very curious.

[jkcarew]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

No not sure. Wrong words. Let me rephrase. The concept I liked better was trading Julien plus prospects to get a playoff caliber starter. That was never in play because Polanco had to be moved as a salary dump. 

Why not Polanco and prospects for the quality starter? There are reasons beyond salary to keep Julien vs Polanco.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Why not Polanco and prospects for the quality starter? There are reasons beyond salary to keep Julien vs Polanco.

I’m sure that’s what they wanted to do but couldn’t find any takers. That’s why they ended up with the deal they did. Ok deal but didn’t address their highest need. As soon as the payroll budget was decided Polanco was gone.  

[harmony55]

On 3/2/2024 at 6:19 AM, tony&rodney said:

We can all agree that it wasn't clear what Seattle would do if the negotiations went into March. We do know they had a strong feeling for the veteran player, Jorge Polanco, who was the main target of their offseason. Dipoto intended to push every button to acquire him. 

While also not clear, it seemed apparent that the Twins faced a self-imposed deadline for shedding Polanco's contract. 

Water over the dam - it is done. As others have already said, the trade could be decent if the two minor league players ever contribute at the MLB level. It is an example of how money impacted this year.

Another speculative scenario:

Seattle certainly would have preferred to trade only Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Darren Bowen and cash for Jorge Polanco.

The Twins likely held out for the inclusion of Gabriel Gonzalez and the Mariners eventually caved.

[ashbury]

On 3/5/2024 at 6:54 AM, harmony55 said:

Another speculative scenario:

Seattle certainly would have preferred to trade only Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Darren Bowen and cash for Jorge Polanco.

The Twins likely held out for the inclusion of Gabriel Gonzalez and the Mariners eventually caved.

Polanco to his wife, six weeks ago: "Man, I wish SOMEBODY would hurry up and blink."

[nicksaviking]

Man, the Mariners pen has taken a beating. I think they've lost three guys since this trade. That'll teach them to deal Topa instead of Miller.

When the Twins offer Topa back to the Mariners, do they settler for Miller? Or do they ask for Julio Rodriguez too?

[harmony55]

17 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Man, the Mariners pen has taken a beating. I think they've lost three guys since this trade. That'll teach them to deal Topa instead of Miller.

When the Twins offer Topa back to the Mariners, do they settler for Miller? Or do they ask for Julio Rodriguez too?

Seattle is already developing the next Justin Topa, a 33-year-old journeyman the Mariners traded high on. Righthander Tyson Miller may top the candidates from the organization's deep bullpen depth.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners

 

[chpettit19]

18 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Man, the Mariners pen has taken a beating. I think they've lost three guys since this trade. That'll teach them to deal Topa instead of Miller.

When the Twins offer Topa back to the Mariners, do they settler for Miller? Or do they ask for Julio Rodriguez too?

No deal unless it's Miller, Rodriguez, and the Mariners pay down half of JRod's contract.

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 3/2/2024 at 1:19 PM, jkcarew said:

Why not Polanco and prospects for the quality starter? There are reasons beyond salary to keep Julien vs Polanco.

Because Polanco isn't worth a quality starter unless you include high end prospects like Lee, JRod, Festa, or guys like that.  Same for Kepler. Aging guys who can hit well and field some (Polanco) or field well and hit some (Kepler) aren't worth a #2, #3, or even a young #4 starter. They're worth what we got - a quality reliever, an older back-end starter and prospects. The Twins weren't willing to trade their good young prospects so they couldn't trade for a good young starter. We'll see if that changes at the trade deadline.