Will Pablo López Remain the AL Central's Best Starting Pitcher in 2024?

[Cody Schoenmann]

A pair of up-and-coming star intradivisional pitchers could jeopardize Pablo López's spot as the best starting pitcher in the AL Central.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Last October, starting pitcher Pablo López was at the center of two of the most meaningful moments in Twins' history. In his first postseason start with the Twins, López helped end the organization's 18-game playoff losing streak, giving up one earned run while striking out three Toronto Blue Jays hitters over 5 2/3 innings pitched. Five days later, the 27-year-old native of Venezuela took the mound in Houston, tossing seven shutout innings against the daunting Astros, guiding the Twins to a series tie with the then-defending World Series champions. López's stellar performances earned him folk hero status among Twins faithful, while earning him the title of "best Twins starting pitcher since Johan Santana" for the upcoming season.

Fast forward three months, and Twins fans are just as enamored of the right-handed hurler. Typically, when a player is idolized within a fan base, that same sense of admiration isn't matched nationally. However, López has been treated with the same level of respect from the game's most prestigious writers and projection models. Here is how López is ranked around the league:

• Eno Sarris' Stuff+ Powered Projections: 12th
• Nick Pollack's Top 200 Pitchers for 2024: 6th
• FanGraphs's 2024 ZiPS Projections: 10th
• FanGraphs's STEAMER Projections: 7th
• Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA Projections: 11th

Sarris' and Pollack's projections are fantasy baseball-specific, but the point remains. Although there is plenty of reason to be drawn toward López as a person and the intangibles he provides as an ace-level starting pitcher, the driving force behind the optimism surrounding the former Marlin is his 2023 numbers. Over 194 innings pitched in 32 starts, López fashioned the highest strikeout rate of his career (29.2%) while increasing the velocity on his fastball (which had the most ride in his career), adding a sweeper that quickly became one of the best in baseball and strengthening his already formidable changeup, becoming the best starting pitcher in the AL Central.

López deserves the praise he has received this offseason, and while there is reason to believe he will become the first Twins pitcher to win the AL Cy Young Award since Santana in 2006, the opal of Twins' fans eyes has close company within his division. Upon first glance at fellow AL Central starting pitchers, the names that catch one's attention are Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Joe Ryan. While Bieber, McKenzie, Ryan, and (most notably) Cease deserve to be considered front-of-the-rotation starting pitchers, a pair of less-known young starting pitchers have become projection-model darlings who could challenge López's spot as the best starting pitcher in the AL Central.

Cole Ragans - Kansas City Royals
Ragans, 26, made his MLB debut with the Texas Rangers in 2022, manufacturing a 4.95 ERA, 4.91 FIP, and lackluster 15.5% strikeout rate over 40 innings and 174 total batters faced that season. Jump to 2023, and the former first-round pick was traded (alongside outfield prospect Roni Cabrera) to the Royals, in exchange for reliever Aroldis Chapman on June 30.

Upon joining the Royals starting rotation, Ragans exploded onto the scene, generating a 1.69 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and an astounding 11.6 K/9 over 53 1/3 innings and 207 batters faced. Ragans's fastball sits around 96.5 MPH (89th percentile) while consistently touching 99 MPH, but his late-season dominance came from his ability to use an assortment of five superb pitches. Here are the five offerings Ragans has, along with their usage rate:

• Fastball (40.1%)
• Changeup (23.7%)
• Cutter (13.3%)
• Curveball (12.5%)
• Slider (10.4%)

Ragans's performance dipped toward the end of September, as he stumbled to a 5.40 ERA and 4.13 FIP and saw his strikeout rate sag. In a small sample, Ragans illustrated that he could pitch at a high level, despite having a poor defense behind him. Heading into 2024 with an improved defense, Ragans projects to perform more closely to the pitcher he was his first month in Kansas City:

• Sarris' Projections: 28th 
• Pollack's Projections: 20th
• ZiPS: 125th 
• STEAMER: 37th 
• PECOTA: 26th

Ragans isn't viewed as favorably as López--rightfully so--but to be ranked as a top-30 starting pitcher by three of the most reputable projection systems after two months of sustained success is no small feat. Alongside Bieber, McKenzie, and Cease, Ragans is one of the best starting pitchers in the AL Central. If he can sustain his late-season success with an improved Royals defense and fine-tuned cutter and slider, the North Florida Christian High School product should join the ranks of López and this fellow young lefty as the best starting pitchers in the AL Central.

Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers
Skubal, 27, made his MLB debut with the Tigers in 2020, producing a 5.63 ERA, 4.48 FIP, and 10.41 K/9 over 117 2/3 IP and 477 BF. Although the former 9th-round pick's results were subpar, he demonstrated potential, evidenced by his eye-popping strikeout rate. Year over year, Skubal's numbers improved, until he truly broke out in 2022, posting a 3.52 ERA, 2.96 FIP, and slightly less impressive 9.0 K/9.

The Seattle University product's breakout continued into 2023, culminating in a 2.80 ERA, 2.00 FIP, and astonishing 11.4 K/9 over 80 1/3 IP and 310 BF returning from flexor tendon surgery that prematurely ended his 2022. Skubal demonstrated the best fastball velocity (averaging 95.8 MPH) and slider and changeup shapes of his career. He sports a vast pitch mix:

• Four-seam fastball (36%)
• Changeup (24.5%)
• Slider (20.6%)
• Sinker (12.2%)
• Knuckle Curve (6.8%)

Like Ragans, Skubal sports a five-pitch mix, with his four-seam fastball and changeup being his most effective pitches. Adding Skubal's expansive repertoire of plus pitches to his breakout performance in 2022 and dominating return from injury in 2023, the 255th pick in the 2019 draft has quickly become a prime candidate to become one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2024, and the projection models agree:

• Sarris' Projections: 16th
• Pollack's Projections: 15th
• ZiPS: 47th
• STEAMER: 8th 
• PECOTA: 6th

Beyond ZiPS (which rates Ragans and Skubal low), Skubal ranks nine spots behind López in Pollack's rankings, four spots behind in Sarris' rankings, and just one spot behind ranking in STEAMER. Interestingly, PECOTA placed Skubal five spots ahead of López. Although López is currently ranked higher by most projection models and ranking systems, don't be surprised if a hot start in 2024 propels Skubal up the ranks. As noted, Skubal is injury-prone, which lowers his ceiling, but if he can throw over 150 healthy innings (a career mark he has yet to surpass) next season, he could quickly become an under-the-radar AL Cy Young Award candidate.

Heading into the 2024 MLB season, López is perceived to be the best starting pitcher in the AL Central. Though this prestigious title is well-deserved, it's far from certain, now or looking ahead. With his 2023 co-ace now twirling for the Cardinals, López faces more of a burden than ever, and if he's not able to hold onto his primacy in this individual sense, the Twins might struggle to remain ahead of the pack in a collective one.

---

Will López remain the best starting pitcher in the AL Central in 2024? Could Ragans or Skubal could surpass him? Could Cease, Bieber, McKenzie, or Ryan surpass López? How would you rank the seven starting pitchers mentioned? Join the discussion and comment below.

View full article

[TwinsDr2021]

Not to nic pick, but wasn't Tanner Bibee better last year (at least based on WAR?)

[Joe A. Preusser]

No, he won't.  Jesus Luzardo will.  

All jokes and wish fulfillment aside, what PL does looks awfully sustainable.  There's a good chance he remains at or near the top for years.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

I have a hard time putting too much emphasis on 50 innings for Ragans. He had a good run last year, but he has to show it.

Skubal I could see. Hopefully he can have a fully healthy season.

Ill take Lopez 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

41 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not to nic pick, but wasn't Tanner Bibee better last year (at least based on WAR?)

Bibee has him in bWAR (3.6 to 3.3), but Pablo leads him substantially in fWAR (4.5 to 3.0)

IMO, fWAR does a much better job describing the talent of the pitcher vs just comparing results. 

[arby58]

Don't sleep on Bailey Ober. Lopez had slightly higher WAR (3.3 to 3.0), more innings (194 to 144 - Ober started the season at AAA), and a better strikeout rate, but Ober had better WHIP (1.067 to 1.155). They were pretty close in batters' OPS and hard hit rate (slightly better in each for Lopez). I believe they will be a very effective 1-2 punch for the Twins this year.

[Fatbat]

Hopefully another Twin gives him a run at the title.  Two guys in the Cy Young talks come September would be awesome!

[TwinsDr2021]

13 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Bibee has him in bWAR (3.6 to 3.3), but Pablo leads him substantially in fWAR (4.5 to 3.0)

IMO, fWAR does a much better job describing the talent of the pitcher vs just comparing results. 

My point was last year it went Gray, Bibee, Lopez in terms of WAR in the Central, and the guy that finished 2nd in the ROY and had the second highest WAR gets no mention, but Ryan, Ragans, and Skubal do?

I will say I don't understand what talent of the pitcher vs results even means.

[Cody Schoenmann]

24 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My point was last year it went Gray, Bibee, Lopez in terms of WAR in the Central, and the guy that finished 2nd in the ROY and had the second highest WAR gets no mention, but Ryan, Ragans, and Skubal do?

I will say I don't understand what talent of the pitcher vs results even means.

The argument is structured around the projection systems, and I think Bibee is ranked below López, Ragans, and Skubal in every model besides ZiPS (I don’t know off hand, so don’t quote me on that lol). I like Bibee a lot, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think he has the same ceiling as López, Ragans, or Skubal. Nevertheless, I should have mentioned him alongside Bieber, McKenzie, Cease, and Ryan. 

Edited February 6, 2024 by Cody Schoenmann

[tony&rodney]

Health is always a key for any pitcher. That and having three pitches working at one time make for quite a bit of success. Lopez was good last year and I hope he is good this year too. I hope that Skubal has a good year as well. He has amazing pitches. It is fun to watch pitches work.

[stringer bell]

Good health Pablo!

I think Skubal will be really good, as well, but López is ahead of him right now. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Don't sleep on Bailey Ober. Lopez had slightly higher WAR (3.3 to 3.0), more innings (194 to 144 - Ober started the season at AAA), and a better strikeout rate, but Ober had better WHIP (1.067 to 1.155). They were pretty close in batters' OPS and hard hit rate (slightly better in each for Lopez). I believe they will be a very effective 1-2 punch for the Twins this year.

Ober threw approximately 4-5 starts (around 21 innings) in St Paul so those innings, with similar results to the 144 would get him awfully close to the 3.3 WAR posted by Lopez. Good supposed #3 guy!!

[JD-TWINS]

Pablo seems to have an advantage on the #1 spot based on last year’s results……..am hoping he’s challenged by Montgomery after Twins sign him. Fingers crossed.

[Doctor Gast]

There's no doubt that these younger SPs will have spurts of greatness but yet not be able to sustain it to overtake Pablo. I see Pablo still getting better.

[JoeCool]

I think Pablo has a good chance to be strong in 2023 and I would not rule out Bailey Ober as an up and coming contender to be in that mix. If the Twins do not make a trade in the next week I am starting to believe they will stretch out Johan Duran and make him a starter to replace Sonny Gray as a number 2 as well.   

The Jay Jackson signing also points to something being potentially up with the Twins Bullpen. Just a hunch.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

Lopez is not the best SP in the Central right now. That distinction belongs to Dylan Cease. Will Lopez put up the best numbers in 2024? That is a good possibility.

But yeah, Bibbee, Ragans, Skubal, Lopez and Cease are all going to be really good. Right now if I could choose just one for my team for 2024 I'd go with Cease over Lopez.

[roger]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

Don't sleep on Bailey Ober. Lopez had slightly higher WAR (3.3 to 3.0), more innings (194 to 144 - Ober started the season at AAA), and a better strikeout rate, but Ober had better WHIP (1.067 to 1.155). They were pretty close in batters' OPS and hard hit rate (slightly better in each for Lopez). I believe they will be a very effective 1-2 punch for the Twins this year.

Is that an argument, arby, that Ober is talented enough to be a legit #2?  Maybe the FO agrees with you.  That would explain their not going out and signing/trading for that high priced starter.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My point was last year it went Gray, Bibee, Lopez in terms of WAR in the Central, and the guy that finished 2nd in the ROY and had the second highest WAR gets no mention, but Ryan, Ragans, and Skubal do?

I will say I don't understand what talent of the pitcher vs results even means.

Right, baseball reference calculates WAR differently than Fangraphs (or any other WAR-provider) does.

To keep it simple Baseball Reference bases pitcher WAR off of runs allowed and tries to adjust for the quality of the team defense, while Fangraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as the basis - which is a stat that completely eliminates defensive contribution and focuses on the things a pitcher can fully control - walks, strikeouts and homeruns.

I'm of the opinion that generally FIP does a better job describing a pitchers talent vs. the luck involved with how many seeing-eye singles they allow or how good the defense behind them is.

Anyway, your order is correct for Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR), but Fangraphs (fWAR) has it as such for the AL Central: 

1. Sonny Gray - 5.3
2. Pablo Lopez - 4.5
3. Dylan Cease - 3.7
4. Tarik Skubal - 3.3 (80.1 IP)
5. Tanner Bibee - 3.0 (142 IP)
6. Bailey Ober - 2.4
7. Cole Ragans - 2.2 (96 IP)
8. Joe Ryan - 2.2 

I included innings pitched because WAR is a cumulative stat. If you scale those WAR totals to 160 IP you'd get

1. Tarik Skubal - 6.6 fWAR
2. Cole Ragans - 3.7 fWAR
3. Tanner Bibee - 3.4 fWAR

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

Don't sleep on Bailey Ober. Lopez had slightly higher WAR (3.3 to 3.0), more innings (194 to 144 - Ober started the season at AAA), and a better strikeout rate, but Ober had better WHIP (1.067 to 1.155). They were pretty close in batters' OPS and hard hit rate (slightly better in each for Lopez). I believe they will be a very effective 1-2 punch for the Twins this year.

Fangraphs and Statcast think Pablo had a significantly better year than Ober, with 4.5 fWAR to 2.4 and an xERA of 3.00 to 3.63. 

And that's absolutely not a dig at Ober! That puts him at 51st of 172 in fWAR (80+ IP) and 19th of 162 in xERA (approx 80 IP).

Looking at xERA, the Twins are very well primed for a great 1-3 punch with Pablo at #1, Ryan at #14 and Ober at #19. 

[Schmoeman5]

So all these "projections" for Pablo Lopez 2024. I'm curious as to what those projections were for him coming into 2023. Just to compare. I could be wrong, but I doubt they were nearly what they are now. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

which is a stat that completely eliminates defensive contribution and focuses on the things a pitcher can fully control - walks, strikeouts and homeruns.

I respectfully disagree that are the only things pitchers can control(The best of the best are obviously or usually really good at those 3), Giving up a rocket off the wall for a double, or giving up a hit that no matter what the defense didn't effect, or making a mistake pitch on the outside when all the defensive players are shifted. Only counting those things glorifies the give everything you got, run up pitch counts, short starts and discounts pitcher that actually are using their talent to keep pitch counts down, pitch longer into the game, reduce bullpen usage and win games. Results matter

 

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Fangraphs and Statcast think Pablo had a significantly better year than Ober, with 4.5 fWAR to 2.4 and an xERA of 3.00 to 3.63. 

.The Twins won games Ober started (16-10) at a ..615 clip, Lopez (19-13) at a .593 clip. The both ended up with about the same ERA, Lopez averaged a bit more per start and did it in 6 more starts and went about doing it a different way (striking out 1.8 more batters per 9, walking .4 more batters per 9 or giving up .3 homer per game), so IMO he had the better year, but I don't know that should be considered significantly better just unless it is based on games and innings

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I respectfully disagree that are the only things pitchers can control(The best of the best are obviously or usually really good at those 3), Giving up a rocket off the wall for a double, or giving up a hit that no matter what the defense didn't effect, or making a mistake pitch on the outside when all the defensive players are shifted. Only counting those things glorifies the give everything you got, run up pitch counts, short starts and discounts pitcher that actually are using their talent to keep pitch counts down, pitch longer into the game, reduce bullpen usage and win games. Results matter

I said "fully control" - I didn't say that pitchers don't have any control over what type of contact they generally give up. 

If a ball is rocketed right at a fielder, does the pitcher get credit for an out, no strings attached? If a pitcher gives up a bunt single and the LF misplays an easy popup and the runner scores, the pitcher gets all the blame? These things tend to even out over larger sample sizes like multiple seasons.

I think you're overestimating how many no-doubt hits there are over a full season (other than home runs).

FIP correlates much more strongly with the next season's ERA than the previous season's ERA. 

Quote

The Twins won games Ober started (16-10) at a .615 clip, Lopez (19-13) at a .593 clip. The both ended up with about the same ERA, Lopez averaged a bit more per start and did it in 6 more starts and went about doing it a different way (striking out 1.8 more batters per 9, walking .4 more batters per 9 or giving up .3 homer per game), so IMO he had the better year, but I don't know that should be considered significantly better just unless it is based on games and innings

Wins are an extremely poor judge of how a pitcher impacts the game. Does the pitcher choose how many runs the offense scores? Jacob DeGrom went 10-9 in 2018 when he had an ERA of 1.70

All the underlying metrics, like FIP, show that Pablo's higher ERA last season was unlucky and Ober's lower ERA was lucky. I don't want this to come off like I'm trashing Bailey Ober, it's incredibly impressive how far he's come. But it's a very safe bet that Pablo outperforms him in 2024. 

[Boswell]

The Twins made the right call to have Lopez lead the way in the postseason over Gray.  Such a bummer to have Sonny lay an egg in Game 3 of the ALDS!

I’m also not worried that letting Sonny go will hurt us that much in the end.  We do need Ober or Ryan to take a step up to a solid #2, while the other starter (or someone from our #4-#8 group) needs to make the #3 spot stick. 
 

Should the bullpen, hitting, fielding and baserunning come together over a full season (or just peak in September, for goodness sake), we’ll be in the playoff business once more!

(With 4/8 of the best starters in the Central, how did we make it so hard on ourselves in 2023?)