Will Pablo López Remain the AL Central's Best Starting Pitcher in 2024?

Last October, starting pitcher Pablo López was at the center of two of the most meaningful moments in Twins' history. In his first postseason start with the Twins, López helped end the organization's 18-game playoff losing streak, giving up one earned run while striking out three Toronto Blue Jays hitters over 5 2/3 innings pitched. Five days later, the 27-year-old native of Venezuela took the mound in Houston, tossing seven shutout innings against the daunting Astros, guiding the Twins to a series tie with the then-defending World Series champions. López's stellar performances earned him folk hero status among Twins faithful, while earning him the title of "best Twins starting pitcher since Johan Santana" for the upcoming season.

Fast forward three months, and Twins fans are just as enamored of the right-handed hurler. Typically, when a player is idolized within a fan base, that same sense of admiration isn't matched nationally. However, López has been treated with the same level of respect from the game's most prestigious writers and projection models. Here is how López is ranked around the league:

• Eno Sarris' Stuff+ Powered Projections: 12th
• Nick Pollack's Top 200 Pitchers for 2024: 6th
• FanGraphs's 2024 ZiPS Projections: 10th
• FanGraphs's STEAMER Projections: 7th
• Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA Projections: 11th

Sarris' and Pollack's projections are fantasy baseball-specific, but the point remains. Although there is plenty of reason to be drawn toward López as a person and the intangibles he provides as an ace-level starting pitcher, the driving force behind the optimism surrounding the former Marlin is his 2023 numbers. Over 194 innings pitched in 32 starts, López fashioned the highest strikeout rate of his career (29.2%) while increasing the velocity on his fastball (which had the most ride in his career), adding a sweeper that quickly became one of the best in baseball and strengthening his already formidable changeup, becoming the best starting pitcher in the AL Central.

López deserves the praise he has received this offseason, and while there is reason to believe he will become the first Twins pitcher to win the AL Cy Young Award since Santana in 2006, the opal of Twins' fans eyes has close company within his division. Upon first glance at fellow AL Central starting pitchers, the names that catch one's attention are Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Joe Ryan. While Bieber, McKenzie, Ryan, and (most notably) Cease deserve to be considered front-of-the-rotation starting pitchers, a pair of less-known young starting pitchers have become projection-model darlings who could challenge López's spot as the best starting pitcher in the AL Central.

Cole Ragans - Kansas City Royals
Ragans, 26, made his MLB debut with the Texas Rangers in 2022, manufacturing a 4.95 ERA, 4.91 FIP, and lackluster 15.5% strikeout rate over 40 innings and 174 total batters faced that season. Jump to 2023, and the former first-round pick was traded (alongside outfield prospect Roni Cabrera) to the Royals, in exchange for reliever Aroldis Chapman on June 30.

Upon joining the Royals starting rotation, Ragans exploded onto the scene, generating a 1.69 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and an astounding 11.6 K/9 over 53 1/3 innings and 207 batters faced. Ragans's fastball sits around 96.5 MPH (89th percentile) while consistently touching 99 MPH, but his late-season dominance came from his ability to use an assortment of five superb pitches. Here are the five offerings Ragans has, along with their usage rate:

• Fastball (40.1%)
• Changeup (23.7%)
• Cutter (13.3%)
• Curveball (12.5%)
• Slider (10.4%)

Ragans's performance dipped toward the end of September, as he stumbled to a 5.40 ERA and 4.13 FIP and saw his strikeout rate sag. In a small sample, Ragans illustrated that he could pitch at a high level, despite having a poor defense behind him. Heading into 2024 with an improved defense, Ragans projects to perform more closely to the pitcher he was his first month in Kansas City:

• Sarris' Projections: 28th 
• Pollack's Projections: 20th
• ZiPS: 125th 
• STEAMER: 37th 
• PECOTA: 26th

Ragans isn't viewed as favorably as López--rightfully so--but to be ranked as a top-30 starting pitcher by three of the most reputable projection systems after two months of sustained success is no small feat. Alongside Bieber, McKenzie, and Cease, Ragans is one of the best starting pitchers in the AL Central. If he can sustain his late-season success with an improved Royals defense and fine-tuned cutter and slider, the North Florida Christian High School product should join the ranks of López and this fellow young lefty as the best starting pitchers in the AL Central.

Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers
Skubal, 27, made his MLB debut with the Tigers in 2020, producing a 5.63 ERA, 4.48 FIP, and 10.41 K/9 over 117 2/3 IP and 477 BF. Although the former 9th-round pick's results were subpar, he demonstrated potential, evidenced by his eye-popping strikeout rate. Year over year, Skubal's numbers improved, until he truly broke out in 2022, posting a 3.52 ERA, 2.96 FIP, and slightly less impressive 9.0 K/9.

The Seattle University product's breakout continued into 2023, culminating in a 2.80 ERA, 2.00 FIP, and astonishing 11.4 K/9 over 80 1/3 IP and 310 BF returning from flexor tendon surgery that prematurely ended his 2022. Skubal demonstrated the best fastball velocity (averaging 95.8 MPH) and slider and changeup shapes of his career. He sports a vast pitch mix:

• Four-seam fastball (36%)
• Changeup (24.5%)
• Slider (20.6%)
• Sinker (12.2%)
• Knuckle Curve (6.8%)

Like Ragans, Skubal sports a five-pitch mix, with his four-seam fastball and changeup being his most effective pitches. Adding Skubal's expansive repertoire of plus pitches to his breakout performance in 2022 and dominating return from injury in 2023, the 255th pick in the 2019 draft has quickly become a prime candidate to become one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2024, and the projection models agree:

• Sarris' Projections: 16th
• Pollack's Projections: 15th
• ZiPS: 47th
• STEAMER: 8th 
• PECOTA: 6th

Beyond ZiPS (which rates Ragans and Skubal low), Skubal ranks nine spots behind López in Pollack's rankings, four spots behind in Sarris' rankings, and just one spot behind ranking in STEAMER. Interestingly, PECOTA placed Skubal five spots ahead of López. Although López is currently ranked higher by most projection models and ranking systems, don't be surprised if a hot start in 2024 propels Skubal up the ranks. As noted, Skubal is injury-prone, which lowers his ceiling, but if he can throw over 150 healthy innings (a career mark he has yet to surpass) next season, he could quickly become an under-the-radar AL Cy Young Award candidate.

Heading into the 2024 MLB season, López is perceived to be the best starting pitcher in the AL Central. Though this prestigious title is well-deserved, it's far from certain, now or looking ahead. With his 2023 co-ace now twirling for the Cardinals, López faces more of a burden than ever, and if he's not able to hold onto his primacy in this individual sense, the Twins might struggle to remain ahead of the pack in a collective one.

Will López remain the best starting pitcher in the AL Central in 2024? Could Ragans or Skubal could surpass him? Could Cease, Bieber, McKenzie, or Ryan surpass López? How would you rank the seven starting pitchers mentioned? Join the discussion and comment below.