Is Carlos Santana Better than You Think?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 2/5/2024 at 12:08 PM, Riverbrian said:

I appreciate your usage of Logan Morrison... who is my favorite poster boy of the bad bad bad bad vet who walks past the lineup card because he knows he will be on it despite not deserving to be on it, while taking the team down with him.

Logan Morrison should never be forgotten as a prime example of the process going horribly wrong and the need for an escape hatch. Logan Morrison should never be forgotten as a prime example of the front offices not being perfect and the job being very hard.  

From your lips (Fingertips) to Gods (Twins Front Office) Ear. I hope your suggestion for the 2024 Twins Twins front office is how they operate... I hope they will have the strength to move on from a failing veteran player who has less than a year on his deal if that player is not getting it done.  

Morrison in 2018 tells me they don't.

Simmons in 2021 tells me they don't. 

Gallo and Kepler in 2023 tells me that they don't.   

 

 

100% agreed! Also Kepler is the example of why they hang on too long. 25% of our sample turned their season around to become a net positive on the season. 25% has to be better odds than some/many/most of the individual minor league roster churn moves available to be made at a given time

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

100% agreed! Also Kepler is the example of why they hang on too long. 25% of our sample turned their season around to become a net positive on the season. 25% has to be better odds than some/many/most of the individual minor league roster churn moves available to be made at a given time

Your point is solid. I'm not arguing merely discussing. I was wrong to cut him in June yet also right at the same time. 

Using 100 AB's as a qualifier. Post All Star Break - Max Kepler ranked 27th OPS in all of baseball in OPS, 

That is an incredible half of baseball and I fully recognize what Kepler did and I tip my hat.  

However... (there is always a however with me). Out of the 26 names in baseball above Kep. Again... using 100 AB's as qualifier. Here are the younger players ahead of him.

4. Triston Cases 1,034 - Rookie - Highly Ranked Prospect

8. Davis Schneider 1.007 - 28th round pick - 24 year old rookie that I can't find on any prospect rankings. 

12. Royce Lewis - Rookie - Highly Ranked Prospect

14. Nolan Jones - Rookie - Once a highly ranked prospect who fell to suspect prospect when the Guardians traded him to the Rockies for a pretty good low level prospect. 

17. Luis Rengifo - Not a Rookie but a player who has never been in the company he was keeping post all-star break. 

26. Ryan Jeffers - Young Player who wasn't that great in 2023.

If you adjust the qualifier down to 30 AB's and Evan Carter, Sean Bouchard, Jasson Dominguez, Sam Huff and Emmanual Valdez show up. 

No doubt I was wrong about cutting Kepler because Kepler eventually showed me. I was also right because the cost for that great 2nd half was 2.5 years of below average and possibly a Nolan Jones or Davis Schnieder type. 

The odds are impossible to calculate because Davis Schneider types fall silently when they get swallowed up by Max Kepler types who fall loud and long. 

At some point... you have to reach into the raffle drum. In June... I was up to my elbow deep in the raffle drum. 

 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

12 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Your point is solid. I'm not arguing merely discussing. I was wrong to cut him in June yet also right at the same time. 

Using 100 AB's as a qualifier. Post All Star Break - Max Kepler ranked 27th OPS in all of baseball in OPS, 

That is an incredible half of baseball and I fully recognize what Kepler did and I tip my hat.  

However... (there is always a however with me). Out of the 26 names in baseball above Kep. Again... using 100 AB's as qualifier. Here are the younger players ahead of him.

4. Triston Cases 1,034 - Rookie - Highly Ranked Prospect

8. Davis Schneider 1.007 - 28th round pick - 24 year old rookie that I can't find on any prospect rankings. 

12. Royce Lewis - Rookie - Highly Ranked Prospect

14. Nolan Jones - Rookie - Once a highly ranked prospect who fell to suspect prospect when the Guardians traded him to the Rockies for a pretty good low level prospect. 

17. Luis Rengifo - Not a Rookie but a player who has never been in the company he was keeping post all-star break. 

26. Ryan Jeffers - Young Player who wasn't that great in 2023.

If you adjust the qualifier down to 30 AB's and Evan Carter, Sean Bouchard, Jasson Dominguez, Sam Huff and Emmanual Valdez show up. 

No doubt I was wrong about cutting Kepler because Kepler eventually showed me. I was also right because the cost for that great 2nd half was 2.5 years of below average and possibly a Nolan Jones or Davis Schnieder type. 

The odds are impossible to calculate because Davis Schneider types fall silently when they get swallowed up by Max Kepler types who fall loud and long. 

At some point... you have to reach into the raffle drum. In June... I was up to my elbow deep in the raffle drum. 

 

 

 

The fallback option to Kepler, was realistically Trevor Larnach. For as much grief as Larnach gets on the boards, his career 96 wRC+ isn’t vastly different than Kepler’s 103, for less than 1/10th the price and the potential to develop a better player, or at the least have another guy with options to shuttle.

who is Santana’s Larnach? Chris Williams?

[Jocko87]

5 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The fallback option to Kepler, was realistically Trevor Larnach. For as much grief as Larnach gets on the boards, his career 96 wRC+ isn’t vastly different than Kepler’s 103, for less than 1/10th the price and the potential to develop a better player, or at the least have another guy with options to shuttle.

who is Santana’s Larnach? Chris Williams?

Probably Yunior since he's on the 40 man.  

Honestly, my favorite part of this signing is the partial coach aspect of it.  Absolute professional hitter with all the traits we want to see come out of the young guys is a pretty good fit.  All reports are that he is into the mentoring stuff too. 

It's not really measurable but if he's 0.700 OPS I gotta think he is sprinkling another 100 points around the lineup.  He's a perfect pair with Popkins, new school coach and a guy that has been doing it forever. He helps fill Popkins lack of experience.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

45 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Probably Yunior since he's on the 40 man.  

Honestly, my favorite part of this signing is the partial coach aspect of it.  Absolute professional hitter with all the traits we want to see come out of the young guys is a pretty good fit.  All reports are that he is into the mentoring stuff too. 

It's not really measurable but if he's 0.700 OPS I gotta think he is sprinkling another 100 points around the lineup.  He's a perfect pair with Popkins, new school coach and a guy that has been doing it forever. He helps fill Popkins lack of experience.  

Good point on Yunior.

i think you are weighting the coaching aspect very heavily, and considering Popkins has 4 years of professional hitting coach experience compared with Santana’s zero, it’s a bit of a stretch. I’m not saying there’s zero coaching done by Santana, but his impact will be direct on the baseball

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Good point on Yunior.

i think you are weighting the coaching aspect very heavily, and considering Popkins has 4 years of professional hitting coach experience compared with Santana’s zero, it’s a bit of a stretch. I’m not saying there’s zero coaching done by Santana, but his impact will be direct on the baseball

Popkins had two cups of coffee an AA, Santana has over 8100 major league plate appearances.  I'm not one that would say you have to have that experience to coach or lead, quite the opposite in fact.  What you have to do is figure out how to fill in your gaps. Popkins gap is experience. It's a hand in glove.

I'm still wondering what happened in August when they had player only meetings and were dumping hitting plans.  They started hitting after that.  My gut tells me Popkins got a lot of feedback, that he's still here tells me he took it. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Good point on Yunior.

i think you are weighting the coaching aspect very heavily, and considering Popkins has 4 years of professional hitting coach experience compared with Santana’s zero, it’s a bit of a stretch. I’m not saying there’s zero coaching done by Santana, but his impact will be direct on the baseball

If not Severino, than Miranda, Camargo and Martin who are all on the 40-man. Then there's another half dozen corner OF/1B types that are not on the 40 man but viable or close to it.

I'm not hiring a guy to be a 'veteran coach'. Either hire another coach, or hire a good hitter who's a veteran who's more likely to be better than all of these guys with options. Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Vazquez, Castro and Farmer aren't enough? That's 46% of the offense. Do they need one 'vet' for every player under three years of experience? Daycare providers and high school chaperones would love to have that kind of supervisory ratio, and we are talking about human beings who are old enough to vote.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If not Severino, than Miranda, Camargo and Martin who are all on the 40-man. Then there's another half dozen corner OF/1B types that are not on the 40 man but viable or close to it.

I'm not hiring a guy to be a 'veteran coach'. Either hire another coach, or hire a good hitter who's a veteran who's more likely to be better than all of these guys with options. Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Vazquez, Castro and Farmer aren't enough? That's 46% of the offense. Do they need one 'vet' for every player under three years of experience? Daycare providers and high school chaperones would love to have that kind of supervisory ratio, and we are talking about human beings who are old enough to vote.

I had wiped Miranda from my memory for some reason! How quickly I forgot!

Miranda is likely the “Larnach” for Santana. His 57 wRC+ last year gives a pretty low floor but his career is around 102 and his projections are all around 100.

Santana for his career is 116, but his projection is 100, and his last several years have been 100 or below. His floor is higher than Miranda’s, but he doesn’t raise the bar.

i don’t really get the Santana signing. Again I don’t hate it either, he at least brings an approach that Gallo didn’t, but it feels like spending for the sake of spending, without actually improving the lineup.

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The fallback option to Kepler, was realistically Trevor Larnach. For as much grief as Larnach gets on the boards, his career 96 wRC+ isn’t vastly different than Kepler’s 103, for less than 1/10th the price and the potential to develop a better player, or at the least have another guy with options to shuttle.

who is Santana’s Larnach? Chris Williams?

Someone... Anyone else is what I always say when I get to the point in my head that I'm ready to throw away 100 games remaining of the 20 million dollars combined between Kepler and Gallo. If you are going to cut... what? around 12 million dollars in June. You certainly can't trade it. They'll just end up playing for the minimum for someone else. That first week of June... I was more than ready to set them a drift and reach into the raffle drum. 

It's interesting that you bring up Chris Williams because he would have been one of the guys in that someone... anyone else raffle drum... I remember that he was showing some pop across the Mississippi River. I tend to not worry as much about exact positional matches when it's time to call someone up.

What are the odds that your 2B in St. Paul is tearing the cover off the ball at the exact moment that your MLB 2B gets hurt. If you try to match it up positions for call ups... the odds are overwhelming that the best player is not called up. 

So... If it's time to cut Santana... they won't do it... but if they do... The answer is whoever is earning it in St. Paul. If It's Larnach... It's Larnach. If it's Brooks Lee... It's Brooks Lee. 

 

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If not Severino, than Miranda, Camargo and Martin who are all on the 40-man. Then there's another half dozen corner OF/1B types that are not on the 40 man but viable or close to it.

I'm not hiring a guy to be a 'veteran coach'. Either hire another coach, or hire a good hitter who's a veteran who's more likely to be better than all of these guys with options. Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Vazquez, Castro and Farmer aren't enough? That's 46% of the offense. Do they need one 'vet' for every player under three years of experience? Daycare providers and high school chaperones would love to have that kind of supervisory ratio, and we are talking about human beings who are old enough to vote.

I've often heard it said but always question the value of such things. 

The Orioles won 101 games last year.

Are any of us ready to declare that it was the presence of Adam Frazier Aaron Hicks and James McCann that got them there.  

[Riverbrian]

The Altuve contract extension provided an opportunity to bring up a point that I make often on this website. 

In the past I have mentioned Altuve as one of the reasons... one of the examples... of why you don't let vets on expiring contracts play terribly and block up a roster spot besides the obvious... that they are playing terribly.  

The last time I mentioned Altuve... I mentioned that he was not a highly ranked prospect when he was given a major league job. Nobody expected Altuve to be anything when he got an opportunity. Someone responded that Altuve was killing it in the minors and therefore not a big surprise. 

Altuve was a surprise... nobody (including the Astros) thought Altuve was going to be Altuve.  

He has been recently quoted after signing his extension through 2029.

“When I got called up the first time back in 2011, they told me it was just something temporary until they find another second baseman,” Altuve said.

https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-altuve-discusses-contract-extension-with-astros

A struggling vet on an expiring contract can be fixed but by the time you fix them... they are gone and all you are left holding is the damage that occurred while waiting for them to turn it around just before they are gone.

In the meantime.,. roster spots are gold... that roster spot that they occupy as they waste it with terrible play could be given to someone... anyone else, Chris Williams, Yunior Severino, Austin Martin... anyone who is performing like they want a chance at a major league career. Anyone performing like they want an opportunity and just need the roster space to be granted.  

More often than not... the player you replace Santana with isn't going to be a long term solution but you already know that Santana isn't a long term solution so you might as well try someone else. If the vet is playing badly... can it get worse with a Someone... Anyone Else. Trying someone else... regardless of what Keith Law says about them is how you accidentally trip over an Altuve, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Cedric Mullins, Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista. Someone... Anyone Else is how Nick Anderson remains a Twin.     

This is why Logan Morrison bothers me to this day, This is why Andrealton Simmons bothered me, It's why Logan Forsythe playing every day in September bothered me and this is why Carlos Santana scares the crap out of me. 

With that said... I wish Carlos well... and I hope it doesn't come to what I worry about. 

[nicksaviking]

29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've often heard it said but always question the value of such things. 

The Orioles won 101 games last year.

Are any of us ready to declare that it was the presence of Adam Frazier Aaron Hicks and James McCann that got them there.  

I mean, we all loved Nelson Cruz and everyone here wanted him back as a coach, but did the Rays, Nationals, or Padres like Nelson Cruz the same way? None of them kept him very long. Save for a big bat, I'm curious what the veteran players specifically do to make the teams better that the coaches can't do?

Besides trashcan Morse Code.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I watched Santana a lot with the Brewers last year. He's going to start declining at literally any minute but he's still capable of taking good, professional at-bats from both sides of the plate. He also plays a nice first base.

His numbers won't light up the room but he's the kind of guy you're very comfortable putting in the 5-7 spots depending on matchup.

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I mean, we all loved Nelson Cruz and everyone here wanted him back as a coach, but did the Rays, Nationals, or Padres like Nelson Cruz the same way? None of them kept him very long. Save for a big bat, I'm curious what the veteran players specifically do to make the teams better that the coaches can't do?

Besides trashcan Morse Code.

Nick Nelson has started the discussion of intangibles on another thread and it's quite possible that Santana was the inspiration. 

How do you quantify the leadership of Carlos Santana on a spreadsheet. 

He's a leader so hitting .220 is OK? He's a leader however hitting .200 isn't enough? 

He's a leader and therefore he must be in the lineup every day in order to lead? He's a leader... so he can lead by sitting next to Rocco and being an extra voice? Will his vet ideas conflict or match up with what Rocco and the coaching staff is saying? Is the front office and coaching staff going to pump him for best practices from other organizations? 

If Julien's OPS drops 100 points... is it Carlos Santana's lack of intangibles?      

 

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Nick Nelson has started the discussion of intangibles on another thread and it's quite possible that Santana was the inspiration. 

How do you quantify the leadership of Carlos Santana on a spreadsheet. 

He's a leader so hitting .220 is OK? He's a leader however hitting .200 isn't enough? 

He's a leader and therefore he must be in the lineup every day in order to lead? He's a leader... so he can lead by sitting next to Rocco and being an extra voice? Will his vet ideas conflict or match up with what Rocco and the coaching staff is saying? Is the front office and coaching staff going to pump him for best practices from other organizations? 

If Julien's OPS drops 100 points... is it Carlos Santana's lack of intangibles?      

 

Yeah, it should also be noted that like all equations, OPS itself is in fact intangible, and that's kind of what I'm looking for in veteran free agents. Ones I can't touch but that I can absolutely measure.

[IaBeanCounter]

02/07/24

Minnesota Twins designated RHP Jordan Balazovic for assignment.

The cost of signing Santana and Jackson.  I expect Balazovic to be claimed.

 

[IaBeanCounter]

I think Santana will be a better addition than Gallo was last year, but who will be the 13 position players?

My Current Locks : (10) Jeffers, Vazquez, Correa, Farmer, Julien, Lewis, Santana, Castro, Kepler, Buxton

Available (9); Camargo, Martin, Miranda, Severino, Gordon, Kirilloff, Larnach, Rodriquez, Wallner

My picks : Gordon (no options left), Kirilloff, Wallner

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

28 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

02/07/24

Minnesota Twins designated RHP Jordan Balazovic for assignment.

The cost of signing Santana and Jackson.  I expect Balazovic to be claimed.

 

Well we have added Ryan Jensen to AAA who still has an option.  Will see what happens to Balazovic, Duarte and Thompson,  see if they get claimed or not.  It looks like teams who can put teams on the 60 day in the next day or 2 are Dodgers and Padres,  otherwise the rest of the teams rosters seem fairly filled out right now.  

[stringer bell]

34 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Well we have added Ryan Jensen to AAA who still has an option.  Will see what happens to Balazovic, Duarte and Thompson,  see if they get claimed or not.  It looks like teams who can put teams on the 60 day in the next day or 2 are Dodgers and Padres,  otherwise the rest of the teams rosters seem fairly filled out right now.  

Remember that the 60-day list means 60 days from Opening Day, so putting a guy on the 60-day means he is out until about June 1. Pitchers who had TJ would be in this group, like Paddack was last year, but there isn't going to be two or three moves per team. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/5/2024 at 10:48 AM, stringer bell said:

Carlos Santana was a solid player for a full decade for the Cleveland franchise. With Cleveland being in Minnesota's division, Twins fans saw plenty of Santana from 2010 to 2020. Santana has moved around a lot since 2020, playing for the Royals, Pirates, Mariners and Brewers and will turn 38 in two months. His stats have been debated on other threads here at Twins Daily, with (perhaps) the consensus being that he hasn't been really good since 2019, but that he adds value because he's a good defender at first base and a switch hitter with stronger hitting as a right handed batter.

In glancing at Santana's stat line for 2023, two numbers hit me as significant and way better than expected. According to BBRef Santana compiled 2.7 WAR--that number would have been better than all Twins position players except Ryan Jeffers and Max Kepler--and the other number was 86 RBI. While some dismiss RBI as purely an opportunity stat, only the recently departed Jorge Polanco has exceeded that number since the Bomba Squad year of 2019. No Twin has driven in more than 66 runs in the past two years. I am old school enough to be impressed by 86 RBI despite a .240 average and middling .749 OPS.

So how did Santana get to 2.7 (BBRef) WAR? It appears that defense plays an oversized role. BBRef credits Santana with 11 runs above average defensively in 2023, which accounts for all of his runs above average. Now what about those RBI? I checked Santana's splits and saw several interesting numbers--he had opportunity, he hit almost exclusively in the #3 and #4 spots in the order (145 out of 147 games), He produced well in RBI situations. Santana had a .899 OPS with runners in scoring position, compared to a pedestrian .699 with no one in scoring position. He got people home from third base--10 for 34 with 23 RBI with less than two outs and 6 for 18 with 9 RBI with two outs. Santana's best inning for hitting was the 8th--in 53 plate appearances, he hit .370 with a 1.062 OPS. In the close and late stat, Carlos hit .316 with a .929 OPS and finally with two outs and runners in scoring position Santana put up a .834 OPS. 

Carlos Santana's tank might be a lot closer to "E" than "F", but if he can duplicate his performance from last year, he will be worth the roster spot and the $5.25M that he is owed. I honestly hope he isn't used as much as he was in 2023, but his availability and durability have been constants in his long career. That is enhanced by his switch hitting. To me, he fits the profile of "reliable veteran". Add in that Santana has been considered a positive presence in the clubhouse and was traded for by contending clubs in each of the last two years (each made the playoffs), I think his signing might be better than the reaction it has generated.

Seems Kirilloff owns 1B v. RH pitching, so maybe 70-75% of games. That leaves 150-180 AB’s minimum for Santana at 1B. Also, he seems to be the probable DH when Buxton plays OF so Castro can be ready in a flex role off the bench as needed……,another 150-180 AB’s. Pinch hitting - some starts for rest……he may pick up another 60-80 AB’s.

350-400 AB’s and that’s with perfect health with Kirilloff……maybe more?

Hoping for 15 HR and some good 1B play. Good clubhouse guy as well! Nice pick up to mitigate the risk with Miranda.

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/5/2024 at 11:25 AM, Riverbrian said:

If he performs like he did last year... he will help us win games and be a positive member for the Minnesota Twins and a decent signing.  

However... If he performs like he did last year... the value increase over players...  like Miranda, Severino and Martin will be minimal.  

If he performs better than he did last year... he will be a perfect addition to the team. 

If he is worse... He could be a big issue when bad performance is combined with a 40 and 26 man roster spot being spent on a guy who isn't playing well and the club patiently waiting for him to start playing well.    

More risk than reward in my opinion but the reward is definitely possible so I will give him every chance to bring the reward. . 

Making a Pennant push & there’s no signs that Severino will be ready for that on Opening Day. Miranda is an offensive crapshoot that doesn’t play very good defense so reducing that risk was wise. Martin’s not playing any 1B in the near term.

Anybody can be worse than expected. Hope he holds together! Hasn’t missed extensive time since 2014 - another reason to have him paired with Kirilloff.

He lines up with Farmer & possibly Martin as guys that can be plugged in v. LH pitching and excel. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/5/2024 at 4:45 PM, FilthyMogwai said:

His power and run production in Milwaukee last year were phenomenal (33 HR, 100 RBI pace). But, there's a fine line between expectations and hope when a player will be 38 years old - just a few days after Opening Day.  He feels more likely to regress than improve or even maintain. And, as others have pointed out, last year was an outlier over the last three years in those power numbers.

Is he better than I think? I don't think so. He's riskier than many think. He's a solid platoon/backup/veteran clubhouse guy. But if this is it for the off season, I'll be disappointed. 

If people were down on the Gallo signing, are they okay with this one?

Pretty sure Santana had 23 HR in ‘23 & Gallo had 21 last year…….one is considered a HR guy.

Santana is less versatile but every bit as good at 1B. Similarity is that he’ll be available!

$6M less money spent.

Absolutely no problem with signing Santana. Great history posting in the lineup whenever needed combined with way better defense than Miranda at 1B. Good power and good history v. LH pitching.

Miranda has options if there’s an opening. He needs to prove he’s a major league hitter once again - big reduction on pressure to make that happen immediately with addition of Santana.

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/7/2024 at 7:36 AM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

100% agreed! Also Kepler is the example of why they hang on too long. 25% of our sample turned their season around to become a net positive on the season. 25% has to be better odds than some/many/most of the individual minor league roster churn moves available to be made at a given time

Gallo hit terribly from late May through the year. He wasn’t going to be on the Playoff roster (obvious by early July) but hung around as insurance. He played 4 positions and a lot more 1B than expected with Kirilloff’s problems. They had a couple extra spots in September & he played some as needed. They were paying him either way so why not use him to the nth degree? Not a great signing is probably an understatement at $11M but he contributed with his glove regularly & with his availability…….handful of exciting HR’s.

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Making a Pennant push & there’s no signs that Severino will be ready for that on Opening Day. Miranda is an offensive crapshoot that doesn’t play very good defense so reducing that risk was wise. Martin’s not playing any 1B in the near term.

Anybody can be worse than expected. Hope he holds together! Hasn’t missed extensive time since 2014 - another reason to have him paired with Kirilloff.

He lines up with Farmer & possibly Martin as guys that can be plugged in v. LH pitching and excel. 

I hope you are right... I really do. 

These are one of those moments that I'd like to be careful proceeding forward. I don't want to tear Santana down expressing my concern because I hope you are right... I really do. 

I'll just make three points. 

1. Severino, Miranda and Martin are indeed crap shoots... So is Santana. Severino, Miranda and Martin can be sent down if the roll is snake-eyes. Santana Can't. Therefore Santana is the bigger and more expensive crapshoot. 

2. Martin doesn't have to play 1B but if Martin is performing he will need a roster spot.  

3. Lines up with Farmer to be plugged in v. LH pitching.

Farmer and Santana would be 11.3 Million dollars spent on the short side? We move Polanco to free up money... just to spend the equivalent on the short side of the platoon... just to keep the young developing strong side of the platoon in the dark against left handed pitching and therefore hampering their development... I will not go down this aisle of the grocery store.  

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gallo hit terribly from late May through the year. He wasn’t going to be on the Playoff roster (obvious by early July) but hung around as insurance. He played 4 positions and a lot more 1B than expected with Kirilloff’s problems. They had a couple extra spots in September & he played some as needed. They were paying him either way so why not use him to the nth degree? Not a great signing is probably an understatement at $11M but he contributed with his glove regularly & with his availability…….handful of exciting HR’s.

The FO has made it a point to raise the floor in the hitting department. Kyle Farmer is an example of that working well, a backstop to re-signing Correa and a very competent hitter and fielder at multiple positions who did just that as a primarily SS where the bar for hitting is lower and Farmer played a backup role.

Gallo is prime example of failure in that attempt. There’s 5 guys in triple A that can put up .700 OPS for league minimum and play as good of if not better fielding than Gallo. And they stuck with him too long.

they’re both .700 OPS guys,

there’s going to be successes and failures, and the part that is hard is knowing when to give up the ghost. 

Edited February 9, 2024 by Richie the Rally Goat
Clarify

[RpR]

Like Gallo, Santana is a better First Baseman than any of the rookies he would play instead of.

That will also influence when he plays.

For Kirilloff this season could be what determines his baseball future.

[KirbyDome89]

On 2/5/2024 at 3:45 PM, FilthyMogwai said:

His power and run production in Milwaukee last year were phenomenal (33 HR, 100 RBI pace). But, there's a fine line between expectations and hope when a player will be 38 years old - just a few days after Opening Day.  He feels more likely to regress than improve or even maintain. And, as others have pointed out, last year was an outlier over the last three years in those power numbers.

Is he better than I think? I don't think so. He's riskier than many think. He's a solid platoon/backup/veteran clubhouse guy. But if this is it for the off season, I'll be disappointed. 

If people were down on the Gallo signing, are they okay with this one?

Yes, because we're hoping for the status quo, not a bounce back, and Santana's role from the jump is lesser one.

No, because I don't trust that the FO will pull the plug when necessary. 

Overall, signing a 38 year old on the decline isn't something to celebrate. They're buying time, and I'm ok with that (right now) when the alternative is guys with little to no MLB success/experience. 

[Jocko87]

8 hours ago, RpR said:

Like Gallo, Santana is a better First Baseman than any of the rookies he would play instead of.

That will also influence when he plays.

For Kirilloff this season could be what determines his baseball future.

Sounds like he's already penciled in as the primary first baseman and AK will get time at first and DH mix.  Would be interesting if AK works in the outfield a bit again in the spring to keep the flexibility.  It's a big year for him in a lot of ways.

 

[DocBauer]

Could have quoted a bunch of posts individually and commented, but have decided it's best to hit a bunch at once:

1] I was also on the train that would have taken Kepler out of town last year after 2 1/2 years of disappointment and frustration. Glad I was wrong, because he FINALLY made adjustments that raised his game. I don't know how many teams would have had that patience with hum, but the Twins were right and I was absolutely wrong! Now, even with some regression, if he just KEEPS THE SAME APPROACH he found last year, it's great to have him around still.

2]I, and everyone else, were right about Gallo. At times, the FO is so obsessed with sunk cost, or determination for hope, OR depth, that they hold on too long. There comes a time when it is just SO OBVIOUS that it's time to move on, a casual fan could look at the numbers and figure it out. Larnach, Williams, almost anyone from AAA could have stood in the batters box and just hoped for a BB. At least you would be trying for some upside and production from someone else.

I sure hope the FO learned a lessen there.

3] I'm not crazy about the Santana signing, but I don't hate it. I DON'T think he helps Popkins learn something he doesn't already know. I DO THINK he can lead some by example to other young hitters who his his professionalism in how he approaches AB's and how he grinds. (Similar to Julien AND Wallner to a degree). 

I WANTED Miranda and the non 40 man Helman...who's been begging for an opportunity and would have got one in 2023 if not injury plagued but still RAKED at AAA...to battle it out for a Kirilloff partner. Miranda could still play some 3B here and there, PH, DH, etc. Helman can play 7 spots if you need him to, has speed, and some decent power. But Miranda might not be ready, needs to prove himself, and has options. The Twins like Helman, but as an older prospect not on the 40 man, you aren't going to hand him anything. 

Santana is FINE at 1yr and $5M IF he's used properly. Unless he can duplicate his 2023, or be better, both improbable, he's a good match to share 1B with AK against LHP, be a veteran PH, and be reasonably OK as a DH/1B here and there depending on the match up. IF the FO has actual belief and intent that he's anything other than that, THEN I have a serious issue and there is a problem. 

I don't think Severino is ready, and that's fine for now. Helman has to wait for his opportunity and then do something with it. Miranda needs to be healthy and get back to his 2021-22 self. All the better when those things happen. I see Santana as a bridge player who is arguably the 13th man at this point on a roster in which everyone has roles and plays. 

But if the wheels come off, I'd like to think that at 38yo, and only $5M, the FO has learned their lesson and will turn elsewhere for the younger player with upside from St Paul that is deserving a shot.

[DocBauer]

31 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Sounds like he's already penciled in as the primary first baseman and AK will get time at first and DH mix.  Would be interesting if AK works in the outfield a bit again in the spring to keep the flexibility.  It's a big year for him in a lot of ways.

 

IMO, I think it's more if they're both in the lineup, they might DH Kirilloff and let Santana play 1B instead, here and there. Personally, I don't think AK is a poor 1B, just not a great one. I'd rather see him at 1B and let Santana platoon, PH, DH here and there. Not saying AK can't still play a little OF here and there, but you already have Wallner and Kepler as corner OF who bat LH. 

Santana should be looking at 300-350 AB as that platoon 1B/PH/sometimes DH. And he'd better produce. Otherwise, time to bite the bullet and make room for someone younger, cheaper, and with potential.