2024 Prospect Previews: Brandon Winokur

[Jamie Cameron]

With their third round pick in the 2023 draft, the Twins dipped back into a loaded prep class, landing athletic prep player Brandon Winokur. What can Twins fans expect from Winokur in 2024? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

The Twins took Brandon Winokur 82nd in the 2023 Draft, although he was (on our consensus board) the 124th prospect in the draft class. Let's take a look at what prompted them to take him above that expected spot.

Leaning into one of the strengths of the 2023 draft at the top of their class, the Twins grabbed Walker Jenkins and Charlee Soto with their first two selections. After taking high-floored college infielder Luke Keaschall in the second round, they circled back to an incredibly deep prep class in the third round to take Winokur, a 6-foot-5, 210-pound outfielder. Though more common parlance in college football recruiting, it might be more accurate to list Winokur simply as an ‘athlete’. I mean that as a compliment, rather than a jab at defensive uncertainty.

Heading into the draft, Winokur raised his stock with a performance for the ages at the still-new Draft Combine, sending baseball after baseball into orbit. He had the second-hardest-hit ball at the event (113.5 mph), and the hardest average exit velocity of any player with at least a nine-batted ball sample (108.3 mph).

Coming into the draft, scouting reports on the UCLA commit centered on his extraordinary athleticism. A two-way player in high school (somewhat reminiscent of Matt Wallner), Winokur was regularly pumping 96-mph fastballs his senior year, in addition to manning shortstop for Edison High School.

Winokur has easy plus power now, with a chance to be double-plus when it’s all said and done. His ceiling will be determined by his hit tool. As you’d imagine for a hitter of his size, maintaining a swing that is short and direct to the ball with consistency is likely to be a challenge, particularly against elite velocity up in the zone. Winokur moves extremely well for such a large human being (evidenced by his use at shortstop and in center field), and should be at least average defensively with a plus arm, so power is the carrying tool, but certainly not the only one.

The Twins famously benefited from a $2.3-million bump to their bonus pool from moving up in the inaugural draft lottery. Having the fifth-most money to spend overall helped them find leverage within an uncommonly strong prep class. They pried Winokur away from his college commitment with a $1.5-million signing bonus (a handsome bump from that pick's $859,700 slot allotment).

Winokur got a 17-game taste of pro ball in Fort Myers in the FCL after signing, and had a promising start. He put together a .288/.338/.545 line, with four home runs and five doubles to go with 23 strikeouts and just four walks--pretty much as advertised. The Twins elected not to move Winokur up a level at the culmination of the FCL season.

There will be plenty to monitor in 2024. Can he develop a more selective approach at the plate? Work to close holes in his swing? Find a consistent defensive home? Winokur will likely start his 2024 season in Fort Myers. I’d bet he’s one of the most fun new Twins prospects to track this season. Expect big power, expect plenty of strikeouts, and expect to be patient. Winokur is a high-risk, high-reward prospect. When a player with his raw athleticism and toolset clicks, it’s spectacular viewing. It rarely happens right away.

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What are your thoughts on Brandon Winokur? How do you expect him to fare in 2024?

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[Fatbat]

Since his parents are both top notch athletes, he has pedigree. If he can get picky about the strike zone, reduce the K rate and hit a breaking ball, the sky is the limit because the defensive home will find him. 

[jmlease1]

I think he's an interesting prospect and a good risk to take at that spot in the draft. It'll be interesting to see if he starts the season in Low-A at Ft. Myers or if he gets some repeat time in the complex league/rookie ball; it would be a sign of the Twins confidence in his progress if he begins in full-season pro ball already.

His contact rates will probably define him as he advances, especially with his size.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Pretty high ceiling for a 3rd round pick, if they can coax some more contact and plate discipline out of him he really becomes intriguing. Just turned 19 and has a lot of "can't teach that" attributes, here's to hoping the hitter development machine can also hit on Winokur. 

[Karbo]

Taking a prep player in the draft is always a risk, especially in early rounds. This guy looks like a risk worth taking, and I will be interested to see his progress this season!

[terrydactyls]

I've not seen Winoker play so there is one line I need a clarification on.  You state that maintaining a swing that is short and direct to the ball will be challenging.  Did you mean that he already has a short and direct swing and maintaining it will be the challenges?  Or that he needs to develop and maintain a short and direct swing?

[roger]

The Twins took Brandon Winokur 82nd in the 2023 Draft, although he was (on our consensus board) the 124th prospect in the draft class. Let's take a look at what prompted them to take him above that expected spot.

I always get a good smile out of comments like the above.  A group of guys, and maybe gals, read reports prepared by others, talk about players and speculate where they think they should be drafted. 

The Twins have what, 50 professional scouts, many who have seen player X play a lot.  Most of these scouts and other sources have been in the business for a long time and likely have first hand relationships with a kids coaches and opposing coaches.  So when they choose a player at #82, it is likely that is where they believe the player should be drafted, not 124th or wherever else people who have never seen him play expect him to be drafted.

[Jamie Cameron]

45 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I've not seen Winoker play so there is one line I need a clarification on.  You state that maintaining a swing that is short and direct to the ball will be challenging.  Did you mean that he already has a short and direct swing and maintaining it will be the challenges?  Or that he needs to develop and maintain a short and direct swing?

Yeah, I mean, in general, that very tall players are often more susceptible to velo at the top of the zone, as they have longer limbs and can have a longer swing. I think Winokur's swing is pretty direct, so I'm speculating more about how he'll be tested as pitching he faces improves.

[Jamie Cameron]

13 minutes ago, roger said:

The Twins took Brandon Winokur 82nd in the 2023 Draft, although he was (on our consensus board) the 124th prospect in the draft class. Let's take a look at what prompted them to take him above that expected spot.

I always get a good smile out of comments like the above.  A group of guys, and maybe gals, read reports prepared by others, talk about players and speculate where they think they should be drafted. 

The Twins have what, 50 professional scouts, many who have seen player X play a lot.  Most of these scouts and other sources have been in the business for a long time and likely have first hand relationships with a kids coaches and opposing coaches.  So when they choose a player at #82, it is likely that is where they believe the player should be drafted, not 124th or wherever else people who have never seen him play expect him to be drafted.

Two quick comments:

1) 'Let's take a look at what prompted them', was actually an editorial choice. I didn't write that.

2) My board is a compilation of 8-10 industry boards. Winokur was a very interesting prospect as he had ranking ranges all over the place, and there tends to be some clustering with top 150 ranked players. Winokur had rankings as high as top 75 on the inputs I use. It's not a jab at the Twins evaluation of his talent (I'm extremely confident in that), it's more a context setting sentence.

[DocBauer]

With his athleticism and arm, I could easily see him as a 3B a couple of years from now. Of course, just because he's large and probably still growing some more, doesn't mean he will necessarily lose his speed and be out of contention for CF. 

I could see him as a hybrid player who plays CF/OF as well as 1B, very similar to former Angels great Darin Erstad. Or...gulp...dare I say a Gallo comp defensive comp?

As I stated in a different thread, he's probably the Twins prospect that I find the most intriguing.

[joemama]

10 hours ago, roger said:

The Twins took Brandon Winokur 82nd in the 2023 Draft, although he was (on our consensus board) the 124th prospect in the draft class. Let's take a look at what prompted them to take him above that expected spot.

I always get a good smile out of comments like the above.  A group of guys, and maybe gals, read reports prepared by others, talk about players and speculate where they think they should be drafted. 

The Twins have what, 50 professional scouts, many who have seen player X play a lot.  Most of these scouts and other sources have been in the business for a long time and likely have first hand relationships with a kids coaches and opposing coaches.  So when they choose a player at #82, it is likely that is where they believe the player should be drafted, not 124th or wherever else people who have never seen him play expect him to be drafted.

Well yeah, obviously; otherwise they wouldn't have taken him. Maybe he could have written "Let's take a look at what the Twins saw that led them to take him above that consensus spot." ... but the point of his statement was clear to me and should have been to you.

[David HK]

Wow!  An athletic prepster!  

With any luck, he could turn out to be another Keoni Cavaco! 👍

[saviking]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

With his athleticism and arm, I could easily see him as a 3B a couple of years from now. Of course, just because he's large and probably still growing some more, doesn't mean he will necessarily lose his speed and be out of contention for CF. 

I could see him as a hybrid player who plays CF/OF as well as 1B, very similar to former Angels great Darin Erstad. Or...gulp...dare I say a Gallo comp defensive comp?

As I stated in a different thread, he's probably the Twins prospect that I find the most intriguing.

AND HE;S A RIGHT HANDED BATTER 🙃

[weitz41]

Winokur is probably my favorite pick out of last year's draft. Yes, Jenkins has the highest ceiling. But a 6'5" SS/CF?? That's an athlete I want to put some chips on. He's no Brent Rooker, more like a:

James Wood Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

There's very a long way to go but boy-o-boy. The tools look like they are there.