Digging into the Data of the Cedar Rapids Rotation, Part 2

[Jamie Cameron]

A group of four pitchers made waves for the Twins farm system in 2023. Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper, Andrew Morris, and Zebby Matthews all enjoyed success at both Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. What are some of the attributes and numbers behind their success? Let's dig in.

 

Image courtesy of Jean Pfiefer (aka, go4twinkies on Instagram) photos of Andrew Morris, Zebby Matthews

For whatever the reason, Andrew Morris may be the Twins pitcher from the 2022 draft to fly most impressively under the radar, despite being their fourth round pick out of Texas Tech. Morris signed for $500,000 but missed some time early in 2023 through injury. A smaller built starter at 6 '0, 195 lbs, Morris put together impressive showings at Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids in 2023. In 84.1 innings, he managed a 2.88 ERA, with 79 strikeouts and 19 walks. What are his strengths and areas of opportunity? Let’s dive in. 

Morris’ arsenal is headlined by his fastball. His four seamer has an average velocity of 93.5 mph and a 90th percentile velocity of 95.6 mph, which underpins some of it’s other characteristics and Morris’ other pitching traits that help the pitch succeed. Morris get’s good induced vertical break on his fastball (averaging 15.6 inches, but up to 23 inches in 2023). He also has a unique and deceptive release point. Morris’ arm slot features a high, vertical release.

The combination of good carry and a unique release led the pitch to limit damage to the tune of a 3.45 FIP in 2023. Morris’ fastball is a picture of consistency month by month in 2023. Velocity, spin, movement are all incredibly consistent, although Morris seemed to unlock more consistent induced vertical break in July (2 inches more on average). Morris’ fastball performed better against LHH in 2023 than RHH, but that could be because he demonstrated significantly better control of the pitch to LHH. Even though the pitch didn’t get a ton of whiffs (12.7% SwStr% compared to the A+ average of 13.6 SwStr%), it’s a good platform for Morris to work from and has enough to continue to be effective.

Morris’ slider is his most frequently used breaking pitch, a pitch more vertical than horizontal movement that looks on his movement plot like a hybrid slider/cutter.. It features an average separation of around 8 mph from his fastball and had promising results in 2023. Opposing hitters weren’t able to hit it in the air much, or hit it hard much (8.8 Barrel%). The pitch gave up a FIP of 0.97 in 2023. Like his fastball, it doesn’t get a ton of whiffs (27.8 Chase% and 13.8 SwStr% in 2023). Again, much like his fastball, Morris’ slider is a good breaking ball with an opportunity for more.

Morris’ final two offerings are a curveball and a changeup. The curveball is a softer pitch (averaging 75.8 mph in 2023), that produced good results in a limited sample despite giving up a lot of contact, and not generating much swing and miss from hitters. Conversely, Morris’ changeup was given a fringy/below average grade from draft evaluators, but offers the best platform for an effective tertiary pitch for Morris. He throws the pitch pretty hard (88.5 mph average velocity in 2023). In 2023 Morris was able to develop more tumble and fade to his changeup month by month, and the results bore this out. The pitch generated a 15.6 SwStr% in June, and a 34.8% SwStr% in July, while decreasing contact from 68.2% to 38.5%. 

I’d argue that for Morris, the next developmental foci in 2024 are tweaking his slider to generate an established swing and miss breaking pitch, and continuing to develop the consistency of his changeup as a tertiary offering. Playing off the strengths off his fastball, there’s the ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher in the big leagues here.

Zebby Matthews
The Twins signed Zebby Matthews as an under-slot eighth round pick in 2022 out of Western Carolina. Initially known post-draft as a strike thrower with excellent command, the Twins waved their magic velocity wand and helped Matthews’ stuff trend up in 2023, where, like Morris, he split time between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. 

A prototypical starting pitchers’ body at 6 '5, 225 lbs, Matthews enjoyed an excellent 2023. In 108.1 innings across two levels he managed a 3.84 ERA, with 112 strikeouts and just 15 walks. Matthews struggled more at Cedar Rapids, developing a bit of a home run problem. Let’s look under the hood at some of his strengths in 2023, and opportunities for 2024.

Matthews throws from a more typical, three quarter arm slot than Morris. More typical arm angles at release tend to create more typical (read ineffective) fastball shapes. Matthews, however, has good carry on his fastball (17.8 IndVertBrk) and good run on his sinker (13.5 HorzBrk) for his arm slot, which he combines with another significant strength, control and command. Matthews throws his fastball for strikes 70% of the time (compared to the A ball average of 63.3% in 2024). Matthews’ carry and run on his two fastballs means they plays well up and in when thrown to right handed hitters. Looking at a heat map of his fastball location in 2023, his outstanding command allows him to maximize this opportunity. 

All of that adds up to a 13.09 K/9 on his fastball from the data we have available via Tru Media, a pitch generating around 10% less contact than the A ball average and generating about 7% more swinging strikes than average, that’s a strong platform for success.

Zooming in on Matthews’ other pitches points the way for his next opportunity in 2024, developing more unique shapes on his secondary pitches. Matthews throws a slider that looks like it has the characteristics of a sweeper (more horizontal, less vertical movement). Looking at the green dots in the graphic, you’ll notice that there’s a fairly diverse spread here. I’d guess that’s indicative of the Twins and Matthews messing with cues and grips and working to improve the consistency of the pitch. While the slider had good results on the data we have available, it’s clearly a pitch still in development. 

The same can be said of Matthews changeup. Again referring to his movement chart, there’s a blur of Matthews four seam fastball (blue dots), and changeup (purple dots). You’d like to see more of a difference vertically here (look at Morris’ movement chart for a more clear distinction). Like the slider, Matthews’ changeup got good results, likely from the differential in velocity from his fastball (approximately 8 mph in our data set). With a SwStr of just 4.4%, better hitters are going to treat the changeup as a slow fastball, so it won’t maintain effectiveness as he moves through MiLB levels unless the pitch continues to develop more distinctive characteristics.

All of these data are small samples, and with the speed and success of player development, it’s likely these pitching prospects have already outgained some of these noticings. The Twins continue to do an impressive job with both identifying mid-late round pitching talents, and developing them throughout their MiLB journeys. What did you make of Andrew Morris and Zebby Matthews in 2023? What are your expectations for the pair in 2024
Research assistance provided by TruMedia

 

 

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[nclahammer]

Excellent read Jamie.  I'd look for these M&M boys to begin the season right where they finished in Cedar Rapids.  Hopefully Morris and Matthews can continue to develop and work their way up to Wichita by the end of the season.

[Karbo]

In the "old" days, starters in the minors were quite often called up to work out of the pen as they got accustomed to the majors. Think Santana and Liriano. They don't seem to do that any more. Anybody know why?

[jmlease1]

I'm a little nervous about the number of times "doesn't generate a lot of swing and miss" for Morris, but we'll see how his off-speed stuff continues to develop. I think it's very hard to sustain success as you rise through the minors and be a MLB option if you don't have an off-speed pitch that generates the whiffs. That weak contact usually becomes harder contact and the Ks you might have gotten from guys looking at it as it slides on by get spotted by better hitters. But there's still interesting potential here.

Matthews fastball impresses, and if he can find the consistent secondary offerings he could take another fast leap. I do think that the change of speed on a change up that otherwise doesn't move much can still work, especially from a fastball-heavy pitcher, but getting better movement will certainly help it play up.

It's a very fun group of pitchers to track to see how they're developing. I do think we'll find out a lot more about them when they get to AA and are competing against more experienced and sophisticated hitters. College pitchers should have an advantage over most A-ball hitters.

[terrydactyls]

Is there going to be a follow up article on Lewis and Culpepper?  The opening sentence promised a look at four CR pitchers.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

It's a very fun group of pitchers to track to see how they're developing. I do think we'll find out a lot more about them when they get to AA and are competing against more experienced and sophisticated hitters. College pitchers should have an advantage over most A-ball hitters.

This is the key observation. Successful D1 pitchers should fare very well in both levels of A ball as it is similar to good college baseball. We will know a lot more about these guys once they are in AA. If they succeed there then I will get excited about the possibilities. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Is there going to be a follow up article on Lewis and Culpepper?  The opening sentence promised a look at four CR pitchers.

Digging into the Data of the Cedar Rapids Rotation - MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball - Twins Daily

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

In the "old" days, starters in the minors were quite often called up to work out of the pen as they got accustomed to the majors. Think Santana and Liriano. They don't seem to do that any more. Anybody know why?

Analytics.  Low leverage RPs age 26-32 with MLB experience and some retooling  get better results than 21-25 yo prospects. 

[Karbo]

40 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Analytics.  Low leverage RPs age 26-32 with MLB experience and some retooling  get better results than 21-25 yo prospects. 

Analytics huh? I guess that's the way to go then. But I would think it would help develop starters better to have them up for a few weeks at a time just to learn from the vets. Even if they only get a couple of innings, it would be a way to keep the innings from piling up. But I spose they have analytics against doing that too. Game has really changed.

[EGFTShaw]

These articles are excellent but... 

I wish that you would present similar stats on the pitches at the beginning of each prospect.

For example, with Morris you give his FB velocity, etc then with Matthews you didn't. I know these aren't the end all indicators of a pitchers success, but it establishes a baseline when we are comparing pitchers.

if they make it to the Bigs then we have a new set of M & M Brothers, pitching version.

Thanks overall though, this was something i asked for at the end of the season, a series of articles about the pitching in the Twins system.

[High heat]

I don’t see either of these two being big league starters but rather future bullpen options.  Morris with an deceptive delivery  and Zebby with the big body to add velo in short stints and continuing to  develop the sweeper.

[DocBauer]

I only pretend to know anything when it comes to draft selections and the such, lol.

I wasn't crazy about the Morris pick so high. I didn't see large projection or a special pitch to work from. Reading this and looking at the numbers I see a very "Ryan like" projection. Yes, the slider and change need work, but it appears there's some promise there, especially with the slider. I wonder if they can transform his curve in to a sweeper or something similar. He needs something to work horizontally to go with his FB and slider. 

Just as when he was drafted, I like Matthews a little more. He's shown the expected increase in  velocity. The control looks excellent. Obviously, it's not as easy as just saying "tweak this something". You'd kind of expect a college arm with decent ability to at least hold their own at A ball. 

But the arms we're talking about in these articles are off to a good start. And it's not hard to see some nice potential here. 

I'm still placing Morris behind Jones, Culpepper and Matthews until I can see more dominance to go along with control, but I can't wait to continue watching all 4 in 2024.

 

 

[Jamie Cameron]

16 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

These articles are excellent but... 

I wish that you would present similar stats on the pitches at the beginning of each prospect.

For example, with Morris you give his FB velocity, etc then with Matthews you didn't. I know these aren't the end all indicators of a pitchers success, but it establishes a baseline when we are comparing pitchers.

if they make it to the Bigs then we have a new set of M & M Brothers, pitching version.

Thanks overall though, this was something i asked for at the end of the season, a series of articles about the pitching in the Twins system.

Appreciate you reading and the feedback, that's fair. In each case, it's a balance of trying to pick out what's relevant and interesting without going long, but agreed, that was a miss. Matthews fastball velo:

4 seam average: 93.1 (90th percentile 94.9)

2 seam average: 94 (90th percentile 95.3)

[Jamie Cameron]

21 hours ago, Linus said:

This is the key observation. Successful D1 pitchers should fare very well in both levels of A ball as it is similar to good college baseball. We will know a lot more about these guys once they are in AA. If they succeed there then I will get excited about the possibilities. 

Kind of agree with this. I'd expect a D1 pitcher out of a top 2-3 conference (SEC/ACC) to perform well at A and A+. Matthews pitched in Conference USA and Morris for Colorado Mesa (a DII) school prior to his one year at Texas Tech. All that to say, I think there's a little more nuance there. To have 4 guys from small schools or DII backgrounds thriving to the degree they did in 2023 is, I think, a little unusual, based on my MiLB/Draft writings and research.

[4twinsJA]

Thanks for analysis in both articles Jamie. Twins have some interesting arms coming up, these 4, SWR, Festa, Raya, Ohl, Canterino, and others. Don't know if there is a top of rotation/ace type in group but Twins should have some pitching depth the next few years.