Digging into the Data of the Cedar Rapids Rotation

[Jamie Cameron]

A group of four pitchers made waves for the Twins farm system in 2023. Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper, Andrew Morris, and Zebby Matthews all enjoyed success at both Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. What are some of the attributes and numbers behind their success? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of Jean Pfiefer (aka, go4twinkies on Instagram)

The Twins' 2022 draft class is quickly shaping up to be an exciting one. Brooks Lee is on the doorstep of MLB. Tanner Schobel had an exceptional first half for Cedar Rapids before struggling with the adjustment to Double A. One draft tendency that’s well established with the Sean Johnson-run Twins draft room is success in drafting unpolished pitching gems in the middle and late rounds, with the fruits of those labors finally impacting the big-league rotation in Bailey Ober and Louie Varland.

Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper, Andrew Morris, and Zebby Matthews are a cluster of starting pitching prospects who have moved from Fort Myers to Cedar Rapids, and who comprised the Kernels rotation for the majority of 2023. But, what makes them unique? I dug into some numbers to highlight some of the unique traits and skill sets that have drawn so much attention to this group.

Cory Lewis
Lewis was pre-famous when he was drafted by the Twins in the ninth round in 2023 out of UC Santa Barbara, as he boasted a knuckleball as part of his repertoire, and not merely as a gimmick. It’s worth highlighting a feature that makes Lewis’ knuckleball unique: velocity. 

If, like me, you remember watching Tim Wakefield and R.A. Dickey pitch, they are likely a large part of your schema for what the pitch looks like. Wakefield’s velocity was typically in the high 60s and low 70s. Dickey threw a slower version in the low to mid 70s, and a fast version that reached 83 mph. Lewis routinely throws his knuckleball in the 82-84 mph range and cranked it as high as 87 mph in 2023! There’s an argument to be made that the latter figure might be too hard. The majority of pitches where Lewis achieved minimal spin on the pitch (the desired outcome to maximize variance), were in the 82-84 mph range. 

The graphic below plots spin and tilt for all of Lewis’ offerings. The blue cluster in the center is his knuckleball, with a minimum spin of 120 rpm (compared to a typical fastball, around 2,150 rpm). But how effective was it? He threw 66 that we have tracking data for in 2023. He gave up two hits, and allowed a FIP of -2.14 on the pitch. Hitters are whiffing on the pitch, or hitting it into the ground.

For Lewis, his knuckleball and breaking or offspeed pitches are set up by a fastball with the characteristics to succeed. While Lewis's fastball velocity typically sits 90-92 mph, it can be a weapon. He gets good extension (max 6.71 feet in 2023; the MLB average is around 6.5 feet). Couple this with an induced vertical break that was as high as 24.8 inches (averaging 20.6 inches), and you have a pitch that can perform extremely well at the top of the strike zone. If Lewis can continue to refine his fastball command, it’ll help him mitigate the challenge of moving up to Double A in 2024.

C.J. Culpepper
C.J. Culpepper has risen in the estimation of evaluators, such that he’s joined the group of David Festa, Marco Raya, and Lewis as one of Minnesota’s best pitching prospects and should be considered a borderline top-10 prospect in the system. After strong performances as a reliever at California Baptist and an effective stint in the Cape Cod league, Culpepper went to the Twins in the 13th round. He threw 86 innings in 2023, posting a 2.87 FIP despite wearing down a little at the end of the season at Cedar Rapids.

What stands out about Culpepper is the scope of his pitch mix. He throws two fastballs: a traditional four-seamer with a 90th-percentile velocity of 96 mph; and a two-seamer with a 90th-percentile velocity of 95.8 mph with up to 19 inches of run (averaging 13.4 inches). Culpepper also throws a curveball, slider, changeup, and cutter. Both iterations of Culpepper’s fastball were effective in 2023. While his four-seamer doesn’t get a ton of chase, his two-seamer is a real worm killer, generating a 78% ground ball rate. 

The graphic below plots Culpepper’s pitch mix by vertical and horizontal break. His arsenal allows him diversity of movement (both horizontal, and vertical) that keeps hitters off balance.
 

All of Culpepper's breaking and offspeed pitches showed promising results in 2023, with his slider being the most commonly thrown. In 2024, Culpepper will have to refine the command of his slider in particular, as its sweeping action makes it leak out of the strike zone too often. If his command of his newer offerings improves in 2024, he has the velocity and diversity of arsenal to be another in the line of Twins rotation contributors from the mid-late rounds of the draft.

What are your thoughts on the promising group of pitcher at Cedar Rapids? What are your expectations for 2024? Join the conversation with a comment below.

Research assistance provided by TruMedia

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[sweetmusicviola16]

build em up. we are going to need them.

[IndianaTwin]

Not sure which one's which in the pictures, but for the one on the left, the 'stache was clearly a factor in his success. 

[Fatbat]

Seems like we are finally bringing raw talent in and developing it. Some will leave via trade but what a great asset to have on the farm.  The huge crop of pitchers from the ‘23 draft will be right behind them. If we can trade for an ace this offseason, maybe the next 2 or 3 will come from within. 

[2wins87]

35 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Not sure which one's which in the pictures, but for the one on the left, the 'stache was clearly a factor in his success. 

That's Lewis and Culpepper from left to right.

Culpepper has got a nice Viking flow going on with his hair as well.

Can't be a coincidence.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Wichita is going to be REALLY fun to watch this year. No doubt.

I truly don't know a TON about Morris or Matthews either. Is there a 2nd part of the article coming with a breakdown on their stuff?

 

Thanks Jamie! 

[Blyleven2011]

My thoughts on them is that the 2022 draftees showed  some good promise  ...

Let's hope they continue that promise  and  have great careers ...

I followed them last season in the minors ...

[Jamie Cameron]

34 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Wichita is going to be REALLY fun to watch this year. No doubt.

I truly don't know a TON about Morris or Matthews either. Is there a 2nd part of the article coming with a breakdown on their stuff?

 

Thanks Jamie! 

I think the Cedar Rapids rotation will be split up from spring this year, Lewis and mayyyybe Culpepper in Wichita with Matthews and Morris in CR to start. I am planning on a part two, tentatively if folks enjoyed this one.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I think the Cedar Rapids rotation will be split up from spring this year, Lewis and mayyyybe Culpepper in Wichita with Matthews and Morris in CR to start. I am planning on a part two, tentatively if folks enjoyed this one.

100%^ I enjoyed it. Hook this stuff straight into an IV. It's fantastic!

Unrelated, I want to also see Jeremy's sushi recipe/photos :)

[Otaknam]

Low A and high A are fine, but I’ll pay more attention when they duplicate their success at the much more difficult AA. That will be the challenge for these guys. 

[Dman]

7 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I think the Cedar Rapids rotation will be split up from spring this year, Lewis and mayyyybe Culpepper in Wichita with Matthews and Morris in CR to start. I am planning on a part two, tentatively if folks enjoyed this one.

I agree with the Mayyybe Culpepper.  I know he ran out of gas later in the season but his K9 dropped at High A and he wasn't as consistent as Lewis.  Still Culpepper has a plus fastball and 5 solid pitches to choose from so they could bump him to AA based on that.

I have Jones, Hidalgo, MaCleod, Morris and Matthews already at high A and the Twins picked up Rafael Marcano in the Minor league phase of the Rule V draft who had a good year pitching at High A.  So to me it comes down to if they place Marcano at AA or Culpepper.  Marcano had the better K\9 and ERA pitching all year at the High A level and he is older so assuming he moves to AA with Raya, Ohl, Lewis, Nowlin, Rozak and Adams? Any of Nowlin, Rozak and Adams could be moved to the pen and Ohl could be at AAA but with Dobnak, SWR, Festa, Enlow, and possibly Varland and Headrick at AAA could be tight there too. Will be interesting to see how they mix and match. Who stays healthy through spring might determine what levels some guys start at.

Edit: Forgot Canterino might be a starter at AAA so that makes things even tighter.

[wabene]

9 hours ago, Dman said:

with Dobnak, SWR, Festa, Enlow, and possibly Varland and Headrick at AAA

Enlow is in the Giants organization now. 

[Dman]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

Enlow is in the Giants organization now. 

I missed that transaction.  Thanks for letting me know.  When I saw him he last year he was giving up hard contact, but his WHIP and K rate were good for a starter and AAA pitchers struggled last year so was thinking he just needed a little boost to find somethi8ng to get him to MLB.  As noted lots of arms in AAA and even more headed there so I guess he didn't like his chances in Minnesota.

[nclahammer]

Really nice read with LOTS of good info.   I enjoyed several games down to Cedar Rapids to watch these boys last year and their futures look bright.  I wish them the best and hope to see your insights on Morris and Matthews too.

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, nclahammer said:

Really nice read with LOTS of good info.   I enjoyed several games down to Cedar Rapids to watch these boys last year and their futures look bright.  I wish them the best and hope to see your insights on Morris and Matthews too.

Thanks for reading, appreciate it. There will be a part two next week sometime.

[Guest]

On 1/11/2024 at 1:54 PM, Jamie Cameron said:

I am planning on a part two, tentatively if folks enjoyed this one.

Would really like to see a part two on Morris, and Matthews.