How Does Sonny Gray's Departure Impact the Twins 2024 Draft Bonus Pool?

[Jamie Cameron]

Sonny Gray is reportedly heading to St. Louis on a three-year, $75-million deal with the Cardinals. What is the impact on the Twins' 2024 Draft bonus pool? 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports

The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to finalize a deal with free agent right-hander Sonny Gray today, according to several prominent national reports. Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, it's a three-year pact worth $75 million. While Gray’s departure leaves a significant void in the Twins' 2024 rotation, it also has implications for the 2024 MLB draft. Let’s dig in.

All MLB organizations are entitled to a compensatory pick if a player who received and rejected the qualifying offer signs elsewhere. If the team losing the player is a revenue sharing recipient (the Twins are) and the player signs for more than $50 million, the comp pick awarded falls between the end of the first round and Competitive Balance Round A. The upshot for the Twins will be an additional pick in the 30-40 range, worth anywhere from $2.2-2.7 million. The pick is likely to be 33rd overall, worth approximately $2.5 million in 2023.

This may seem like a relatively small financial boon for the Twins, but it is significant. In 2023, Minnesota had the fifth-largest draft pool, at $14.3 million. In 2024, the Twins will have a significantly smaller figure to play with (although they will receive an additional Competitive Balance pick in either Round A or Round B, situated just before the second or the third round). It’s likely that the additional dollars received from Gray departing for St. Louis will add 15-20 percent to their 2024 bonus pool--all the more significant in a weaker draft class than 2023's. 

Additionally, the Gray compensation pick allows the Twins greater flexibility this offseason with self-imposed payroll limits in mind. Having secured a pick just outside the first round, Minnesota could look to include their Competitive Balance pick in a trade for rotation help. Although such moves remain unusual, they're allowed under the rules, and one or two of those picks typically changes hands each year. A comp pick has value far beyond the dollar amount tied to it, and could sweeten any potential trade as the Twins look to replace Gray's production.

There are a number of as-yet undetermined factors that will finalize the 2024 draft order, including Prospect Promotion Incentive picks, other qualifying-offer comp picks, and teams falling in the draft due to surpassing the third luxury tax threshold. After several strong drafts in recent seasons, the Twins' acquisition of Gray has proven particularly savvy. His impact on the field was significant. His value to the organization will outlive his time in it.

View full article

[FanSince1961]

Quote

After several strong drafts in recent seasons, the Twins' acquisition of Gray has proven particularly savvy. His impact on the field was significant. His value to the organization will outlive his time in it.

Couldn't agree more. It was a pleasure watching Sonny and I wish we could have seen more.  However, I also think St. Louis overpaid and that we saw the best of Gray while he was with the Twins.  It did, however, secure them a solid starter early in free agency.  (As an aside, their signings of Gibson (mediocre) and Lynn (cooked or nearly so) were questionable IMHO.)

[roger]

Appreciated this information, Jamie, Thanks!

[jmlease1]

27 minutes ago, FanSince1961 said:

Couldn't agree more. It was a pleasure watching Sonny and I wish we could have seen more.  However, I also think St. Louis overpaid and that we saw the best of Gray while he was with the Twins.  It did, however, secure them a solid starter early in free agency.  (As an aside, their signings of Gibson (mediocre) and Lynn (cooked or nearly so) were questionable IMHO.)

I thought the Gray signing was pretty decent for StL; they didn't have to put in a 4th year, and while one of those 3 years is likely to not pan out because of age/injury, there's also an excellent chance that he provides surplus value in one or more of those seasons, and they really needed someone legitimate at the top of the rotation, much like the Twins did when we acquired Gray 2 years ago. (I do agree that the Gibson/Lynn signings are questionable) Starting pitching is expensive on the FA market, and even if Gray goes back to being more like a 150 IP guy over the next three years, he's got a very good chance of equaling or exceeding the value of his contract.

That said, the Twins did a nice piece of business with Gray: they needed MLB pitching immediately and got it. They needed a front-line starter while trying to get their rotation and pipeline in order, and they got it. And they're getting a useful draft pick, akin to the one they gave up to get Gray in the first place. No regrets

[DocBauer]

So assuming the Twins qualify for at least a comp B selection in the 2024 draft...and haven't they almost always qualified for either a A or B just about every year?...they would have 4 picks amongst the top 80-ish. That doesn't stink. And while it's not considered a particularly good draft, having those 4 picks might allow the Twins to draft and sign a little top heavy. 

[Blyleven2011]

Sonny got his payday  , did St Louis over pay ... 

They don't think so  and that's fine , they need pitchers , they haven't got much of the rotation left from the start of 2023 ....

I'm sure they want to compete in the division  but they have to play the game , Sonny will give them a chance to win alot of games  , I did like his demeanor  on the mound for the Twins  ...

Lopez was a trade that worked out for both sides , the front office did good even though arraez was a fan favorite  ...

Sonny Gray trade worked out really well and probably  a better trade by the front office because it cost us just  1 first round prospect ,  Sonny pitched 2 seasons  and because Sonny signs elsewhere  we get a draft choice back in compensation round ...

So really the trade on the financial side it was a savvy deal for now , chase petty is climbing the ranks ,,,

Was the front office  wise enough to see that when they made the pick , did they think if gray pitches well we would get a compensation round draft pick  or was it more we need pitchers so they traded chase petty for sonny  ???

[Doctor Wu]

I like the fact that we get the compensatory pick, and that's no small thing. A very nice silver lining after losing a very good pitcher. 

[weitz41]

I'm happy for Gray and Meada. Both earned their new contracts. Sure, I'd hoped one of them would have come back for 2024. Both these trades worked out well. Now add in a comp A pick and even better. It should make for a quality draft having 4 picks in the top 80? 

I'd make a case for trading for someone like Glasnow to do the same next offseason with the comp pick. But I think the budget may make that a non-starter.

[Ski U Mah Gopher]

A Comp A pick would make 3 in the top-50. Even better.

[2wins87]

I believe this draft order is nearly set for the first 3 rounds now.

Currently the Twins' day 1 picks are: 21, 33 (comp for Gray), 61, 71 (comp B), and 99.

I think the last 3 of those picks could move up or down by one depending on who signs Bellinger, but it is otherwise set.

I also tried to calculate where their bonus pool will stack up and I think it'll be 11th highest. 

Day 1 of the draft should be a fun follow the way the picks are spaced out