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The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to finalize a deal with free agent right-hander Sonny Gray today, according to several prominent national reports. Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, it's a three-year pact worth $75 million. While Gray’s departure leaves a significant void in the Twins' 2024 rotation, it also has implications for the 2024 MLB draft. Let’s dig in.
All MLB organizations are entitled to a compensatory pick if a player who received and rejected the qualifying offer signs elsewhere. If the team losing the player is a revenue sharing recipient (the Twins are) and the player signs for more than $50 million, the comp pick awarded falls between the end of the first round and Competitive Balance Round A. The upshot for the Twins will be an additional pick in the 30-40 range, worth anywhere from $2.2-2.7 million. The pick is likely to be 33rd overall, worth approximately $2.5 million in 2023.
This may seem like a relatively small financial boon for the Twins, but it is significant. In 2023, Minnesota had the fifth-largest draft pool, at $14.3 million. In 2024, the Twins will have a significantly smaller figure to play with (although they will receive an additional Competitive Balance pick in either Round A or Round B, situated just before the second or the third round). It’s likely that the additional dollars received from Gray departing for St. Louis will add 15-20 percent to their 2024 bonus pool--all the more significant in a weaker draft class than 2023's.
Additionally, the Gray compensation pick allows the Twins greater flexibility this offseason with self-imposed payroll limits in mind. Having secured a pick just outside the first round, Minnesota could look to include their Competitive Balance pick in a trade for rotation help. Although such moves remain unusual, they're allowed under the rules, and one or two of those picks typically changes hands each year. A comp pick has value far beyond the dollar amount tied to it, and could sweeten any potential trade as the Twins look to replace Gray's production.
There are a number of as-yet undetermined factors that will finalize the 2024 draft order, including Prospect Promotion Incentive picks, other qualifying-offer comp picks, and teams falling in the draft due to surpassing the third luxury tax threshold. After several strong drafts in recent seasons, the Twins' acquisition of Gray has proven particularly savvy. His impact on the field was significant. His value to the organization will outlive his time in it.
Check out our 2026 mock draft board, updated regularly, and with detailed player write-ups!
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