Creating Consistency for 2024

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins 2023 season is hard to look at as anything but a success. With the playoff curse behind them and a new core arriving, they’ll be looking to build on 2023 next year. Consistency on offense should be a priority, but how can they do it?

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins had a good offense in 2023, finishing seventh in all of baseball by OPS and 10th in runs scored. As fans surely remember, they accomplished this by following up a .709 OPS in the first half with a .809 OPS in the second half. Despite this marked improvement and solid overall numbers, consistency always seemed to be lacking to some degree, and this really showed up in the postseason. How might they improve this over the offseason?

Cut The Strikeouts
The Twins set the all-time record for strikeouts in the regular season with 1654. Based on their final offensive numbers for the season, it’s easy to say this wasn’t a major problem, but it was clearly this team’s biggest issue. Far too often did the lineup fall into a rut of hitter after hitter failing to put the ball in play. Based on their strong second half, the hope was that they could overcome this record-setting flaw, but their playoff performance showed that this is a tall task.

True to their offensive identity, the Twins struck out 28 times in their final two postseason games in front of the home crowd, an untenable 52% strikeout rate. It was an offensive formula Twins fans watched plenty often in 2023, and it leaves so little margin for error that fixing it should be priority number one this offseason.

There were rumblings of the scouting approach or overall team philosophy being a problem in the first half that could certainly be tweaked. The front office could also do a better job of the personnel they’re targeting in avoiding the Joey Gallo types this winter. By all accounts, the Twins expected to be top 10 in the league in strikeouts from day one in 2023. They don’t need to model their team after the Cleveland Guardians, but perhaps they should challenge themselves to not have such low expectations in the strikeout category in 2024.

Development of Youth
The Twins were undoubtedly saved by the next offensive core that emerged in 2023. There’s no doubt the offense remains stagnant without the emergence of Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, etc. While prospect development isn’t linear, the Twins have several young players who have flashed their star power and ability to adjust.

Royce Lewis showed strides in plate discipline down the stretch that he’ll hope to build off of, and perhaps a normal offseason and being another year out from ACL surgery keep him healthier for the grind of a full season. Edouard Julien emerged as a postseason star, and his plate discipline and power should only continue to improve as he prepares for a full-time role in 2024. Matt Wallner fell into a deep pit of strikeouts in early September and was able to adjust back in less than a week.

It’s hard to deny that the Twins best hitters were rookies in 2023. If they stay at the same level the Twins will be formidable in 2024. It’s easy to see a scenario where they improve and bring the offense to a whole new level.

New Faces
As always, the departure of several players will bring new additions from the trade and free-agent market. It’s become nearly impossible to predict what this front office has in store, but additions to the outfield and infield are certainly in the cards. Effectively rounding out the roster around the emerging rookies that weren’t yet factors last offseason will be key.

The Twins may see another emergence of youth in 2024 as well. Several young players are on the doorstep of the MLB and will surely make their debuts next season. From the power profile of Yunior Severino, to Austin Martin’s on-base and speed combo , to Brooks Lee’s well-rounded profile making him a top-20 prospect in all of baseball, the Twins have no shortage of candidates to come up and help the team next season.

While the Twins are sure to add to the pitching staff in some fashion, it’s hard to deny that building a more consistent offense should be priority number one in 2024. What the team accomplished with record-breaking strikeout numbers is impressive, and it’s interesting to consider how much more effective the offense can be with a bit more balance. Hopefully, in 2024, Twins Territory will find out.

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[Trov]

The strike outs are a huge issue.  It is part of their game, but I hope going into next year they work a bit more on it.  I know the team wants to hit the ball hard, because that generally is how to best score runs, and in the second half we scored a decent amount of runs, compared to first half.  Rocco pointed out we walked a lot and look for "barrels" because getting on base and hit balling hard is best way to score runs.  

I have a couple of issues with the statement.  One, walking is not the only way to get on base.  I agree they should not just be looking to put the ball in play with weak contact to say, well I did not strike out.  However, strike outs do nothing for the team, the only time you would take a strike out over putting the ball in play is when putting the ball in play results in a double play. 

Really, you can have the best of both worlds.  How I took Rocco's comments was, we would rather go deep into count, getting either a walk or strike out, than put a ball in play early in count with weak contact.  This makes sense, overall, but you can change your 2 strike approach, depending on the situation, to look to put more balls in play. 

Jeffers is one I noticed that with through the year.  After 2 strikes he would choke up, as we did as kids, and look to hit the ball to right field, letting the fastball travel more.  So with less than 2 strikes he was looking for a good pitch to hit and will take pitches he would not want to.  Then after 2 strikes he would say well now lets try to not strike out.  

If more of the team would have that type of approach I think it would help.  What will also help is the robo ump or at min the challenge system.  Julien had so many strike outs on called third strikes on inside pitches.  The box would say it was inside but he would get rung.  Sometimes they were strikes too, but it gets frustrating when a guy takes a ball that is called a strike no matter the count.  Of course for strike 3 versus ball 4 is the worst, but even for a strike 1, it changes how the rest of the at bat is played out. 

[Whitey333]

The strikeout issue is huge.  The FO and managers philosophy of swinging for the fences at all times to me is greatly flawed, especially with two strikes and runners on base.  Hitting the ball someplace at least gives you a chance to move the runners.  Striking out does nothing.  It also adds to the boredom of Twins games.  Too many at bats with nothing produced.  But hearing Falvey continually backing and praising this approach is frustrating.  Why can't we have both?  

[JD-TWINS]

Taylor had 130 K’s - 37% of AB’s

Gallo had 142 K’s - 51% of AB’s

Larnach had 72 K’s - 39%

Buxton had 109 K’s - 36%
 

That’s 455 K’s between 4 guys………3 of which have a shot to not be on the club going forward. The % is the really alarming number.
 

Julien had 128 K’s - 38%
 

Wallner had 80 K’s - 38%
 

Gotta get the numbers into the sub 30% range and we’d be markedly better!!

[tony&rodney]

Twins fans need to live with whatever roster management puts on the field. It isn't always ideal. The Twins strike out a bunch and they also are an average to below average team defensively. The makeup of the roster leans to offense, so there should be more consistency and better production going forward.

The current roster is chock full of guys who strike out quite a bit. The three rookies (Julien, Lewis, & Wallner) all K a ton. There may be some thought put forth on making contact with two strikes. We see other players rip until they get to two strikes and then manage the bat for contact. Altuve comes to mind. Easier said than done though. The positive part of the rookies is that they seem to be decent at working the count, especially Julien. Perhaps it just is that the players could be a little bit more aggressive on pitches in the zone with hitting swings as opposed to over-swinging. These are skills that players practice.

The Ks may be a feature of the team again next year because of the players on the roster. Only Julien managed a reasonable K:BB ratio this past season. All of Correa, Kepler, and Polanco have done better in their careers. So there is plenty of room for improvement in the area of batters striking out. Let's hope the walks and hits go up and the Ks go down next season.

[Blyleven2011]

There is never a sure thing with this FO  , to add quality is a must , stay away from dumpster diving as they continue to scan the waiver wire to frequently ...

Impressive on what they accomplished with the record strikeouts ....

The strikeouts sucked and the strikouts looking were alot worse especially when we had runners in scoring position ....

Adjustments need to be made  , the hitters just don't seem to follow through with adjustments with 2 strikes , identifying  a pitch that will end up way off the plate swinging at s8trike 3 , and not swinging at to close for comfort pitches and making contact putting ball in play and standing there looking at strike 3 passing them buy...

We need professional hitters for more consistency  , plain and simple  ...

In my opinion  the Twins lack a true homerun hitter and a producer of 100 rbi's  or even a player scoring a 100 runs  ...

We lose by scoring only 3 runs or less but win when we close to double digits and that is why the Twins rank high in runs scored and are a 500 team ...

That is why if they don't change there consistency  they will be a 500 team again ...

We need professional hitters and we need them to be clutch  , we need a different approach  pure and simple ...

[Karbo]

49 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Twins fans need to live with whatever roster management puts on the field. It isn't always ideal. The Twins strike out a bunch and they also are an average to below average team defensively. The makeup of the roster leans to offense, so there should be more consistency and better production going forward.

The current roster is chock full of guys who strike out quite a bit. The three rookies (Julien, Lewis, & Wallner) all K a ton. There may be some thought put forth on making contact with two strikes. We see other players rip until they get to two strikes and then manage the bat for contact. Altuve comes to mind. Easier said than done though. The positive part of the rookies is that they seem to be decent at working the count, especially Julien. Perhaps it just is that the players could be a little bit more aggressive on pitches in the zone with hitting swings as opposed to over-swinging. These are skills that players practice.

The Ks may be a feature of the team again next year because of the players on the roster. Only Julien managed a reasonable K:BB ratio this past season. All of Correa, Kepler, and Polanco have done better in their careers. So there is plenty of room for improvement in the area of batters striking out. Let's hope the walks and hits go up and the Ks go down next season.

I have hope that experience will help the rookies become better at knowing the strike zone. As far as the umps go, well that's another story for another time.

[arby58]

I appreciate that the author provides some balance to the 'to be or not to be' discussion around strike outs. It is worth noting that the two teams that had the most strike outs, Minnesota and Seattle, scored far more runs than the two teams with the least strikeouts, Cleveland and Washington. A good offense that doesn't strike out a lot can also be shut down and look pretty lame - Houston's 2-0 loss to Texas last night is an example. In the regular season, Houston was 5th in runs scored and had the 3rd fewest strikeouts. 

Some players are, based on what they are trying to do, going to strike out a lot. Wallner, for example, is going to rocket a fair number of balls out of the ballpark. In that respect, he is following in a long line of power hitters. 

47 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Taylor had 130 K’s - 37% of AB’s

Gallo had 142 K’s - 51% of AB’s

Larnach had 72 K’s - 39%

Buxton had 109 K’s - 36%
 

That’s 455 K’s between 4 guys………3 of which have a shot to not be on the club going forward. The % is the really alarming number.
 

Julien had 128 K’s - 38%
 

Wallner had 80 K’s - 38%
 

Gotta get the numbers into the sub 30% range and we’d be markedly better!!

Strikeouts as a percentage of at bats is not the most useful calculation. At bats needs to be replaced by plate appearances, because walks, being hit by a pitch, and sacrifice flies do not count as at bats.

For a player like Julien, who walks a lot, it makes a material difference. Julien had 338 at bats but 408 plate appearances. His percentage of strike outs based on plate appearances was 31% - quite a bit different than 38%. Wallner takes walks AND gets hit by a pitch more than most. He had 254 plate appearances, and his strike out percentage based on that was also 31%.

 

 

[Karbo]

They should all look at what Jeffers did this year with 2 strikes. He still lets it rip until he has 2 strikes but he has the best 2 strike approach on the team. Getting rid of Gallo will help. Maybe Correa getting healthy will too. After that it's as simple as slightly altering the approach. The experience the 3 rookies got this year should help also. It's early in the career for the rookies, but I could see both Lewis and Wallner being capable of driving in 100 and Wallner could hit 40 HR's. It isn't hard to imagine Julian scoring 100 if he gets some clutch hitting behind him. IMO he should work on stealing bases more.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Taylor had 130 K’s - 37% of AB’s

Gallo had 142 K’s - 51% of AB’s

Larnach had 72 K’s - 39%

Buxton had 109 K’s - 36%
 

That’s 455 K’s between 4 guys………3 of which have a shot to not be on the club going forward. The % is the really alarming number.
 

Julien had 128 K’s - 38%
 

Wallner had 80 K’s - 38%
 

Gotta get the numbers into the sub 30% range and we’d be markedly better!!

This is what makes reducing Ks so tough. Julien and Wallner are likely to be the two biggest compilers on the 2024 roster. (I'm willing to write off Buxton's K% as a mirage caused by injuries he should not have been playing thru)

Do you look to trade one of them? Julien certainly seems to have a skill set that can be effective with less strikeouts.

I'm not so sure about Wallner. He has had a huge K% his entire professional career and is likely the reason the FO took so long to promote him to The Show in both 2022 & 2023. The Mariners or Marlins would likely offer up a solid SP with team control for Wallner if we want to entertain the notion.

[T.O.]

Always or almost always swinging for a home run will produce a lot of strike outs. That may win games against sub par teams and against the best teams, like Houston, when they falter during the season but against the best teams in post season, like Houston, who seem to pull it together when they need to, the Twins will be the loser.  The Twins are not in the same league (no pun) as the best teams and never well be as long as the FO approves this approach.
Maybe a little Cleveland and and little (or lot) Minnesota would do it. But I don't think we are headed there.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

I'm not so sure about Wallner. He has had a huge K% his entire professional career and is likely the reason the FO took so long to promote him to The Show in both 2022 & 2023. The Mariners or Marlins would likely offer up a solid SP with team control for Wallner if we want to entertain the notion.

If the K issue is so compelling for Wallner, why on earth would either team take him in return for 'a solid SP with team control?' Certainly not the Mariners, who have plenty of offense (and also strike out nearly as much as the Twins). Wallner showed a nice flash in the second half, but he is still largely unproven - not the kind of player who will get you a 'solid SP with team control.'

[RpR]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

If the K issue is so compelling for Wallner, why on earth would either team take him in return for 'a solid SP with team control?' Certainly not the Mariners, who have plenty of offense (and also strike out nearly as much as the Twins). Wallner showed a nice flash in the second half, but he is still largely unproven - not the kind of player who will get you a 'solid SP with team control.'

Future Joey Gallo.

[jmlease1]

Cutting down on the Ks is the easiest and most simplistic answer. Getting more consistency in the team's offense will likely take more than that, but subtracting Joey Gallo from the lineup probably won't hurt.

Better health would go a long ways: a healthier Buxton & Correa are both likely to hit for higher averages next season, even if both are still likely to have a big chunk of strikeouts as part of their stat lines. More time from Polanco & Lewis will step the averages up as well.

Jeffers had an excellent season, but there's also a real likelihood of regression on his part (that BABIP suggests he got a little lucky in addition to his good work). He could be a contender to actually K more.

Replacing Michael A. Taylor with Austin Martin could make an impact as well; Martin is definitely a higher contact hitter and less K-prone, but presuming he'll do well in his first tastes of MLB might be putting the cart before the horse.

Despite all the Ks, the Twins still finished the season 10th in MLB in OPS+. The team did fairly well in baserunning last season, but has room to grow with Lewis & Julien being on the team from Day One and also getting more opportunities, along with better health from someone like Buxton. More stolen bases and taking some extra bases while still maintaining their quality success rates will also help keep runs flowing next season. Julien has shown real ability to swipe a bag in the past, and Royce certainly has the wheels for it.

A little more focus on situational hitting, a little better health, running a bit more, no more Gallo...the Twins will likely still K more than some folks find acceptable, but they should also do a little better overall offensively. they were pretty strong in the second half of the season and no one that's expected to be a significant offensive contributor returning should be looking at immediate age-related regression/fall-off.

[Minny505]

29 minutes ago, arby58 said:

If the K issue is so compelling for Wallner, why on earth would either team take him in return for 'a solid SP with team control?' Certainly not the Mariners, who have plenty of offense (and also strike out nearly as much as the Twins). Wallner showed a nice flash in the second half, but he is still largely unproven - not the kind of player who will get you a 'solid SP with team control.'

The Mariners were rumored to be dangling an SP at the deadline for an offensive upgrade. They will be looking to add a COF bat this season as their in-house guys, other than Kelenic, all had a much higher K% than Wallner, without anywhere near the production.

Wallner, thru 319 PAs in MLB over the last two seasons, has a wRC+ of 135 and will be entering his age 26 season. Of all COFs in MLB in 2023 with min 250 PAs, Wallner had the 6th best wRC+ and xwOBA. You don't think that combination of factors carries a lot of trade value?

FWIW, I don't think the Twins should trade him. He may lead the team in OPS in 2024. But I'd be open to the possibility of selling high on him and seeing what he can bring back.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Future Joey Gallo.

Maybe, but doubtful. Gallo came into the league in a lower K% environment and was already K'ing in roughly 36% of his PAs. 

Wallner's 32% K% is a far cry from that. So is his 12% BB%. He's just not nearly the 3-true-outcomes player Gallo was/is.

I think a much better offensive comp would be a future Brandon Belt.

 

[arby58]

51 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Wallner, thru 319 PAs in MLB over the last two seasons, has a wRC+ of 135 and will be entering his age 26 season. Of all COFs in MLB in 2023 with min 250 PAs, Wallner had the 6th best wRC+ and xwOBA. You don't think that combination of factors carries a lot of trade value?

I'd be interested in comparable trades - where a team gives up a solid starting pitcher with team control for a corner outfielder with somewhere around 300 plate appearances. Given the value placed on starting pitching, this sounds far-fetched. I'm thinking back on what it took to get Maehle from the Reds, and he didn't have that much team control and came with injury concerns.

[MGM4706]

By keeping the Batting Coach the Twins showed they are not really serious about taking the next step. Rocco  gets to keep his Country Club together and the strike-out will just be shrugged off again.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

I appreciate that the author provides some balance to the 'to be or not to be' discussion around strike outs. It is worth noting that the two teams that had the most strike outs, Minnesota and Seattle, scored far more runs than the two teams with the least strikeouts, Cleveland and Washington. A good offense that doesn't strike out a lot can also be shut down and look pretty lame - Houston's 2-0 loss to Texas last night is an example. In the regular season, Houston was 5th in runs scored and had the 3rd fewest strikeouts. 

Some players are, based on what they are trying to do, going to strike out a lot. Wallner, for example, is going to rocket a fair number of balls out of the ballpark. In that respect, he is following in a long line of power hitters. 

Strikeouts as a percentage of at bats is not the most useful calculation. At bats needs to be replaced by plate appearances, because walks, being hit by a pitch, and sacrifice flies do not count as at bats.

For a player like Julien, who walks a lot, it makes a material difference. Julien had 338 at bats but 408 plate appearances. His percentage of strike outs based on plate appearances was 31% - quite a bit different than 38%. Wallner takes walks AND gets hit by a pitch more than most. He had 254 plate appearances, and his strike out percentage based on that was also 31%.

 

 

Therefore, everyone else’s strikeout % would be lowered due to walks - sacrifices - errors - etc. I get it - been watching baseball for 55 years. Bottom line is that the Twins lead baseball in strikeouts. Must be reduced. I did put K totals next to the % so it’s easy to see the % for the individual of the Team’s whole total. We can debate whether acceptable level of % is 30% or 28% or 25%. We strike out way too much as a group and the shiny rookies that have better OBP are part of the problem as well, regardless of how many walks they draw or how many HBP they have.

If I see Julien strike out looking, routinely taking pitches as if he’s Ted Williams, again next year I’ll have to start writing him personally. I realize his OBP is elite but he still doesn’t put the ball in play enough when making outs.

Wallner has two big holes to attack in the zone (up & in ….. down & away) - and then, in his not big hole areas in the rest of the zone, he strikes out at a normal rate. Too many empty results in his PLATE APPEARANCES.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Therefore, everyone else’s strikeout % would be lowered due to walks - sacrifices - errors - etc. I get it - been watching baseball for 55 years.

It's not trivial - not everybody's rate will go down the same, because there are players who take very few walks (and that is the predominant plate appearance that does not show up in at bats). If you're going to use a statistic, it's better to use one that is more precise in expressing what it means. Strike outs per plate appearance is far superior to per at bat.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Minny505 said:

This is what makes reducing Ks so tough. Julien and Wallner are likely to be the two biggest compilers on the 2024 roster. (I'm willing to write off Buxton's K% as a mirage caused by injuries he should not have been playing thru)

Do you look to trade one of them? Julien certainly seems to have a skill set that can be effective with less strikeouts.

I'm not so sure about Wallner. He has had a huge K% his entire professional career and is likely the reason the FO took so long to promote him to The Show in both 2022 & 2023. The Mariners or Marlins would likely offer up a solid SP with team control for Wallner if we want to entertain the notion.

We traded Luis Arraez for a Marlin’s starter last year. Alcantara is out with Tommy John for ‘24. Luzardo is now their Ace. The skinny rookie phenom isn’t up to be traded! Who would trade a solid pitcher, Marlins or Mariners for Wallner????

I’d trade Wallner - Miranda - Sands    ……….maybe be we get a 4th and starter for that group? I like Wallner - with another year of outfield refinement

[Minny505]

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

We traded Luis Arraez for a Marlin’s starter last year. Alcantara is out with Tommy John for ‘24. Luzardo is now their Ace. The skinny rookie phenom isn’t up to be traded! Who would trade a solid pitcher, Marlins or Mariners for Wallner????

This is precisely what I'm talking about. Wallner, with 5 years of team control, has roughly the same value in the trade market as Arraez did a year ago, when he had 3 years of control. A little less. A trade for an SP like (pre-2023)Lopez for Wallner seems feasible, we just probably couldn't get the two prospects thrown in. 

[stringer bell]

K/PA% is the best way to look at the strikeout problem. For example, Taylor walked much less than Julien or Wallner. The Twins struck out a ton, including veterans with track records of better results (Farmer, Solano, Vázquez), so maybe some blame goes on coaching or hitting philosophy. 
 

The second-year players might improve their K percentages with further experience and adding an Austin Martin for Taylor or Miranda for Gallo would improve the numbers some, but strikeouts will doubtless continue to be a problem. 
 

If the Twins can produce as they did post All-Star break, the high strikeout numbers would be acceptable. 
 

 

[tony&rodney]

Expect improvement from both this year's rookie group and from the vets like Correa, Kepler, Polanco, and Buxton. Jeffers surely needs to improve his K:BB rate too. As mentioned, replacing  Gallo and Taylor will also help reduce the strike outs. I believe the offense will be improved next season.