Creating Consistency for 2024

The strike outs are a huge issue.  It is part of their game, but I hope going into next year they work a bit more on it.  I know the team wants to hit the ball hard, because that generally is how to best score runs, and in the second half we scored a decent amount of runs, compared to first half.  Rocco pointed out we walked a lot and look for "barrels" because getting on base and hit balling hard is best way to score runs.  

I have a couple of issues with the statement.  One, walking is not the only way to get on base.  I agree they should not just be looking to put the ball in play with weak contact to say, well I did not strike out.  However, strike outs do nothing for the team, the only time you would take a strike out over putting the ball in play is when putting the ball in play results in a double play. 

Really, you can have the best of both worlds.  How I took Rocco's comments was, we would rather go deep into count, getting either a walk or strike out, than put a ball in play early in count with weak contact.  This makes sense, overall, but you can change your 2 strike approach, depending on the situation, to look to put more balls in play. 

Jeffers is one I noticed that with through the year.  After 2 strikes he would choke up, as we did as kids, and look to hit the ball to right field, letting the fastball travel more.  So with less than 2 strikes he was looking for a good pitch to hit and will take pitches he would not want to.  Then after 2 strikes he would say well now lets try to not strike out.  

If more of the team would have that type of approach I think it would help.  What will also help is the robo ump or at min the challenge system.  Julien had so many strike outs on called third strikes on inside pitches.  The box would say it was inside but he would get rung.  Sometimes they were strikes too, but it gets frustrating when a guy takes a ball that is called a strike no matter the count.  Of course for strike 3 versus ball 4 is the worst, but even for a strike 1, it changes how the rest of the at bat is played out. 

The strikeout issue is huge.  The FO and managers philosophy of swinging for the fences at all times to me is greatly flawed, especially with two strikes and runners on base.  Hitting the ball someplace at least gives you a chance to move the runners.  Striking out does nothing.  It also adds to the boredom of Twins games.  Too many at bats with nothing produced.  But hearing Falvey continually backing and praising this approach is frustrating.  Why can't we have both?  

Twins fans need to live with whatever roster management puts on the field. It isn't always ideal. The Twins strike out a bunch and they also are an average to below average team defensively. The makeup of the roster leans to offense, so there should be more consistency and better production going forward.

The current roster is chock full of guys who strike out quite a bit. The three rookies (Julien, Lewis, & Wallner) all K a ton. There may be some thought put forth on making contact with two strikes. We see other players rip until they get to two strikes and then manage the bat for contact. Altuve comes to mind. Easier said than done though. The positive part of the rookies is that they seem to be decent at working the count, especially Julien. Perhaps it just is that the players could be a little bit more aggressive on pitches in the zone with hitting swings as opposed to over-swinging. These are skills that players practice.

The Ks may be a feature of the team again next year because of the players on the roster. Only Julien managed a reasonable K:BB ratio this past season. All of Correa, Kepler, and Polanco have done better in their careers. So there is plenty of room for improvement in the area of batters striking out. Let's hope the walks and hits go up and the Ks go down next season.

There is never a sure thing with this FO  , to add quality is a must , stay away from dumpster diving as they continue to scan the waiver wire to frequently ...

Impressive on what they accomplished with the record strikeouts ....

The strikeouts sucked and the strikouts looking were alot worse especially when we had runners in scoring position ....

Adjustments need to be made  , the hitters just don't seem to follow through with adjustments with 2 strikes , identifying  a pitch that will end up way off the plate swinging at s8trike 3 , and not swinging at to close for comfort pitches and making contact putting ball in play and standing there looking at strike 3 passing them buy...

We need professional hitters for more consistency  , plain and simple  ...

In my opinion  the Twins lack a true homerun hitter and a producer of 100 rbi's  or even a player scoring a 100 runs  ...

We lose by scoring only 3 runs or less but win when we close to double digits and that is why the Twins rank high in runs scored and are a 500 team ...

That is why if they don't change there consistency  they will be a 500 team again ...

We need professional hitters and we need them to be clutch  , we need a different approach  pure and simple ...

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Taylor had 130 K’s - 37% of AB’s

Gallo had 142 K’s - 51% of AB’s

Larnach had 72 K’s - 39%

Buxton had 109 K’s - 36%
 

That’s 455 K’s between 4 guys………3 of which have a shot to not be on the club going forward. The % is the really alarming number.
 

Julien had 128 K’s - 38%
 

Wallner had 80 K’s - 38%
 

Gotta get the numbers into the sub 30% range and we’d be markedly better!!

This is what makes reducing Ks so tough. Julien and Wallner are likely to be the two biggest compilers on the 2024 roster. (I'm willing to write off Buxton's K% as a mirage caused by injuries he should not have been playing thru)

Do you look to trade one of them? Julien certainly seems to have a skill set that can be effective with less strikeouts.

I'm not so sure about Wallner. He has had a huge K% his entire professional career and is likely the reason the FO took so long to promote him to The Show in both 2022 & 2023. The Mariners or Marlins would likely offer up a solid SP with team control for Wallner if we want to entertain the notion.

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

If the K issue is so compelling for Wallner, why on earth would either team take him in return for 'a solid SP with team control?' Certainly not the Mariners, who have plenty of offense (and also strike out nearly as much as the Twins). Wallner showed a nice flash in the second half, but he is still largely unproven - not the kind of player who will get you a 'solid SP with team control.'

Future Joey Gallo.

Cutting down on the Ks is the easiest and most simplistic answer. Getting more consistency in the team's offense will likely take more than that, but subtracting Joey Gallo from the lineup probably won't hurt.

Better health would go a long ways: a healthier Buxton & Correa are both likely to hit for higher averages next season, even if both are still likely to have a big chunk of strikeouts as part of their stat lines. More time from Polanco & Lewis will step the averages up as well.

Jeffers had an excellent season, but there's also a real likelihood of regression on his part (that BABIP suggests he got a little lucky in addition to his good work). He could be a contender to actually K more.

Replacing Michael A. Taylor with Austin Martin could make an impact as well; Martin is definitely a higher contact hitter and less K-prone, but presuming he'll do well in his first tastes of MLB might be putting the cart before the horse.

Despite all the Ks, the Twins still finished the season 10th in MLB in OPS+. The team did fairly well in baserunning last season, but has room to grow with Lewis & Julien being on the team from Day One and also getting more opportunities, along with better health from someone like Buxton. More stolen bases and taking some extra bases while still maintaining their quality success rates will also help keep runs flowing next season. Julien has shown real ability to swipe a bag in the past, and Royce certainly has the wheels for it.

A little more focus on situational hitting, a little better health, running a bit more, no more Gallo...the Twins will likely still K more than some folks find acceptable, but they should also do a little better overall offensively. they were pretty strong in the second half of the season and no one that's expected to be a significant offensive contributor returning should be looking at immediate age-related regression/fall-off.

29 minutes ago, arby58 said:

If the K issue is so compelling for Wallner, why on earth would either team take him in return for 'a solid SP with team control?' Certainly not the Mariners, who have plenty of offense (and also strike out nearly as much as the Twins). Wallner showed a nice flash in the second half, but he is still largely unproven - not the kind of player who will get you a 'solid SP with team control.'

The Mariners were rumored to be dangling an SP at the deadline for an offensive upgrade. They will be looking to add a COF bat this season as their in-house guys, other than Kelenic, all had a much higher K% than Wallner, without anywhere near the production.

Wallner, thru 319 PAs in MLB over the last two seasons, has a wRC+ of 135 and will be entering his age 26 season. Of all COFs in MLB in 2023 with min 250 PAs, Wallner had the 6th best wRC+ and xwOBA. You don't think that combination of factors carries a lot of trade value?

FWIW, I don't think the Twins should trade him. He may lead the team in OPS in 2024. But I'd be open to the possibility of selling high on him and seeing what he can bring back.

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Future Joey Gallo.

Maybe, but doubtful. Gallo came into the league in a lower K% environment and was already K'ing in roughly 36% of his PAs. 

Wallner's 32% K% is a far cry from that. So is his 12% BB%. He's just not nearly the 3-true-outcomes player Gallo was/is.

I think a much better offensive comp would be a future Brandon Belt.

By keeping the Batting Coach the Twins showed they are not really serious about taking the next step. Rocco  gets to keep his Country Club together and the strike-out will just be shrugged off again.

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

We traded Luis Arraez for a Marlin’s starter last year. Alcantara is out with Tommy John for ‘24. Luzardo is now their Ace. The skinny rookie phenom isn’t up to be traded! Who would trade a solid pitcher, Marlins or Mariners for Wallner????

This is precisely what I'm talking about. Wallner, with 5 years of team control, has roughly the same value in the trade market as Arraez did a year ago, when he had 3 years of control. A little less. A trade for an SP like (pre-2023)Lopez for Wallner seems feasible, we just probably couldn't get the two prospects thrown in. 

Expect improvement from both this year's rookie group and from the vets like Correa, Kepler, Polanco, and Buxton. Jeffers surely needs to improve his K:BB rate too. As mentioned, replacing  Gallo and Taylor will also help reduce the strike outs. I believe the offense will be improved next season.