Chris Paddack Steadied Game 4. Can He Steady the Rotation in 2024?

[Nate Palmer]

After a long road back from Tommy John surgery, Chris Paddack steadied the Twins in Game 4 against the Houston Astros. Will he be able to provide a similar presence for the rotation in 2024?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

In the early days of the 2023 season, during spring training at the Minnesota Twins complex in Fort Myers, Florida, a 6’5” figure could be seen walking. Walking with a weighted vest on. Around the parking area and on the field pregame. Walking and certainly itching to be ready to throw once again. 

That figure was Twins pitcher Chris Paddack. At that point, Paddack was still recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. Certainly, he wanted to nail his recovery so that he would not be taken out of action for a similar time frame again. To be able to spend 2024 Spring Training ramping up his workload to get ready to start for the Twins instead of reaching for that glimmer of hope that he might be able to do something at the end of the season as his 2023 went. 

For Paddack and the Twins, that slice of being able to compete was realized at the end of this season but came into a larger view during the playoffs. Paddack prepared himself and delivered when the Twins needed him to. No time bigger than in Game 4 against the Houston Astros, unfortunately, a game that we now know would ultimately eliminate the Twins from World Series contention.  

Paddack entered the game in the fourth inning where just two batters previously Jose Abreu took Caleb Thielbar deep to break the 1-1 tie. Now facing a 3-1 deficit, Paddack came on to face Chas McCormick and try to steady the ship. After giving up a single to McCormick, Paddack was able to calm what must have felt like a Titantic-sized ship. 

Paddack would finish out the fourth and go three up, three down in both the fifth and the sixth innings, which included striking out in order Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. At a quick glance, it was a mere 29 pitches of 2 1/3 innings, but those pitches were very valuable in keeping the Twins in the game and not allowing the Astros to cause more damage. 

On a night when so much would go wrong, Paddack went right. At the same time, others like Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien would give glimpses of hope for the offense in 2024. Paddack can give that same sort of hope for the pitching staff. We, as fans, must remember that we are a season removed from Paddack being a piece of the Taylor Rogers trade. If healthy, he certainly could have changed our opinion of that trade significantly based on his start to 2022. 

Chris Paddack only made five starts, but those five starts left an impact on a struggling starting staff. His five starts fell slightly shy of accounting for a full win above replacement at 0.9 fWAR. A fWAR total that would lead the team in that metric well beyond him being injured and shut down. His actual ERA may at first seem like it could be more impressive at 4.03 but out of qualified starters would have been top-30. Paddack's expected ERA of 3.10 certainly jumps off the page and is something to be optimistic about.

Not to mention, if the Twins can find something to boost Paddack’s performance, we could see a bit more from him. As a reliever, he saw an over 14 K/9 after putting up a 8.1 K/9 in 2022 and a 8.2 K/9 in 2021 as a starter. Even some marginal improvements for a now healthy Paddack could help the Twins round out a rotation looking at the strong possibility of losing one of their leaders in Sonny Gray. 

Of course, every team is chasing that sort of improvement from middle or back-of-rotation starters. As Twins fans, we are believers after seeing what happened when Lopez added a sweeper into his repertoire. Can the Twins catch lightning in a bottle a second time? Only time will tell. What we do know is that reportedly Derek Falvey was optimistic postgame. 

How do you feel about Paddack’s performance and future? Is it enough to cover for a rotation without Gray if he signs a deal elsewhere, or do the Twins need to continue and explore another addition?  

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[roger]

Fantastic seeing him throw at the end of the season.  No question he will be in the Twins 2024 rotation.  Only questions are in which slot and how many innings will he be able to throw next season?

Can he replace Gray as our #2?  Or is he more likely a #3 or #4?  Will he need a couple trips to the IL to rest his arm, kind of like Ober this year?  Expect he will which is why I would like to see Varland begin the season in St. Paul as the #6 starter.  That would make him available to fill in for Paddack when he needs a blow and Ober, or any other starter, should they need that two week refresher.

[LewFordLives]

He has shown he can be an effective bullpen arm, but after two elbow surgeries can he maintain his velocity and control over 30 starts and 150+ innings? I'm rooting for him, but the Twins better have a plan B.

[JD-TWINS]

He sure seems to be a competitor out there on the mound - exciting to see! He’s got good stuff……rebuilt arms seem to hold up well (his 2nd time around) but with Paddack’s history there’s reason to be anxious. I would think that with Varland, we can get through the season giving each starter 2-3 week break at some point as needed.

I like & respect Sonny Gray! Have no problem with re-signing him!! However, if we went 10-17 in games Gray started (probably missing a couple starts) one would have to think that Varland could get that many wins with a similar win % - right?

Paddack should be able to get to .500 in his starts - right?

With Ober - Ryan - Lopez - ……maybe Maeda re-signed - Varland it seems we have plenty of depth. We could seriously shift our full efforts on adding a bat if we vacate Gray - Mahle - Gallo - Polanco salaries ……that’s $45M from ‘23 to look around with.

If things go a bit sideways, we could potentially pick up an arm at the deadline.

Need an impact bat - maybe Lee can grow into this or maybe Buxton is all healed up but we can’t go into playoffs w/o some attempt to improve our offense.

[Brandon]

The real question is what is his innings limit range for next season?  Will he be in the 110-120 range or 140-160 range? I would think 120 would be his cap.  So the real question is what do the Twins do with the other innings?

and will the Twins get a new. TV deal soon?  They had one of the worst contracts so Ballys had to be making money on them.  If the Twins can get that sorted out and soon,  Gray may be in play for a return.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I like & respect Sonny Gray! Have no problem with re-signing him!! However, if we went 10-17 in games Gray started (probably missing a couple starts) one would have to think that Varland could get that many wins with a similar win % - right?

Paddack should be able to get to .500 in his starts - right?

We must've been watching a different pitcher if you're suggesting that the Twins W/L record in Gray starts was remotely reflective of his regular season performance, or that Varland can replace him without the rotation skipping a beat.  

[mikelink45]

I don't know - this is the proverbial SSS.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

The real question is what is his innings limit range for next season?  Will he be in the 110-120 range or 140-160 range? I would think 120 would be his cap.  So the real question is what do the Twins do with the other innings?

and will the Twins get a new. TV deal soon?  They had one of the worst contracts so Ballys had to be making money on them.  If the Twins can get that sorted out and soon,  Gray may be in play for a return.

Well, the Astros limited Verlander to 175 innings after his. The studies show no need for a pitch limit

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, roger said:

Fantastic seeing him throw at the end of the season.  No question he will be in the Twins 2024 rotation.  Only questions are in which slot and how many innings will he be able to throw next season?

Can he replace Gray as our #2?  Or is he more likely a #3 or #4?  Will he need a couple trips to the IL to rest his arm, kind of like Ober this year?  Expect he will which is why I would like to see Varland begin the season in St. Paul as the #6 starter.  That would make him available to fill in for Paddack when he needs a blow and Ober, or any other starter, should they need that two week refresher.

If you're into ratings and considered Pablo a 1A and Sonny a 1B, if Paddack could perform at a 2A level (with Ryan, Maeda, Ober/Varland) that would be a rotation only a tad less impressive than this year's. If Ryan or Varland stes up, maybe just as good. If Pablo or Maeda drops off, a bit less.

Add a quality free agent (an Ed. Rodriguez from Detroit type) and Paddack is your three.. that's good stuff there!

[Blyleven2011]

Nice to see paddack healthy  and pitching well in the same sample size at end-of season and playoffs  ...

He's got fire in him  , now he should have the confidence to get ready for spring training  and the 2024 season  ..

You could just see it  , he's hungry to pitch ...

 

[Karbo]

IMO it all depends on if they re-sign Gray. If they do Paddack is #3, if not probably #2. Woudn't mind seeing Varland in the pen.

[Doctor Wu]

I'm cautiously optimistic about Paddack going into next season. It was cool to see him finally pitch the final couple of weeks, and he looked great during his short time in the playoffs. Having him in the bullpen was a nice post-season bonus, but I definitely see him as a starter next season. And if both Gray and Maeda are gone we will need that extra arm. 

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, old nurse said:

Well, the Astros limited Verlander to 175 innings after his. The studies show no need for a pitch limit

Verlander is an outlier in pretty much every sense. What's the average pitcher capable of?

[AlGoreRythm]

I don't believe Gray or Maeda will be in a Twins uniform in '24. Gray will get paid in FA for the first time and Maeda is 35-36 and IMO not worth the $10-20M it will likely take to sign him. If we could bring him back on another incentive heavy $3-4M contract, I'd go for it, but I expect he'll want guaranteed money.

That leaves the rotation as Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland.

IMO a #2-3 starter is needed to fill out that group and push Varland to AAA to start the season.

This off-season I'd kick the tires on Luis Severino, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery, and if Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman opt out, I'd also add them to the list.

Figure out who you can sign on a 2-3 year deal while still looking for a right handed OF bat.

Otherwise it's time to trade from the older core to bring in younger controllable pitching, similar to the Arraez for Lopez trade last season, but this time with either Kepler or Polanco, who I believe are both on expiring deals in '24.

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, AlGoreRythm said:

I don't believe Gray or Maeda will be in a Twins uniform in '24. Gray will get paid in FA for the first time and Maeda is 35-36 and IMO not worth the $10-20M it will likely take to sign him. If we could bring him back on another incentive heavy $3-4M contract, I'd go for it, but I expect he'll want guaranteed money.

That leaves the rotation as Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland.

IMO a #2-3 starter is needed to fill out that group and push Varland to AAA to start the season.

This off-season I'd kick the tires on Luis Severino, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery, and if Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman opt out, I'd also add them to the list.

Figure out who you can sign on a 2-3 year deal while still looking for a right handed OF bat.

Otherwise it's time to trade from the older core to bring in younger controllable pitching, similar to the Arraez for Lopez trade last season, but this time with either Kepler or Polanco, who I believe are both in expiring deals in '24.

Stroman scares the crap out of me the same way Dylan Bundy used to. Seriously the more I think about it doing whatever we can to get Eduardo Rodriguez from probably our best competition in 2024 makes so much sense.

[Blyleven2011]

8 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Stroman scares the crap out of me the same way Dylan Bundy used to. Seriously the more I think about it doing whatever we can to get Eduardo Rodriguez from probably our best competition in 2024 makes so much sense.

A steady left handed starter has been missing for years , LHP Montgomery pitched well for Texas  last night , LHP Rodriguez  I'm not sold on him and he has personal problems  I believe ....

LHP Headrick  hasn't been the answer and Smeltzer was a good story with small success  ...

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Verlander is an outlier in pretty much every sense. What's the average pitcher capable of?

The second sentence pretty much stated what the average pitcher should be capable of. For Paddack, he was pretty much a 5 inning pitcher before. Last season it seemed like they went more by pitch count than innings. So if Paddack pitches efficiently but not batting practice he would get more innings in.  

[AlGoreRythm]

4 hours ago, Patzky said:

Stroman scares the crap out of me the same way Dylan Bundy used to. Seriously the more I think about it doing whatever we can to get Eduardo Rodriguez from probably our best competition in 2024 makes so much sense.

I haven't paid attention to Stroman this season, but saw his ERA around 4 this year. I didn't look into the deeper stats.

I think getting a good southpaw for the rotation would be a nice change of pace from the bargain barrel leftys we've seen in the rotation lately like Rich Hill or J.A. Happ.

I think a ground ball lefty would play better considering HRs are easier to hit to left field than right in Target Field. Righty batters may feast on a fly ball lefty at home otherwise.