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In the early days of the 2023 season, during spring training at the Minnesota Twins complex in Fort Myers, Florida, a 6’5” figure could be seen walking. Walking with a weighted vest on. Around the parking area and on the field pregame. Walking and certainly itching to be ready to throw once again.
That figure was Twins pitcher Chris Paddack. At that point, Paddack was still recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. Certainly, he wanted to nail his recovery so that he would not be taken out of action for a similar time frame again. To be able to spend 2024 Spring Training ramping up his workload to get ready to start for the Twins instead of reaching for that glimmer of hope that he might be able to do something at the end of the season as his 2023 went.
For Paddack and the Twins, that slice of being able to compete was realized at the end of this season but came into a larger view during the playoffs. Paddack prepared himself and delivered when the Twins needed him to. No time bigger than in Game 4 against the Houston Astros, unfortunately, a game that we now know would ultimately eliminate the Twins from World Series contention.
Paddack entered the game in the fourth inning where just two batters previously Jose Abreu took Caleb Thielbar deep to break the 1-1 tie. Now facing a 3-1 deficit, Paddack came on to face Chas McCormick and try to steady the ship. After giving up a single to McCormick, Paddack was able to calm what must have felt like a Titantic-sized ship.
Paddack would finish out the fourth and go three up, three down in both the fifth and the sixth innings, which included striking out in order Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. At a quick glance, it was a mere 29 pitches of 2 1/3 innings, but those pitches were very valuable in keeping the Twins in the game and not allowing the Astros to cause more damage.
On a night when so much would go wrong, Paddack went right. At the same time, others like Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien would give glimpses of hope for the offense in 2024. Paddack can give that same sort of hope for the pitching staff. We, as fans, must remember that we are a season removed from Paddack being a piece of the Taylor Rogers trade. If healthy, he certainly could have changed our opinion of that trade significantly based on his start to 2022.
Chris Paddack only made five starts, but those five starts left an impact on a struggling starting staff. His five starts fell slightly shy of accounting for a full win above replacement at 0.9 fWAR. A fWAR total that would lead the team in that metric well beyond him being injured and shut down. His actual ERA may at first seem like it could be more impressive at 4.03 but out of qualified starters would have been top-30. Paddack's expected ERA of 3.10 certainly jumps off the page and is something to be optimistic about.
Not to mention, if the Twins can find something to boost Paddack’s performance, we could see a bit more from him. As a reliever, he saw an over 14 K/9 after putting up a 8.1 K/9 in 2022 and a 8.2 K/9 in 2021 as a starter. Even some marginal improvements for a now healthy Paddack could help the Twins round out a rotation looking at the strong possibility of losing one of their leaders in Sonny Gray.
Of course, every team is chasing that sort of improvement from middle or back-of-rotation starters. As Twins fans, we are believers after seeing what happened when Lopez added a sweeper into his repertoire. Can the Twins catch lightning in a bottle a second time? Only time will tell. What we do know is that reportedly Derek Falvey was optimistic postgame.
How do you feel about Paddack’s performance and future? Is it enough to cover for a rotation without Gray if he signs a deal elsewhere, or do the Twins need to continue and explore another addition?
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