ALDS--Higher seeds in Trouble

[stringer bell]

After two games in all the ALDS series, the higher seeds are in trouble. Texas and Arizona have opened 2-0 leads going back to their home ballparks, while the Twins and Phillies are both 1-1 in their series against Houston and Atlanta respectively. It is entirely possible that all four lower seeds could lock up trips to the league championship series.

I am particularly surprised by Arizona and Texas. Neither team charged into the playoffs, but both seem to have found their best selves at just the right time. If all the lower seeds win their series, the Twins would have a 10-3 record against the remaining participants, having won the season series against all three other remaining teams. Of course, no one has advanced yet, so we shouldn't be counting our chickens before they're hatched.

 

[ashbury]

22 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I am particularly surprised by Arizona and Texas. Neither team charged into the playoffs, but both seem to have found their best selves at just the right time.

I might have said the same of our Twins.  They closed the season on a strong note but against lesser opposition.  I didn't come into the post-season hoping for much.  They have been a very pleasant surprise this past week, and their "best selves" have been pretty good.

[bighat]

I find myself drooling over the possibility of playing Texas in the ALCS. Could you imagine a Rangers/Twins AL Championship series followed by a Diamondbacks/Twins World Series? The networks would be so bummed. I'd imagine a perfect World Series for FOX would be Houston v. Atlanta. 

But yes, we're getting way ahead of ourselves here.

[Trov]

If the lower seeds win, the MLB may be looking into changing up playoff format.  Personally, I find the time off for the higher seeds can hurt them.  Baseball has always been about who is hot, and taking time off can hurt that.  One team I point at a ton for this is the 2007 Rockies.  No one expected them to even make the playoffs, until they went crazy run in September going 20-8 with a win in October as well.  They were hot as hot could be. 

They swept the division round, then the championship round.  The Red Sox went to 7 game in the ALCS and Rockies just sat and waited.  The Red Sox won the last 3 games of the ALCS coming back from down 3-1 to get into the series and quickly swept the Rockies.  The Rockies clearly lost the momentum they had with the long time off and Red Sox where on a hot streak. 

This is similar to the wild card round.  The teams with the bye sit for 5 days after end of season, where the winner of the wild card rounds had at least 2 tense games. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

If the lower seeds win, the MLB may be looking into changing up playoff format.  Personally, I find the time off for the higher seeds can hurt them.  Baseball has always been about who is hot, and taking time off can hurt that.  One team I point at a ton for this is the 2007 Rockies.  No one expected them to even make the playoffs, until they went crazy run in September going 20-8 with a win in October as well.  They were hot as hot could be. 

They swept the division round, then the championship round.  The Red Sox went to 7 game in the ALCS and Rockies just sat and waited.  The Red Sox won the last 3 games of the ALCS coming back from down 3-1 to get into the series and quickly swept the Rockies.  The Rockies clearly lost the momentum they had with the long time off and Red Sox where on a hot streak. 

This is similar to the wild card round.  The teams with the bye sit for 5 days after end of season, where the winner of the wild card rounds had at least 2 tense games. 

If MLB doesn't want the lower seeds to win they shouldn't put them in the playoffs.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not surprised about the Baltimore/Texas matchup. Baltimore always seemed like the kind of young club that was going to get it's lunch taken in the playoffs before learning how to fight back.

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

If the lower seeds win, the MLB may be looking into changing up playoff format.

Just give the top two seeds an option - would you like to play the team with the best record (but missed the playoffs) or would you rather have a bye? :)

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I am particularly surprised by Arizona and Texas. 

The Dodgers likelihood to win in the playoffs cratered when they lost Urias. Baltimore is a very young team and Texas has a great playoff manager in Bochy.

[Dave Borton]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

After two games in all the ALDS series, the higher seeds are in trouble.

Yeah, I checked Vegas odds. I don't remember a year when odds were so stacked. Yet as you point out, favorites are really struggling.

[Dave Borton]

5 hours ago, bighat said:

Could you imagine a Rangers/Twins AL Championship series followed by a Diamondbacks/Twins World Series? 

MLB and advertisers would weep.

[Dave Borton]

39 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If MLB doesn't want the lower seeds to win they shouldn't put them in the playoffs.

It's a business/revenue issue. Postseason was expanded to drive revenue. However, it the lower seeds advance, revenue is threatened.

I don't expect any change next year because of the existing small sample set. But as MLB expands, there will be a more sufficient data set on which to make that business decision. 

[BsuNemo]

I'm thinking with all the crying the high seeds are doing maybe we just give the 5th and 6th seed the first round bye and have the 1 seed play the 4 and the 2 seed play the 3 in a 3 game series right??

In all seriousness, maybe the high seeds just need to prepare differently.  They get to set up their starting rotation, get guys to rest a bit and can run through whatever practice schedule they'd like for the bye week.  Teams should make the adjustments, not MLB.

[LewFordLives]

46 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not surprised about the Baltimore/Texas matchup. Baltimore always seemed like the kind of young club that was going to get it's lunch taken in the playoffs before learning how to fight back.

They're a good team, but I don't understand how they won 101 games with that rotation. Reminiscent of the 2019 Twins.

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, davidborton said:

It's a business/revenue issue. Postseason was expanded to drive revenue. However, it the lower seeds advance, revenue is threatened.

I don't expect any change next year because of the existing small sample set. But as MLB expands, there will be a more sufficient data set on which to make that business decision. 

It's not about lower seeds advancing, it's about smaller national brands advancing. If LAD were the wild card team and Arizona was the top seed MLB would be totally fine with the lower seed advancing. It's all about a team's ability to draw national eyes, not just regional ones. 

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, davidborton said:

It's a business/revenue issue. Postseason was expanded to drive revenue. However, it the lower seeds advance, revenue is threatened.

I don't expect any change next year because of the existing small sample set. But as MLB expands, there will be a more sufficient data set on which to make that business decision. 

I don't think changes will be made, at least not so far as to threaten the non-major market clubs.

While collectively, yeah, all the billionaires want to make as much money as they can, and having major-market-only playoffs would create a bigger pool for revenue sharing, more of the billionaires own NON-major market teams. Individually, should these non-major market teams advance, that would be more money for themselves. Even if the incentive for each of these people is solely cold hard cash, it would still be in their best interest to advance as far into the playoffs as they can.

The Pohald's will make more money going to the World Series then they would from their cut of the revenue share should the Yankees get there.

[Dave Borton]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

more of the billionaires own NON-major market teams

I don't disagree but I think both of our points are two factors which will go into very, very complex business and influence (back curtain relationships among owners) factors which will make up the decision.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The 2023 Twins were blessed with good health and good fortune and are taking advantage.

The Dodgers lost two of their starters, Urias as mentioned and Buehler to injury. The Yankees lost 3-4 from their rotation right away. Cleveland lost their top two starters to injury and traded their third. Those teams will be back next year. Even Houston has had some rotation issues. deGrom is done, but Texas might bring back Scherzer for the ALCS, assuming they close out Baltimore. Atlanta has a ton of talent on the injury list but somehow always competes. 

Injuries are a big story this year, just not for the Twins, thankfully. However, if the Twins take advantage and go all the way, there will be no footnotes. They will have earned it. 🙂

[Mike Sixel]

15 hours ago, stringer bell said:

After two games in all the ALDS series, the higher seeds are in trouble. Texas and Arizona have opened 2-0 leads going back to their home ballparks, while the Twins and Phillies are both 1-1 in their series against Houston and Atlanta respectively. It is entirely possible that all four lower seeds could lock up trips to the league championship series.

I am particularly surprised by Arizona and Texas. Neither team charged into the playoffs, but both seem to have found their best selves at just the right time. If all the lower seeds win their series, the Twins would have a 10-3 record against the remaining participants, having won the season series against all three other remaining teams. Of course, no one has advanced yet, so we shouldn't be counting our chickens before they're hatched.

 

"momentum" means nothing going into the playoffs according to studies. TX was a better team pythag wise, and Baltimore has sketchy pitching......AZ is more of a surprise to me, but wow, the LAD pitchers just aren't doing it.

[AlwaysinModeration]

20 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Just give the top two seeds an option - would you like to play the team with the best record (but missed the playoffs) or would you rather have a bye? :)

Does option one include playing the non-playoff team and advancing regardless of the result?

[Nine of twelve]

I'm going to use this thread as an opportunity to address postseason qualifications and seeding.

There have been critics saying the Twins didn't deserve a berth in the postseason because Seattle had a better record. (Even though it was only by 1 game.) Meanwhile, Miami and Arizona both entered the postseason with worse records than the Twins, and with negative run differentials to boot. I think it's certain that the Twins were a top 12 team in the regular season, even considering playing in the AL Central. Whether Seattle deserved to be in the postseason instead of Miami and Arizona is a legitimate related question.

Another criticism is whether the Twins should have been given the 3 seed. Personally, I think the winner of each division should advance. But I would have no problem seeding the teams in each league by overall record instead of automatically giving the top 3 seeds to the division winners. Beyond that, I would have no problem reseeding the teams by record within each league for each round of the postseason instead of keeping the brackets intact.

To put all this together, having the two leagues separated in the postseason until the World Series has become an anachronism. (IMHO, of course.) I would have no problem completely eliminating the separation between the two leagues. I think it would be fairer and in the long run good for baseball and for the fans. 52 games within the division and 22 games against each of the other 5 divisions. For the postseason seed the 6 division winners and the 6 wild card teams by regular season record, reseeding after each round. And if (when) it turns out 2 teams that historically were in the same league wind up in the World Series, so what?

[Riverbrian]

Every year without fail. We are surprised by playoff results and every year in July we act like we know what is going to happen in the upcoming playoffs despite being consistently surprised. 

We never learn despite baseball consistently trying to teach us year after year. 

We hopelessly believe that that the best team is going to win even though no consensus amongst the fan base on who is actually the best team. This 101 win team has no pitching and 84 win team has no experience, this 90 win team backed into the playoffs. There was really no point in anybody playing in the playoffs this year because the Braves were just going to steamroll through it. 

The team with the best record in the playoffs won 64% of their games. 

The team with the worst record in the playoffs won 51% of their games.

Why would anyone be shocked that a 13% winning percentage over 162 games difference can be erased? Why would anyone be shocked if a .620 OPS hitter goes 4 for 10 and a .900 OPS hitter goes 1 for 12. It happens all the time. 

30 foot singles along with 110 MPH Exit Velo balls caught by the shortstop are a part of this game. Umpires missing balls and strikes in key moments happen all the time. Those types of things tend to even out over 162 games but over 1 game at the right the moment... it just might not even out because there isn't enough time to even it out.  

Clayton Kershaw getting one out and giving up 6 runs is a part of this game. Left hander extraordinaire Framber Valdez getting thumped by players that many have stuck into a box labeled bench is a part of this game. Sonny Gray with a 2.79 ERA being out-dueled by Cristian Javier with a 4.56 ERA is a part of this game. It's happened before and it will happen again.  

Mitch Garver and Bryson Stott driving in 7 runs is a part of this game, Tommy Pham getting 7 hits is a part of this game. Christian Walker stealing two bases is a part of this game. 

Kirilloff going hitless is youth. Cedric Mullins going hitless is ???  

Adam Kennedy of all people beat us silly in 2002, David Eckstein was the MAN for the Angels in 2006. Eddie Rosario went nuts in 2021, Scott Brosius in 1998. We remember that an injured Kirk Gibson hit that clutch home run in 1988 but we forget that Mickey Hatcher was huge as his replacement in that series. Edgar Renteria was a hero in 2010, Rick Dempsey in 1983 for the Orioles, Bucky Dent in 1978,  Howie Kendrick in 2019, Pat Borders in 1992, Steve (who am I) Pearce was the World Series MVP in 2018. How about David Freese in 2011!      

We are surprised when things like this happen every single year in the playoffs and we quickly forget as we minimize contention the very next July.  

Make the playoffs... you can't do anything if you don't make the playoffs. If you make the playoffs don't take it for granted, don't minimize it. get behind it, feel it. Don't hand anyone a PAPER ADVANTAGE. Give 1,000 percent. Get that big hit when needed, get that big strikeout when needed, make that great catch when needed. The margins are incredibly thin.  

I guarantee this post will be forgotten about by the time players arrive in Ft. Myers if it isn't dismissed immediately. 😉 

 

 

  

   

 

[stringer bell]

AL East finished 0-7, with Texas doing most of that damage 5-0). I guess not many would have predicted that. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

AL East finished 0-7, with Texas doing most of that damage 5-0). I guess not many would have predicted that. 

200 Wins between the Orioles and Rays taken down 32-12 total runs. 

200 Wins taken down by a team that lost the west title by finishing the season with three losses to the Mariners.

200 Wins taken down by a team with Jacob DeGrom, Max Scherzer and Jonathan Gray on the Disabled list. 

[stringer bell]

NL behemoths Atlanta and LA are down in their first round. All three 100 win teams lost, also all teams with more than 90 wins are out and between them, they won one game. 

This year’s postseason is topsy-turvy. In the regular season, the Twins won the season series from all four remaining teams. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Those teams also have recent World Series victories in their back pockets. 

I know the point is not to put down those great teams, but more to highlight the sometimes arbitrary nature of which teams survive and advance. The margins are indeed thin in the postseason. 

The Dodgers, Philly, and Atlanta are still the class of the NL and only one can make it to the finish. 

Houston is clearly the class of the American League, and I expect the Yankees to return to prominence next year again too. The Twins should be competitive again as well. 

[Mike Sixel]

It's a second season. A different season. We should MUCH MORE celebrate the first season winner than we do, and admit this is a different game.