Gloves Need Not Apply

[Greggory Masterson]

“(Defensive) WAR, what is it good for?” seems to be the question on the Twins’ minds as they roll out lineups with big bats and questionable gloves.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

At long last, Joey Gallo has been starting in center field for the Twins. It solves, at least for now, the problem that fans have been wondering about for most of the season—how can the Twins fit all these corner outfielders into the lineup?

On Monday and Tuesday, the Twins starting lineup featured Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Gallo—five left-handed corner outfielders. Trying to fit each of them into the lineup consistently has been a problem for the Twins, and this week they finally bit the bullet and sacrificed offense for defense.

Now, there’s an argument to be made that Joey Gallo’s offense isn’t better than Michael A. Taylor’s at this point (or even Kyle Farmer’s at third, where Willi Castro started both of those days). Still, it’s clear what the Twins are trying to do: add beef to a lineup that ranks 16th in OPS+ (and, specifically, 27th among centerfielders).

Building off of that, Jorge Polanco is returned to the team Friday night after a stint on the injured list, and he’s been playing third base so that the Twins can keep both his bat and second baseman Edouard Julien’s in the lineup. Since Royce Lewis’s oblique injury, the team has trotted out Farmer, Castro, and Donovan Solano at the hot corner, which has produced subpar offensive results.

A lineup with Gallo in centerfield (for however long that lasts), Wallner in left, Julien at second, and Polanco at third will provide questionable defense at best, but that seems like a risk that the Twins are willing to take to get offense from this lineup. Before the All-Star Break, the Twins averaged 4.18 runs per game, but after the break, through July 26th, they averaged 5.92 runs per game. They also boast one of the best pitching staffs in the league, who lead the league in strikeouts and are third in ERA.

Batters always have an outsized ability to provide value offensively over defensively. It’s why players like Gary Sheffield, complete butchers in the field, were able to have long and borderline Hall of Fame careers. For the Twins, a team whose pitchers lead the league in strikeouts, defensive value is further diminished because fewer balls are in play each game.

Even with Gold Glovers in Carlos Correa, Gallo, and Taylor, the Twins have been middling to below average defensively this year (-10 OAA, 27 DRS, for the nerds out there) while sitting in the bottom half of the league offensively. Thus, the team would be willing at least to entertain offense-heavy lineups at the cost of defense.

However, we don’t need to expect a cobbled-together, slapdash, Swiss cheese defense all game. Rocco Baldelli has become notorious for using in-game moves—mostly pinch-hitting for platoon purposes. However, he’s also willing to bring in defensive replacements late in the game. He’s primarily been comfortable bringing Julien out of the game and getting Taylor into centerfield to shore up the defense, sometimes in the same move.

As a strategy, there’s merit. They can open the game with the best offensive lineup possible and try to score runs early. As the game goes into the final innings, they can pull players like Julien and Wallner for better defenders in Kyler Farmer and Taylor to secure the win. Players like Donovan Solano are still available to pinch hit during the game and take over a position in the field that fits with the rest of the team.

There’s a limit to this strategy, though. If the bullpen blows a late lead, exciting bats like Wallner and Julien would have been removed from the game, and Taylor or Farmer, far worse offensive players, might be counted on for big plate appearances in close games, as Farmer was on Friday night. However, when the alternative is Julien playing second base and Wallner finishing a game in left field, where his monster arm is less valuable, it’s difficult not to pull the trigger on a defensive sub. It’s the risk run with a reliance on poor defenders to provide offense.

Even Ryan Jeffers, who is seen as a lesser defender than Christian Vazquez but a vastly superior offensive player, has been getting more playing time lately. With trade targets like Lane Thomas, Tommy Pham, or Mark Canha, who are not outstanding defenders in the corners but could technically play center field (each has had a handful of starts there over the last few years but is getting older), this strategy could continue.

There would inevitably be a negative effect on runs allowed per game, but the team might stomach that, given how well the pitchers have performed thus far. Dropping a few slots in ERA might be worth improving the offense to a top-10 unit. Of course, that’s still incumbent on the offensive players hitting well enough to make up for their shoddy defense (read: Joey Gallo or trade acquisitions in center), but if the team is desperate enough for offense, we might see this plan played out in more than a few games down the stretch.

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[Karbo]

First of all, Gallo is no longer anywhere near a gold glover. His best position would 1st base IMO. I would much rather see Castro in CF than Gallo. Next is Gallo's horrible offensive stats. Sure he hits a bomb occasionally, but I would trade a Castro with his speed over Gallo every day. Gallo needs to go, period. Buxton needs to play OF, period. He is another dead spot in the lineup at DH! If he gets hurt IL him.

[MABB1959]

Who are the consistent big bats?  

[mikelink45]

How many times will TD slip in some positive statement about Gallo and his 179 BA?  Sure he has 17 HRs - but he has only 32 RBIs.  Look at the BR fielding chart - this is not an above average fielder.  I prefer Michael Taylor out there.  Taylor has twice Gallos WAR, 5 LESS HRS, and only 2 less RBIs and he is a plus fielder.    This is a case where OPS+ is misleading.  Gallo started out fast and made critics like me look bad, but that was short lived and the rest of his season is even worse than the 179 - I think I either read or heard that sense that initial three week splurge he is batting under 160 - a mark that gave the  Yankees indigestion. 

[Parfigliano]

47 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

How many times will TD slip in some positive statement about Gallo and his 179 BA?  Sure he has 17 HRs - but he has only 32 RBIs.  Look at the BR fielding chart - this is not an above average fielder.  I prefer Michael Taylor out there.  Taylor has twice Gallos WAR, 5 LESS HRS, and only 2 less RBIs and he is a plus fielder.    This is a case where OPS+ is misleading.  Gallo started out fast and made critics like me look bad, but that was short lived and the rest of his season is even worse than the 179 - I think I either read or heard that sense that initial three week splurge he is batting under 160 - a mark that gave the  Yankees indigestion. 

Gallo needs to go.  Buxton needs to go into CF or go on IL.  Two wasted roster spots.

[jkcarew]

Defense will always have value…but it has less value in the modern game…fewer balls in play, fewer balls on the ground. It’s a roster trend league wide…not just the Twins.

In an era of small parks, and fewer balls in play, there is nothing that a defensive specialist like MAT can do out there to justify 300+ PA against right-handed pitching over the course of a season. There just isn’t. Even the Twins are admitting utter defeat by rolling Gallo and/or Castro out there against right-handed pitching.

[Greggory Masterson]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

How many times will TD slip in some positive statement about Gallo and his 179 BA?  

I just re-read this, and I disagree that there were any positive statements made about Gallo, other than that he's seen as a better offensive player than the guys they have had in center. I'd go so far as to say there were negative comments snuck in about him

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

First of all, Gallo is no longer anywhere near a gold glover. His best position would 1st base IMO. I would much rather see Castro in CF than Gallo. Next is Gallo's horrible offensive stats. Sure he hits a bomb occasionally, but I would trade a Castro with his speed over Gallo every day.

We'll see how much longer Gallo is around. I'm sure by August 2nd we'll have some clarity

4 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Who are the consistent big bats?  

I hope they appear soon, but that's what it seems like they're looking for in these lineups.

[Patzky]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

First of all, Gallo is no longer anywhere near a gold glover. His best position would 1st base IMO. I would much rather see Castro in CF than Gallo. Next is Gallo's horrible offensive stats. Sure he hits a bomb occasionally, but I would trade a Castro with his speed over Gallo every day. Gallo needs to go, period. Buxton needs to play OF, period. He is another dead spot in the lineup at DH! If he gets hurt IL him.

Gallo sits, fingers crossed.

Repeat as necessary.

 

[Jocko87]

To test the theory, how much hitting does a Miranda, Correa, Julien, Kirilloff infield and a Larnach, Gallo, Wallner outfield have to do?

Answer. One hell of a lot. Like 29 Yankees lots.

Kepler is on this team for a reason.

[Doctor Wu]

At least Correa has shown some value with the glove this season. Overall, he's been a disappointment, but his batting average has been inching up since the All-Star break. However, he still seems to have this uncanny habit of hitting into double plays too often.

[CRF]

I'm not even going to pretend that I understand all the defensive metrics/analytics...and for that matter, the offensive ones either. I'm way too old to figure that stuff out. Old dog, new tricks etc. Gallo certainly isn't a Gold Glover in the OF any longer. I can't believe he ever was. First base would be his best position. There's a fine line between playing a guy that hits, but doesn't have a good glove...and Gallo doesn't fit the profile. The reality is...he shouldn't be playing period! If you want a guy who maybe hits 25-30 HR's and drives in 50-60 runs...while hitting a robust .180, then you must be crazy. I don't want him in the lineup at all. If he's still on this roster on Tues night, then the FO should be taken out behind the wood shed. Since Buxton can't/won't play CF, then MAT has to...weak bat and all. He's GG caliber. Castro can do it, but he's risky out there at best. The FO has to clean up this roster. Fix the glut of outfielders, and PLEASE DFA Gallo! 

[Heiny]

2 hours ago, CRF said:

If he's still on this roster on Tues night, then the FO should be taken out behind the wood shed.

LOL,  Now that is some good old fashioned (yet fitting) humor.  Thank you CRF.

[Linus]

Castro s outfield play has caused 3-4 runs against in the last two games. Defense matters.