Gloves Need Not Apply

At long last, Joey Gallo has been starting in center field for the Twins. It solves, at least for now, the problem that fans have been wondering about for most of the season—how can the Twins fit all these corner outfielders into the lineup?

On Monday and Tuesday, the Twins starting lineup featured Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Gallo—five left-handed corner outfielders. Trying to fit each of them into the lineup consistently has been a problem for the Twins, and this week they finally bit the bullet and sacrificed offense for defense.

Now, there’s an argument to be made that Joey Gallo’s offense isn’t better than Michael A. Taylor’s at this point (or even Kyle Farmer’s at third, where Willi Castro started both of those days). Still, it’s clear what the Twins are trying to do: add beef to a lineup that ranks 16th in OPS+ (and, specifically, 27th among centerfielders).

Building off of that, Jorge Polanco is returned to the team Friday night after a stint on the injured list, and he’s been playing third base so that the Twins can keep both his bat and second baseman Edouard Julien’s in the lineup. Since Royce Lewis’s oblique injury, the team has trotted out Farmer, Castro, and Donovan Solano at the hot corner, which has produced subpar offensive results.

A lineup with Gallo in centerfield (for however long that lasts), Wallner in left, Julien at second, and Polanco at third will provide questionable defense at best, but that seems like a risk that the Twins are willing to take to get offense from this lineup. Before the All-Star Break, the Twins averaged 4.18 runs per game, but after the break, through July 26th, they averaged 5.92 runs per game. They also boast one of the best pitching staffs in the league, who lead the league in strikeouts and are third in ERA.

Batters always have an outsized ability to provide value offensively over defensively. It’s why players like Gary Sheffield, complete butchers in the field, were able to have long and borderline Hall of Fame careers. For the Twins, a team whose pitchers lead the league in strikeouts, defensive value is further diminished because fewer balls are in play each game.

Even with Gold Glovers in Carlos Correa, Gallo, and Taylor, the Twins have been middling to below average defensively this year (-10 OAA, 27 DRS, for the nerds out there) while sitting in the bottom half of the league offensively. Thus, the team would be willing at least to entertain offense-heavy lineups at the cost of defense.

However, we don’t need to expect a cobbled-together, slapdash, Swiss cheese defense all game. Rocco Baldelli has become notorious for using in-game moves—mostly pinch-hitting for platoon purposes. However, he’s also willing to bring in defensive replacements late in the game. He’s primarily been comfortable bringing Julien out of the game and getting Taylor into centerfield to shore up the defense, sometimes in the same move.

As a strategy, there’s merit. They can open the game with the best offensive lineup possible and try to score runs early. As the game goes into the final innings, they can pull players like Julien and Wallner for better defenders in Kyler Farmer and Taylor to secure the win. Players like Donovan Solano are still available to pinch hit during the game and take over a position in the field that fits with the rest of the team.

There’s a limit to this strategy, though. If the bullpen blows a late lead, exciting bats like Wallner and Julien would have been removed from the game, and Taylor or Farmer, far worse offensive players, might be counted on for big plate appearances in close games, as Farmer was on Friday night. However, when the alternative is Julien playing second base and Wallner finishing a game in left field, where his monster arm is less valuable, it’s difficult not to pull the trigger on a defensive sub. It’s the risk run with a reliance on poor defenders to provide offense.

Even Ryan Jeffers, who is seen as a lesser defender than Christian Vazquez but a vastly superior offensive player, has been getting more playing time lately. With trade targets like Lane Thomas, Tommy Pham, or Mark Canha, who are not outstanding defenders in the corners but could technically play center field (each has had a handful of starts there over the last few years but is getting older), this strategy could continue.

There would inevitably be a negative effect on runs allowed per game, but the team might stomach that, given how well the pitchers have performed thus far. Dropping a few slots in ERA might be worth improving the offense to a top-10 unit. Of course, that’s still incumbent on the offensive players hitting well enough to make up for their shoddy defense (read: Joey Gallo or trade acquisitions in center), but if the team is desperate enough for offense, we might see this plan played out in more than a few games down the stretch.