Keith Law's post-draft top-60 Prospects, is high on Twins

[Steve Lein]

Behind paywall: https://theathletic.com/4703833/2023/07/21/mlb-top-prospects-2023-minor-leaguers/

Law is pretty high on the Twins top prospects, with three of them in his top 25:

17. Brooks Lee: "Lee’s a high floor guy, as it’s very hard to imagine he’s less than a regular, although I think the only way he’s a true star is if he’s a consistent .300+ hitter and gets toward that power ceiling."

22. Emmanuel Rodriguez: "A centerfielder now, Rodriguez probably moves to right before too long, but the potential for a .400 OBP with 25 homers there would make him at least an above-average regular."

25. Walker Jenkins: "This is, as they say, what they’re supposed to look like, and I could easily see him becoming a .280+ hitter with 25-30 homers and strong OBPs."

In our recent top 20 update voting, I rated them Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, but I wouldn't argue with anyone mixing them around. The ceiling for Jenkins was my differentiator.

On his offseason list from January, Law had Rodriguez at #48, and Lee at #51.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Steve Lein

[Mike Sixel]

And people here say the farm is barren.....

Given that only ten qualified guys are hitting .300....yes, Lee hitting .300 with even his current power would make him a star. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Lee's power is coming,   already seeing a bit of it now.  Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up near 20 home runs this year and still leading AA in doubles.  Just need a few more doubles to get over the fence.  

Lee will likely be the hitter of the month in the minor leagues for the Twins for July.  Over 1100 OPS.  I think the statements he is floundering as a pick have washed away pretty quickly as was being stated before the All Star break.  

[2wins87]

Actually surprisingly high ranking for Lee based on his floor, given that Law himself says the list is more focused on upside.

"Lower chase rate than Juan Soto" is a pretty good tidbit on Rodriguez.

[jmlease1]

I don't always agree with KLaw, but I definitely respect him. And he's pretty transparent about his methodologies and aware of his potential biases. So if he's ranking three Twins prospects in his Top 25, that's awfully nice.

I'm not sure we'd get anyone else in his top 100, but I think he likes our overall organizational depth

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

On his offseason list from January, Law had Rodriguez at #48, and Lee at #51.

Wow, E-Rod is up even after the first couple months that he had this year. July has been fantastic but I'm not even sure that totally factored into Law's ratings (or is he doing all of this after last night's games??).

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Brooks Lee if he keeps this pace up,  is looking at a possible promotion to AAA and even higher in the prospect rankings.  Has a legit shot at Rookie of the year next if he is called up.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Brooks Lee if he keeps this pace up,  is looking at a possible promotion to AAA and even higher in the prospect rankings.  Has a legit shot at Rookie of the year next if he is called up.  

Should be in AAA now. They don't have a legit prospect at either SS or 3B there right now (Miranda going back there will change that) and 2B will be free once Polanco is recalled. But then Severino has dominated AA and still there. They have been unable (so many AAAA players in St. Paul) to promote to AAA this year.

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

And people here say the farm is barren.....

Given that only ten qualified guys are hitting .300....yes, Lee hitting .300 with even his current power would make him a star. 

Agree on the system NOT being bare. It's always nice to have your system ranked high. Makes you feel good. But not only are rankings rather arbitrary in general, but they can flux several spots in one year. 

What hurts the Twins rankings us two things:

1] Graduation of several top prospects, even if a few haven't grabbed hold of opportunity yet. And a couple injuries, such as Balazovic and Martin, etc. 

2] Between those graduations and trades of prospects last season, there is a gap in the system between a handful of really nice prospects at AAA and AA, and the "next generation" of good/high ceiling kids that are in A ball.

So while they might be lacking a lot of HIGH ceiling guys in the upper levels as a result, the system is by no means barren.

[gunnarthor]

Very nice to see. I love Lee and Jenkins and very excited to read that about Rodriguez.

[wabene]

It is amazing to me how few pitchers there are in his top 60. Just 9 and clustered towards the bottom of the list. 

[weitz41]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Should be in AAA now. They don't have a legit prospect at either SS or 3B there right now (Miranda going back there will change that) and 2B will be free once Polanco is recalled. But then Severino has dominated AA and still there. They have been unable (so many AAAA players in St. Paul) to promote to AAA this year.

I've been wondering about this also. Maybe Lewis rehab soon plays a part in it? Polanco now rehabbing and playing 3rd from what I read today. Other than that, seems like he has little to nothing to prove in Wichita...

[nicksaviking]

For me, the best part about Law’s write up is regarding Rodriguez: "He just does not chase," Law wrote. "But [he] takes too many strikes right now, which I think is an easier thing to fix than pitch or ball/strike recognition. 

If Law thinks the strikeouts are not only a non-issue, but the learning curve of a great eye and patient hitter, this could be the superstar we’ve long been waiting for.

[ashbury]

On 7/21/2023 at 10:15 AM, Steve Lein said:

22. Emmanuel Rodriguez: "A centerfielder now, Rodriguez probably moves to right before too long, but the potential for a .400 OBP with 25 homers there would make him at least an above-average regular."

Above average, no.  That's pretty elite company.  Last year the guys who did that were named Judge (overachieving this by just a bit ), Goldschmidt, Y Alvarez, Soto, and Freeman.  I took a look at those guys' minor league records and, without getting lost in the weeds too much, none of them had the low-BA high-OBP profile that our ERod does.  I don't know who/what the comp for ERod should be, because he's pretty unique.  But he's not hitting .300 in the minors like these top hitters were at similar times.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

For me, the best part about Law’s write up is regarding Rodriguez: "He just does not chase," Law wrote. "But [he] takes too many strikes right now, which I think is an easier thing to fix than pitch or ball/strike recognition. 

If Law thinks the strikeouts are not only a non-issue, but the learning curve of a great eye and patient hitter, this could be the superstar we’ve long been waiting for.

The huge walk rate suggests an ability to wait for his pitch and then really wallop it, or else accept the walk if the pitcher won't pitch to him.  And certainly the HR power is legit, but the low batting average is what's puzzling to me.  The other explanation I can come up with is that there is a profile of pitches he just doesn't feel like he can handle, and at the minor league levels he's been at he's been able to spit on borderline pitches in those areas and deal with the ones he prefers.  As he moves up, the pitchers get better and better at hitting their spots, and if he really has a hole in his swing somewhere, those pitchers will be able to exploit it more and more. 

Or he could, you know, learn to hit those pitches he currently doesn't feel comfortable with.  I just don't know.

It's a drum I try not to bang too often.  I wouldn't trade him, he's too intriguing for that.  But I'm very much an ERod skeptic.  He doesn't have a lot of strong comps, which makes him a very interesting unicorn to watch.  But it's an open question to me whether those huge numbers of walks remain walks, turn into hits, or turn into outs, as he moves up.

What's the chance he turns into Joey Gallo? A lifetime OBP of only .325 or so, built with lots of walks on top of a low BA? An "above-average regular" (in his prime) who everyone loves to hate and everyone keeps waiting for a peak that never arrives?

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

For me, the best part about Law’s write up is regarding Rodriguez: "He just does not chase," Law wrote. "But [he] takes too many strikes right now, which I think is an easier thing to fix than pitch or ball/strike recognition. 

If Law thinks the strikeouts are not only a non-issue, but the learning curve of a great eye and patient hitter, this could be the superstar we’ve long been waiting for.

Julien does that same thing, taking too many strikes. Much preferable to swinging at everything. Don't see many minor leaguers that do that and I think it bodes well for E-Rod.

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Above average, no.  That's pretty elite company.  Last year the guys who did that were named Judge (overachieving this by just a bit ), Goldschmidt, Y Alvarez, Soto, and Freeman.  I took a look at those guys' minor league records and, without getting lost in the weeds too much, none of them had the low-BA high-OBP profile that our ERod does.  

I know you’ve been a skeptic, and I thought of you when I saw Law’s evaluation, but I’m not sure the low BA angle is fair at this time. After April of last year, his BA was .292 and it was only going up, and dramatically, before he was injured. Similarly this year, after a slow start, which seems reasonable after the injury, he’s been batting .275 since June. I think at this point, it’s reasonable to believe it will continue to stabilize or increase. 

[tony&rodney]

ERod takes some pretty outlandish hacks at times. He can really drive the ball a long way when he stays focused and smooth through the swing. The ball hops off of his bat. Emmanuel looks too eager at other times when he tries to crush 500 foot home runs and swings wildly. There is certainly a level of discipline needed with his swing. From the couple of dozen time I have watched Rodriguez bat (via milb.com) this year, I have seen considerable growth within the season as well as signs of future gains ahead. The floor for young Emmanuel may be very difficult to discern but the ceiling is undoubtedly high.

[Steve Lein]

On 7/22/2023 at 2:22 PM, wabene said:

It is amazing to me how few pitchers there are in his top 60. Just 9 and clustered towards the bottom of the list. 

Having Paul Skenes at #16 was surprising to me, but he is the top rated pitcher I guess.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 7/21/2023 at 1:44 PM, Mike Sixel said:

And people here say the farm is barren.....

 

Where are the Twins pitching prospects?

[nicksaviking]

39 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Where are the Twins pitching prospects?

You mean "ranked" prospects? Who cares. The Twins have done much better with the still talented, but unranked pitchers, which is what should be expected since the rankings tend to be initially based on when the player is drafted.

And that's not just a Twins thing. Half of the best pitchers in the league never sniffed a top 100 prospect list and most of the ones that did, crashed and burned before later rebuilding their reputation.

 

[Steve Lein]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

You mean "ranked" prospects? Who cares. The Twins have done much better with the still talented, but unranked pitchers, which is what should be expected since the rankings tend to be initially based on when the player is drafted.

And that's not just a Twins thing. Half of the best pitchers in the league never sniffed a top 100 prospect list and most of the ones that did, crashed and burned before later rebuilding their reputation.

 

TINSTAAPP!!! 🤣

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Where are the Twins pitching prospects?

I have no idea what this is supposed to prove? But if you look at longer lists, like fangraphs, that have several in the top 200...

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Where are the Twins pitching prospects?

Priellip and Soto have your highest ceilings.  Priellip sounds like went in for just a slight repair work.  Low floor for both

2nd tier - Varland, SWR, Raya 

3rd tier - Festa Canterino, Enlow

Then you have all the 2022 and 2023 draft prospects other than Soto.  Honestly that is a fairly strong pitching pipeline especially for our history.  If Priellip can pitch healthy next year and Soto looks good I don't think many will be complaining. You also have Raya who we will see if they continue to lengthen out.   If 1 or 2 of the other 2023 prospects looks strong suddenly we have a fairly strong pipeline.  

[Dman]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

ERod takes some pretty outlandish hacks at times. He can really drive the ball a long way when he stays focused and smooth through the swing. The ball hops off of his bat. Emmanuel looks too eager at other times when he tries to crush 500 foot home runs and swings wildly. There is certainly a level of discipline needed with his swing. From the couple of dozen time I have watched Rodriguez bat (via milb.com) this year, I have seen considerable growth within the season as well as signs of future gains ahead. The floor for young Emmanuel may be very difficult to discern but the ceiling is undoubtedly high.

Totally agree with the wild swinging through pitches\over eager approach at times.  I watched him take two horrible at bats when I went to a live game in Beloit and yet the next three at bats he hit the ball hard all three times for base hits.  I don't think he walked that night but he does like ambushing first pitch strikes (mainly fastballs) and I am not sure how well that plays the higher he moves up.

Still as others have said since his slow start he has pretty much been back to his old self which looks All Star worthy.  I still have questions but 20 year old's don't generally dominate like he has so I think Law was right to rank him fairly high. There are things to work on though.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

On 7/21/2023 at 4:01 PM, FlyingFinn said:

Wow, E-Rod is up even after the first couple months that he had this year. July has been fantastic but I'm not even sure that totally factored into Law's ratings (or is he doing all of this after last night's games??).

ERod has been great all season, with the exception being May when he was working back from being injured. Ive watched him a bunch this season, he is the real deal. People should be very excited.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Priellip and Soto have your highest ceilings.  Priellip sounds like went in for just a slight repair work.  Low floor for both

2nd tier - Varland, SWR, Raya 

3rd tier - Festa Canterino, Enlow

Then you have all the 2022 and 2023 draft prospects other than Soto.  Honestly that is a fairly strong pitching pipeline especially for our history.  If Priellip can pitch healthy next year and Soto looks good I don't think many will be complaining. You also have Raya who we will see if they continue to lengthen out.   If 1 or 2 of the other 2023 prospects looks strong suddenly we have a fairly strong pipeline.  

Thanks for your reply IA Bean. I just don't see any of these prospects, whom you mentioned, being placed in the top 100, except possibly Soto, who I really like.  I hope Soto, Raya and Priellip are in the latest top 100, but I will be pleasantly surprised if they are. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea what this is supposed to prove? But if you look at longer lists, like fangraphs, that have several in the top 200...

I guess my response doesn't prove anything. I just wondered why the Twins had such a good group of prospects with none in the top 60 who were pitchers. That is what I was trying to ask. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I guess my response doesn't prove anything. I just wondered why the Twins had such a good group of prospects with none in the top 60 who were pitchers. That is what I was trying to ask. 

There are almost no pitchers in that list. There aren't that many in the FG list either (which clearly needs updating). Nature of the beast. Plus, top 60 is a pretty small list for all the minors. I mean, we are talking about 2 per team on average.....how many teams have a SP in their top 2-3 prospects? 

[ashbury]

17 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I know you’ve been a skeptic, and I thought of you when I saw Law’s evaluation, but I’m not sure the low BA angle is fair at this time. After April of last year, his BA was .292 and it was only going up, and dramatically, before he was injured. Similarly this year, after a slow start, which seems reasonable after the injury, he’s been batting .275 since June. I think at this point, it’s reasonable to believe it will continue to stabilize or increase. 

Flattered that you would remember, and I guess conversely it means I should bang that drum even less frequently.

I'll just respond to these bits of data, though, to say that the benchmark which Law chose (.400 OBP, 25 HR in the majors) is his and not yours, nor perhaps did he mean to suggest ERod's the next Juan Soto, but when I looked up last season's MLB qualifiers who reached both those levels, I didn't need to sift their minor league stats looking for hopeful signs for the most part - they simply were hitting .300 at age 20 or whenever their minor league career was (the outlier among the five was Aaron Judge, who is a bit of a unicorn himself).  There are not many guys like them.  But with them, there was none of this .214 and .228 stuff that needed to be explained away.  Just based on the comps I could find, ERod is looking like something else than Law suggested.  I literally don't know what.

Okay, one more (more) thing.   Since I'm interested in comps at the moment, I went back in time 10 years and took a look at who hit .300 in the low-A Midwest League that year.  Among the names: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco,   Pretty cool.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

There are almost no pitchers in that list. There aren't that many in the FG list either (which clearly needs updating). Nature of the beast. Plus, top 60 is a pretty small list for all the minors. I mean, we are talking about 2 per team on average.....how many teams have a SP in their top 2-3 prospects? 

There are 9 pitchers  on Law's latest list plus 5 pitchers on his honorable mention list. None are in the Twins' organization. Your point is well made by you. Thanks.