Rumor: Will the St Louis Cardinals Trade Nolan Arenado?

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

Time to un-honor Kepler's wishes about CF and pencil him in multiple games per week.

I actually don't think that would be a good thing, defensively, imo. Where he's at now ... not sure I want him in CF.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

https://www.twincities.com/2023/05/15/royce-lewis-takes-next-step-forward-in-rehab-assignment/
I think his comments are pretty clear that he doesn’t want Royce playing the OF. To me that doesn’t mean ever and forever, but I don’t think it will happen this season. I don’t know if it was a response to the Twins saying he’d be in the IF or if discussions were had behind the scenes. Kinda sounds like the latter, not that Boras was dictating anything, but I could see him having discussions with the Twins in the best interests of his client. Again, to me, doesn’t say to me that Lewis is forever an infielder, but I don’t think he’s going to spend any time in the OF this season. Next season is a different story.

Thanks 

[Parfigliano]

44 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Here's a deal that I would propose because as others have pointed out, the Cards need pitching.   Using BBTV's:

Twins Get:  Arenado 3B  -11.6 value  32 y/o   Goldschmidt 1B  21.1 value  35 y/o and CASH to lower Arenado's cost and mitigate his negative value.  The cash contribution puts the Twins Total Value acquired at 24.50

Cards Get:  L. Varland RHSP 10.3  Josh Winder RHP  5.8  Miranda 3B/1B  8.9   Total value:  25.00.

These two bats would instantly upgrade the Twins offense and we'd have Goldy & Noley for all of 2024.  We haven't touched anyone in our current starting rotation.  Bullpen help would still be needed.  Maybe the deal could be expanded slightly to include a BP piece the Cards would be willing to part with.  But I would also contend that this type of deal would lead to other deals. 

This is what I'm talking about when I urge that the Twins should be buyers as well as sellers.  We need to remake the composition of our roster.  Polanco would be at the top of my list before his value completely craters (it's currently at 7.3).  Gallo  2.7   Kepler 1.2  Theilbar 12.7, Larnach 16.4,  Solano 2.4, Winder 5.8, should ALL be considered in various forms of buying or selling type of trades.  What else could we add if we parted with some of these players?

Adding Goldy & Arenado means Lewis is playing 2B and/or CF (or certainly LF).  Kirilloff moves to RF fulltime.  Julien is playing 2B when Lewis isn't and maybe DH'ing a bit more too.  Julien should also get a look in LF.  

Possible Lineup:  (assuming Buxton can only play DH)

Julien 2B (Farmer comes in for defense 7th inning)

Goldy 1B

Kirilloff RF   (the power isn't there yet, but he gets on base considtently)

Arenado 3B

Correa  SS (counting on a better 2nd half of the season)

Lewis  LF (when he returns)  2B full time if an OF also acquired at deadline moving Julien to DH

Buxton  DH

Jeffers  C

Kepler/MAT CF  (either or both should be moved so acquiring a Bellinger type would be low cost and necessary).

That's a MUCH better lineup than what we currently have obviously.  This lineup has some positional flexibility even if Lewis doesn't play OF but other moves would be needed.

 

 

The St Louis FO people would be strung up on the Arch if they did that.

[Cap'n Piranha]

10 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

The St Louis FO people would be strung up on the Arch if they did that.

Agreed--I would give up Varland, Winder, and Miranda in a heartbeat for Arenado and cash.  I just can't imagine any universe in which STL trades both those guys without getting at least 1 top 100 prospect, if not 2.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm in the same spot here as I am with the Goldy trade ideas. I love it, but I don't see the fit. The Cards need pitching, and I don't think the Twins have the prospect arms to make this kind of deal happen. I'd love Arenado on the Twins, though. Should've beat that terrible Cards package they sent to Colorado in the first place.

For just Arenado, I'd bet the Cards would be perfectly happy with some combo of Varland, SWR, Prielipp, Raya, or Festa.  Especially if they're clearing most of Arenado's salary, allowing them to sign pitching in the offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

The St Louis FO people would be strung up on the Arch if they did that.

Right. That's so far from fair it's ridiculous. 

[Loosey]

I think there is a difference between refusing to play CF and not being comfortable out there or disliking it.  If Kepler were the Twins best CF option and the Twins told him, they understand it's not his most comfortable spot but they need him there to make the best lineup I'm sure he would play.  I get Lewis's agent making statements about CF.  He got hurt there and he has traditionally been an infielder.  He needs to get his client to a 2nd contract as healthy as possible.  But if he were healthy and the Twins needed him there I doubt he refuses to play.  

That being said, Buxton is the best option and having the Twins come out and clarify what is going on with him not being able to play CF other than the vague reason's fans have been given would help answer much of this.

 

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

For just Arenado, I'd bet the Cards would be perfectly happy with some combo of Varland, SWR, Prielipp, Raya, or Festa.  Especially if they're clearing most of Arenado's salary, allowing them to sign pitching in the offseason.

Could be. But you don't think another team could be that combo? Prielipp is about to have his 2nd TJ surgery in 2+ years so I'm not sure anyone would trade anything for him right now. And the rest aren't all that exciting. If that's all it would take I'd do it in a heart beat. But I think other teams can beat that package without breaking a sweat.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

https://www.twincities.com/2023/05/15/royce-lewis-takes-next-step-forward-in-rehab-assignment/
I think his comments are pretty clear that he doesn’t want Royce playing the OF. To me that doesn’t mean ever and forever, but I don’t think it will happen this season. I don’t know if it was a response to the Twins saying he’d be in the IF or if discussions were had behind the scenes. Kinda sounds like the latter, not that Boras was dictating anything, but I could see him having discussions with the Twins in the best interests of his client. Again, to me, doesn’t say to me that Lewis is forever an infielder, but I don’t think he’s going to spend any time in the OF this season. Next season is a different story.

Lost in all the back and forth of this we seem to be forgetting the most important part.  Staying on the infield is the smart thing to do and they are doing it.  Period.  End of story.

It may be that he goes to the outfield eventually.  It would be dumb to do it mid-season, barely back from rehab.  He's not superman.  Remember the 40 odd games played total in 3-4 years or whatever it is?  He is already making minor league adjustments in the major leagues, at a new position and his head has to be swimming.  Adding another position change to the mix would be borderline malpractice.  The play were he lands on his face was purely an experience related mistake.  Yes, it was a horrible play by an inexperienced first baseman but the contact could have been minimized.  Next time we won't be so lucky.  Its not a video game.

Boras says nothing out of line here and everyone is doing the thing in the best interests of all involved.  The short term lineup flexibility is nothing compared to the long term development of a #1 overall pick. 

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

not that Boras was dictating anything, but I could see him having discussions with the Twins in the best interests of his client

Even that doesn’t make that much sense to me.

It MAY mean he has a longer career. But he will be worth less money DURING the career if he’s stuck at 3rd…or doesn’t play SS or CF…and he clearly seem capable…especially of the latter.

Maybe the point is simply increasing likelihood he at least makes it to free agency once. Sacrifice some upside to protect the bottom for career earnings.

Bottom line, it’s definitely not good for the team. Hopefully, it’s short term.

[jkcarew]

15 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

The play were he lands on his face was purely an experience related mistake.  Yes, it was a horrible play by an inexperienced first baseman but the contact could have been minimized.  Next time we won't be so lucky.  Its not a video game.

Boras says nothing out of line here and everyone is doing the thing in the best interests of all involved.  The short term lineup flexibility is nothing compared to the long term development of a #1 overall pick.

The play at first really doesn’t have anything to do with what position he’s playing…and in high school and the minors, he’s spent his entire career moving around and displaying aptitude in various high-leverage defensive positions…way more often at SS or CF than 3rd. That’s WHY he was a number 1 pick.

Still, I mostly agree with you if this is temporary. That would seem reasonable. If not, it definitely will NOT be in the best interest of the club.

[Cap'n Piranha]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Could be. But you don't think another team could be that combo? Prielipp is about to have his 2nd TJ surgery in 2+ years so I'm not sure anyone would trade anything for him right now. And the rest aren't all that exciting. If that's all it would take I'd do it in a heart beat. But I think other teams can beat that package without breaking a sweat.

I wasn't saying the Twins have the best collection of pitching prospects, I was simply responding to the idea that the Twins don't have the requisite arms to make an offer that STL would accept.  Would some other team be able to outdo the Twins?  Perhaps.  It really depends on what STL thinks of what the Twins are offering--maybe STL thinks with a couple of tweaks they turn Varland into a 2, and they're in love with Raya.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I wasn't saying the Twins have the best collection of pitching prospects, I was simply responding to the idea that the Twins don't have the requisite arms to make an offer that STL would accept.  Would some other team be able to outdo the Twins?  Perhaps.  It really depends on what STL thinks of what the Twins are offering--maybe STL thinks with a couple of tweaks they turn Varland into a 2, and they're in love with Raya.

Yeah, I don't think the Twins have the requisite arms to make an offer the Cards would accept, because I think there are a lot of teams that could beat the package. I'd think if the Cards are trading Arenado (or Goldy) they're looking for a top 100 prospect back. The Twins don't have a top 100 arm. Beauty is all in the eye of the beholder here, but I don't see any arms in the Twins system that could front a package for either of the Cards big bats. It certainly only takes the Cards disagreeing with me, but I don't see it.

[Cap'n Piranha]

5 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The play at first really doesn’t have anything to do with what position he’s playing…and in high school and the minors, he’s spent his entire career moving around and displaying aptitude in various high-leverage defensive positions…way more often at SS or CF than 3rd. That’s WHY he was a number 1 pick.

Still, I mostly agree with you if this is temporary. That would seem reasonable. If not, it definitely will NOT be in the best interest of the club.

I see no scenario where Lewis playing the OF is not the most logical option for the 2024 Twins.  He's not going to play short.  Polanco will likely be back next year since his option has vested, so he's not going to play second.  Brooks Lee is likely to take third sooner than later.  When you add the benefit of Lewis playing CF (since Buxton seems unlikely to ever be a "fulltime" CF ever again), it's simply a no-brainer.  I agree that making the move in the middle of a season is a bad idea (since it's related to how he was hurt last year), but with an entire offseason to get reps?  There's no other option in my opinion.

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I don't think the Twins have the requisite arms to make an offer the Cards would accept, because I think there are a lot of teams that could beat the package. I'd think if the Cards are trading Arenado (or Goldy) they're looking for a top 100 prospect back. The Twins don't have a top 100 arm. Beauty is all in the eye of the beholder here, but I don't see any arms in the Twins system that could front a package for either of the Cards big bats. It certainly only takes the Cards disagreeing with me, but I don't see it.

Yeah, just a difference in definitions here.  I'm saying that in a vacuum, the Twins could make an acceptable offer, meaning that they can at least be in the running.  The two teams that I could see being the main competition are MIA and NYY (both bottom 5 in 3B wRC+), so I guess it comes down to what are those teams willing to offer, and what do the Cards think of those prospects compared to whomever the Twins would dangle.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Yeah, just a difference in definitions here.  I'm saying that in a vacuum, the Twins could make an acceptable offer, meaning that they can at least be in the running.  The two teams that I could see being the main competition are MIA and NYY (both bottom 5 in 3B wRC+), so I guess it comes down to what are those teams willing to offer, and what do the Cards think of those prospects compared to whomever the Twins would dangle.

Yeah, I've been surprised by trades plenty of times before, but I just don't see a realistic package from the Twins centered around an arm. Their big bats aren't rentals so the Cards don't have to trade them (unlike Shohei who I can't believe the Angels are refusing to trade). So you have to give them a real reason to do it. And, outside of Lee, and maybe ERod, I don't see anyone in the Twins system that can front a package for those guys. But it's entirely possible the Cards see the Twins arms much differently than I do. So it's possible. I just don't see it.

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I've been surprised by trades plenty of times before, but I just don't see a realistic package from the Twins centered around an arm. Their big bats aren't rentals so the Cards don't have to trade them (unlike Shohei who I can't believe the Angels are refusing to trade). So you have to give them a real reason to do it. And, outside of Lee, and maybe ERod, I don't see anyone in the Twins system that can front a package for those guys. But it's entirely possible the Cards see the Twins arms much differently than I do. So it's possible. I just don't see it.

Nothing the Angels do surprises me.  Undeniably the worst run organization in baseball.  To have the 2 greatest players of the last 20 years on your team and for the last few years concurrently, and yet to have only one playoff appearance in 14 years?  That's absolutely awful.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Nothing the Angels do surprises me.  Undeniably the worst run organization in baseball.  To have the 2 greatest players of the last 20 years on your team and for the last few years concurrently, and yet to have only one playoff appearance in 14 years?  That's absolutely awful.

And to be able to spend like they can? I really don't understand how they haven't lucked into a couple playoff appearances. Mind blowing stuff. I would argue the Rockies are giving them a run for their money in "worst run organization in baseball," though. Arenado and Story aren't Trout and Ohtani, but to lose those 2 for Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, and Jake Sommers while also having to pay down some of Arenado's contract is absurd. It's part of why I'm cautious about all the "Fire the FO" stuff. I'd fire them, but I'd do it with my eyes wide open to the fact that it can get worse. Much worse.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Loosey said:

I think there is a difference between refusing to play CF and not being comfortable out there or disliking it.  If Kepler were the Twins best CF option and the Twins told him, they understand it's not his most comfortable spot but they need him there to make the best lineup I'm sure he would play.  I get Lewis's agent making statements about CF.  He got hurt there and he has traditionally been an infielder.  He needs to get his client to a 2nd contract as healthy as possible.  But if he were healthy and the Twins needed him there I doubt he refuses to play.  

That being said, Buxton is the best option and having the Twins come out and clarify what is going on with him not being able to play CF other than the vague reason's fans have been given would help answer much of this.

 

Excellent post.

It describes what I am thinking. 

Is Kepler refusing to play CF or would he simply rather play RF? 

An agent speaking on behalf of the best interest of his client seems like normal course of agent business to me but it doesn't have to mean that Lewis is making demands to stay out of the OF and it certainly doesn't mean that the front office is trying to make Boras happy. 

The Twins organization might not want Lewis or Kepler in CF and therefore haven't asked. 

Royce may be saying to the powers that be... Man... I'll play anywhere as long as I get to play. 

Either way... I've read this stuff enough of this stuff to believe that a narrative of player obstinance is becoming perception. 

[Jocko87]

47 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The play at first really doesn’t have anything to do with what position he’s playing…and in high school and the minors, he’s spent his entire career moving around and displaying aptitude in various high-leverage defensive positions…way more often at SS or CF than 3rd. That’s WHY he was a number 1 pick.

Still, I mostly agree with you if this is temporary. That would seem reasonable. If not, it definitely will NOT be in the best interest of the club.

Agreed but it’s an example of his experience curve being short circuited. I would wager that he has the least game experience of any 24yo former #1 overall and it matters. I would argue the awkward running on the ACL is the same thing. It could happen at anytime but we have to minimize those situations at the ML level. It’s the whole reason the minor leagues exist. 

[jkcarew]

19 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It could happen at anytime but we have to minimize those situations at the ML level

For how long? Forever isn’t acceptable, IMO.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

For how long? Forever isn’t acceptable, IMO.

It’s not exactly a common situation. 38 games isn’t quite forever.  

I’d be fine if the transition to CF started this offseason but we would still have to recognize its a big ask. Ask Jazz Chisholm and Fernando Tatis Jr.  They were already established as hitters at least. 

[Mike Sixel]

John Mozeliak: “We’re going to trade people.”

That's the GM of the Cards, btw.....the fans aren't buying on Twitter....

[Jacob McIntyre]

On 7/11/2023 at 12:22 PM, CRF said:

I'd be all in on that one, but the Cards need pitching, not position players. 

 

On 7/11/2023 at 11:56 AM, Mike Sixel said:

I'd be for this, but I think the price will be too high. But it sure would help the team until Lewis returns, at which point what do you do with Lewis, if he refuses to play CF (sure would be nice to have him there instead of Taylor). That's a lot more runs if those two things happen......

Miranda and a corner OF from AAA and a middling prospect? IF they can get Lewis to move to the OF, I do that all day. 

Lewis could easily switch to 2B or corner OF, or even play behind Correa at SS, but I believe they would want a pitcher instead of Miranda which brings up the question of who and what level? Would they take a MLB hitter and a AAA pitcher along with said middling prospect, or do they want a proven MLB pitcher? 

[cmoss84]

Goldy or Arenado...you get to pick one. All things considered. Let's just say Goldy costs less in prospects...who ya got?

[Jocko87]

13 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Goldy or Arenado...you get to pick one. All things considered. Let's just say Goldy costs less in prospects...who ya got?

Goldy in a landslide. Arenado might be cheaper though considering the contracts. It’s a lot of money. 

[strumdatjag]

Some of you may not have liked him but Donald Rumsfeld said it best when describing the Iraq War -  and it applies to the Twins this season:

”You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”

The Twins made a big investment in Correa and Buxton (and to a lesser extent, Vasquez).   They aren’t producing as desired. 
It isn’t worth selling any bit of the future to add some more vets to this current unproductive group.  Do you really want to see another Yennier Cano as an all-star for someone else next year (and he was just a lottery pick that by luck came in for the O’s).
So - The fans of this team are left hoping for the current stars to make a 180 and suddenly click this year. If it doesn’t happen, then some major decisions need to be made in the off season.  
BUT - For this season, we at war with the Army we have - like it or not. 
 

[ashbury]

16 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

 

Gah, I failed to realize there was a whole page of responses I hadn't read yet. Never mind, it's been covered.

[Jocko87]

7 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Some of you may not have liked him but Donald Rumsfeld said it best when describing the Iraq War -  and it applies to the Twins this season:

”You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”

The Twins made a big investment in Correa and Buxton (and to a lesser extent, Vasquez).   They aren’t producing as desired. 
It isn’t worth selling any bit of the future to add some more vets to this current unproductive group.  Do you really want to see another Yennier Cano as an all-star for someone else next year (and he was just a lottery pick that by luck came in for the O’s).
So - The fans of this team are left hoping for the current stars to make a 180 and suddenly click this year. If it doesn’t happen, then some major decisions need to be made in the off season.  
BUT - For this season, we at war with the Army we have - like it or not. 
 

To carry on the analogy, Donald Rumsfeld never met a defense contractor he wouldn't buy something from.  It would be a terrible General that wouldn't implement a new weapon if it became available.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Goldy or Arenado...you get to pick one. All things considered. Let's just say Goldy costs less in prospects...who ya got?

Goldschmidt. Easy call.