Star Tribune article: Is Twins ownership under new boss Joe Pohlad losing patience in favor of urgency?

[Azviking101]

2 minutes ago, laloesch said:

It doesn't matter how good the pitching is if the offense is that bad, which it is. Sonny Gray is gone at seasons end.  You can't let a talent like that walk away for nothing that's just foolish. If the Twins were going to extend him it would have happened by now.

First off, if they extend a qualifying offer, they get a top 40 pick. That is not nothing. 
also, teams lose players to free agency all the time. They’ll be getting 2 years of production for him, not nothing. 
 

If they trade him, the rotation is league average at best. Trading away a chance at playoff wins is not worth the couple of average prospects they’d get for a rental piece. Trading Gray regardless  is such a ridiculous take, I’m sorry but it is. 

[laloesch]

Just now, Azviking101 said:

First off, if they extend a qualifying offer, they get a top 40 pick. That is not nothing. 
also, teams lose players to free agency all the time. They’ll be getting 2 years of production for him, not nothing. 
 

If they trade him, the rotation is league average at best. Trading away a chance at playoff wins is not worth the couple of average prospects they’d get for a rental piece. Trading Gray regardless  is such a ridiculous take, I’m sorry but it is. 

Trading Gray is not a ridiculous take. It's just a baseball discussion. Teams make trades all the time.  And you are correct they get a QO top 40 pick, but with his value you could get TWO top 40 picks for him hmmm....food for thought.  With drafts being a total crap shoot at times i'd rather have two chances at a decent return rather than one, just saying.  And besides it doesn't matter what i think because i'm not in charge.  Trading Gray would hurt in the short term, but when you are as bad as they are on offense, where do you go from here?  AND he's already said he plans to test free agency at season's end per the Star Tribune yesterday. 

I say trade him for several prospects at his peak value, while they still can.  This team is not likely going anywhere regardless of how well he pitches as we've already witnessed in the first half.

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

First off, if they extend a qualifying offer, they get a top 40 pick. That is not nothing. 
also, teams lose players to free agency all the time. They’ll be getting 2 years of production for him, not nothing. 
 

If they trade him, the rotation is league average at best. Trading away a chance at playoff wins is not worth the couple of average prospects they’d get for a rental piece. Trading Gray regardless  is such a ridiculous take, I’m sorry but it is. 

While I tend to agree with the sentiment that trading Sonny Gray accomplishes very little, we just don't know what value another team places on acquiring a pitcher. Conversations with other teams should always be fluid and ongoing. 

[Azviking101]

You’re all starting to sound like the A’s front office. So worried about losing a player for “nothing” that you’d rather abandon a season where they are half a game out instead of working to fix what’s going wrong. 
 

half a season more of all star Sonny Gray is not nothing and that’s what they lose by trading him. 

[gunnarthor]

27 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Won't the Twins be able to extend a QO and recoup a draft pick, as well as get the benefit of Gray pitching through the end of the season?

I know the game has changed but QO is going to be around 20m next year. I'm not sure how many teams are going to want to lose the draft pick and spend that much money on a pitcher who will be 34 next year and probably throws only 130 or so innings. 

Gray is not a 150 ERA+ pitcher. He's been coming back to earth since April and his season stats will, likely, end up reflecting that. His trade value won't be higher than it is today. The Twins claim to have pitching depth and if they can move him and get a something that helps them in the long run, they should. I think they can win the central without Gray.

[Squirrel]

44 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

While I tend to agree with the sentiment that trading Sonny Gray accomplishes very little, we just don't know what value another team places on acquiring a pitcher. Conversations with other teams should always be fluid and ongoing. 

It would surprise me if the Twins aren’t listening. I’m sure they are, and, depending on where they are in the next couple of weeks, they could pull the trigger on a trade if the deal is sweet enough. But I, at this point, don’t want to be actively seeking to trade him, but I’m listening.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

All sections of the Strib comments are the Chernobyl of newspaper boards. I don't get it because that has always been a quality paper with an exceptional sports section. Minnesota has a well educated population, yet here we are. The contrast to the discourse at a paper like, say, the NYT is stark. 

NYT moderates their comments, just like Twins Daily does. Not sure if the Strib does, but my guess is, no

[laloesch]

35 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I know the game has changed but QO is going to be around 20m next year. I'm not sure how many teams are going to want to lose the draft pick and spend that much money on a pitcher who will be 34 next year and probably throws only 130 or so innings. 

Gray is not a 150 ERA+ pitcher. He's been coming back to earth since April and his season stats will, likely, end up reflecting that. His trade value won't be higher than it is today. The Twins claim to have pitching depth and if they can move him and get a something that helps them in the long run, they should. I think they can win the central without Gray.

I agree.  If he gets a QO in that range (a big if) the Twins might end up hanging on to him for one more year as other teams are likely to be somewhat reluctant to match that AND lose a top 40 draft pick.  There's a lot of doubt on both sides, that's why i kinda think it's better to trade him sooner rather than later.  We shall see.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I know the game has changed but QO is going to be around 20m next year. I'm not sure how many teams are going to want to lose the draft pick and spend that much money on a pitcher who will be 34 next year and probably throws only 130 or so innings. 

Gray is not a 150 ERA+ pitcher. He's been coming back to earth since April and his season stats will, likely, end up reflecting that. His trade value won't be higher than it is today. The Twins claim to have pitching depth and if they can move him and get a something that helps them in the long run, they should. I think they can win the central without Gray.

If Gray's season stats are going to regress why is anyone giving value in a trade?

And I'd be pretty good with Gray for the rest of 2023 and a 1 yr, $20m contract for 2024, if he accepts the QO.

I'd say there's a high likelihood that's worth more than the prospect(s) you get in return, while throwing Varland, Kuechel or worse into 2023's rotation. 

[Mike Sixel]

32 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

If Gray's season stats are going to regress why is anyone giving value in a trade?

And I'd be pretty good with Gray for the rest of 2023 and a 1 yr, $20m contract for 2024, if he accepts the QO.

I'd say there's a high likelihood that's worth more than the prospect(s) you get in return, while throwing Varland, Kuechel or worse into 2023's rotation. 

I think this is a fair take, but I disagree. This team can't win as built, and the FO has indicated, by action and words, that they won't change the offense. They have zero OF on the current MLB roster that will be on the roster next year. Given their track record, I don't trust them to fix that. So I sell. I get others disagree, and I'm not sure who's right.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

what does “urgency” look like to make a decision for JP?

Will JP give a sell order (or buy order) to Falvey by the trade deadline? Has he already? 

What might need to happen between July 14 and July 24 that might change the course of direction? Is July 24 the deadline?

[jkcarew]

On 7/10/2023 at 4:35 PM, gunnarthor said:

it looks like this is a patchwork team - both too young and too old at the same time. We have a few core players in their prime with nothing to support them. It's not clear if we should reload or rebuild. I think we should sell. I think we can still win the central without, for example, Gray. But reading this article, it seems more likely that Pohlad wants us to be buyers. Not sure that's a good thing. 

Your conclusions are spot on, IMO.

I get there just slightly differently. To me, there are HINTS of talent to ‘support’ the core. But the core really isn’t that good and/or available any more. Probably don’t need to tear it completely down, but need to get younger, not older. The team that just passed you in the standings is the youngest in the majors, and they’re already on par (at least) with the Twins. One-year rentals put us further behind…and this roster shows zero signs of being “one player away”…or two or three unless a couple are true stars.

 

[nicksaviking]

I think Gray's value to us and the Twins is likely higher than the rest of the league. Sure, they could probably get better value back than a QO, but I don't know if they'd get THAT much better value back. Teams don't give up a ton for rentals any longer, and while we'd certainly rate Gray as the best available trade chip, I don't know that he's that far removed form Giolito or Jordan Montgomery that teams wouldn't pivot to those guys if the Twins are asking too much. Heck, due to Giolito's higher upside and Montgomery's left-handedness, there are likely some teams that would actually prefer one of those two.

[jkcarew]

37 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So I sell. I get others disagree, and I'm not sure who's right.

Same.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

If Gray's season stats are going to regress why is anyone giving value in a trade?

And I'd be pretty good with Gray for the rest of 2023 and a 1 yr, $20m contract for 2024, if he accepts the QO.

I'd say there's a high likelihood that's worth more than the prospect(s) you get in return, while throwing Varland, Kuechel or worse into 2023's rotation. 

Why can't the twins get an equivalent or better and younger free agent next year?  Why would we assume they would be forced to use Kuechel or Varland?

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Why can't the twins get an equivalent or better and younger free agent next year?  Why would we assume they would be forced to use Kuechel or Varland?

"while throwing Varland, Kuechel or worse into 2023's rotation"

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Why can't the twins get an equivalent or better and younger free agent next year?  Why would we assume they would be forced to use Kuechel or Varland?

I'd be all for getting Nola, Urias, Giolito or Montgomery to fill out the rotation next year. But, while this team has been spending lately, they still aren't spending on free agent pitchers of note. Any pitcher agreeing to a short contract length the Twins like, would have to have giant question marks, and the Twins have all but confirmed they'll never give the number of years it would take to get one of the guys I want.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd be all for getting Nola, Urias, Giolito or Montgomery to fill out the rotation next year. But, while this team has been spending lately, they still aren't spending on free agent pitchers of note. Any pitcher agreeing to a short contract length the Twins like, would have to have giant question marks, and the Twins have all but confirmed they'll never give the number of years it would take to get one of the guys I want.

So your stance is Giolito isn't taking 1/$20 from the Twins?

 

 

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

So your stance is Giolito isn't taking 1/$20 from the Twins?

 

 

Even if the Twins offered 3/90M, he'll still take the 5/125M or 6/140M deal.

[wabene]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

NYT moderates their comments, just like Twins Daily does. Not sure if the Strib does, but my guess is, no

Not to derail, but the Strib is the most aggressively moderated site I've come across. When you post it is moderated before it's displayed. You don't know if or when it will be displayed. It's hard to have a flowing conversation, which actually might explain things.

[Linus]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

We don't see much of what they do.  How do you judge actions when you have minimal knowledge of what led to those actions? As sports fans we tend to speak with great certainty about these things when we don't have nearly enough information in most cases to judge things like hiring and firing.

I am referring to line up changes trades calling guys up. Also showing an ability to change course.

[Azviking101]

4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I know the game has changed but QO is going to be around 20m next year. I'm not sure how many teams are going to want to lose the draft pick and spend that much money on a pitcher who will be 34 next year and probably throws only 130 or so innings. 

Gray is not a 150 ERA+ pitcher. He's been coming back to earth since April and his season stats will, likely, end up reflecting that. His trade value won't be higher than it is today. The Twins claim to have pitching depth and if they can move him and get a something that helps them in the long run, they should. I think they can win the central without Gray.

Of course they should be able to win the central without gray. Just in time to get swept in the playoffs. Is making the playoffs the only thing you value? Who’s this great 5th starter to come up and fill Gray’s spot? It’s not Varland or SWR. What’s the playoff 3 rotation going to look like? 
 

Gray, Lopez, Ryan is a good playoff rotation and capable of winning a playoff series even without a top 10 offense. 
Trade Gray and it becomes a below average playoff rotation with no hopes outside of a sweep

[gunnarthor]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

If Gray's season stats are going to regress why is anyone giving value in a trade?

And I'd be pretty good with Gray for the rest of 2023 and a 1 yr, $20m contract for 2024, if he accepts the QO.

I'd say there's a high likelihood that's worth more than the prospect(s) you get in return, while throwing Varland, Kuechel or worse into 2023's rotation. 

He's had a 3.90 or higher ERA every month since April. He is what he is - a solid #3 pitcher on a playoff team. That has some real value. But 20m usually goes to better pitchers than him. And, you're right. He could come back to the Twins on a QO, although I don't think that is money well spent. I don't think a team is going to sign him and lose a pick.

So, in my opinion - and I understand that it is reasonable to disagree - the Twins can trade him now for something or pay him 20m to be on the team next year. I don't like the second option at all. 

[Major League Ready]

14 minutes ago, Linus said:

I am referring to line up changes trades calling guys up. Also showing an ability to change course.

10-4.  My bad.  

[gunnarthor]

2 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

Of course they should be able to win the central without gray. Just in time to get swept in the playoffs. I making the playoffs the only thing you value? Who’s this great 5th starter to come up and fill Gray’s spot? It’s not Varland or SWR. What’s the playoff 3 rotation going to look like? 
 

Gray, Lopez, Ryan is a good playoff rotation. 
Trade Gray and it becomes a below average playoff rotation . 

shrug.

This team is currently sub-.500. Might be a bit to hope that they make noise in the playoffs with or without Gray. I like Lopez and Ryan. I like Ober - although he's not going to continue a 166 ERA+. They have too many problems right now.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

"while throwing Varland, Kuechel or worse into 2023's rotation"

I am not focused on an immediate fix for a very mediocre team.  We heard the same rhetoric last year about our 1st place team.  Had we not made a short-sighted decision to trade for Mahle, we would have a very good 3B in Steer (cheap) for the remainder of this year and 5 more years.  We could call up CES to play 1st and send Kirilloff to the OF.  With 3B filled we could ask Lewis if he wants to play CF or remain in AAA until a spot opens up.   Obviously, CES is untested at this level but he has been an absolute elite hitter at all levels.  We would also have Cano in our BP had we decided not to buy last year.  

[Major League Ready]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

I would only trade Gray for a great return but I am also not focused on an immediate fix for a very mediocre team.  We heard the same rhetoric last year about our 1st place team.  Had we not made a short-sighted decision to trade for Mahle, we would have a very good 3B in Steer (cheap) for the remainder of this year and 5 more years.  We could call up CES to play 1st and send Kirilloff to the OF.  With 3B filled we could ask Lewis if he wants to play CF or remain in AAA until a spot opens up.   Obviously, CES is untested at this level but he has been an absolute elite hitter at all levels.  We would also have Cano in our BP had we decided not to buy last year.  

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd be all for getting Nola, Urias, Giolito or Montgomery to fill out the rotation next year. But, while this team has been spending lately, they still aren't spending on free agent pitchers of note. Any pitcher agreeing to a short contract length the Twins like, would have to have giant question marks, and the Twins have all but confirmed they'll never give the number of years it would take to get one of the guys I want.

You are definitely right on the historical account.  However, they have spent more boldly of late.  Perhaps more importantly, they have not had this much young (cheap) talent in a very long time and that facilitates bolder spending on an important piece.  In other words, they might be willing to do something they normally would not do.

It also does not have to be $180M type talent.  The Rays got Eflin for 3/$40M.  Keeping in mind Gray's last 10 starts have been pretty pedestrian and his age, I am just not all that confident he is a major difference maker in 24 and beyond.

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You are definitely right on the historical account.  However, they have spent more boldly of late.  Perhaps more importantly, they have not had this much young (cheap) talent in a very long time and that facilitates bolder spending on an important piece.  In other words, they might be willing to do something they normally would not do.

It also does not have to be $180M type talent.  The Rays got Eflin for 3/$40M.  Keeping in mind Gray's last 10 starts have been pretty pedestrian and his age, I am just not all that confident he is a major difference maker in 24 and beyond.

I don't want an aging Gray, but suggesting they replace him with a bottom budget Pat Eflin type AND expect it to pay off, is going to piss everyone off, and rightly so. 

[LastOnePicked]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

What's your point?  Would you prefer they did not acknowledge they are failing and need to do something about it?  

I won't speak for Garv, but my answer is yes. I don't need any more talk from this team at this point. Talk is for the offseason. There comes a point when "owning up" to one's ongoing failures is just a self-protection ritual. I don't care to hear a single member of this organization speak any further about the team's shortcomings. They either find ways to win or they don't.