The Twins are the worst hitters with the bases loaded

[Shobae]

After the bases loaded masterclass of the 7th inning against Chicago, in the 4-6 defeat yesterday, I wanted to put to the test my opinion that the twins are choke masters with the bases loaded. Turns out the numbers confirm this opinion, as the Twins own an impressive .112 woba with the bases loaded through May 3rd (30 PA). How do they do it, you may ask yourself. Well, how about 0 extra base hits, a 3.3% walk rate and a .125 batting average to do the trick. So, in the first month of the season when the bases are loaded the twins line up turns into a slumping high A hitter. Now one might say "well there's no way their .125 babip is sustainable" true they haven't been lucky but even if they regressed back to a .270 babip they'd maybe be able to climb out of the celler and into 27th place behind the famed sluggers in cleveland. 

Now where this gets interesting is when we look at their woba with runners in scoring position. "Oh god I don't want to know" you say, but dear reader I present you with the 2nd best lineup in MLB  with runners in scoring position. That's right, the Twins have a .391 woba with runners in scoring position, only to bested by the Texas Rangers. A robust .290 batting average with a 11.3% walk rate and .254 ISO makes that happen. I must admit when I first saw this on Fangraphs I thought that either that either I had made a mistake with my splits settings or the website was wrong. But fangraphs is very reliable and after seeing the bases loaded splits I'm going to assume this is right. So how is it possible that a team with a .391 woba with RISP is beyond awful with the bases loaded?

Well a few thoughts, First, is the nature of small sample sizes which can produce these kinds of extreme results. Second, is that bases loaded only accounts for 11.3% of the Twins RISP PAs so it's not hard for this to be the case. Third, is the boom or bust nature of this offense that will score a ton of runs some games and then be complete cold in others. That creates a sampling bias in fans like myself who remember all the choking but properly weigh it with all the good performances. Finally, looking at their woba in high leverage situations, which I assume would include more bases loaded PAs than just RISP (total of 116 vs 266 PA), it's an expectedly low .236. Good for 28th in the majors. So it looks like the twins become peak Barry Bonds with RISP in low and medium leverage situations and then Sandy Leon in high leverage situations. 

How do you fix this issue? Well I don't think such a massive disparity between their total team woba, .314 17th overall, and bases loaded woba will persist through a full season. However, if they don't start changing something in their approach I would not be surprised if they are still in the bottom 6 team for bases loaded performance this season. The same goes for high leverage performance. Perhaps the plan from Rocco should be to avoid loading the bases at all costs. Correa comes up with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs? DO NOT walk, DO NOT hit an infield single, DO NOT force an error from the defense. Striking out and any other kind of out is a far desirable outcome to any of those. If someone has any ins to the twins FO/coaches please rely them this information, it will most certainly boost runs scored.

(explainer for non sabermetrically savvy people: Weighted On Base Average is an offensive stat that tells you a players entire offensive contribution at the plate, by using linear weights to calculate the run value of each outcome, ie 2B = 1.27 runs. It's adjusted to the same scale as on base percentage so you're intuitions about obp can be applied to woba, .319 is league average currently.)    

[stringer bell]

They've been epically bad with the sacks juiced. I remember one hit--Kyle Farmer's walk-off 10 hopper up the middle, apparently there are a couple more. Also, so many strikeouts.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Also, so many strikeouts.

That could be selective memory.  b-r.com shows 30 Twins plate appearances with the bases loaded, and 5 strikeouts.  The majors as a whole strike out 24.5% of the time in that situation so far this season.  Make of that what you will.  I think it still comes back to small sample sizes, when looking for answers.

Yet I do believe there is a problem underlying the results.  No, I don't know how to frame it as yet.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That could be selective memory.  b-r.com shows 30 Twins plate appearances with the bases loaded, and 5 strikeouts.  The majors as a whole strike out 24.5% of the time in that situation so far this season.  Make of that what you will.  I think it still comes back to small sample sizes, when looking for answers.

Yet I do believe there is a problem underlying the results.  No, I don't know how to frame it as yet.

Agreed, I too think the OP is on to something, but too SSS to draw conclusions yet.

I like wOBA as a metric for the situation. Avoid an out better than the rest of the league.

[ashbury]

Just now, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I like wOBA as a metric for the situation.

I rarely see much daylight between woba and ops+ as tools for analysis.

[Brock Beauchamp]

20 hours ago, ashbury said:

I rarely see much daylight between woba and ops+ as tools for analysis.

Yep. I tend to lean toward wRC+ and wOBA but OPS+ is just fine. As you said, they generally agree with one another anyway.

I suspect wOBA gets there faster than wRC+ or OPS+ but you're dealing with such small sample sizes in those cases that one should be skeptical of every metric (as is the case here).

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yep. I tend to lean toward wRC+ and wOBA but OPS+ is just fine. As you said, they generally agree with one another anyway.

I suspect wOBA gets there faster than wRC+ or OPS+ but you're dealing with such small sample sizes in those cases that one should be skeptical of every metric (as is the case here).

I have a lot of respect for Brock and Ashbury in regards to their informed analysis of the stats. But as an old school fan, I have to admit that most of these advanced stats, or sabermetrics, still make my head spin. Try as I might, I still can't get my head around most of this stuff. But in any case, keep it coming, I might eventually learn something!

[Rik19753]

While I'm too lazy to look it up myself, I'd like to know how the Twins have performed in all high leverage situations in the last couple of years. It seems to me that the Twins perpetually fail in high-pressure situations, which has led to the prolonged postseason losing streak and the abysmal records against teams like the Yankees.

IMO there just aren't, and haven't been, many players on the Twins that instill confidence when the game is on the line. Arraez was one of the few players that didn't seem to be fazed by those big moments, but obviously he is gone now. I thought Correa would be that figure, but that still hasn't happened. Buxton has come through sometimes, but I don't think he is particularly "clutch". I think we really need players that are confident enough in themselves to embrace those high-pressure situations, like some of the younger stars of the game do. The Twins seem to have too many nice guys that are humble and self-doubting. While I value those traits in the people that I interact with, when it comes to players, I think some level of arrogance and overconfidence is necessary.

[stringer bell]

I don't have the numbers either, but Jorge Polanco has been very good in game situations and Miranda showed a flair for that last season. I would agree that thus far Correa (as a Twin) has been underwhelming and that Buxton has had moments, but hasn't been outstanding in high leverage at-bats. 

[Rik19753]

11 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don't have the numbers either, but Jorge Polanco has been very good in game situations and Miranda showed a flair for that last season. I would agree that thus far Correa (as a Twin) has been underwhelming and that Buxton has had moments, but hasn't been outstanding in high leverage at-bats. 

Yeah, Polanco has been great in those situations. He completely slipped my mind. 

[Aerodeliria]

I agree about Polanco. He seems the most unfazed at the plate in those situations. As for the others, a bit more patience in high leverage situations would be prudent. Miranda becomes quite aggressive in those situations. How about waiting for a strike on such occasions?

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

While I'm too lazy to look it up myself, I'd like to know how the Twins have performed in all high leverage situations in the last couple of years. It seems to me that the Twins perpetually fail in high-pressure situations, which has led to the prolonged postseason losing streak and the abysmal records against teams like the Yankees.

IMO there just aren't, and haven't been, many players on the Twins that instill confidence when the game is on the line. Arraez was one of the few players that didn't seem to be fazed by those big moments, but obviously he is gone now. I thought Correa would be that figure, but that still hasn't happened. Buxton has come through sometimes, but I don't think he is particularly "clutch". I think we really need players that are confident enough in themselves to embrace those high-pressure situations, like some of the younger stars of the game do. The Twins seem to have too many nice guys that are humble and self-doubting. While I value those traits in the people that I interact with, when it comes to players, I think some level of arrogance and overconfidence is necessary.

Here's season by season stats for high leverage situations. Minimum 10 PAs in shortened seasons, 20 in longer.

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I have a lot of respect for Brock and Ashbury in regards to their informed analysis of the stats. But as an old school fan, I have to admit that most of these advanced stats, or sabermetrics, still make my head spin. Try as I might, I still can't get my head around most of this stuff. But in any case, keep it coming, I might eventually learn something!

It still comes down to Ws and Ls.

Everything else, batting average and ERA included, boil down to just trying to understand where those Ws come from.  But none of them actually replace the Ws.

[Eris]

The Twins have the third worst team batting average at 0.225.  This corresponds to the third worst BABIP. They are tied with SF for the most SO.  They are also 25th in OBP. These are not the stats of a team that would be expected to do well when they have an opportunity to score a run. At some level strike outs and the ability to get a base hit matter. 

[Blyleven2011]

I've been preaching a killer instinct  or the lack of it for years ...

Worst clutch hitting I have seen since 2019 , they do seem to choke in high leverage situations  and someone has to teach them that  high strikeouts per games are non productive , a bunt is more productive if it moves the runner up a base into scoring position , job is done and left for the next batter to get a clutch hit  ...

Striking out is giving the opponents  an easy out and not productive  , putting the ball in play and forcing the defense to make the play or force an error is productive ... 

We need a better strategy from our field manager and coaches  , bring it back and play ball  ...

[Rosterman]

Just getting the bases loaded a certain number of times should speak well for a team.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Just getting the bases loaded a certain number of times should speak well for a team.

At last check there have been 962 bases loaded situations in the majors this year, or about 32 per team.  The Twins have had 33 such situations, so basically league average.  Being average isn't what I'd call speaking well.

And the league is batting .268 in those situations (better than the .247 overall) while we're at .154.

I do not know how to speak well of any of this.  I can pray that it's small sample size.