4 Closer Candidates for the 2023 Twins

[Cody Christie]

No Twins pitcher had more than nine saves during the 2022 season. Will that trend change in 2023, and who are the candidates for late-inning opportunities?

Image courtesy of Dave Nelson (Jax), Joe Nicholson (Pagan), Aaron Josefczyk (Duran)-USA TODAY Sports

Bullpen usage continues to evolve, with some teams not relying on one player to fulfill a traditional closer's role. The Twins had nine players earn at least one save last season, including Emilio Pagan (9 saves), Jhoan Duran (8 saves), and Jorge Lopez (4 saves). All three players are back on the Opening Day roster, so who will lead the Twins in saves during the 2023 season?

The Projected Closer: Jorge Lopez
Lopez was an All-Star closer with the Orioles before being acquired by the Twins at the 2022 trade deadline. He struggled after being acquired by the Twins with a 4.37 ERA and an 18-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22 2/3 innings. Ideally, the Twins likely want him to be used in a more traditional closer role because that gives the team more flexibility with their usage of other bullpen arms. If Lopez leads the team in saves, many things have gone right for the Twins. It likely means his performance is closer to what he did with Baltimore before the trade. Lopez made three scoreless appearances in the World Baseball Classic, so the Twins hope he is back on track for an improved 2023. 

The Weapon: Jhoan Duran
Duran will get save opportunities, especially if the opposition's best hitters are due up in the ninth inning. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that he daydreams "about [Duran] closing big games for us." During the 2022 season, he showcased why he is one of baseball's best relievers. In 67 2/3 innings, he posted a 1.86 ERA with an 89-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He collected more than three outs in 14 of his 57 appearances, with ten appearances lasting two innings. It will be hard for him to replicate those numbers, but he continues to refine his pitches and get more comfortable at the big-league level. 

The Proven Closer: Emilio Pagan
Entering last season, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers to the Padres for Emilio Pagan and Chris Paddack. Pagan was included in the deal to give the Twins another late-inning option. He struggled in the first half when being used in a closer role. In 34 games (32 2/3 innings), he had a 5.23 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a 48-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Twins moved him to lower leverage roles in the second half, and he dropped his ERA to 3.56, but his strikeout rate dropped from 13.2 K/9 to 10.7 K/9. It seems unlikely for Pagan to get many save opportunities in 2023, but he has accumulated 31 total saves in his six-year big-league career. 

The Wild Card: Griffin Jax
Duran wasn't the only young pitcher to transition from a starter to a reliever in 2022. Jax was among the few bright spots in the Twins bullpen with a 3.36 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9. He was one of a handful of Twins pitchers that went to Driveline Baseball this winter to work on new pitches and refined mechanics. Jax added a cut-fastball, and the results have been outstanding this spring. He has allowed one run in six scoreless appearances and struck out nine batters. He also believes he can add more velocity this season to his fastball, which averaged just over 95 mph in 2022. Jax used his slider over 48% of the time in 2022, but a fastball closer to triple-digits is a scary proposition for opposing batters. 

Who do you think will lead the Twins in saves this season? Will any players have more than ten saves? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[CRF]

Has to be Duran. Lopez next, if Duran is unavailable. To even mention Pagan closing games, is beyond insane. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It would be absolutely ideal if it works out (as you say) with Jorge Lopez in a somewhat traditional closers role. That means that Duran and Jax are likely able to duplicate last years numbers, Thielbar has another season left in the tank, and Alcala and Moran take a step forward. THAT would be a top ten bullpen!  And look, I haven’t even mentioned he shall not be named!

[weitz41]

Wow, putting he who shall not be named on the list is a gutsy move. 

[gman]

I agree that traditional closer position is more a thing of the past, but I don't see Pagan leading the team with 9 saves this year. I do see Duran working out as the bailout reliever although he may still lead the team in saves. He probably won't come close to being a league leader in the saves category, unless other relievers on the staff are super good in their support roles. If that's the case, the Twins would probably wind up with the best relief staff in baseball.

[nicksaviking]

I’m not sure about Pagan, but I think the others will be fun to watch this year.

I think Winder will end up on the list sometime this year. Like the other former starters, I think his velocity will play up in full time relief, and he’s got a good slider and control.

[Karbo]

I would feel the most comfortable with Duran coming in to close out the 9th. Think Nathan. They could then use Lopez as the "fireman" to get out of tight spots in the 7th or 8th.

[minman1982]

I honestly don't see a problem with the closer by committee model. Put your best pitchers in the most impactful spots of the game. That isn't always starting the ninth inning. I would fine with Lopez, Duran, or Jax in this role depending on the situation. Maybe even give Alcala a chance or two. 

[Boswell]

“He Who Shall Not Be Named” is The Failed Closer, not The Proven Closer… 31 saves in 6 years is just from a hodgepodge of opportunities and a few completions. 
 

I do wish to vouch for Cory Provus and his own honesty in the booth - at the end of that no good, terrible, very bad series in Cleveland in _July_ (as opposed to September), upon yet another walk-off delivered by Our Guy, - Cory let us all know, “And I’m Going to PUKE!”  
 

Twins baseball 2022.  Good times. 
 

 

[Bodie]

5 hours ago, CRF said:

Has to be Duran. Lopez next, if Duran is unavailable. To even mention Pagan closing games, is beyond insane. 

"The Proven Closer: Emilio Pagan"

I was baffled when I saw saw his name mentioned at the beginning of the article, but when I saw the above subheading I just quit...

[old nurse]

I don’t think there will be a true closer. Baldelli will use the best relievers on the heart of the order rather than by what inning it is. As a 3 run lead gets the last pitcher a save there might be quite a few pitchers with saves. Sands as a long reliever could lead the team in saves. 

[DocBauer]

Honestly, I never would have included Pagan in the article. Just because he has 30 career saves doesn't mean he should ever be in that position again. And frankly, history indicates such. Here's hoping he can be a good 2 inning middle man similar to late last year.

If Jax was going to included, I would have placed Alcala in the OP over Pagan. 

I'm responding after the win against the Royals. I was GOING to say I think Lopez will be the primary closer and Duran the highest leverage pitcher and they would probably save about 25 and 15 each, Lopez obviously with the higher total.

Do we place stock in how they were used today? Or am I correct in my original thoughts and today was the right day for Duran to close?

I really like both guys and am going to stick with my original prediction of usage and save splits.

[LewFordLives]

Duran is the closer. 

[High heat]

I like the strategy of using Durán late in games against the tough part of the order. If that’s the 7th 8th or 9th I don’t care.  Then using López or Jax as the traditional 9th inning guy to end the game.

If we do t have a 5 run lead or more I’m not comfortable seeing Pagán!!

[stringer bell]

Right now, the three highest-level relievers are J. Lopez, Duran and Thielbar. Jax could be included, but hasn't really been used in many (if any) ninth inning save situations. I think the Twins might have six guys with highest leverage stuff--those already mentioned plus Moran and Alcala. 

Maybe it's PTSD from last year, but I can't fathom Pagan being near a close game in the ninth inning. 

[dxpavelka]

It would be a colossal mistake if anyone other than Duran is the closer.  Almost as colossal as not giving him a shot to be the ace at  the top of the rotation. 

[Shobae]

I would be rather surprised to see the Twins have a dedicated closer under Baldelli's management, though the only reason I'm not thinking this is completely unlikely is because there seemingly has been some rumbling about Duran being in a more traditional closer role. But I still think that the bullpen will be deployed based on leverage index and match ups. If that happens to align with Duran getting the most "saves" (dumb stat) then that's not surprising. But I don't assume he will religiously get the 9th