2021 AL Wild Card race

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, the AL Wild Card race is pretty much the only race left in the MLB regular season, but it is shaping up to be pretty interesting!

Standings as of Thursday, September 30:

TEAM	W	L	PCT	WCBG	COIN FLIP ODDS	REMAINING SCHEDULE
Yankees	90	68	.570	+1.0	86.3%	1 at TOR; 3 vs TB
Red Sox	89	69	.563	--	61.5%	1 at BAL; 3 at WSH
Mariners	89	70	.560	0.5	33.6%	3 vs LAA
Blue Jays	88	70	.557	1.0	18.6%	1 vs NYY; 3 vs BAL

Relevant games tonight (all on MLB.TV):

1. BOS (Pivetta) at BAL (A. Wells), 6:05 PM CDT 
2. NYY (Kluber) at TOR (Ray), 6:07 PM CDT
3. SEA is off

[Vanimal46]

I’m rooting for a postseason without the Yankees and Red Sox. Give us parity! 

[chpettit19]

Will be interesting to see what TB does with their 3 games against NY. With the division locked up I'd assume they're more worried about setting up their pitching for round 1 than they are beating the Yankees. Without that they'd be facing the toughest last series, but TB being more focused on the playoffs may make that series closer to the difficulty of playing the Nats, Angels, or O's like the other 3. Or maybe TB really doesn't want to face NY in the playoffs and they come out and look to step on their throats and sweep them to give the other 3 good shots at both wild card spots. Big game for Toronto tonight.

[MMMordabito]

Tonight, it's gotta be "Go Birds!"

I'll be watching Joe Ryan tonight, but the AL East games will be the viewing for the weekend.  

Robbie Ray should be able to secure the Cy with a solid winning effort tonight.  I will be rooting for that as well.  

[Danchat]

I’m shocked the Mariners are still in it. Their roster is not good and their hitting and pitching both look below average on paper, yet here they are. It’s inexplicable that they’re a good 13/15 games ahead of the Twins.

[MABB1959]

I am Toronto.  It is fun to feel like this about each game.  Berrios was amazing last night

 

[bean5302]

26 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I’m shocked the Mariners are still in it. Their roster is not good and their hitting and pitching both look below average on paper, yet here they are. It’s inexplicable that they’re a good 13/15 games ahead of the Twins.

I think it's more inexplicable the Yankees have the record they do and are in the playoffs if the season ended today. The playoff race is super exciting this year, though. Everything is up in the air!

[Otto von Ballpark]

37 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I’m shocked the Mariners are still in it. Their roster is not good and their hitting and pitching both look below average on paper, yet here they are. It’s inexplicable that they’re a good 13/15 games ahead of the Twins.

 

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think it's more inexplicable the Yankees have the record they do and are in the playoffs if the season ended today. The playoff race is super exciting this year, though. Everything is up in the air!

By Pythag, the Mariners are an incredible +14 wins on the season -- they've actually been outscored by 48 runs overall!

The Yankees are also Pythag over-performers, but a more reasonable +6 wins.

(And Toronto is a Pythag under-performer, at minus-7 wins.)

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

 

By Pythag, the Mariners are an incredible +14 wins on the season -- they've actually been outscored by 48 runs overall!

The Yankees are also Pythag over-performers, but a more reasonable +6 wins.

(And Toronto is a Pythag under-performer, at minus-7 wins.)

Yeah, I hear you on that. I was taking into consideration the division the Yankees play in. There are 4 good teams there and the Yankees are below the other 3 vs. 2 good teams in the AL West. Plus I dislike the Yankees far more so I can't allow myself to give them credit for anything haha

[Squirrel]

I want the Mariners and Blue Jays to win all their remaining games the Yankees and Red Sox to get beat up on by their opponents

[glunn]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

I want the Mariners and Blue Jays to win all their remaining games the Yankees and Red Sox to get beat up on by their opponents

Amen to that!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, the Orioles did their part, beating the Red Sox tonight. So the Mariners and Red Sox are now tied for the 2nd wild card.

The Jays, however, lost to the Yankees. The Jays remain 1 game out of the 2nd spot, and the Yankees remain 2 games in the lead.

[MN_ExPat]

11 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Well, the Orioles did their part, beating the Red Sox tonight. So the Mariners and Red Sox are now tied for the 2nd wild card.

The Jays, however, lost to the Yankees. The Jays remain 1 game out of the 2nd spot, and the Yankees remain 2 games in the lead.

Wish we could give two emojis here.

• Yeah for the Orioles ?
• Harrumph! for the Jays loosing to the Those Who Shall Not Be Named ?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Standings as of Friday, October 1:

TEAM	W	L	PCT	WCBG	COIN FLIP ODDS	REMAINING SCHEDULE
Yankees	91	68	.572	+2.0	97.8%	3 vs TB
Red Sox	89	70	.560	--	47.9%	3 at WSH
Mariners	89	70	.560	--	44.6%	3 vs LAA
Blue Jays	88	71	.553	1.0	9.7%	3 vs BAL

Relevant games tonight (all on MLB.TV):

1. BOS (Rodriguez) at WSN (Rogers), 6:05 PM CDT 
2. TBR (McClanahan) at NYY (Cortes), 6:05 PM CDT
3. BAL (Eshelman) at TOR (Matz), 6:07 PM CDT
4. LAA (Suarez) at SEA (Gonzalez), 9:10 PM CDT

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fun article on the Mariners and all of the tiebreaker possibilities over at Fangraphs today

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/team-entropy-2021-dial-m-for-mariners/

The Jays made this difficult with their loss last night, but the wildest scenario is if the Jays sweep the Orioles, the Yankees get swept by the Rays, and Boston and Seattle each win 2 out of 3. Then it's a 4-way tie for the 2 wild card spots! Very unlikely, though (less than 1% odds).

A two-way tie for the 2nd wild card spot is about 27% likely at this point, and a 3-way tie is about 8%.

[Squirrel]

While very unlikely, I want the Jays and Mariners to win their 3 remaining, and the Red Sox and Yankees to lose their remaining 3. While I think the Mariners could sweep the Angels, and the Jays could sweep the O's ... I don't see the Red Sox and Yankees losing all three. I don't see their opponents giving them that much, especially the Rays who have nothing to gain by going 'all out' against the Yankees. The Nationals could be spoilers, but I still don't see them sweeping the BoSox.

[James]

11 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Fun article on the Mariners and all of the tiebreaker possibilities over at Fangraphs today

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/team-entropy-2021-dial-m-for-mariners/

The Jays made this difficult with their loss last night, but the wildest scenario is if the Jays sweep the Orioles, the Yankees get swept by the Rays, and Boston and Seattle each win 2 out of 3. Then it's a 4-way tie for the 2 wild card spots! Very unlikely, though (less than 1% odds).

A two-way tie for the 2nd wild card spot is about 27% likely at this point, and a 3-way tie is about 8%.

I'm really hoping for the 4 way tie!  How great would that be?

[Cap'n Piranha]

49 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

While very unlikely, I want the Jays and Mariners to win their 3 remaining, and the Red Sox and Yankees to lose their remaining 3. While I think the Mariners could sweep the Angels, and the Jays could sweep the O's ... I don't see the Red Sox and Yankees losing all three. I don't see their opponents giving them that much, especially the Rays who have nothing to gain by going 'all out' against the Yankees. The Nationals could be spoilers, but I still don't see them sweeping the BoSox.

The only thing the Rays have to gain by sweeping the Yanks is potentially knocking them out entirely.  That's such a low probability that I don't think they seriously pursue it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rays try and win tonight, see what tomorrow looks like, and adjust accordingly.

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The only thing the Rays have to gain by sweeping the Yanks is potentially knocking them out entirely.  That's such a low probability that I don't think they seriously pursue it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rays try and win tonight, see what tomorrow looks like, and adjust accordingly.

I can't disagree with that thought or sentiment, but I just have a feeling that deep down a lot of the Rays' players would love to stick it to the They Who Shall Not Be Named and finish the season on an emphatic note.  Not saying that Kevin Cash will sell out to finish off the They Who Shall Not Be Named, but... just a feeling I have. ?‍♂️?

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 hours ago, James said:

I'm really hoping for the 4 way tie!  How great would that be?

The 4-way tie, across 2 wild card spots, would actually have a fairly straightforward resolution -- and might be a peek into how MLB would like to expand the postseason? They'd simply take two of the tied teams and have them play a "game 163" tiebreaker against each other, and do the same for the other two teams. After that, the winners of the two tiebreaker games would advance to the official "wild card" game.

Not that I would endorse such an expansion, although it would be fun to see it happen by ties this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fascinating games so far tonight! And mostly the desired outcomes here.  Toronto led 6-0 but barely held on to win vs the Orioles. The Yankees mounted a comeback but fell just short in a loss vs Tampa Bay.

Robles made things interesting but Boston ultimately prevailed over Washington too.

Seattle’s game is just underway, we will see if they can keep pace.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, Seattle lost late last night, so now the Yankees and Red Sox are both in the driver's seat.

Standings as of Saturday, October 2:

TEAM	W	L	PCT	WCBG	COIN FLIP ODDS	REMAINING SCHEDULE
Yankees	91	69	.569	+1.0	95.9%	2 vs TB
Red Sox	90	70	.563	--	74.4%	2 at WSH
Blue Jays	89	71	.556	1.0	15.0%	2 vs BAL
Mariners	89	71	.556	1.0	14.7%	2 vs LAA

Relevant games today (all on MLB.TV):

1. TBR (Baz) at NYY (Montgomery), 12:05 PM CDT 
2. BAL (Means) at TOR (Manoah), 2:07 PM CDT
3. BOS (TBD) at WSN (Gray), 3:05 PM CDT
4. LAA (Diaz) at SEA (Flexen), 8:10 PM CDT

[MN_ExPat]

Yankees getting crushed so far today .

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, the Rays and Jays are certainly doing their parts! Both won again today (and won big).

Boston is leading 1-0 late, Seattle still on tap for tonight.

[Mark G]

The right combination falls into place Sunday, and we could have 4 teams tied for 2 wild card spots.  Not that it is going to happen, but wouldn't it be fun if it did?  And if LA and SF had to go to a game 163?  Have fun Sunday!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Great comeback by Seattle last night — it is really a delight to listen to their games with sold-out crowds and amped-up announcers.

Standings as of Sunday, October 3:

TEAM	W	L	PCT	WCBG	COIN FLIP ODDS	REMAINING SCHEDULE
Yankees	91	70	.565	—	87.3%	1 vs TB
Red Sox	91	70	.565	--	79.7%	1 at WSH
Blue Jays	90	71	.559	1.0	16.3%	1 vs BAL
Mariners	90	71	.559	1.0	16.7%	1 vs LAA

Relevant games today (all on MLB.TV):

1. TBR (Wacha) at NYY (Taillon), 2:05 PM CDT 
2. BAL (Zimmermann) at TOR (Ryu), 2:07 PM CDT
3. BOS (Sale) at WSN (Adon), 2:05 PM CDT
4. LAA (Detmers) at SEA (Anderson), 2:10 PM CDT

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 9/30/2021 at 1:34 PM, Otto von Ballpark said:

By Pythag, the Mariners are an incredible +14 wins on the season -- they've actually been outscored by 48 runs overall!

The Yankees are also Pythag over-performers, but a more reasonable +6 wins.

(And Toronto is a Pythag under-performer, at minus-7 wins.)

Even more incredibly, the Mariners are +16 wins in BaseRuns.

[Brock Beauchamp]

30 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Great comeback by Seattle last night — it is really a delight to listen to their games with sold-out crowds and amped-up announcers.

 

Standings as of Sunday, October 3:

TEAM	W	L	PCT	WCBG	COIN FLIP ODDS	REMAINING SCHEDULE
Yankees	91	70	.565	—	87.3%	1 vs TB
Red Sox	91	70	.565	--	79.7%	1 at WSH
Blue Jays	90	71	.559	1.0	16.3%	1 vs BAL
Mariners	90	71	.559	1.0	16.7%	1 vs LAA

Relevant games today (all on MLB.TV):

1. TBR (Wacha) at NYY (Taillon), 2:05 PM CDT 
2. BAL (Zimmermann) at TOR (Ryu), 2:07 PM CDT
3. BOS (Sale) at WSN (Adon), 2:05 PM CDT
4. LAA (Detmers) at SEA (Anderson), 2:10 PM CDT

Vote chaos!

Mariners/Jays wins and Yankees/Boston losses give us a four-way tie.

Vote chaos!

[Otto von Ballpark]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Vote chaos!

Mariners/Jays wins and Yankees/Boston losses give us a four-way tie.

Vote chaos!

Actually, a 4 way tie would be pretty straightforward. 2 tiebreaker games one day, then the wild card game featuring the tiebreaker winners. Would be fun to watch, but not terribly chaotic.

A 3 way tie for the second wild-card spot would be most chaotic, at this point. After seeding them in A, B, and C designations, Team A would host Team B, then the winner of that game would have to play Team C, and finally the winner of that game would advance to the wild card game against the top wild card.

I think I prefer the 4-way tie because it's a little more fair -- I don't want two of the tied clubs forced to win 2 elimination games while the top wild card rests for a few days.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fangraphs helpfully has a tie probability page:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/coin-flip/tie-breaker

I like the "coin flip" odds at this point, with so few games remaining.

3-way tie for 1st and 2nd wild card: 12.4%
4-way tie for 1st and 2nd wild card: 6.3%
2-way tie for 2nd wild card: 25.0%
3-way tie for 2nd wild card: 12.6%